SnP500: A case for going longYesterday the index was bought up strongly from the lows with solid volume.
I'm in favor of further growth.
Set the stop loss below yesterday's low.
USSP500CFD trade ideas
SPX next 5 years outlookIn this chart I show my SPX long term view from covid recovery to about 2030.
SPX is moving in a big rising wedge, I think that on the long term prospective we're still in the 3rd bullish wave targeting 6440 area. From there I see a retracement (4th wave) to 4800 area before last bullish 5th wave to 7400 area.
From 7440 I see a sharp bearish retracement , the breaking of rising wedge will lead spx to target 4200 area.
On the medium term I think that we've to test 3320 area before targeting 6440 (completion of 3rd wave), but on the short term I see a retracement to retest 6000 area before dump to 3320.
Short SPX500Technical and fundamentals with short term sentiment open a tactical short position from here.
US500 Price ActionHello Trader,
As you can see, the market is currently moving to the downside, approaching a clearly identified Demand Zone. Remember, as I always emphasize: no liquidity, no valid zone. Therefore, I've also marked liquidity levels located just above this Demand Zone, along with a suggested safe Stop Loss (SL) placement. However, please keep in mind that no level is truly "safe" in trading, which is precisely why we always use stop losses and actively manage risk on every trade.
Additionally, I've highlighted two potential Take Profit (TP) areas: one where you might consider closing your trade early for safety, and another where you could hold your position if price action continues to move favorably.
As always, avoid greed, prioritize risk management, and trade responsibly.
Wishing you all the best and happy trading!
Thank you.
This doesn't look good for SPX500USDHi traders,
The price action of SPX500USD last week went exactly as what I've said in my outlook.
I said we could see a (corrective) upmove to the higher Weekly FVG. It depends if the upmove is corrective or impulsive what would be the move after that.
But also fundamentally we could see more longer term downside for this pair.
Price went corrective up, rejected from the Weekly FVG higher and dropped!
So next week we could see more downside for this pair.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a small correction up on a lower timeframe to trade shorts.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
S&P500 IndexIf the midline of the linear regression channel is broken, the price will continue to decline until it reaches the support line of the inner channel (in light blue), which is at one standard deviation.
In the less likely event that this support line is also broken, we have the support line of the outer channel (in yellow), which is at two standard deviations.
(Logarithmic price axis, channel starting from 2008)
Most Depressing Chart EverThis chart is what I would consider the worse case scenario. Sideways action until we hit the Great Depression trend line. The two previous lost years are a little over 16 years long from start to break out. This shows an example of we were to complete that same pattern. We are long overdue for a correction and this would bring us back to reality.
SPX retesting 5900 before dumping to 5200 areaIN my view SPX could retest 5900-5910 area before new bearish leg to 5230 area where last bullish wave will start to final tp 6444
BUY AND HOLD UNTIL OCTOBER 2025Price is scheduled to break above the current high for a 7-month run, price top is expected between 6588 and 6680 range for a steep correction. Tariffs and recession chants will have their day but history shows post war cycles never go south.
Trade safe, good luck
The morning pump - is it valid?I have my doubts the rally will last, however if they get over the previous highs it is likely going to 5700+
Liberation morningMarkets did sell off last night and the VIX did start breaking up, so I believe another leg down is upon us. However, the chance for a C wave rally from the lows is possible, so caution is necessary.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 28, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this week's trading session, the Index gapped higher, passing our completed Inner Index Rally of 5712 and setting a Mean Resistance of 5768. This target was accompanied by considerable reversal, ultimately causing a downward movement. On the final trading day of the week, the Index underwent a pronounced decline, resulting in a substantial drop that surpassed the critical target of Mean Support set at 5603. The Index is positioned to retest the completed Outer Index Dip level of 5520. An extended decline is feasible, with the possibility of targeting the subsequent Outer Index Dip at 5403 before resuming an upward rally from either of these Outer Index Dip levels.
#SPX - 2 Apr#SPX pulled back nicely to PZ yesterday before rallying 70 points, going back to resistance zone.
Overall, price action looks toppish. Could see a move down to 5525/55 but will be looking for a turn at that level for a long. If level does not hold, next strong support below is at 5400.
Today is Tariff day. Trade safe.
S&P 500 Wave Analysis – 1 April 2025
- S&P 500 reversed from support area
- Likely to rise to resistance level 5700.00
S&P 500 index recently reversed from the support area located between the support level 5500.00 (low of the previous wave (A)), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the uptrend from August.
The downward reversal from this support area stopped the earlier short-term impulse wave 1 of the downward impulse sequence (C) from the end of March.
Given the improving sentiment across the equity markets and the strength of the support level 5500.00, S&P 500 index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 5700.00.
S&P 500 Struggling Ahead of Key Economic ReportsThe S&P 500 is showing signs of weakness as it approaches a critical juncture ahead of tomorrow’s economic reports. After a sharp V-shaped recovery, the index is now facing resistance and struggling to maintain upward momentum. If key support levels fail to hold, we could see further downside in the coming sessions.
Key Levels to Watch:
5,700 - 5,720: A significant resistance zone where recent rallies have stalled. A break above this level could signal renewed bullish momentum.
5,650 - 5,670: A minor support area that previously acted as a pivot. Losing this level could increase selling pressure.
5,520 - 5,504: A major support zone that must hold to prevent further downside. If broken, it could trigger a larger sell-off.
5,350 - 5,400: A potential next area of support if the index continues to slide. This level aligns with previous consolidation zones.
4,790 - 4,800: A worst-case scenario target if market sentiment deteriorates significantly.
Technical Breakdown:
The current price action suggests a potential reversal if support levels do not hold. The index has failed to reclaim key resistance and is now at risk of breaking down further. Volume has increased during recent selling, indicating stronger downside pressure.
The next move will likely be dictated by tomorrow’s reports. If economic data comes in weaker than expected, it could fuel concerns of a slowdown, leading to further selling. Conversely, stronger-than-expected data may provide temporary relief, but resistance levels still need to be reclaimed for the uptrend to resume.
Market Sentiment and Strategy:
A break below 5,504 could trigger a wave of selling, making downside targets more likely.
If support holds and we see a strong bounce, it could offer a short-term buying opportunity.
Given increased volatility, traders should be cautious and monitor key levels closely.
With economic data on the horizon, the S&P 500 is at a critical decision point. The next 24-48 hours will determine whether the recent recovery holds or if further downside is ahead.
Don’t Let a Green Candle Fool YouDon’t Let a Green Candle Fool You | SPX Analysis 01 April 2025
We got the “boing” – but not the bounce that changes anything meaningful.
Monday opened like a trap door - gap down, quick poke near 5500, and then a full day of rallying that had CNBC anchors high-fiving like they just called the bottom of the century.
Except… they didn’t.
We’ve seen this act before. One-day rallies that puff up like a balloon, then vanish. And just like before, I’m not chasing a single green candle or headline optimism. I’m not a bull until 5700 is reclaimed - simple as that. That’s the bear flag failure point, the GEX pivot, and my personal line in the sand.
So while the crowd celebrates a maybe-double-bottom, I’m keeping my slippers firmly on the bear side of the wardrobe. And if Monday proved anything, it’s this…
Sometimes, the trades you forget about end up being the ones that pay.
This Bounce Doesn’t Fool Me – Here's Why I’m Still Short
Let’s call it what it is: a rally inside a bearish structure. Until we break the top of that structure, it’s just noise.
Here’s what really matters:
Monday gapped down, dropped toward 5500, and then staged a rally.
Everyone’s calling “double bottom!” - but I’ve seen more convincing bottoms on a bowling ball.
These reversal days have been common lately – I counted five in the last six weeks.
We’re still under 5700, which is the GEX flip, the flag failure, and the bullish invalidation.
That means I’m still riding:
Bear Swing #1 – opened last week, still on.
New aggressive shorts – 10-min bearish Tag ‘n Turn below 5500 only.
Bonus: A Forgotten Trade Hit Target on Monday
You’ll love this.
I had a bearish swing from around 20 March. Honestly, I forgot about it. Wrote it off. It was gathering dust in the corner of my options book.
Then, boom – Monday open… "Order Filled".
Target hit. Gap did the job. Payout in the pocket.
It’s a reminder every trader needs:
“It ain’t over until expiration… and sometimes not even then.”
GEX Analysis Update
Whole and half numbers acting as support and resistance
Expert Insights: Avoid These Rookie Mistakes
❌ Mistake #1: Getting Sucked Into Green Candles
Just because the market bounced doesn’t mean it’s time to flip bull. Watch the levels, not your feelings.
❌ Mistake #2: Cancelling Too Early
The Trade’s Not Over Just Because You’re Bored
Most traders kill good trades because they get impatient.
They cancel too soon. They “manage the trade” to death. Or worse, they chase a green candle and flip bias on a whim.
Here’s what Monday reminded us:
✅ Let the trade breathe.
That bear swing from 20 March? Forgotten. Ignored. Hit target anyway.
✅ Stick to your plan, not your mood.
The market rallied. But did it change the structure? No. Still below 5700. Still bearish bias.
✅ A good trade doesn’t need your babysitting.
Set the rules. Place the trade. Walk away. Check back later with a smile.
The traders who win are the ones who stop trying to outsmart their own system.
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Fun Fact
In 1999, a 15-year-old stock trader named Jonathan Lebed made over $800,000 pumping penny stocks from his bedroom... before the SEC came knocking.
Moral of the story? Markets will always reward confidence, consistency, and a little bit of cunning – but it’s the trader who sticks to a rule-based system who lasts beyond the headlines.
S&P entering rough path in 2025 It seems S&P is going through a soft bounce back after selloff towards 10W MA around 58-5900 levels. This could be the strong rejection leading to summer lows around 52-5300 range .
If Macro is promising could resume bull run by providing good entry otherwise a recovery towards 5600 which eventually sees 4800 or 2021 ATH making a long range for 4-5 years providing 2026 to reach towards 5800 level by end of December 2026 and giving a new ATH only in 2027 .
SPX Targets 5400 - 5150 - 4750Hi Traders,
We so far we are following the pattern of 2022... If so we should be beginning the next down leg and looks like with Trump announcing auto Tarrifs today I expect it begins now instead of waiting till April 2, Liberation day, as Trump calls it. He is the default EW indicator which appears to capture the levels I was looking at using other TA. This won't be a sudden drop but I expect some if not all these levels to be hit once all is said and done. The market needs to become a lot cheaper for people to want to invest into a Tariff type environment. I wouldn't be surprised if he comes out with strong Tariffs on April 2 that we end up going into a recession by summer. The only way to get lower rates like trump wants is to tank the market which I think he is ok with to do. Lets see how this plays out.
post market run down Things I'm seeing post market. I still lean bearish but a gap up tomorrow would negate my idea.
How low will it go? The S&P Bear MarketI don't believe the market has bottomed yet. There is more to come.
Trump's tariffs will continue to cause uncertainty and as economic figures confirm a US slowdown, stock markets could fall further.
From a technical perspective, I will be looking to buy between 4700 and 5200. This is based on evident weekly horizontal levels, bullish channel support, and 100 and 200 SMA's.
VANTAGE:SP500 PEPPERSTONE:US500 ICMARKETS:US500 OANDA:SPX500USD
