Record levels of complacency means market topping outIn this post, I have shown the put-call ratio which is a reliable measure of sentiment in the market. When everyone is optimistic, that's typically when the market tops out.
PCC trade ideas
Sentiment switch from panic to complacencyAfter the selloff in early August due to the Yen carry trade, panic levels exploded. However, over the past 3 weeks, the market is back to extreme complacency and that's not a good sign for the bulls.
Extreme complacency is a major warningThe analysis done here shows extreme complacency in the market which is indicating a top could be forming. When everyone is bullish you have to be worried.
Extreme Panic in Put/Call Ratio = Bottom in Equities soon?Yesterday's spike in the CBOE Put/Call Ratio brings it closer to the spikes seen during Covid fall and the December '22 bottom. This is a sign of extreme panic and we could be very near to the bottom in US Equities.
SPX as of 4th Oct closing = 4263.76
Pre FOMC quick takeAll in the video, I cover a few of the sectors and point out this area has been tough resistance for the market in the past. Noone seems to be expecting more problems with the banks, which to me is sort of strange as we don't know the full fall out yet.
Good luck tomorrow - FOMC at 2pm and 2:30 press conference!
PCC & QQQ: PUT TO CALL RATIO / MARKET BOTTOM NEARING???DESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have included an overlapping analysis of PCC which is a PUT TO CALL RATIO INDICATOR & QQQ a LEADING INDEX in the OVERALL MARKET.
POINTS:
1. A PUT TO CALL RATIO LEVEL OF 2:1 HAS ALWAYS BEEN INDICATIVE THAT A MARKET BOTTOM IS NEARING OR IN.
2. MACD is has officially shown a complete flip in buying to selling pressure by touching +0.1 and falling closer to -0.05.
3. RSI is showing a distinct decline seen in past market bottoms.
IMO: With an overabundance of overall bearish market sentiment and spikes being seen in PUT TO CALL RATIO INDICATORS FOR EQUITIES & INDICES it should be safe to bet that market bottoms occur when the majority of retail investors are buying PUTS as MARKET MAKERS would not allow their CONTRACTS to EXPIRE IN THE MONEY.
SCENARIO: Continuous spikes to 2 POINTS for PCC and above is most certainly a sign that a MARKET BOTTOM is in the making already.
FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com
USI:PCC
NASDAQ:QQQ
Is this level of pessimism justified ?The put/call ratio is at extreme levels which is reflecting a very pessimistic sentiment in the market. Typically, this indicator is to be used as a contrarian signal which means some sort of a major bottom could be forming over the next couple weeks.
PCC Ratio is looking BullishI have an alert for when the 10-day moving average falls below .8. The PCC spends most of its time between.8 and 1 when the 10 moving average falls below .8 you can count on a bearish reversal in the market. As of right now, we are above that with plenty of room. The reason why I bring this up now is that if we mid-term rally I'm looking for a strong bull push followed by a reversal before we trend. Setting an alert on the PCC for .8 and 1 crossovers will keep you on the right side of the market.
NASDAQ The Put/Call Ratio shows it's time to buy stocks NOW!This is another stock index long-term analysis and this time our focus is on the Nasdaq (NDX). For better illustration we are displaying the Nasdaq as a line instead of candles (black trend-line) and the Put/ Call Ratio (blue trend-line) on the 1W time-frame.
First let's explain what this ratio is. Basically it is the number of put options divided by the number of call options. This is an indicator that essentially illustrates the pessimism/ optimism in the market, what market participants (investors, traders, funds etc) feel is going to happen in the (near at least) future. When it is rising it means that there is a lot of pessimism and more people are betting on the downside and when it falls it illustrates that more people expect an upside.
For this analysis we've put the MA20 of the Put/ Call Ratio (PCR) as it filters the noise more efficiently. As you see, since the October 10 2011 High, every PCR peak is made on a Lower Highs trend-line (dashed line) and the price gets rejected. When that pull-back happens, it effectively gives us a confirmed signal to buy stocks. This time the peak on the Lower Highs trend-line took place on the June 13 candle and as you see it turned out to be the most optimal place to buy as the index rose aggressively. The current rise though on the PCR is naturally translated into a Nasdaq pull-back put since the 2009 financial crisis, this happened most of the times and didn't affect the long-term bullish trend.
So will you take advantage of this pull-back?
P.S. Because the chart has added elements (PCR, Nasdaq) plotted that are not stable on the axis, it may appear distorted based on your screen's/ browser dimensions. The original looks like this below, so if yours doesn't, adjust the vertical/ horizontal axis in order to make it look like this and better understand what is illustrated:
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i think put/call has peakedthis is another reason to think maybe there is some rebound in the works in index futures. puts have let off steam, and the general direction at this peak level is calls to return for indices futures.
SP500 with 50 Day MA Put/Call RatioVery interesting chart showing Put/Call ratio peaks above 1.0 which was plotted after watching a game of trades video. Has a high probability at indicating a bottom.
put/call near 1 after 0.64-1.2 moveput/call ratio cboe has hit the top of the band, entered short amd then trended toward the bottom band hit the top and then averaged out indicating there may be a peak of call activity followed by a return to heavy puts
PCC Spiking, Last Time was March 2020Wanted to get this posted for anyone who's got active trades open... particularly long positions.
$PCC above 1 is generally bearish, below 1 is generally bullish.... basically showing volume of Puts & Calls traded.
With Put trading spiking like this, extreme caution should be taken with tight stops.
PCC - Put call Ratio / CBOEROCs exploded once again.
Hopefully, this is squeezed hard off a further Extreme reading.
OR
It's off to 2.0ish as HappyCloud Suggested might happen...
www.tradingview.com
We're going to fail, but a FULL REVERSAL prior to failure... whopsawed,
but in tot he BUZZSAW again.
I'd count on it that whipsaw.
13.% looks to be in the offing for the next decline.
PCC - Options Volumes 71% DeclineLiquidity within Leveraged products was used to provide
a bid for the Underlying on Gamma/Delta.
With the overall decline in participation, we are seeing
Micro Range Squeezes develop when it is "Time".
Friday's trade was a run to Square, and with the Retail
Options players levered up in 420 Spy Calls... there was no
chance they would be paid.
The PCC remains useful although in a tighter range from .86
to 1.12.
Looking over the June 17s - "an Entity is looking for a deep correction of 20%+"
maximum-pain.com
put/call cboe looks like value to the downside crushedput call ratio is showing a daily period of distribution in put spread that could end up being bullish for the broader market
we have hit descending TRAMA and AO has turned negative so the trend is toward call
PCC - Gamma Squeeze or another TrapShould this fail... Look out below for the Indicies.
They would challenge lows.
This would quickly to an Inverse Gamma Squeeze on
all Calls...
PCC - Put call Ratio / Reliability has been a Solid Guide, accurate in the Extreme...
One exception remains the Higher end of the Range remains
open for a far Higher High.
Friday's Expiry was an excellent example of a PCC Squeeze
as rising from 1.1876 to 1.274 was an indication of Price having
a clear potential to run to close.
It did.
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Use it or lose it.
"Cheap" remains relative.
PCC - Rnages into Squeeze ZoneObserve VIX today, it will provide the indications.
Globex squeeze for ES arrives on time again.
Make or break Week.
Only 1 time in market history did we see 7 weeks
of down.
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Bulls need a bunch today.
It's FUF.
PCC - Call SqueezeWednesday's have become notorious for Options Whipsaw.
The Proles cannot be permitted to win.
Attempt to lever up, you'll be taken out of the trade.
PCC - Squeeze ZoneWorks every time.
Looking for an RT.
Use the PCC.
Quit guessing.
Don't be a chump.
PCC SqueezeAgain, the PCC @ 1.33 works to provide the Globex Index Squeeze.
Ahead of tomorrow's CPI we'll see where the ALgo's can stretch
the CT.
Happ Cloud for the Win ;)
PCC - Tom Lee JinxNever underestimate the lunacy of former JPM Alumni
Tom Lee.
The Cathy Wood of C N B C - Tom simply needs to STFU.
In January, Tom was concerned about the Markets after
Mid-Year...
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Market Liquidity is evaporating.
Volatility is expanding.
The Algos have been very careful to press the Sellers on
spikes in the Put/Call Ratio for the CBOE.
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Real Estate Ballon
Stock Market Bubble
Bond Market Beyond
So, VX intraday is used to keep everyone offsides and out
of the trades with extreme - wide-ranging swings.
Use the PCC to your advantage, it has worked quite well.
The range has been roughly 105 to 135 recently.
Trade safe and good luck.
