Bullish momentum to extend?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance, which lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection.
Pivot: 60.08
1st Support: 57.68
1st Resistance: 64.63
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USOIL trade ideas
WTI Crude Oil awaits inventoriesPrice Movement: WTI Crude trades around $62.70 per barrel, marking a fourth straight session of gains.
Main Bullish Driver: Geopolitical tensions — reports suggest Israel may strike Iran’s nuclear sites, sparking fears of supply disruption from Iran (OPEC’s 3rd largest producer).
Risk of Iran retaliating by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, which could disrupt exports from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and UAE.
Limiting Factor: Rising U.S. crude supply
API data shows a 2.49 million barrel build in U.S. crude stocks, defying expectations of a draw.
Traders await confirmation from EIA stockpile data later today.
Conclusion:
Bullish momentum is currently driven by Middle East tension, but gains may be capped if U.S. inventory builds continue. Traders should watch for EIA data release and further geopolitical developments.
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Will Middle East Tensions Ignite a Global Oil Crisis?The global oil market faces significant turbulence amidst reports of potential Israeli military action against Iran's nuclear facilities. This looming threat has triggered a notable surge in oil prices, reflecting deep market anxieties. The primary concern stems from the potential for severe disruption to Iran's oil output, a critical component of global supply. More critically, an escalation risks Iranian retaliation, including a possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime chokepoint through which a substantial portion of the world's oil transits. Such an event would precipitate an unprecedented supply shock, echoing historical price spikes seen during past Middle Eastern crises.
Iran currently produces around 3.2 million barrels per day and holds strategic importance beyond its direct volume. Its oil exports, primarily to China, serve as an economic lifeline, making any disruption profoundly impactful. A full-scale conflict would unleash a cascade of economic consequences: extreme oil price surges would fuel global inflation, potentially pushing economies into recession. While some spare capacity exists, a prolonged disruption or a Hormuz blockade would render it insufficient. Oil-importing nations, particularly vulnerable developing economies, would face severe economic strain, while major oil exporters, including Saudi Arabia, the US, and Russia, would see substantial financial gains.
Beyond economics, a conflict would fundamentally destabilize the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, unraveling diplomatic efforts and exacerbating regional tensions. Geostrategically, the focus would intensify on safeguarding critical maritime routes, highlighting the inherent vulnerabilities of global energy supply chains. Macroeconomically, central banks would confront the difficult task of managing inflation without stifling growth, leading to a surge in safe-haven assets. The current climate underscores the profound fragility of global energy markets, where geopolitical developments in a volatile region can have immediate and far-reaching global repercussions.
Bullish bounce?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) has bounced off the pivot, which acts as an overlap support that is slightly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 60.07
1st Support: 57.67
1st Resistance: 64.55
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
USOIL Today's Trading Strategy:Recently, there have been many developments in the crude oil market that affect the price trend. From the supply side, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) have been committed to production cuts to stabilize oil prices. Some member countries have even taken unexpected production - cutting actions, which has reduced the crude oil supply to a certain extent. Major oil - producing countries such as Saudi Arabia have cut their own crude oil production, sending a strong signal to the market to control the supply.
Meanwhile, the global crude oil demand has not declined significantly. With the gradual recovery of the global economy, industrial production activities in many countries have increased, and the demand for crude oil has also increased. In particular, some emerging economies have a relatively high - speed economic growth and a high degree of dependence on crude oil. Their growing demand strongly supports the crude oil price.
USOIL Today's Trading Strategy:
USOIL BUY@61~60.5
SL:60
TP:62.5~63
Oil: Elliott Wave WXY Pattern Signals Potential Shift🛢☕️ #OilInsteadOfCoffee | 📐 #TECHANALYSIS
Oil has not yet broken its upward trend, but it appears to have surpassed a local peak and formed a WXY pattern (a combination in Elliott Wave theory: W = flat, X = double zigzag, Y = single zigzag). The Y wave could still evolve into a triangle (blue) or a flat. We hold positions and await further developments.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
Our analysis is food for thought, not a call to action.
Trade with a cool head, a clear plan, and your own analysis.
Crude Oil Analysis 16-May-2025Crude oil analysis and what are the possible scenarios we could see.
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In - depth: USOIL 1 - hr Chart - Significance of 60.00 Support In the USOIL 1 - hour chart, 60.00 acts as a strong support 💪.
Support Validation
The price twice failed to break 60.00 and rebounded 📈. Psychologically, investors see 60.00 as a key level 🔑. Approaching it, buy orders pour in as they think crude oil is undervalued 📉. Technically, it's on a support line from prior lows, and repeated tests have fortified its support 🛡️.
⚡️⚡️⚡️ USOil ⚡️⚡️⚡️
🚀 Buy@ 60.00 - 60.60
🚀 TP 62.50 - 62.80
Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟 👇
WTI Oil H4 | Potential bullish bounceWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 60.44 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 57.60 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 63.68 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
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USOIL:Beware of pullback.The short-term trend of crude usoil continues to fluctuate and fall, hitting the 60 mark. Usoil prices gained some support at 60 and formed a rebound rhythm. The moving average system still suppresses oil prices, and the objective short-term trend direction remains downward. In terms of momentum, the MACD indicator crosses upward below the zero axis, and bullish momentum strengthens. It is expected that after a slight upward movement in crude oil prices during the day, there is a high probability of being blocked again near 62.50 and falling.
USOIL
sell@62-62.5
tp:61-60.5
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Potential bullish bounce?USO/USD has bounced off the support level which is an overlap support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could potentially rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 60.39
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 57.93
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 71% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 64.14
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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USOIL:Go long first
Crude oil short-term trend to maintain weak shock upward rhythm, K line closed long lower shadow line, there are signs of rebound. Short - term moving average system gradually long arrangement, relying on oil prices, short - term objective trend direction to upward. It is expected that the intraday trend of crude oil will continue to extend upward, hitting around 62.8-63
Recommended Trading Strategies:
61-61.2 range to be long, short-term target to see 62, break through the target to see 62.8-63
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CRUDE OIL Local Long! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
USOIL has retested a
Nice round horizontal
Support level of 60$
And we are predictably
Seeing a bullish reaction
From the level which we
Believe will take the price
A bit higher still
Buy!
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Latest Strategic Positioning for Crude OilDuring the US trading session, crude oil prices declined for the second consecutive trading day after rebounding from intraday lows and encountering resistance. The commodity traded at $60.42 per barrel, representing a 1.87% daily loss.
Per the Commitments of Traders (COT) report released last Friday, there exists a moderate divergence in sentiment between managed funds and asset management firms regarding WTI crude oil futures. While both investor categories maintain net long positions, over the prior two weeks, managed funds reduced their net long exposure by approximately 20,000 contracts, whereas large speculators increased their net long positions by 10,000 contracts.
Technically, crude oil exhibited a "rally-and-reversal" pattern today, retreating under selling pressure near the $61.7 resistance zone before stabilizing and rebounding around $60.0. Current price action indicates a range-bound oscillation, with bullish stabilization probabilities contingent on the $60.0 support level holding firm.
In summary, crude oil remains trapped in a narrow consolidation phase, with overhead resistance levels retaining dominance. For today's trading strategy, a "rebound shorting-first" approach is recommended, complemented by tactical long positions on dips. Key resistance lies between $61.7-$62.5, while support zones are identified at $60.0-$59.0.
In the market, there are no absolutes, and neither upward nor downward trends are set in stone. Therefore, the ability to judge the balance between market gains and losses is your key to success. Let money become our loyal servant.
Crude Oil (WTI/USD) Short Setup🔻 Crude Oil (WTI/USD) Short Setup – Trend Exhaustion with Bearish Risk/Reward Play
Crude oil has shown weakness after failing to reclaim the $62.50–63.00 resistance zone. Price is now consolidating near the breakdown level, and early signs of bearish continuation are forming. SQZMOM histogram is flattening near zero, hinting at loss of bullish momentum. This setup offers a high-probability short with favorable downside extension.
📉 Entry: 61.97
🎯 Target: 57.83
🛑 Stop Loss: 63.87
📊 Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.18
📆 Expected Duration: ~5 days
📌 Technical Highlights:
Bearish Retest: Price is stalling at previous broken support turned resistance.
Trend Weakness: Lower highs forming after recent top at 63.87.
SQZMOM Indicator: Momentum stalling below zero, signaling a potential shift back to bearish pressure.
Support Gap: Clean range down to $58 with thin volume structure below $60.
💬 A break below 60.12 confirms momentum shift. A close above 62.50 invalidates the short.
WTI Crude Slips as Inventory Build Fuels Bearish MomentumWest Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude edged lower overnight, extending its recent pullback following the latest U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly report for the week ending May 9. The data revealed an unexpected build of 3.45 million barrels in U.S. crude inventories, contrasting sharply with the prior week's 2.03 million-barrel draw and defying market expectations of a 1 million-barrel decline.
This surprise uptick in stockpiles signaled softening demand, compounding existing bearish sentiment and sparking a fresh wave of selling. WTI has since declined approximately 2% from the May 13 high of $63.68, suggesting growing downside pressure.
Technically, the price action appears poised to retest the key intermediate support at $60.00, a psychologically significant level. A decisive break below this area could expose the next major support at $55.12, a pivotal zone that aligns with the prevailing 7th March 2022 long-term downtrend. A breach of this support zone would likely confirm a broader bearish reversal, marking a critical milestone for oil markets.
On the contrary, oil prices may consolidate around the $60.00–$61.50 range before moving higher. If buying interest increases, prices could rise toward the key $63.71–$65.70 cluster zone. A decisive break above $66.00 could further interest near-term gains and short to medium term uptrend.
Traders will be closely watching upcoming macroeconomic indicators and geopolitical developments for further cues, with sentiment likely to remain fragile in the near term.
Bullish bounce off overlap support?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance, which is a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 59.97
1st Support: 57.60
1st Resistance: 63.27
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.