Crude oil rebounds after a correction!International oil prices continued to climb on Monday, though the gains were limited. Brent crude futures rose 8 cents to $70.44 per barrel, extending Friday's 2.51% rally. U.S. WTI crude edged up 5 cents to $68.50 per barrel, after surging 2.82% in the previous trading session.
The primary driver behind the current upward move stems from market expectations of further escalation in U.S. sanctions against Russia. U.S. President Trump stated on Sunday that he would provide Ukraine with the "Patriot" air defense missile system and deliver a "major announcement" on Russia-related issues on Monday. "Trump is dissatisfied with the Russian President's failure to advance the peace process, a stance exacerbated by Russia's continued bombing of Ukrainian cities in recent days.
In the short term (1-hour timeframe), crude oil has shown high volatility, with prices finding support at the lower edge of the wide trading range and moving higher again. The objective short-term trend direction is upward within the range, with sufficient bullish momentum. However, given the high probability of recent erratic price swings, there is a greater likelihood that intraday crude oil prices will encounter resistance at the upper edge of the range and pull back.
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USOILSPOT trade ideas
WTI Oil H4 | Rising into a pullback resistanceWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 70.04 which is a pullback resistance.
Stop loss is at 72.70 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 65.91 which is an overlap support.
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WTI US OIL US Oil (WTI Crude) Price Context
Price: WTI crude oil futures settled at approximately $68.66 per barrel close of friday.
Prices rebounded after a prior decline, supported by strong summer travel demand, high refinery utilization, and supply management efforts by major producers like Russia and Saudi Arabia.
Outlook: Despite near-term supply tightness, the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC forecast a potential surplus later in 2025 and slower demand growth through 2026–2029, especially due to slower Chinese economic growth.
The DXY measures the USD strength against a basket of major currencies and often moves inversely to commodities priced in USD like oil.
When the DXY strengthens, oil prices can face downward pressure due to higher USD value making oil more expensive in other currencies.
Conversely, a weaker DXY tends to support higher oil prices.
Current Dynamics:
If geopolitical risks or supply constraints push oil prices up, the USD may weaken as markets price in inflationary pressures.
Conversely, if the USD strengthens due to safe-haven demand or monetary policy, oil prices may soften.
#usoil
Bullish bounce>WTI Oil (XTI/USD) is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 65.65
1st Support: 63.74
1st Resistance: 68.24
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Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Will It Rise More?
Quick update for my yesterday's analysis for WTI Crude Oil.
As I predicted yesterday, the price went up to the target.
We got one more strong bullish confirmation after a New York
session opening:
the price violated a resistance of a horizontal range on a 4H time frame.
I think that the market may rise even more and reach 69.25 level.
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WTI Oil – From Conflict to StrategyBack on April 24, I marked a short zone. On June 11, price broke above that level, giving a long opportunity — which I took.
Unfortunately, it coincided with the tragic military strike by Israel on Iran, pushing oil sharply higher. I’ve pinned that analysis.
Following the ceasefire, price dropped again — just a reminder that geopolitics can shake the charts.
As traders, we stay prepared to act, even while acknowledging the deep sadness of lives lost.
Now I wait for price to reach my marked level again. If I get a valid signal, I’ll short.
But if price breaks and holds above, I’ll buy the pullback — with no bias, just pure execution.
Risk-managed. Emotion-neutral. Opportunity-focused.
Crude Oil – Range Getting Too Long to Ignore
Oil has been stuck in a prolonged range, and a breakout in either direction is becoming increasingly likely.
The overall trend remains bullish, as there’s been no confirmed trend reversal yet.
📌 Key Scenarios:
A break to the upside would signal continuation of the bullish trend.
A break below the range could confirm a potential trend reversal.
📈📉 To avoid missing the next move, this setup can be traded with Buy Stop above the range and Sell Stop below it, allowing you to catch the momentum regardless of the direction.
⚠️ Wait for confirmation on higher timeframes if you prefer less risk
Does someone knows something that we don't?It seems to me we are getting in an accumulation phase on oil. Is there another war rally on the horizon or something else!? They can manipulate price but they can't manipulate volume that easily. Notice that every time price rises, volume rises with it and when price falls, volume decreases with it. My bet would be buying bellow the last lows, where a sea of stop loss rests, before ripping up the page.
WTI Crude corrective pullback testing support at 6500Trade Tensions & Inflation Impact on WTI Crude
Tariff Announcement: The US has imposed reciprocal tariffs on 22 nations, including major trade partners such as the EU, Japan, Canada, Mexico, and South Korea, after a failed trade agreement during the 90-day negotiation window.
EU Response: The EU is preparing retaliatory tariffs unless a deal is reached before the August 1 deadline, raising the risk of a trade war escalation.
Trump's Warning: The US President has threatened additional tariffs if retaliatory measures are enacted, compounding uncertainty in global trade flows.
Inflation Spike: US June CPI rose to 2.7% YoY, in line with expectations. The increase was driven by higher prices of imported goods, as tariffs begin affecting consumer costs.
Fed Policy Impact: Rising inflation weakens the case for a Fed rate cut in September, dampening liquidity expectations and investor risk sentiment.
Conclusion for WTI Crude Trading
The combination of rising inflation, tariff-driven cost pressures, and a potential stall in Fed easing is bearish for WTI crude in the near term.
Additionally, intensifying trade tensions threaten global demand outlooks, which may further weigh on oil prices.
Traders should expect near-term downside pressure on WTI crude unless there is a clear de-escalation in trade rhetoric or a surprise dovish pivot from the Fed.
Bias: Cautiously Bearish on WTI Crude near term.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6830
Resistance Level 2: 6940
Resistance Level 3: 7045
Support Level 1: 6500
Support Level 2: 6435
Support Level 3: 6370
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WTI Crude Oil Analysis – July 15, 2025Following recent Middle East tensions, WTI crude oil briefly surged to around $77.
However, the price quickly retraced back to its previous range and seems to have resumed its prior downward trajectory — characterized by a gradual bearish slope.
🔍 It’s important to remember that before the geopolitical events, analysts were eyeing the $52 level as a potential target.
Now, with liquidity being absorbed around the $70 area, that bearish scenario remains valid.
📉 Unless oil decisively breaks above key resistance levels, the outlook continues to favor a slow, downward trend.
Falling towards pullback support?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 63.73
1st Support: 56.03
1st Resistance: 71.20
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish reversal off 38.2% Fibonacci resistance?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support which is a pullback support.
Pivot: 70.08
1st Support: 65.56
1st Resistance: 73.54
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
WTI Crude Oil Analysis – 4-Hour TimeframeWTI Crude Oil Analysis – 4-Hour Timeframe
At the moment, the price is trading below a key resistance zone (marked in red), which has previously triggered multiple pullbacks. The current price behavior near this area reflects market hesitation to break through this level.
🔴 Bullish Scenario:
If the price manages to break above this resistance zone and holds above it, we can expect the upward movement to continue toward higher resistance levels. This move may unfold in a step-by-step trend, accompanied by intermediate pullbacks. The next resistance zones could act as potential targets for the bullish wave.
🔴 Bearish Scenario:
If the price reacts negatively to the current resistance area and fails to break through, a bearish correction may follow. In this case, the nearby short-term support levels could be the first targets for sellers. If those supports are also broken, the likelihood of a deeper decline and continuation of the downward trend increases.
USOIL Will Collapse! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
USOIL looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 68.66 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 67.95
About Used Indicators:
The average true range (ATR) plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Crude oil awaits upward breakthrough
💡Message Strategy
Inventory data provides short-term support, but it is difficult to change the trend
Although oil prices are under pressure overall, inventory data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) show that as of last week, U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories have dropped significantly, while gasoline consumption has increased by 6% month-on-month to 9.2 million barrels per day, indicating that the summer driving peak has brought short-term positive factors.
In addition, global aviation demand has also become an important variable to boost market sentiment. JPMorgan Chase pointed out in a client report: "In the first eight days of July, the global daily number of flights reached an average of 107,600, a record high, among which aviation activities in Asian countries have recovered to the peak in nearly five months."
The bank also expects that the average daily global crude oil demand growth this year will be 970,000 barrels, which is basically consistent with its forecast of 1 million barrels at the beginning of the year, indicating that although the consumption end is under pressure, it has not yet experienced a cliff-like decline.
📊Technical aspects
The short-term (4H) trend of crude oil breaks through the upper resistance of the range and runs in an upward trend. The moving average system is arranged in a bullish pattern, and the short-term objective trend direction is upward. The MACD indicator opens upward above the zero axis, and the bullish momentum is sufficient. The oil price fluctuates in a narrow range, and it is expected that the crude oil will continue to rise.
In terms of operation, crude oil is mainly long at a low level. If it rises to the target point, the direction will be selected according to the pattern and continued attention will be paid.
💰Strategy Package
Long Position:65.50-66.50,SL:64.00,Target:69.00-70.00
TRADING IDEA - US CRUDE OIL - BEARISH FLAG, CONCERNS ON GLOBAL EFOREXCOM:USOIL
The US Crude Oil prices went down yesterday, mostly because of the tariffs and concerns on demand.
Here is what the Bloomberg is writing: " OPEC+ is discussing a pause in its oil production increases from October is fueling concerns about a slowdown in global energy demand. In addition, the intensification of US tariffs risks slowing global economic growth and energy demand after President Trump ramped up tariffs on numerous countries this week, including a 50% tariff on Brazil."
So, despite the pause in oil production increase, which is supposed to be bullish factor the oil prices, we may see the slowdown in global economy and supposedly a recession because of Trump's tariffs. This is a long-term bearish factor for the oil. I think that we will see another bearish impulse here, according to what we observe on the chart.
There is a nice bearish flag and i am planning to short it with a target nearby 6,540.00 support level.
🔽 a pending sell stop order at 6615.3 with
❌a stop loss at 6680.9 and
🤑a take profit at 6544.0
Trade cautiously! Preserve your deposits!