Crude oil settles before the breakoutCrude oil is losing volatility, having locked in a narrow trading range. Usually that deprives the market from a directional bias, but increases the odds of spikes and quick liquidity moves to the edges of the trading range and beyond with a possible mean-reversion activity followed after (as shown at the chart).
Given the lack of driving narratives, it’s possible to observe quick breakouts to both sides of the current trading range and further slowing down.
That opens some opportunities for day traders, but for swing and position traders, opportunities might be limited for now.
Traders will monitor for the petroleum status report and stock changes for the oil on Wednesday (regular report from eia.gov).
Don't forget - this is just the idea, always do your own research and never forget to manage your risk!
USOIL trade ideas
USOIL: Bullish Forecast & Bullish Scenario
The price of USOIL will most likely increase soon enough, due to the demand beginning to exceed supply which we can see by looking at the chart of the pair.
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The bears continue to dominate!Oil prices fluctuated lower this week, primarily pressured by the repeated U.S. tariff policies and expectations of OPEC+ production increases. During Friday's Asian session, Brent crude oil futures fell 0.41% to $63.89 per barrel, while U.S. WTI crude oil futures declined 0.44% to $60.67. The Brent July futures contract is set to expire on Friday. The tariffs imposed by U.S. President Trump were originally suspended, but the U.S. Federal Appellate Court temporarily reinstated them on Thursday, overturning the trade court's suspension ruling made on Wednesday. This legal volatility caused oil prices to plummet by more than 1% on Thursday.
The crude oil market this week has shown high sensitivity, influenced not only by legal rulings but also by dual pressures from geopolitical tensions and internal coordination imbalances within the organization. Under the intertwined effects of tariffs and production expectations, oil prices have struggled to achieve directional breakthroughs. If OPEC+ fails to reach an agreement on production control and demand from Asian countries and other major consumers has not recovered, oil prices are likely to maintain a weak oscillating pattern in the coming weeks. The MACD indicator is opening downward below the zero axis, with strong bearish momentum, suggesting a risk of further downside for crude oil during the day.
Overall, for next week's crude oil trading strategy, He Bosheng recommends focusing on bearish trades on rebounds, complemented by bullish trades on pullbacks.
Humans need to breathe, and perfect trading is like breathing—maintaining flexibility without needing to trade every market swing. The secret to profitable trading lies in implementing simple rules: repeating simple tasks consistently and enforcing them strictly over the long term.
Trading Strategy:
sell@61.5-62,0
TP:59.5-60.0
OILUSD Range Between 60–64.26 – Will Support Hold or Break?WTI Crude has been in a sideways range after the sharp drop in early April. Price recently tested resistance at 64.260 but failed to break higher, pulling back into the 60.000 support zone. This level has held multiple times, forming a key pivot.
Support at: 60.000 🔽, 55.931 🔽
Resistance at: 64.260 🔼, 67.000 🔼, 71.101 🔼
🔎 Bias:
🔼 Bullish: A strong rejection from the 60.000 zone followed by a breakout above 64.260.
🔽 Bearish: A daily/12H close below 60.000 opens the path to retest 55.931, and potentially lower.
📛 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
USOIL next week trend analysis, hope it helps youGeopolitical risks have eased: Recent signs of de-escalation in the Middle East have emerged, with the United States submitting a ceasefire proposal to Hamas. Although not immediately accepted, market concerns about conflict escalation have diminished. Progress has also been made in U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, with the Iranian Foreign Ministry stating that significant breakthroughs have been achieved. If an agreement is reached in the future, Iran's crude oil exports could increase by 500,000 to 1 million barrels per day, further impacting the global crude oil supply pattern and increasing supply pressures.
Other supply-increasing factors: Oil field production disruptions caused by wildfires in Alberta, Canada, have been partially restored, reducing supply disturbance factors. In addition, U.S. crude oil output has stabilized at around 13.5 million barrels per day, and institutions predict that U.S. crude oil production will increase by approximately 300,000 barrels per day in 2025, with the Permian Basin as the main growth driver, also bringing additional supply to the market.
Accelerated new energy substitution: Global new energy vehicle sales increased by 25% year-on-year in 2025, combined with improvements in fuel efficiency, the elasticity of crude oil demand continues to decline. With the continuous advancement and application of new energy technologies, the substitution effect on traditional crude oil demand has become increasingly evident, which is unfavorable for long-term crude oil price increases.
USOIL next week trend analysis, hope it helps you
USOIL SELL@61~60.5
SL:62
TP:60~59.5
USOIL next week trend analysis, hope it helps youOPEC+ confirmed at its meeting on May 31 that eight oil-producing countries under its mechanism will continue to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July, maintaining the same pace as in May and June. Although the market had partially priced in this expectation, the continuation of the production increase plan has strengthened the long-term logic of loose supply. It is worth noting that this production increase is not a unified action by the entire alliance but rather the result of core members such as Saudi Arabia and Russia voluntarily exiting production cuts, reflecting cautious attitudes within OPEC+ toward demand prospects. With oil prices currently breaking below the key psychological threshold of $60 per barrel, if the production increase plan continues into the second half of the year, it may further suppress the upside room for oil price rebounds.
USOIL next week trend analysis, hope it helps you
USOIL SELL@61~60.5
SL:62
TP:60~59.5
USOIL: Target Is Down! Short!
Today we will analyse USOIL together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding below a key level of 60.844 So a bearish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next low. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
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USOIL Expected Growth! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
My technical analysis for USOIL is below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 60.68
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 61.41
My Stop Loss - 60.25
About Used Indicators:
By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
USOIL next week trend analysis, hope it helps youLimited support on the demand side
- Seasonal factors: The U.S. summer travel peak has begun, with gasoline demand increasing by approximately 3% month-on-month, but warm winter conditions have caused heating oil consumption to decline by 5% year-on-year .
- Economic outlook: Expectations for a slowdown in global economic growth have intensified, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) latest report cutting its 2025 global GDP growth forecast to 2.8%. Downgraded growth expectations for major economies may curb crude oil consumption potential .
- New energy substitution: Global new energy vehicle sales grew by 25% year-on-year in 2025, and combined with improvements in fuel efficiency, the elasticity of crude oil demand continues to decline.
USOIL next week trend analysis, hope it helps you
USOIL SELL@61~60.5
SL:62
TP:60~59.5
WTI CRUDE OIL: Repeated rejections on the 1D MA50.WTI Crude Oil is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 46.483, MACD = -0.530, ADX = 16.270) as it is trading sideways for the past 2 weeks, unable however to cross above the 1D MA50, which along with the LH trendline, keep the trend bearish. Sell and aim for thr S1 level (TP = 56.00). Emerging Bearish Cross also on the 1D MACD.
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Oil Price Stuck Near $60 Amid Geopolitical TensionsOil Price Stuck Near $60 Amid Geopolitical Tensions
Oil prices remain near $60, driven by global uncertainty. In the Middle East, tensions persist as Israel continues its military actions in Gaza. Meanwhile, the war between Ukraine and Russia continues despite U.S. efforts to mediate. Reports indicate that Russia has used North Korean weapons to intensify missile strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, raising concerns about Moscow’s reliance on Pyongyang.
Adding to the uncertainty, Trump’s tariff policies are creating instability for major economies. However, OPEC+ has pledged to increase oil production in July, which could push prices lower.
For now, $60 remains a strong support level. If the price breaks below this barrier, further declines could follow, as indicated on the chart.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
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USOIL SELLERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
USOIL SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 61.25
Target Level: 56.17
Stop Loss: 64.55
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1D
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WTI Crude Oil – Bearish Elliott Wave SetupOn the 15-minute chart, I’m tracking a corrective rally in wave (ii) heading toward the 0.618 Fib zone (around 62.2–62.3) before the next major leg lower.
🔻 Bearish target: 52.00
📈 Looking for the final push up before confirming downside continuation.
💬 What are your thoughts on this Elliott Wave count?
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#WTI #CrudeOil #elliottwave #priceaction #technicalanalysis
CRUDE OIL Local Long! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
USOIL is headed towards
A strong horizontal support
Level of 60.00$ and as the
Level is strong we will be
Expecting a rebound and
A local move up after the
Price retests the support
Buy!
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USOIL Today's Trading Strategy Hope this helps you
The situation in the Middle East remains highly tense, with the Iran nuclear negotiations stalled and U.S. sanctions against Iran still in place. The two sides have significant differences on key issues such as nuclear facility inspections and conditions for lifting sanctions. Israel's military threats against Iran's nuclear facilities have continued to escalate, repeatedly stating publicly that it does not rule out launching military strikes against Iran. In the event of a conflict, as a major crude oil producer, Iran's crude oil production and exports would be severely disrupted, and oil transportation routes in the Middle East could also be blocked, creating a huge gap in global crude oil supply. At the same time, the geopolitical rivalry between Russia and Western countries in the energy sector has intensified, and geopolitical conflicts could lead Russia to adjust its crude oil export strategy, further exacerbating supply tensions in the global crude oil market and driving oil prices sharply higher.
Although OPEC+ accelerated production increases by 822,000 barrels per day in May-June, the remaining production capacity of major producers such as Saudi Arabia has fallen below 1.5 million barrels per day, making it difficult to effectively fill the supply gap left by Iran. Moreover, the production increase plan will be completed by October 2025, one year ahead of the original schedule, indicating concerns about long-term weak demand, which could instead undermine market confidence in supply flexibility.
USOIL Today's Trading Strategy Hope this helps you
USOIL BUY@60.5~61
SL:59.5
TP:62~62.5
USOIL – Reclaiming the Energy Narrative | WaverVanir Macro Rever📉 Chart Thesis:
After nearly three years of structural decline from the $129 peak, crude oil (USOIL) is approaching a confluence zone of historic Fibonacci support ($56–$60) and a multi-year descending trendline.
This zone may mark the bottom of a long-term accumulation phase.
🧠 Strategic Perspective (WaverVanir View):
“It’s time to take back our resource. Not just politically—but economically, institutionally, and structurally.”
WaverVanir International LLC sees this setup as a rare macro pivot. This isn’t about short-term fluctuations—it’s about the global realignment of resource value in a world where:
Central banks are overleveraged
Strategic petroleum reserves are drawn down
War premium is mispriced
Real assets are undervalued
📊 Key Levels:
Support Zone: $56.04 (historical institutional buy zone)
Breakout Trigger: Trendline above $67.00
Target 1: $101.35 (0.786 Fib)
Target 2: $129.42 (1.0 Fib)
Target 3: $160.58 (1.236 Fib projection)
⚠️ Risk Disclosure:
We are not yet capitalized but actively building a legally compliant funding vehicle. No capital is currently allocated. This post is part of our vision publication cycle to build trust and transparency in WaverVanir’s thesis.
📌 Follow WaverVanir International LLC for conviction-based macro trade ideas at the intersection of data science, price action, and risk strategy.
#USOIL #MacroTrading #Commodities #WaverVanir #TradingView #QuantMacro #EnergyRevolution #FibonacciAnalysis #MarketStructure #EmergingFund
USOIL REBOUND AHEAD|LONG|
✅CRUDE OIL is set to retest a
Strong support level below at 60.20$
After trading in a local downtrend from some time
Which makes a bullish rebound a likely scenario
With the target being a local resistance above at 61.43$
LONG🚀
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
USOIL:First go short, then go long
USOIL: There are still signs of a pullback on an hourly basis after oil prices climbed to near 63 after OPEC+ said there would be no immediate changes to current production policies.
So the trading strategy :SELL@62.5-62.8 TP@61.6-61.3
After stepping back to the point can not break a wave of rebound, the target can look at 63 again
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USOIL:Long thinking, target 62.5
USOIL: Same idea, the front 61.3-61.5 has been given to the entry point, it is slowly rising, the upper target is still seen near 62.5.
So strategically, stay long and wait for the rally, TP@62.5
Tip: It is always right to sell when there is a profit, according to individual risk appetite.
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