Fear and Greed: How Extreme Emotions Can Wreck Your TradesThereโs an old saying on Wall Street: Markets are driven by just two emotions โ fear and greed. Itโs been quoted so many times itโs practically clichรฉ, but like most clichรฉs, itโs got a thick slice of truth baked in.
Fear makes you sell the bottom. Greed makes you buy the top. Together, theyโre the dysfunctional couple that wrecks your portfolio, sets your confidence on fire, and leaves you staring at your trading screen, wallowing in disappointment.
But hereโs the good news: youโre not alone. Everyone โ from the newbie scalper with a $500 account to the fund manager with a Bloomberg terminal and a caffeine drip โ fights these exact same emotional demons.
Letโs break down how fear and greed mess with your trades, and more importantly, what to do about it.
The Greed Trap: From Champagne Dreams to Margin Calls
Add some more to this oneโฆ this oneโs going to the moon . Suddenly, youโre maxing out leverage on a hot altcoin because your cousinโs barber said it's โthe next Solana.โ
This is how traders end up buying tops. Not because they lack information โ weโve got more charts, market data , and indicators than ever before โ but because they chase the feeling. The high. The fantasy of catching a once-in-a-lifetime move. Safe to say thatโs not investing, thatโs fantasy trading.
Greed doesnโt show up in your P&L right away. At first, it may reward you. You get a few wins. Maybe you double your account in a week. You start browsing the million-dollar houses. You post a couple of wins on X. Youโre unstoppableโฆ until youโre not.
Then comes the inevitable slap. The market reverses. You didnโt take profits because โitโs just a pullback.โ Your unrealized gains evaporate. You panic. You sell the bottom. And just like that, youโre back where you started โ only now with a bruised ego and fewer chips on the table.
The Fear Spiral: Paralysis, Panic, and the Art of Missing Every Rally
Fear doesnโt need a market crash to show up. Sometimes all it takes is a bad nightโs sleep and a red candle.
Fear tells you to cut winners early โ just in case. Fear reminds you of every losing trade youโve ever taken, every blown stop loss, every time you told yourself, โI knew I shouldโve stayed out.โ
Itโs what makes you exit a long position at break-even, only to watch it rip 20% after youโre out. Itโs what keeps you on the sidelines during the best days of the year. Itโs what turns potential gains into chronic hesitation.
And the worst part? Fear disguises itself as โdiscipline.โ You think youโre being cautious, but youโre really just self-sabotaging under the banner of risk management. Yes, there's a difference between being prudent and being petrified. One saves your capital. The other strangles it.
The Greed-Fear Cycle: The Emotional Roundabout That Never Ends
Hereโs how the emotional hamster wheel usually goes:
You start with greed. You chase something because it looks like easy money.
You get smacked by the market. Now youโre afraid.
You hesitate. You miss the recovery.
You get FOMO. You jump back inโฆ late.
The cycle repeats. Only now your account is lighter, and your confidence is shot.
Wash. Rinse. Regret. Repeat.
This cycle is what turns many promising traders into burnt-out bagholders. Itโs not a lack of intelligence or strategy โ itโs the inability to manage emotions in a game where emotions are everything.
The Emotional Gym
You canโt eliminate fear and greed โ theyโre wired into our monkey brain. But you can train your emotional responses the same way you train a muscle.
How? Structure, repetition, and brutal honesty.
Start with a trading journal . Not a Dear Diary, but a cold, clinical log of what you did and why. Include your emotional state. Were you excited? Anxious? Overconfident? Bored? (Yes, boredom is a silent killer. Itโs how people end up revenge trading gold futures at 2AM.)
Review it weekly. Look for patterns. Did you always overtrade after three green trades in a row? Did your losses happen when you broke your own rules? Bingo. Now you have something to fix.
The Rules Are the Ritual
Every seasoned trader eventually realizes this: rules are freedom. The more emotion you remove from the decision-making process, the more consistent your results.
Set rules for:
Entry criteria
Risk per trade
Stop placement
When to sit out
Then โ and this is key โ follow them even when you donโt feel like it. Especially when you donโt feel like it. If it feels uncomfortable, thatโs usually a sign youโre on the right path. Youโre breaking your old habits.
And if you break a rule? Cool. Own it. Log it. Learn from it. No need to self-flagellate, but donโt pretend it didnโt happen. This is the emotional weightlifting that builds your trading spine.
Story Time: The Trader Who Cried โBreakoutโ
Let me tell you about Dave. Dave loved breakouts. Heโd buy every single one, no matter the volume, structure, or trend. His logic? If it breaks the line, itโs going up. Simple.
One week, Dave hit it big on a meme stock that doubled in a day. His greed kicked in hard. He started adding leverage, sizing up, swinging for the fences.
You can guess what happened. Three fakeouts later, Dave blew half his account. So he stopped trading. Fear took over.
Weeks passed. He watched from the sidelines as clean setups came and went. When he finally got back in, he was so timid he under-sized every position and exited too early. He made nothing โ but the emotional damage cost him more than the red trades ever did.
Dave didnโt lose because he lacked a strategy. He lost because he was letting emotions drive. And when fear and greed are in the driverโs seat, they donโt use the brakes.
Be the Trader Your Future Self Will Thank (Not Tank)
Markets may sometimes be chaos wrapped in noise wrapped in hype (as weโve seen with the recent drama around Trumpโs tariffs ). There will always be something to fear, and always something to chase. But if you can stay calm while others are panic-buying Nike stock NYSE:NKE or rage-selling the S&P 500 SP:SPX , youโve already got an edge.
The best traders arenโt fearless or greedless. Theyโre just better at recognizing when those emotions show up โ and they donโt let them steer the ship. Theyโve built processes to trade through uncertainty, not react to it.
So next time you feel that itch to click โBuyโ at the top or โSellโ at the bottom, pause. Ask yourself: Is this my setup โ or is this just emotion pretending to be insight? Take another look at the Screener , scroll through the latest News , and take a minute to think it over.
Final Thoughts: Feelings Arenโt Signals
Trading is emotional โ but trading on emotion is a fast track to regret.
Fear will always be there. So will greed. But you donโt have to let them wreck your trades. Build systems. Log your trades. Know yourself. Thatโs how you survive the jungle with your capital โ and sanity โ intact.
And if nothing else, remember this: Warren Buffett didnโt get rich by panic-buying breakouts on a Tuesday morning.
Let's hear it from you now โ how do you deal with fear and greed in your trades? Or are you still fighting them in the wild?
USSP500CFD trade ideas
We Now Have Conditions for Limit Down Days in SPXMassive intraday pop today but it did not manage to advance much past the last high.
The size of the move today means if we had a big one day rejection of it that would now be a limit down day.
Which this specific thing does not have to happen (could down trend over a few days) break the low in this setp would give a strong case for limit down days to come.
It's not a term I use loosely.
In an optimistic outlook today we have a bullish wave 3 and the foothills of a new uptrend (or at least bull trap).
But if today rejects and turns out was a big bull trap - then we'd be about to head into the crash section of the move.
If you think it's been crashy so far - know that the second half is not slower than the first.
US Stocks Wipe Out $6.6 Trillion in Two DaysโWhat Just Happened?Shoutout to the real MVPs of April: the traders who did absolutely nothing. You market wizards, zen masters of the sidelines โ while others were busy buying the dip that kept on dipping, you outperformed the S&P 500 SP:SPX , avoiding the nastiest market faceplant since the Covid crash of March 2020.
Since April 2, Liquidation Day , Liberation Day , the S&P 500 SP:SPX has nosedived a brutal 10%. Thatโs officially a correction โ the kind that makes you stare out your window like a philosopher, questioning your life choices, your portfolio, and whether you really needed that Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA call.
This isnโt just a dip. Itโs a market reality check served with extra salt. So raise a (half empty?) glass to the ones who stayed flat โ you just made Warren Buffett proud . In a world of overtrading, doing nothing was the most alpha move of all.
Everyone who checked the market at least once on Thursday or Friday (even today when futures markets were all red ) knows what that is all about.
Itโs Trumpโs tariff rollout coming like a wrecking ball. While the US President portrays his efforts as a fair and even lenient response to other countriesโ trade policies with the US, investors don't seem to think so.
In just two days, Thursday and Friday, the US stock market washed out $6.6 trillion. The violent selloff threw the Nasdaq Composite NASDAQ:IXIC into a bear market (down 20% from its peak) and the S&P 500 into correction territory. The broad-based Wall Street darling waved goodbye to 6% on Friday, extending its 4.8% loss from the previous day.
On Thursday, Trump unveiled his new plan to boost the US economy through reciprocal tariffs. China got hammered with a total of 54% , while Europe wasnโt spared either, slapped with a flat 20%.
Some uninhabited islands also made the list โ Heard and McDonald Islands (Australia's icy outpost) and Jan Mayen (Norway's frozen Arctic rock) got served a 10% tariff.
Now, the thing with tariffs is, they tend to backfire. Because they are paid by the party receiving them, i.e. US companies, they hike the prices of imported goods, squeeze consumers, and isolate the country imposing them. They strain international trade relationships, disrupt supply chains, and โ as history shows โ often spark retaliation.
And thatโs exactly what happened. On Friday, China hit back hard, launching a 34% tariff barrage on US imports โ a sharp counter-strike against Trumpโs escalating trade war tactics.
What did Trump say on the matter? โCHINA PLAYED IT WRONG, THEY PANICKED - THE ONE THING THEY CANNOT AFFORD TO DO!โ he said on his social media platform.
Just as the markets were a dumpster fire on Friday, Federal Reserve boss Jay Powell gave a speech at a business journalists' conference. In his remarks, he said that Trumpโs tariffs would cause โhigher inflation and slower growth.โ
โIt is now becoming clear that the tariff increases will be significantly larger than expected. The same is likely to be true of the economic effects,โ Powell said.
Trump's response?
โThis would be a PERFECT time for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to cut Interest Rates. He is always โlate,โ but he could now change his image, and quickly,โ Trump wrote in a post. โEnergy prices are down, Interest Rates are down, Inflation is down, even Eggs are down 69%, and Jobs are UP, all within two months - A BIG WIN for America. CUT INTEREST RATES, JEROME, AND STOP PLAYING POLITICS!โ
So here we are โ $6.6 trillion lighter, futures in free fall, inflation fears reignited, and a full-blown trade war back on the table. The Fedโs caught in a political crossfire, Trumpโs turning up the heat, and markets are flashing every red light imaginable.
On top of it all, corporate earnings are just around the corner with the big banks on Wall Street kicking off the first-quarter reporting at the end of this week. Keep track of all big reports in the Earnings Calendar .
One thingโs for sure: this isnโt the time to trade on hope or headlines. Itโs the time to trade with eyes wide open, risk tightly managed, and a clear understanding that your next move could shape the rest of your year. Most of all, donโt panic .
Off to you now: are you sitting this one out like Buffett โ or are you moving in before the smoke clears?
The Art of Doing Nothing: Why Tape Watchers Beat Impulse TradersLess is more. In this Idea we dig into the trading philosophy where less action means more traction. Itโs the dispute between the chart readers and the button clickers.
Some swear by this: the smartest trading strategy sometimes involves sitting on your hands and embracing the sweet, underrated beauty of doing absolutely nothing. The Italians figured this out ages agoโthey call it Dolce Far Niente , the sweetness of doing nothing.
But can a trader really get away with just kicking back and waiting while sipping espresso (or the mezcal martini type if you got your Patagonia vest)? Actually, yesโand it often pays better than impulsive clicks.
Letโs talk about why chart-watching and tape-reading often outsmart trigger-happy trading.
๐คทโโ๏ธ Doing Nothing Is Harder Than It Looks
First off, letโs acknowledge something painfully true: not trading is tough. Seriously tough. Trading never sleeps, notifications flash at you like slot machines. Headlines constantly scream about massive opportunities you're missing โ Tesla's NASDAQ:TSLA latest rally or goldโs OANDA:XAUUSD record-breaking surge powered by tariff jitters.
The pressure to click, buy, sell, or do somethingโanything!โcan be overwhelming. Itโs why thereโs something called a heatmap โ because itโs hot, hot, hot!
But hereโs the secret: successful traders know that impulse trading isn't a strategy; it's just financial caffeine. Instead, chart watchersโthe cool-headed crowd who sit back, patiently observing price movements, market structure, and volume flowโtend to win the marathon, while impulse traders burn out in the sprint.
๐ธ The Dolce Far Niente Method
Ever watched an old Italian movie? There's usually a scene featuring someone lounging effortlessly, soaking in lifeโs beauty without lifting a fingerโthis is Dolce Far Niente.
In trading terms, itโs the act of patiently waiting, savoring the calm between trades, watching your charts like an old-school tape reader that would make Jesse Livermore proud. (โA prudent speculator never argues with the tape. Markets are never wrong, opinions often are.โ)
A good setup is worth the wait. Instead of diving into trades, relax, observe, and let opportunities come to you. Because the reality is, not every candlestick needs your immediate response. Markets donโt reward hyperactivity; they reward patience and calculated action.
๐คฉ Tape Reading vs. Trading: The Difference Between Winning and Clicking
The lost art of tape reading, as hedge fund guru Paul Tudor Jones calls it, is about carefully tracking price action, volume, and market sentiment. Itโs far less exciting than rapid-fire day trading but potentially more rewarding.
โWhen it comes to trading macro,โ Tudor Jones says, โyou cannot rely solely on fundamentals; you have to be a tape reader, which is something of a lost art form.
Learning when to sit quietly (doing nothing) and when to strike decisively is the hallmark of trading mastery.
โ Real Traders Donโt ChaseโThey Anticipate
Waiting isnโt passive. Itโs actually active restraintโa calculated choice to do nothing until the odds tip decidedly in your favor. Letโs be clear: chart watchers arenโt asleep at the wheel; they're carefully steering clear of trouble until clear setups emerge.
The result? Better entry points, clearer risk-reward ratios, and fewer sleepless nights worrying about impulsive mistakes.
โThe trick in investing is just to sit there and watch pitch after pitch go by and wait for the one right in your sweet spot. And if people are yelling, โSwing, you bum!,โ ignore them.โ Bonus points if you know who said that!
So, next time your finger hovers over that "buy" or "sell" button, ask yourself if youโre trading strategically or just for the dopamine hit. Remember the Italian saying, take a breath, embrace the tranquility, and let patience become your trading superpower.
Let us know in the comments: Are you team โclick less, wait more,โ or do you find yourself riding the impulse wave fairly frequently?
S&P500 - The Correction Is Over Now!S&P500 ( TVC:SPX ) is retesting massive support:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis๐๐ป
Over the past couple of days, we have been seeing a quite harsh stock market "crash" with an overall correction of about -20%. However, as we are speaking the S&P500 is already retesting a major confluence of support and if we see bullish confirmation, this drop might be over soon.
Levels to watch: $4.900
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): LONG to resistance area of 5445.2.Explaining what is happening in terms of wave theory is quite difficult, but always possible. Of course, geopolitics has been affecting the price a lot lately, but even in this chaos there are regularities.
Let's take a look at the wave markup. I believe that there is a big correction going on at the moment. Most likely it is not finished yet and has just started to form wave โBโ, which means that wave โCโ is coming, but I still want to see an upward movement to the resistance area at 5445.2. The price has been in a downtrend for too long and I think a correction is very likely. Well, let's see.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
S&P500 Dead Cat Bounce or V-shaped Recovery?The S&P500 index (SPX) saw a remarkable turnaround yesterday after the Wall Street opening. The early futures sell-off came very close to the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been the ultimate Support level since the March 2009 Housing Crisis bottom (the last major Bear Cycle).
It supported the 2022 Inflation Crisis, the 2018 U.S. - China Trade War, the 2015 E.U./ Oil Crisis and 2011 correction. It only broke during the irregularity of the March 2020 COVID flash crash.
Note that the 1W RSI hitting 27.30 has only happened during the COVID crash and the actual March 2009 Housing Crisis Bottom. At the same time, the index reached the All Time High (ATH) trend-line (dashed0 of the High before the 2022 Inflation Crisis (previous correction phase). As this chart shows, previous ATH trend-lines have never been broken during the correction phases that followed them.
In any case, the million dollar question is of course this: Was yesterday a Dead Cat Bounce inside the new Bear Cycle or we are ahead of a V-shaped recovery? Well technically it depends on the 1W MA200 (the market needs 1W candles to close above it) while fundamentally if depends on potential trade deals and of course the Fed (the market needs rate cut assurances).
If this is a V-shaped Recovery indeed, there is no reason not to expect the market to follow all previous rebounds of 1W MA200 corrections that weren't Bear Cycles (Bear Cycles on this chart are 2008 and 2022).
As you can see, all rebounds have been sharp, indeed V-shaped recoveries, ranging from 20 to 27 weeks (140 - 189 days) until they broke their previous High. So this indicates that technically, SPX should make new ATH by October 13 2025 the latest (and September 02 earliest). Of course this is just a projection, this time we have no COVID shutdowns, no Grexits or Brexits, no Oil crises, it is all due to one fact, the tariffs and if deals are reached and the Fed delivers the much needed rat cuts, the recovery may be even faster, as sharp as the correction has been.
The facts are on the historic data on the chart. The conclusions are yours.
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US500 Drops 22% in 7 Weeks-What's Next?US500 Drops 22% in 7 Weeks-What's Next?
On February 20, 2025, the US500 index reached a record high of 6147, a level it had never touched before.
Many expected Trump to support the stock market further, but instead, his tariffs and ongoing market disruptions led to the opposite outcome.
In just 1.5 months, the US500 dropped by nearly 22%, hitting a strong support zone near 4810. Buyers stepped in at this level, helping the index recover 8%.
From a technical perspective, the US500 appears poised for a bullish wave from this zone. However, its future direction heavily depends on Trumpโs tariffs and his economic plans for the United States.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
โค๏ธPS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading dayโค๏ธ
Is Trump Intentionally Crashing the Econ?I want to preface this by saying I'm a TA and this is just dinner table chat as far as I am concerned.
I've no interest what-so-ever in why a market moves. All the money is made based on how it moves- and the TA is working great for that.
Just sharing a theory that is floating about (It's not mine).
The idea is Trump is intentionally crashing the markets in an attempt to reduce the debt burden on the US.
This would work by this sequence of events;
1 - Markets crash. Making people who care about their money anxious and less eager to take risk in the stocks (etc) markets.
2 - This money moves to bonds. Pushing bond prices up. Rising bond prices push interest rates down. So crashing the econ can lead to lower interest rates.
3 - At a lower interest rate (say 2%) the US can refi its debt.
Inside of this theory, everything we're seeing is part of a calculated plan to, literally, force stocks lower.
S&P 500 Pullback Nearing End? Hammer + Elliott Wave Say Rebound!The S&P 500 Index ( FOREXCOM:SPX500 ) is one of the most important indexes in the financial market these days , with the cryptocurrency market and especially Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) having a strong correlation with this index .
After Donald Trump suspended tariffs on 90 countries (except China) , the S&P 500 Index started to rise and seems to have managed to break through the Resistance zone($5,284-$5,094) and is pulling back to this zone .
One of the signs of a reversa l of the S&P 500 Index can be the formation of the Hammer Candlestick Pattern , which announces the end of the pullback .
In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that the S&P 500 Index is completing a corrective wave that could be in the form of a main wave 4 ( it is correcting both in time and price ).
I expect the S&P 500 Index to resume its upward trend in the coming hours, if nothing special is released , and to reach the Resistance zone($5,680-$5,500) and Yearly Pivot Point . If this happens, today's Bitcoin analysis could also be correct .
Note: In the worst case, if the S&P 500 Index touches $5,050, we should expect a further decline in the S&P 500 Index and Bitcoin.
Do you think the S&P 500 Index will return to an upward trend, or is this increase temporary?
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
S&P 500 Index Analyze (SPX500USD),1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the โ
' like 'โ
button ๐๐ & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
S&P 500 Index Under Pressure โ Another -10% Drop Incoming?Today, I want to analyze the S&P 500 Index ( FOREXCOM:SPX500 ) for you. This index is one of the most important indices in the US stock market , which has been determining the direction of parallel financial markets such as crypto and especially Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) for the past few days, so an analysis of this index can be important for us.
The S&P 500 Index started to fall after Donald Trump imposed new tariffs on countries around the world, which was like a coronavirus .
The question is whether this fall is temporary or will continue . To answer this question, we need to consider many parameters, but if we look at the sds chart from a technical analysis chart , we can expect a further decline .
The S&P 500 Index is moving near the Resistance zone($5,284-$5,095) and is completing a pullback . It also lost its important Uptrend lines last week, which is not good news for the S&P 500 Index and US stocks .
From an Elliott wave theory , the S&P 500 IndexS&P looks like it has completed the main wave 4 , and we should expect the next decline(-10%) .
I expect the S&P 500 Index to attack the Heavy Support zone($4,820-$4,530) at least once more. The area where we can expect the S&P 500 Index to pull back is the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) .
What do you think? Will the S&P 500 Index continue its downward trend, or was this decline temporary?
Note: If the S&P 500 Index touches $5,408, we can expect further Pumps.
Note: There is a possibility of a Bear Trap near the Heavy Support zone($4,820-$4,530) and PRZ.
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
S&P 500 Index Analyze (SPX500USD),4-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the โ
' like 'โ
button ๐๐ & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
What are Tariffs? How They Work and Why They Matter to You?For centuries, tariffs have played a crucial role in global trade, safeguarding domestic industries, shaping international relations, and influencing economic policies. While they often dominate headlines during trade wars and economic policy debates, many people still donโt fully understand what tariffs are, why they are used, and how they impact the economy.
This comprehensive guide covers:
โฆฟ What tariffs are and how they work
โฆฟ Different types of tariffs
โฆฟ Why governments impose tariffs
โฆฟ The economic, political, and social effects of tariffs.
โฆฟ Historical and modern examples
โฆฟ The debate between protectionism and free trade
โฆฟ Tariffs in different economic systems
โฆฟ The future of tariffs in a globalized world
By the end of this article, youโll have a decent understanding of tariffs and their role in the global economy.
๐ค What Are Tariffs?
A tariff is a tax imposed by a government on imported goods and services. The primary purpose of tariffs is to increase the cost of foreign products, making domestically produced goods more attractive to consumers. This serves several economic and political functions, such as protecting domestic industries, generating government revenue, and addressing trade imbalances.
๐ How Do Tariffs Work?
A government sets a tariff rate on imported goods (e.g., 25% on foreign cars).
Importers must pay this tax when bringing goods into the country.
This increases the cost of imported goods, enhancing the competitiveness of domestic alternatives.
Domestic industries benefit from reduced foreign competition.
The government collects revenue from the tariff.
๐ฆธโโ Who Pays the Tariff?
Importers: These businesses or individuals directly pay the tariff when they bring goods into the country. This increases their costs.
Businesses: Since importers face higher costs, businesses that rely on imported goods often pass these costs onto consumers by increasing prices.
Consumers: Ultimately, the general public bears the cost as they pay higher prices for goods affected by tariffs.
๐ Types of Tariffs
Governments employ various tariffs depending on their economic goals and trade policies. Some of these are:
1๏ธโฃ Ad Valorem Tariffs
An ad valorem tariff is a percentage-based tariff calculated on the value of the imported goods. The tax amount increases or decreases with the price of the product.
Example: A 10% tariff on imported TVs means a $1,000 TV incurs a $100 tariff.
Usage: Commonly used for luxury goods, automobiles, and consumer electronics.
2๏ธโฃ Specific Tariffs
A specific tariff is a fixed fee charged per unit of imported goods, regardless of price.
Example: $3 per barrel of imported oil.
Usage: Often used for commodities like oil, wheat, and alcohol.
3๏ธโฃ Compound Tariffs
A compound tariff includes both a percentage-based tax (Ad valorem) and a fixed fee on imports (Specific). This means importers pay a fixed fee per unit as well as a percentage of the itemโs value.
Example: A 5% tax plus $2 per imported cheese wheel.
Usage: Applied to goods where both quantity and value affect the market, such as food products and industrial materials.
4๏ธโฃ Tariff-Rate Quotas (TRQs)
A TRQ allows a limited quantity of an imported good to enter at a lower tariff rate. After the quota is reached, extra imports are taxed at a higher rate.
Example: One of the most well-known examples of a TRQ is the U.S. Sugar Tariff-Rate Quota. The United States allows a certain quantity of sugar to be imported each year at a lower tariff rate. Any sugar imports within the quota limit are subject to a low tariff (e.g., 5%).
However, once the quota is exceeded, any additional sugar imports face a much higher tariff (e.g., 20%). This system ensures that domestic sugar producers remain competitive while still allowing controlled imports to meet demand.
Another example is the European Union's TRQ on Beef Imports. The EU permits a specific amount of high-quality beef imports (e.g., from the U.S. and Canada) at a lower tariff. Once this quota is filled, any additional beef imports are taxed at a significantly higher rate. This policy helps protect EU cattle farmers while maintaining trade agreements with international suppliers.
5๏ธโฃ Protective Tariffs
A protective tariff helps local industries by making imported goods more costly, reducing foreign competition.
Example: The U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on Chinese steel to protect domestic steel manufacturers.
Usage: Commonly used in industries facing strong foreign competition, such as steel, automotive, and textiles.
6๏ธโฃ Revenue Tariffs
A revenue tariff is mainly designed to raise money for the government, not to shield local industries.
Example: In the 19th century, tariffs were the main source of revenue for the U.S. government before income taxes were introduced.
Usage: Often applied to goods that do not have strong domestic competition but are widely consumed, such as alcohol and tobacco.
โ Why Do Governments Impose Tariffs?
1๏ธโฃ Protecting Domestic Industries
Tariffs shield local businesses from cheaper foreign competitors, helping domestic industries grow.
Example: U.S. steel tariffs in 2018 benefited domestic steel manufacturers.
2๏ธโฃ Generating Government Revenue
Before modern taxation systems, tariffs were a key source of revenue for governments.
Example: In the 1800s, tariffs accounted for 90% of U.S. federal revenue.
3๏ธโฃ National Security Concerns
Some industries, like defense and technology, are crucial for national security, and governments impose tariffs to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers.
Example: The U.S. limits imports of rare earth minerals to ensure a domestic supply chain for defense technologies.
4๏ธโฃ Retaliation in Trade Wars
Countries impose tariffs to address unfair trade practices or economic conflicts.
For instance, during the trade war between the United States and China, both countries imposed taxes on each other's goods
5๏ธโฃ Preventing Dumping
Dumping occurs when a country exports goods at below-market prices to eliminate competition.
Example: The U.S. imposed tariffs on Chinese solar panels due to concerns about dumping.
โ๏ธ Pros and Cons of Tariffs
Pros
โ
Protects local jobs and industries
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Encourages domestic production
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Generates government revenue
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Enhances national security by reducing reliance on foreign goods
Cons
โ Increases prices for consumers
โ Can lead to trade wars and economic retaliation
โ Encourages inefficiency in domestic industries
โ Disrupts global supply chains
๐ Historical and Modern Examples of Tariffs
1. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act (1930)
The U.S. imposed tariffs on over 20k imported goods.
Result: Other countries retaliated, global trade dropped by 66%, and the Great Depression worsened.
2. Trumpโs Tariffs on China (2018-2020)
The United States levied tariffs on $360 billion worth of Chinese goods.
China retaliated, affecting U.S. agriculture exports.
Result: Some U.S. industries benefited, but consumers faced higher prices.
3. The European Unionโs Tariffs on U.S. Goods (2021)
The EU imposed tariffs on American whiskey, motorcycles, and jeans in response to U.S. steel tariffs.
Result: Brands like Harley-Davidson saw reduced sales in Europe.
โ๏ธ Tariffs vs. Free Trade: The Big Debate
The debate between tariffs and free trade is a fundamental discussion in global economics and trade policy. This debate revolves around whether governments should impose tariffs (taxes on imported goods) or embrace free trade (minimal to no restrictions on imports and exports).
โ Free Trade (No Tariffs)
Free trade is the unrestricted movement of goods and services across borders without tariffs or other trade barriers. Advocates argue that it fosters economic efficiency and global cooperation.
โ
โ
Advantages of Free Trade
Lower Prices for Consumers โ Without tariffs, imported goods are cheaper, leading to more affordable products.
Increased Economic Growth โ When countries trade freely, they specialize in what they do best, leading to higher productivity and economic expansion.
More Competition = Better Products โ Companies must compete on quality and innovation rather than relying on government protection.
Stronger Global Relations โ Open markets encourage cooperation between nations, reducing the risk of economic conflicts.
Access to More Goods and Services โ Consumers enjoy a greater variety of products at lower costs.
โโ Disadvantages of Free Trade
Job Losses in Unprotected Industries โ Domestic industries that can't compete with cheaper imports may shrink or shut down.
Dependence on Foreign Suppliers โ A country may become overly reliant on other nations for essential goods (e.g., medical supplies, electronics).
Potential Trade Deficits โ Countries that import more than they export may struggle with imbalances in trade.
โ Protectionism (Using Tariffs)
Protectionism refers to economic policies that restrict imports through tariffs, quotas, or other barriers to shield domestic industries from foreign competition.
โ
โ
Advantages of Tariffs
Protects Local Jobs and Industries โ Domestic businesses have a better chance to compete without being undercut by cheaper imports.
Reduces Dependence on Foreign Competitors โ A country can maintain its own manufacturing and production capabilities, especially in critical industries like steel, energy, and food.
Generates Government Revenue โ Tariffs provide a source of income for governments, which can be reinvested in public services.
Prevents Dumping โ Tariffs discourage foreign companies from flooding the market with artificially cheap goods to destroy domestic competition.
โโ Disadvantages of Tariffs
Higher Prices for Consumers โ Since imported goods are taxed, businesses pass the extra costs to customers.
Risk of Trade Wars โ When one country imposes tariffs, others retaliate, leading to economic conflicts that hurt all parties involved.
Encourages Inefficiency โ Without foreign competition, domestic companies may become complacent and innovate less.
Disrupts Global Supply Chains โ Many industries rely on international suppliers; tariffs can increase production costs and delays.
โ๏ธ The Future of Tariffs in a Globalized World
As economies become more interconnected, tariffs are often seen as barriers to global trade.
Emerging industries, such as digital services, face new trade policy challenges that traditional tariffs do not cover.
With globalization, many nations favor free trade agreements (FTAs) like USMCA and the EU single market to reduce trade barriers.
Climate-related tariffs, such as carbon border taxes, may become more common as nations try to incentivize environmentally friendly trade practices.
๐ Closing Thoughts
Tariffs remain one of the most powerful - and controversial - tools in economic policy. Like a thermostat for trade, they can be adjusted to protect domestic industries, but risk overheating the economy with unintended consequences.
History shows that while tariffs can provide temporary relief for specific sectors, they often create ripple effects across the entire economy. The steel tariffs of 2018 helped some American mills reopen, but made cars and appliances more expensive for everyone.
Neither free trade nor tariffs are perfect solutions. A balanced approach, where tariffs are selectively used for strategic industries while promoting open markets in others, is often the best path.
Each country must decide based on its economic strengths and priorities. For example, developed nations might push for free trade, while developing nations use tariffs to protect growing industries.
As trade policies continue evolving, understanding tariffs gives citizens and businesses crucial insight into how globalization affects prices, jobs, and economic security. The debate isn't about whether tariffs are "good" or "bad," but rather when and how they should be used strategically.
What are your thoughts on the ongoing U.S. tariff war? Share your opinions in the comments! ๐ฉ
I May Have this Bull Idea Horribly WrongI know it looks good at this exact moment in time but that spike move we just had was so sus. It's really the sort of thing I expect to be dealing with when following a downtrend.
Sell > big profit.
Sell > big profit
Sell > WTF was that
Oh correction > Sell > Big profit.
I could stack up odds that put the odds of a rally in this area at around 90% (Which is crazy high for the way I estimate odds).
But that might have been it. I may have terribly misjudged how deep it would be.
If I have this wrong, 4500 in MIN I've expect to hit and if that level breaks we might capitulate to 3000.
EXTREMELY STRONG WARNING TO ANYONE USING ANY OF THE BULL IDEAS I'VE EXPESSED.
If they're good, they'll be good and easy - and if not, ditch the ideas! They would be predicted to fail spectacularly if wrong.
Probably around 5170 area.
SPX500 & Nasdaq: Confluence! Confluence! Confluence!With consumer confidence off at circuit breaking levels, the market, technically, has reached extreme levels of support. Let's look at it:
Technicals:
(1) Horizontal Levels of support
(2) 50%/61.8% fib confluence
(3) exDiv1
(4) extreme indicators
(5) Chikou span testing cloud support
(6) 28% drop is SPX
All of these levels are lining up around the same location. And just like in real estate "Location! Location! Location!" is the adage; in markets, "Confluence! Confluence! Confluence!" is the adage!
S&P 500 Index Most Bullish Signal In 15 YearsThis is why it is very clear, certain, that the stock market, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is set to grow in the coming months. Last week produced the highest volume session, on the bullish side, since April/May 2010, that's 15 years. Back then, when this signal showed up, this index went to grow for years non-stop.
The SPX also produced the strongest weekly session in several decades, maybe the strongest week ever, and a bounce happened (support found) exactly at the 0.618 retracement Fib.
This is all we need to know. When the bulls enter the market and do so with force, it is because the market is set to grow. The correction produced decline of 21%. This is pretty standard. The fact that the correction happened really fast, it means that it will also have a fast end.
The low is in. The correction is over. The S&P 500 Index is set to grow.
You can be certain. If you have any doubts, just ask the chart.
Namaste.
The Stock Market (SPX) Will Also RecoverGreat news my dear friends, reader and followers, truly great news.
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is now reversing after challenging a strong support level. This level is the 0.618 Fib. retracement for the bullish wave that started after the October 2023 market low. A strong bounce is visible as soon as this level was hit.
The correction is a classic ABC and the C wave is very steep. When a move is really strong, great force, it can't last that long. So the drop happened all at once, fast, and this means a fast end as well as a strong reversal, but the reversal will not be the same.
We are more likely than not to experience a long drawn out recovery, higher highs and higher lows long-term. Higher prices next.
This is the main support level, 0.618 around 4885. If this level breaks, the next strong support sits at 4540. We are going up.
It is not only Bitcoin and the Altcoins, the stock market will also grow.
The correction is over.
Total drop amounts to a little more than 21%.
This is huge and more than enough.
The bears are satisfied. The bears are done. A bearish wave is followed by a bullish wave.
Short bearish action, long bullish action.
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.
US500 Bullish Momentum Boosted by Tariff ExemptionsUS500 Bullish Momentum Boosted by Tariff Exemptions
The US500 index may continue its upward trend after President Trump announced exemptions for smartphones, computers, and other tech products from new tariffs.
This decision eased market concerns, especially for companies like Apple, which rely heavily on manufacturing in China.
Trump had previously imposed steep tariffs on Chinese imports, but the exemptions now include semiconductors, solar cells, TV displays, and data storage devices. These changes could support further bullish movement in the market.
You may watch the analysis for further details!
Thank you!
SPX: Eye of The StormIn a hurricane the EYE of the storm is region of "calm" and even blue skies
To the unaware, the break in the clouds and the blues skies may bring a sense of relief that "the worst is over"
But the informed know that the OTHER SIDE of the storm is coming and the worst has yet to happen
IMO the aforementioned scenario accurately describes what we are about to see in markets
The Administration is slowly backing off the more severe of the tariffs
Over the weekend they removed tariffs on major electronics and associated components coming from China which should bring a sense of relief to markets
We will most likely see continued softening on the worst of the tariffs as the administration grapples with the true reality of things: MARKETS ARE IN TROUBLE
This softening will give the appearance that things will be OK and we may even see markets rally to new ALL TIME HIGHS
But a rally to new ATHs will be akin to the "eye of the storm" as just like with a Hurricane..the other side of the storm is coming
Bear Pattern Often Would Spike One More Time The swings of the week so far have created a giant pending butterfly- which may be the most important setup we've seen in SPX for a long long time - certainly the most important during this drop.
A butterfly here in its book context is a bearish pattern, but if you follow my work you'll know I always say harmonics are binary decision levels. If they work, the accurately forecast the reversal zone and then often the implied swing to follow- when they fail, they tend to indicate strong moves in the other direction.
Off a setup like this, a failure of the butterfly would be failure of the downtrend.
A successful butterfly would be a failure of the bigger overall uptrend.
It's a high stakes moment.
But bears should be aware we could be 98% right here and still face a brutal stop run.
Protecting profits from higher entries now. Ideally want to size up into a spike.
S&P500 Tariff comeback may be starting a whole new Bull Cycle!The S&P500 index (SPX) is making a remarkable comeback following the non-stop sell-off since mid-February as, following the tariff 90-day pause, it is staging a massive rebound just before touching the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
Since that was almost at the bottom of its bullish channel while the 2W RSI hit its own Higher Lows trend-line, this can technically initiate a 2-year Bull Cycle similar to those that started on the October 2022 and March 2020 bottoms (green circles).
The fact that the current correction has been almost as quick as the March 2020 COVID crash, may indicate that the recovery could be just as strong. In any event, it appears that a 7200 Target on a 2-year horizon is quite plausible, being close to he top of the bullish channel, while also under the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which got hit during both previous Bullish Legs.
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SPX Tariff Relief dips to buy: 5282 ideal, 5100 a Must-Hold zoneStonks got sold in panic then bought in fomo.
We of the Fib Faith indulge in logical serenity.
We plan and execute calmly and deliberately.
5428-5454 bounce would indicate Strong Bull.
5271-5282 Bounce would be ideal structural dip.
5109-5136 is the Must-Hold or it was a bull trap.
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