Wti Long Price is forming a rising wedge on 15 mins , the reasonable stop loss is after it breaks the bottom of the wedge.
USOUSD trade ideas
Crude turns upCrude prices shot higher overnight following news that OPEC+ has delayed an expected production increase. Both Brent and WTI were up around 3% on the news, even though the announced delay is only for a month. This has taken front-move crude back up to an area of resistance around $71.50-72.00. If it can push above this region convincingly, and then hold it on any pullback, then this starts to improve the immediate outlook as far as the bulls are concerned. The daily MACD has started to turn up a touch, and while it remains in negative territory, this suggests an uptick in upside momentum. There has also been some relief that Iran did not take the opportunity over the weekend to launch an attack on Israel in retaliation for the Israeli attack the week before. Prices had jumped on Thursday evening after Israeli intelligence reported that Iran was planning to attack Isreal from its bases within Iraq.
Bearish reversal off 50% Fibonacci resistance?USO/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 70.14
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 72.32
Why we like it:
There is a an overlap resistance level that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 68.39
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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UsOIL Long Buy due to lower Support Hello Traders
In This Chart XTIUSD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET
today XTIUSD analysis 👆
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BUY OILCrude oil is giving us a buying opportunity. Targets 70.000 stops 67.284 use proper risk management.
Risk-on Risk-off Report, October 29, 2024October 29, 2024. Market sentiment reflects a cautious risk-off environment. Factors contributing to this include ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the Israel-Gaza conflict and Russia-Ukraine situation, which increase market volatility and drive investors toward safe-haven assets.
Currency Movements and Bond Yields:
Safe-Haven Currencies: The Japanese yen (JPY) and Swiss franc (CHF) have strengthened, typical in risk-off periods. The U.S. dollar (USD) remains strong, especially against risk-oriented currencies like the Australian (AUD) and New Zealand dollars (NZD), which have weakened as investors avoid riskier markets.
High-Yielding Currencies : Commodity currencies like the CAD, AUD, and NZD are currently facing selling pressure, reflecting an overall aversion to risk in forex trading. This is evident in the downtrend for AUD/USD, with further bearish sentiment expected as investors shift focus away from risk assets.
Bond Yields : Short-term bond yields in the U.S., Canada, and other developed economies remain high but are starting to plateau due to concerns about long-term economic stability and potential adjustments in monetary policies. Japan’s Bank of Japan has hinted at possible rate normalization, which could see gradual rate increases ahead.
Commodities:
Gold: Demand for gold, a traditional safe haven, has increased, buoyed by both its safe-haven appeal and an anticipated easing in U.S. rates. The commodity’s upward trend is expected to continue, especially if risk aversion remains high.
Crude Oil and Natural Gas : Crude oil prices have been volatile but are somewhat supported by constrained OPEC+ production. However, natural gas prices face downward pressure from a supply overhang in the U.S. and subdued global demand.
Stock Indices:
Global stock indices, including those in the U.S. (S&P 500), Europe (DAX), and Japan (Nikkei), are under pressure. The U.S. indices, in particular, are vulnerable to declining earnings outlooks and inflation concerns, making them less attractive amidst risk-off sentiment. Japanese markets reflect a similar pattern, affected by both local and global risk factors.
Crypto Market:
The total crypto market cap is facing headwinds, with limited upward momentum in Bitcoin and other leading cryptos, as investors remain cautious about volatile assets during risk-off periods. Meme coins, known for their speculative nature, have seen reduced interest.
Influential News and Events:
The Forex Factory economic calendar lists significant upcoming central bank announcements and economic data releases, with the Federal Reserve's stance on rate cuts closely watched. Bank of Japan board members have also hinted at a gradual approach to rate normalization, reflecting heightened caution in economic adjustments. In addition, global geopolitical issues, especially in the Middle East, are adding uncertainty, bolstering demand for safe-haven assets like USD, CHF, and JPY.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. The information provided is for general informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial or investment advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
USOIL Will Move Lower! Short!
Here is our detailed technical review for USOIL.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 69.00.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 65.47.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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WTI - How will oil react to the elections?!In the 4H timeframe, oil is below the EMA200 and EMA50 and is moving in its descending channel. In case of rising due to increasing tensions, we can see the ceiling of the channel and sell in that range with appropriate risk reward. If the downward trend continues and the support range is broken, you can buy oil at the bottom of the downward channel.
Under President Joe Biden, U.S. oil and gas production has reached new records, and the outcome of the U.S. election is unlikely to significantly impact commodities like energy in the short term. Analysts at Capital Economics believe that the election result will have minimal influence on most commodity prices over the next few months.
However, differences in candidates’ views on vehicle greenhouse gas emissions, liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, and foreign policy toward Iran could notably impact oil and gas prices over the next five years.
The CEO of Goldman Sachs stated that the U.S. economy is very resilient, expressing concerns over global inflation, spending, and the U.S. budget deficit. He advised focusing on the long-term interest rates in the U.S.
Solomon emphasized the importance of U.S. long-term interest rates and mentioned that the Federal Reserve will base its 2025 decisions on economic data. He also noted that geopolitical impacts on Goldman Sachs’ business are minimal but voiced concerns about geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Yesterday, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister announced that the country remains committed to maintaining a production capacity of 12.3 million barrels of crude oil per day.
In Q3, British Petroleum (BP) reported a net profit of $2.3 billion, exceeding analysts’ expectations. This compares to $2.8 billion in Q2 and $3.3 billion in Q3 2023. BP shares have declined by over 14% since the start of the year.
BP is also targeting new investments in the Middle East and the Gulf of Mexico to boost oil and gas production. A BP spokesperson stated that the company will continue as a simpler, more focused, and higher-value entity. Other oil companies like Shell and Total are also preparing to release their quarterly reports shortly.
Oil is looking to Trend lower to $40 If OIl breaks doesn't hold from the descending triangle, we may be looking at OIl going to previous resistance, which should now be support at $40
WTI CRUDE OIL: 1H Death Cross suggests another Low is coming.WTI Crude Oil is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 42.281, MACD = -0.560, ADX = 26.062) with the bearish bias evident as in the last 3 weeks the price is trading inside a Channel Down. The formation of a 1H Death Cross earlier today, draws comparisons with the October 15th one. Both price actions found a temporary support on the 1.382 Fibonacci level at the time of the Death Cross but the 1H RSI was rebounding on a bullish divergence. We expect the price to extend replicating that bearish wave and approach the 1.618 Fib eventually (TP = 66.00).
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#WTI Crude Oil 4-HWTI Crude Oil 4-Hour Analysis
WTI Crude Oil is trading within a falling channel on the 4-hour chart, currently finding support at the channel's lower boundary. This support level could provide a potential buy opportunity, especially if bullish momentum builds. Additionally, a breakout above the channel's upper resistance line would signal further upside, opening the door for more buy entries.
Technical Outlook:
- Pattern: Falling Channel
- Forecast: Bullish (Buy Opportunity)
- Support Level: Channel lower boundary
- Further Opportunity: Buy more if resistance breakout occurs
Traders may look to enter buy positions at the channel support and consider adding to positions if a breakout above the upper resistance confirms additional bullish momentum. Indicators like RSI for oversold conditions or MACD for bullish crossovers can provide extra confirmation before entering.
What Is a Petrodollar and How Does It Affect the Global Economy?What Is a Petrodollar and How Does It Affect the Global Economy?
The concept of petrodollars is an insightful topic to study. The petrodollar isn’t a specific currency but a financial system that reflects economic and political forces that have shaped international relations for decades. This concept is critical to understanding global trade dynamics and geopolitical strategies.
Petrodollar: Definition and Origins
A petrodollar refers to the US dollars earned by oil-exporting countries through the sale of oil to other nations. The term gained fame in the 1970s, a period marked by significant changes in the global economic landscape, particularly concerning energy resources and currency stability.
Historical Context
The petrodollar system received a significant boost in development as a result of economic necessity and geopolitical strategy during the turbulent 1970s. Key historical events, such as the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the 1973 oil crisis, and the US–Saudi agreement, set the stage for the creation of the term ‘petrodollar’. These events emphasised the importance of securing stable economic fundamentals in the face of global uncertainty.
Bretton Woods Agreement
The Bretton Woods Agreement, established in 1944, created a system of fixed exchange rates anchored by the US dollar, which was convertible to gold. This system fostered post-war economic stability. The Bretton Woods Agreement led to the formation of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. The system eventually collapsed in 1971 when President Richard M. Nixon ended the dollar’s convertibility to gold. This collapse left the global economy searching for a new anchor.
1973 Oil Crisis
In 1973, the Organisation of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) declared an oil embargo against the US and other Western countries that supported Israel during the Yom Kippur War. The embargo prohibited oil exports to target countries and led to a reduction in oil production. The immediate impact was a sharp increase in oil prices. This crisis underscored the strategic importance of oil and prompted economic shifts.
US–Saudi Agreement
On 8th June 1974, Saudi Arabia entered into an agreement with the United States to accept dollars as the sole payment currency for its oil in exchange for the countries’ bilateral cooperation and US military support to the Saudi regime. This so-called ‘petrodollar agreement’ virtually pegged the value of the US dollar to global oil demand and ensured its continued dominance as the world’s main reserve currency.
Mechanisms of the Petrodollar System
The petrodollar system refers to the practice of trading oil in US dollars, as well as the broader arrangements that support it. Let’s see how it is manifested.
Oil Purchases
Global oil sales are predominantly in US dollars, regardless of the buyer or seller’s country. This practice means that countries buying oil must hold dollar reserves, which creates a constant global demand for dollars. This supports the currency’s value and gives the US significant influence over global financial markets. As a benefit, uniformity reduces currency risk and transaction costs.
Oil Sales
The settlement of oil transactions involves the transfer of dollars through international banking systems, although US banks are the most predominant. The US can exert economic pressure by restricting access to the dollar financial system, effectively imposing sanctions on countries.
Recycling of Petrodollars
Petrodollar “recycling” refers to the way oil-exporting countries utilise their oil revenue. These countries spend part of their oil revenues on foreign goods and services and save another portion as foreign assets. These assets can include deposits in foreign banks, bonds, and private equity investments. Ultimately, the foreign exchange earned by oil exporters from increased oil exports flows back into the global economy, hence the term “recycled.”
Economic and Political Implications
The petrodollar system has profound implications for the global economy and geopolitics.
Global Trade and Geopolitics
The petrodollar system standardises oil pricing, simplifies transactions, and reduces exchange rate risks for oil-importing countries, thereby facilitating smoother international trade flows. The petrodollar system cemented the relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia, along with other oil-producing nations, forming a strategic alliance that would influence global politics for decades.
Oil-Exporting Countries
Oil-exporting countries reinvest revenues into exploration, drilling, and infrastructure projects, boosting oil production and driving technological advancements. Additionally, petrodollars allow oil-exporting nations to invest in the domestic economy and stimulate domestic growth.
US Economic Influence
The petrodollar system increased global demand for the dollar, solidifying its status as the world’s primary reserve currency. Oil-exporting countries holding large reserves of US dollars invest them in US government securities, which support the US economy. The demand for US dollars maintains a favourable trade balance for the United States. Oil transactions increasing the global circulation of dollars support US exports.
High dollar demand ensures ample liquidity in the forex market, making it the most widely traded currency. If you are interested in trading currencies such as the US dollar, explore popular USD pairs on the TickTrader platform.
Criticisms and Challenges
While the petrodollar provides economic and geopolitical advantages, it also exposes countries to a number of risks and challenges.
Economic Disparities
Critics argue that the petrodollar exacerbates global economic inequality. By concentrating economic power and benefits in the hands of a limited group of oil-exporting countries, it perpetuates inequality and prevents more equitable economic development. This concentration of wealth and influence often puts poorer countries at a disadvantage, as they find it difficult to compete on a world stage dominated by petrodollar transactions.
Dependency and Vulnerability
The petrodollar system also creates dependencies:
1. Oil-importing countries must maintain dollar reserves, potentially exposing their economies to changes in the USD rate.
2. Oil-exporting countries invest heavily in the US economy and financial instruments, making them vulnerable to economic fluctuations and potential restrictions by the US, such as sanctions.
3. The US economy profits from the capital inflows, as they help finance the federal budget and support economic growth. Reduced inflows may negatively impact the US economy.
4. Changes in geopolitical alliances, regional conflicts, and economic policies can impact the stability and future of the petrodollar system. The collapse of the petrodollar could have serious consequences for the US and global economy.
Future of the Petrodollar
The future of this system is uncertain, especially with the changing geopolitical landscape. Saudi Arabia has opted to terminate the 50-year petrodollar agreement with the US, and it expired on June 9, 2024, which was referred to as the end of the petrodollar in the news.
This agreement has been the cornerstone of the petrodollar system, and its expiration marks a significant shift. It means that oil will be traded in multiple currencies, including the Chinese yuan, euro, yen, and potentially digital currencies like Bitcoin. These efforts reflect a growing desire to reduce dependency on the dollar and diversify economic risks.
These changes may contribute to a more balanced global economic environment by weakening the influence of the dollar, creating a more multipolar currency system, and providing countries with greater financial autonomy.
Another threat to the oil-US dollar system is that countries seek sustainable energy alternatives and new economic alliances emerge. In particular, the shift to renewable energy could reduce the world’s dependence on oil, thereby decreasing the centrality of the traditional energy system and the US dollar, causing a reassessment of the existing order.
Final Thoughts
The petrodollar, born out of historical necessity and strategic agreements, may no longer be a cornerstone of economics and geopolitics. As global energy and financial systems evolve, the role of the petrodollar has become the subject of critical analysis and debate, and the recent termination of the US–Saudi agreement is a prime example of the changing economic and geopolitical landscape.
Changes may lead to revaluation of various currencies and market volatility. Those who are interested in catching market volatility and trading on news events, can open an FXOpen account and start trading various USD pairs.
FAQ
What Is the Petrodollar?
The petrodollar is the name of the system that reflects US dollars earned by a country through the sale of its petroleum to other countries. This term highlights the relationship between global oil sales and the US dollar.
When Was the Petrodollar Created?
The petrodollar concept was created in the mid-1970s. The turning point came in 1974 when the United States and Saudi Arabia reached an agreement that oil prices would be set exclusively in US dollars. This agreement followed the collapse of the Bretton Woods System and the 1973 oil crisis.
Why Is Oil Only Traded in Dollars?
Currently, oil is not only traded in dollars. Some oil-exporting countries use their national currencies, and the euro and Chinese yuan may be widely used for oil trading in the near future. Oil was traded in dollars mainly because of the 1974 US-Saudi agreement. It created a standard currency for oil transactions and reduced exchange rate risks. But since the agreement was terminated in June 2024, other currencies may become more common in oil transactions.
Is the US Dollar Backed by Oil?
No, the US dollar is not backed by oil. Since the end of the Bretton Woods System in 1971, no physical commodity has backed the dollar. However, the petrodollar system creates a close link between the dollar and the global oil trade, maintaining the value of the dollar through constant demand for it in international markets.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
WTI Dips as Israel Avoids Targeting Iran’s Oil: What’s Next?The West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $70.60 during Thursday's London session. The price edged lower following reports that Israel has assured the United States it will not target Iran’s nuclear or oil facilities in its planned retaliatory attacks. This news, as reported by senior Biden administration officials and the Wall Street Journal, came after the US sought to prevent further escalation in the Middle East to avoid a potential surge in oil prices.
Geopolitical Tensions in the Middle East and Oil Prices
Oil markets have been on edge due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly following the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Any potential retaliation involving Iran has been closely watched, given Iran’s role as a major oil producer in the region. Had Israel planned to target Iran’s oil infrastructure, it could have led to significant supply disruptions, pushing oil prices higher. For now, traders are breathing a sigh of relief with the promise from Israel to avoid targeting these facilities, but geopolitical tensions still remain a key factor that could influence WTI in the near future. Should tensions escalate further, WTI prices could quickly rebound on supply concerns.
OPEC and IEA Cut Global Oil Demand Forecasts
This week also brought another major development for oil markets as both the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered their forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2024. The IEA now estimates global oil demand will grow by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd), bringing total demand to 104.3 million bpd next year, which is 300,000 bpd below previous estimates.
These cuts are being driven by several factors, including the weakening global economic outlook and persistent challenges in key oil-consuming regions. In particular, China’s economic stimulus measures have failed to provide a meaningful boost to oil demand, further weighing on oil prices. This downward revision in demand growth expectations has created additional headwinds for crude oil prices, contributing to the recent decline in WTI.
Technical Outlook: Bearish Sentiment But Potential Long Retracement
From a technical standpoint, WTI is currently trading within a key demand area, suggesting that some buyers may step in to support prices. While the forecast based on seasonality points toward a bearish trend in the near term, there are some indications that a deeper long retracement could occur.
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows that institutional investors, also known as "smart money," are maintaining long positions, indicating potential underlying support for oil prices. This dynamic suggests that while prices may experience further pressure in the short term, a retracement to the upside could occur if demand for oil begins to pick up or if geopolitical tensions resurface with greater intensity.
Conclusion: WTI Traders Remain Cautious Amid Mixed Signals
For now, WTI remains in a delicate position, influenced by a mix of geopolitical risks, lower global demand forecasts, and technical factors. The assurance from Israel that its retaliatory strikes will avoid targeting Iran’s oil infrastructure has alleviated some immediate concerns about a spike in oil prices. However, the ongoing geopolitical situation remains fluid, and any sudden escalation could quickly reverse the current price trajectory.
At the same time, the reduced demand growth outlook from both OPEC and the IEA creates a bearish overhang for crude prices. With China’s stimulus measures failing to spark a meaningful recovery in demand, traders will be closely watching for any new developments that could shift the balance of supply and demand in the oil market.
In summary, WTI may continue to face downward pressure in the short term, but a potential long retracement remains on the table, especially if market conditions or geopolitical tensions shift in the coming days. For now, traders are likely to stay cautious, awaiting clearer signals before taking decisive positions.
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Crude oil - selling pressure again?
Crude prices were firmer in early trade this morning, making back a proportion of yesterday’s sharp losses. The jump came after the US said that it plans to purchase crude oil to replenish its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. But the gains so far fall well short of what’s needed to take crude back to Friday’s close which saw front-month WTI trading close to $72 per barrel. Oil gapped lower as it reopened on Sunday night as details emerged of Israel’s retaliation for Iran’s missile bombardment earlier this month. Israel’s attack focused on military targets, including Iranian air defences, as well as missile and drone production and launch facilities. There was widespread relief that Israel chose not to attack Iran’s oil and nuclear infrastructure, and this in turn could give Iran a way out from taking tit-for-tat measures with all the escalation risk such a move would have. So, with oil supply from the region still unaffected, and global demand growth forecast to slow further, it looks as if the path of least resistance is down, at least in the medium term. Front-month WTI could be in the process of completing a near-text book head and shoulders pattern, particularly if prices were to retest the September lows around $65.
Continue to short crude oilDear traders, you need to be cautious when trading. You must set stop loss and take profit for each transaction. This can better protect your account from being stuck. I will continue to update the crude oil trading strategy.
API data crude oil inventory is bearish. So far, the market has not responded to the API data. That is to say, the EIA in the evening is also likely to be bearish. The continuous rise in the past few days mentioned yesterday is the abc three waves after the end of the 5th wave. Lao Li re-looked at the market today and saw that it was a 4-wave rise. The US$64.61 is the end point of the main decline of the 3rd wave. The starting point of the three waves is US$79.70. Of course, this number of waves is valid at present. Once the situation in the Middle East continues to escalate, the market will inevitably break through the starting point of the 3rd wave of US$79.70. Therefore, we must follow the real-time fluctuations of the market at any time to update the number of waves in real time. So today, Lao Li will not consider whether the situation in the Middle East will escalate, because we can't know when these guys in the Middle East will make moves again. As soon as we see the news of the start of the fight in the Middle East, we will stop shorting immediately and follow the news to make a short-term long. Therefore, today's idea is still mainly to take risks and short.
1. Go short at $75.30, stop loss 30 pips, take profit $72.50. (Short aggressively at $74.80)
2. Go long at $72.20, stop loss 30 pips, take profit $73.70.
3. If the short position of strategy 1 is stopped out, go short again at $76.15, stop loss 30 pips, take profit $74.
Crude Oil WTI, final leg downWTI in the final leg towards long term support (62$). Around that price level, you can find multiple prior lows, the lower Mogalef volatility band, the YTD VWAP 3 SD band, and very oversold levels
Note that below that support level, there's nothing stopping the price from going down to the 43$ level, as very little volume was traded in the 40$ to 60$ range and there's no strong pivot points.
Please share your thoughts!
WTI SellI shared 2 days ago big picture about WTI. And I would like to buy from ~66,30. There is a gift from ~63,30 second buy point. Now I am going to sell from ~73.00 but I will watch ~71,50 point.
USOIL BULLS ARE STRONG HERE|LONG
Hello, Friends!
It makes sense for us to go long on USOIL right now from the support line below with the target of 71.76 because of the confluence of the two strong factors which are the general uptrend on the previous 1W candle and the oversold situation on the lower TF determined by it’s proximity to the lower BB band.
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Crude Oil (WTI) may rise to 69.90 - 70.65Pivot
67.85
Our preference
Long positions above 67.85 with targets at 69.90 & 70.65 in extension.
Alternative scenario
Below 67.85 look for further downside with 67.25 & 66.70 as targets.
Comment
The RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.
Supports and resistances
71.35
70.65
69.90
68.94 Last
67.85
67.25
66.70
Number of asterisks represents the strength of support and resistance levels.
Oil ShortLooking to short Oil. After the large gap from weekend news regarding the strikes on Iran being more about retaliation than targeting the manufacturing supplies there is some downside potential for Oil. Currently trading below the gap, I am looking to trade Oil lower before buying it back up. Buy's right now do not make sense for the strategy.
Confluences for the short:
-38% fibo
-Key Level
-Trendline break and retest
Entry is now
Stop loss is set around 69.64, any higher and the idea is inactive as Oil should begin to push higher after breaking the nearest resistance.
Targeting the next support and resistance at the lows created in September.
*Remember this is not financial advice I post on here more to give an idea of trading and how I look at the market.
Never the less, trade safe and catch you later traders ▲
US-Oil will further push upside After Testing TrendlineHello Traders
In This Chart XTIUSD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET
today XTIUSD analysis 👆
🟢This Chart includes_ (XTIUSD market update)
🟢What is The Next Opportunity on XTIUSD Market
🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit
This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
