USOIL: Bullish Correction Ahead! Buy!
USOIL
- Classic bullish correction formation
- Our team expects growth
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Buy USOIL
Entry Level - 65.16
Sl - 62.68
Tp - 68.86
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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USOUSD trade ideas
Crude Oil Gets Trapped Back Inside 3-Year Down trending ChannelAfter failing to close above the upper border and the 78 resistance level, and amid renewed hopes for a Middle East ceasefire, oil prices dropped sharply back toward the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders formation—initially broken ahead of the recent war escalation—at 64.70.
A sustained move below that neckline could target crude prices toward the mid-zone of the established channel, near 63.40 and 61.40, where another rebound may take shape.
On the upside, if a clear recovery re-emerges above the 72-mark, the potential for a breakout above the 78-resistance could return, opening the door to revisit the 80 and 83.50 highs.
— Razan Hilal, CMT
WTI Oil: further downside?Front page news this morning focussed on the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, first announced by US President Donald Trump on his Truth Social platform. However, reports recently emerged of Iran firing missiles, seemingly violating the ceasefire, but no confirmation has been received yet. The point is that things remain somewhat uncertain as of writing.
The technical front, nevertheless, is interesting on WTI Oil (West Texas Intermediate), and ultimately points to a moderate pullback before heading lower.
Monthly descending triangle in play
The flow on the monthly chart reveals that price action completed a descending triangle in April this year, formed between US$95.00 and US$64.41. Following the breach of the lower boundary and refreshing year-to-date (YTD) lows of US$55.15, a determined pullback materialised and resulted in the unit testing the upper barrier of the pattern. As you can see, the test has held for now, with June poised to end the month considerably off its best levels.
Given that price has aggressively rejected the upper boundary of the triangle formation, and if we see WTI push to fresh YTD lows, this would unearth a possible bearish scenario in the direction of support from US$42.57.
Daily Fibonacci resistance
Across the page on the daily chart, you will note that recent flow touched gloves with support at US$64.55, a level complemented by a 1.272% Fibonacci projection ratio at US$64.76, a trendline support (extended from the low of US$55.40), and a neighbouring 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at US$63.70. Given that the 1.272% Fibonacci projection ratio also represents an ‘alternate’ AB=CD support pattern, traders that are long from US$64.55 may aim for the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ratios of US$69.53 and US$72.59. Consequently, both of these lines serve as potential resistance levels to watch.
H1 confluence
With monthly price suggesting further selling, and daily resistance on the table, the H1 chart shines the spotlight on two levels of resistance at US$68.35 and US$70.14. However, I am more drawn to the latter level as a potential resistance. This is because it converges closely with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ratio on the daily timeframe mentioned above at US$69.53, as well as a nearby 1.618% Fibonacci projection ratio on the H1 chart at US$69.13.
As a result, my focus will be on H1 resistance between US$70.14 and US$69.13.
Written by FP Markets Chief Market Analyst Aaron Hill
USOIL The Target Is UP! BUY!
My dear friends,
USOIL looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 65.03 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long) signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 68.89
Recommended Stop Loss - 63.01
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Here is the latest analysis of the crude oil market trendOn Wednesday, international oil prices stabilized and rebounded after two consecutive days of correction, as the market reassessed the short-term easing of the Middle East situation and changes in crude oil supply. Brent crude oil futures rose by $0.75, or 1.1%, to $67.89 per barrel; WTI crude oil rose by $0.71 to $65.08. Previously, U.S. air strikes damaged key Iranian facilities. Although they did not completely destroy its capabilities, they triggered short-term market concerns about supply chain disruptions.
When geopolitical tensions temporarily eased, the market also turned its attention to inventory data. The latest data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that for the week ending June 20, U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 4.23 million barrels, far exceeding the market expectation of a 2.5 million barrel decline, indicating that refinery demand remained strong. Under the dual effect of the mitigation of geopolitical risks and the bullish API inventory data, oil prices showed signs of stabilization, but the foundation for the rise was still fragile.
In the next few trading days, the safety of the Strait of Hormuz and the EIA official inventory report will become the key to whether the bulls can continue. In the current volatile pattern, it is necessary to remain cautious and pay close attention to changes in the technical support area and U.S. policy dynamics.
However, in terms of momentum, the MACD indicator has formed a bearish crossover below the zero axis, signaling a weakening of bullish momentum. This suggests that the medium-term trend of crude oil is likely to fall into a high-level consolidation pattern.
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Trading Strategy:
sell@67.0-68.0
TP:63.0-64.0
Could the Crude Oil reverse from here?The price is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 66.77
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 61.06
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 72.33
Why we like it:
There a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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Bulls on the Loose: US Oil Spot/WTI Heist Strategy! 🚨💰 THE OIL VAULT HEIST: US OIL SPOT/WTI TRADING STRATEGY 💸🔫
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Place buy limit orders within the 15 or 30-minute timeframe, near swing lows/highs for pullback entries.
🛑 Stop Loss 🛑
📍 Thief’s SL—recent swing low and below the moving average (4H timeframe) for day/swing trades.
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🎯 Target
🏴☠️💥 69.000 (Aim for the big loot!) OR escape before the target
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Market next move 🔄 Disruption Analysis: Contrarian View
⚠️ Original Viewpoint Summary:
The original analysis suggests a bearish breakdown from the rising channel, with a short-term target of 64.36, pointing to a move towards the support zone.
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📉 Disrupted (Contrarian) Perspective:
🔁 Fakeout Scenario Possibility:
The sharp drop below the trendline may be a bear trap.
Price quickly bounced back into the channel region, showing buyer interest near the support.
🔎 Key Observations:
Wick rejection near the lower support suggests that demand is active around 64.50–64.36 zone.
The structure of higher lows is still valid unless there's a confirmed close below the support box.
Momentum indicators (not shown) may help validate whether this is a temporary pullback or a deeper correction.
📈 Alternative Projection:
If price holds above the support zone, it could rebound back to test 65.50–65.80 resistance.
A false breakdown followed by consolidation may lead to retest of the upper channel (near 66.00).
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🧭 Revised Strategy Suggestion:
Avoid early shorts unless there is a confirmed candle close below 64.36.
Watch for bullish price action near support (hammer, engulfing) for a potential long re-entry.
Reevaluate if WTI forms a base around 64.40 — possible reversal setup.
Is the oil market signalling de-escalation?After an initial 6% spike at the open, U.S. crude oil futures reversed sharply—falling into negative territory—as markets priced in the possibility that Iran's latest retaliation may be more symbolic than escalatory.
According to President Donald Trump, Iran gave advance notice before launching missiles at a U.S. base in Qatar, allowing defences to intercept the attack and resulting in no reported casualties.
While Tehran publicly described the strike as “devastating and powerful,” the lack of impact on the ground and the pre-warning have fuelled speculation that Iran was aiming to save face without triggering a broader conflict.
The swift reversal in oil prices reflects that sentiment. For now, the market appears to be signaling that escalation may pause here.
US CRUDE OIL LONG RESULT Crude Oil price has been in an overall bullish trend and after it broke out of the previously formed symmetrical triangle.
Tried to get in earlier but wasn't getting enough pullback levels tapped.
Almost got our S.l hit and also missed the Tp but still managed to close in profits.
_THE_KLASSIC_TRADER_.
WTI OIL TRADING IDEA 1 JULY 2025WTI Crude Oil is currently trading around $64.77, following a recent rejection from the $76–78 resistance zone. This area represents a strong supply zone and coincides with the upper boundary of a long-term descending channel, indicating institutional selling pressure. From a Smart Money Concepts (SMC) perspective, this move appears to be a liquidity grab above previous highs, where price tapped into a bearish order block before aggressively reversing. Price action confirms this bearish sentiment, with a visible rejection and bearish engulfing candle suggesting that sellers are defending the region aggressively.
On the supply and demand side, the $76.77–78.30 zone is the immediate supply zone, while the next key resistance above lies between $79.37 and $93.94. On the downside, demand lies at $58.69–64.00, with major demand and liquidity resting around $55.00 and $51.79. Fundamentally, the recent spike in oil prices was largely driven by heightened tensions in the Middle East, particularly renewed conflict concerns between Iran and Israel. However, as no direct disruption to oil supply has occurred, the geopolitical risk premium is now being priced out. Additionally, concerns over global demand, especially from China and Europe, along with a gradual and controlled U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) refill, are putting downward pressure on prices despite OPEC+ maintaining output cuts.
Based on this analysis, the trade idea favors a bearish swing setup. A short position around $64.00–66.00 could be considered, targeting $58.69 as the first take-profit level, followed by $55.00 and $51.79 for extended targets. The stop loss should be placed just above $78.50 to allow room beyond the supply zone and trendline. This setup offers a risk-reward ratio of approximately 1:3. However, if price breaks and holds above $78.50, it may signal a structural shift toward bullish momentum, likely driven by unexpected geopolitical escalation or a change in OPEC strategy. In such a case, the bias should flip to bullish, with potential targets around $89.00–93.00.
WTI CRUDE OIL USD WEEKLY ANALYSIS Price is reacting from a weekly FVG just below the 50% of a larger range, with some bullish momentum possibly fueled by recent geopolitical tensions.
But price is still within a bearish range acting as resistance, so upside may remain limited unless structure shifts.
A daily bullish OB below the 50% of that range could offer a solid pullback entry if price retraces which is aligning with the broader narrative and upside liquidity. Im having a neutral view of this and leveraging on both sides.
What are your thoughts?
USOIL Is Very Bullish! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for USOIL.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is on a crucial zone of demand 73.546.
The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 79.365 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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