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Nightly $SPX / $SPY Scenarios for 2.12.2025🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News: 🇺🇸🏛️ Fed Chair Powell Testifies: At 10:00 AM ET, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will testify before Congress, providing insights into the economic outlook and potential monetary policy adjustments. 📊 Key Data Releases: 📅 Wednesday, Feb 12: 🏢 Consumer Price Index (CPI) (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: +0.3% MoM; Previous: +0.4% MoM. 📈 Core CPI (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: +0.3% MoM; Previous: +0.2% MoM. 📉 CPI (YoY) (Jan): Expected 2.9%; Previous 2.9%. 📉 Core CPI (YoY) (Jan): Expected 3.1%; Previous 3.2%. 🛢️ EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 AM ET): Previous: +8.664M. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPX #SPY #daytrading #charting #trendtao
SP:SPX
by TrendTao
SPX Real Value ATH? Repeat 25 year 1930-1955 recovery fractalMeasuring SPX real valuation (SPX versus money supply) Spx is on its way to recovering the 2000 all time high that wa seen in the dot com bubble. The real valuation has never recovered this point. This fractal is very similar to the 25 year recovery from the 1930 crash is this lining up for continued bullish momentum into a new territory of value for Equities as Ai ushers in real value creation to companies and economies in the US and around the world. Hmmmm. Bullish? Rethinking this after Real valuation highs have been broken (see related posts) and since i believe that this is justified since technological innovation is driving more value to equity versus other investment types (bonds, commodies, maybe even land) . *****Land is interesting since new technology makes land more productive you actually need less of it to do the same things. very very interesting, but i would not count against it as a store of value as more dollars are printed.*** fun times. lets see what this looks like in the future
SP:SPX
by SnarkyPuppy
1
$SPX Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Day Traders Feb 11 25 Ok. Today’s implied move 6025 - 6105 on the day - I am looking wider than that for spreads today It’s looking as if futures will open UNDER the 30min 200MA, which could give us that 35EMA cross down and then we will be bearish. We got a little technical bounce yesterday but it was on low volume and looks weak in the indicators. So look for that 35EMA cross down. 50 Day moving average is near the bottom of the trading range under the implied move on the day and at the bottom of tomorrow’s implied move so that is a target to keep in mind. ATH’s at the top of the trading range and the downtrend line is in today’s implied move.
SP:SPXShort
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
Your Vote Counts - Help Build the Ultimate Index Watchlist!Hey, I need your help again - this will only take a minute! I’ve said it before, here and to my Substackers: I want to be your reminder to invest . Because let’s be honest, steadily growing your wealth might not be thrilling but it should be your goal! Yes, individual stocks have their place (and I’ll keep sharing ideas on those too), but indexes should be a key part of a solid portfolio. Today’s focus? Maximizing your index purchases. 📊 Proven strategy: A few weeks ago, I ran an experiment comparing QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF), SPY (S&P 500 ETF), and IWM (Russell 2000 ETF). Using technical analysis, I outperformed two of them. The tests showed that blind purchasing could be costly: for instance, regular SPY purchases would have left $100,000 on the table, and IWM even more. But here’s the point: this isn’t about blindly picking an index - it’s about timing, risk optimization, and smart diversification. 💡 Now, it’s YOUR turn! Drop two indexes in the comments that you want me to analyze every single month. You decide the final list (likely 4-5 indexes), and I’ll cover them consistently. Whether it’s S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, DAX, Euro Stoxx 50, Russell 2000, or others - you pick, I deliver. 📈 How this helps YOU? ✔️ No overthinking : "What should I buy this month?" - just wait for my post and see the TOP picks ✔️ Keeps you engaged and active in the market ✔️ Builds consistency in your investing ✔️ Ensures every allocation works harder for you ⬇️ Comment your picks below, and let’s make every move count! 🚀 Cheers, Vaido
SP:SPXLong
by VaidoVeek
22
Bearish Bias Locked int - Now We wait for the dropBearish Bias Locked In – Now We Wait for the Drop | SPX Market Analysis 11 Feb 2025 The bullish chapter is closed, and our focus is now entirely bearish as we eye a move toward 5980. Futures are already pointing lower, teasing a 20-point drop at the open. Will we get the full range move, or will SPX keep stalling? Either way, we’re locked and loaded—now, we wait for the market to tip its hand. --- SPX Deeper Dive Analysis: 📉 Bearish Positions Locked In SPX is now fully bearish, with bullish trades wrapped up profitably or at break-even following the bear turn signal. This continues to aligns perfectly with our 6 money-making patterns, where we expect a move from range highs to range lows. 📊 Futures Hint at a Lower Open Overnight futures are already down 20 points, suggesting: ✅ A weaker SPX open ✅ A potential move toward 5980 ✅ Confirmation that momentum is shifting lower 🔍 ADD Still Has Room to Fall Yesterday’s ADD reading hit the upper bullish extreme That leaves plenty of downside wiggle room If ADD pushes lower, indexes could also follow through ⏳ For Now, It’s a Waiting Game The bearish setup is in place Price action will dictate the next move A clean range move to 5980 remains the primary target 🚀 Key Takeaway? The market is aligning with expectations, but we still need follow-through to lock in profits. Fun Fact: 📢 Did you know? In 1987, the Dow dropped 22.6% in a single day—the biggest percentage crash in history. That’s the equivalent of the S&P 500 dropping over 1,000 points today! 💡 The Lesson? Even in structured markets, major moves can happen fast. This is why having a rule-based trading system keeps you ahead of the chaos.
SP:SPXShort
by MrPhilNewton
S&P500 consolidation is over. Massive rally starting.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the October 27 2023 Low. For almost the past 30 days it has been ranging sideways on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The index is no stranger to this at all. On the contrary, this is a common Consolidation Phase that SPX has been through another 3 times within the Channel Up. As you can see, every time the index recovered from a Bearish Leg below the 1D MA50, it consolidated for around 1 month above the 1D MA50 and then resumed the Bullish Leg to complete at least a +15% rise from the bottom. The 1D RSI sequences among all those fractals (including today's) are identical. As a result, we are preparing for a massive rally any day now, expecting a new +15% Bullish Leg to reach at least 6600. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TRADENATION:US500Long
by TradingShot
9
S&P - WEEKLY SUMMARY 3.2-7.2 / FORECAST📉 S&P500 – 4th week of the base cycle (average of 20 weeks). The pivot forecast on February 3 pushed the market upward after the overnight tariff gap. If you remember, I was in a short position at Friday’s close on January 31. I got tempted by the overnight tariff hysteria and closed my position in the morning. The European morning provided a great intraday opportunity to buy back the market with a good profit and open a long position on the pivot forecast. ⚠️ The cycle’s beginning looks very bearish, with a short rise followed by a steep drop below the opening level. I anticipated this in early January. By Friday’s close, signs of a double top at the December 9 and January 29 extreme forecast levels appeared. Strong hands with stops above the double top level should have held their short positions from January 24. The impulse from the January 29 extreme forecast is still active. Two long cycles remain open, as noted in the early January post.
CBOE:SPX
by irinawest
1
PROFIT & LEARN: Confusion Clarity Bar Index (CCBI) Overview The Confusion Clarity Bar Index (CCBI) is a TradingView indicator designed to measure market efficiency and volatility by combining the Efficiency Ratio with a Bollinger Bands %b calculation. This provides traders with a unique way to gauge price movement clarity versus confusion. Key Features: 1. Efficiency Ratio (ER) Calculation: • Measures the directional efficiency of price movements over a user-defined period. • Compares absolute momentum to cumulative volatility to determine efficiency. 2. Bollinger Bands %b Calculation: • Applies a Bollinger Bands overlay to the Efficiency Ratio. • Standard deviation is set very low (default 0.0001) to capture subtle variations in efficiency. 3. Histogram Visualization: • A column-style histogram represents %b values: • Blue bars when %b is above 0.5 (greater market clarity). • Red bars when %b is below 0.5 (higher market confusion). 4. Overbought & Oversold Levels: • 1.0 (Overbought) → Market is exceptionally efficient. • 0.0 (Oversold) → Market is highly inefficient or erratic. • 0.5 (Neutral Level) → Middle ground between efficiency and confusion. 5. Background Highlighting: • Green background when %b reaches 1.0 (strong market efficiency). • Red background when %b reaches 0.0 (extreme market inefficiency). How to Use It: • Trend Confirmation: • If bars remain blue, price movements are likely clear and efficient. • If bars turn red, market uncertainty is increasing. • Reversal Zones: • A move towards 0.0 suggests indecision, potentially signaling trend exhaustion. • A move towards 1.0 indicates strong directional momentum. • Volatility Breakouts: • A sharp shift in %b from low to high may indicate an upcoming trend breakout. This indicator is best used in conjunction with momentum oscillators and volume indicators to confirm market conditions and potential trade setups.
FX:SPX500Education
by moneymagnateash
[02/10] SPX – GEX Until the First Weekly ExpirationThe SPX opened with a huge gap-down in both the futures and CFD markets. After the previous two Fridays, there was a massive gap-down in the premarket each time. Everyone was expecting the same scenario again, but it seems the market quickly recovered from the put support at the 6000 level, and we are now steadily moving toward the positive GEX range. Although we are still in the transition zone (where it’s easy to switch between positive and negative GEX territory), we may soon reach the HVL level at 6060, which, if I had to guess, might be adjusted during today’s premarket update. The GEX levels align with the technical foundations: 🟢 6090–6100 to the upside is a bullish take-profit zone, and our purely positive GEX range is fairly narrow. If buying pressure is strong, above 6100 we could see a very strong positive gamma squeeze upward. 🔴 To the downside, “armageddon” could begin if the put support around 6010–6000, which held the sell-off this morning, fails to hold. The next target in a negative gamma squeeze could be 5950, followed by 5900. The transition range is quite wide, and the market is expecting a volatile week (though I believe that from now on it’ll expect volatility every day for the next four years...). The transition zone is sure to narrow by Friday. It’s worth paying attention to the premarket update around 6:45 AM, about three hours before the market opens! If the red zone extends very deep afterward (for example, if it’s red below the HVL level all the way to the put support at around 5950), it indicates a significant downside risk compared to any potential rally—which I don’t think will change unless we get a breakout above 6100. 🔶 So, be cautious with those bullish horns—below 6100, we can’t talk about a confirmed breakout to the upside.
SPREADEX:SPX
by TanukiTrade
2
S&P500: Breaking out towards 6,210.S&P500 is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 54.592, MACD = 11.130, ADX = 24.014) as it is ranging between the 1H MA50 and 1H MA200. This consolidation is taking place near the top of the Channel Down, a pattern almost identical with January's. When that pattern broke to the upside, it almost hit the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. Our short term target is just under this level (TP = 6,210). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope
Why you should choose your trading period carefullyFirst, let's look at the four most important trading sessions. The Forex and stock market is divided into different trading sessions, which are based on the opening hours of the main financial centers: Session Opening Hours (UTC) Major Markets: -> Sydney session 22:00 – 07:00 Australia, New Zealand -> Tokyo session 00:00 – 09:00 Japan, China, Singapore -> London session 08:00 – 17:00 UK, Europe -> New York session 1:00 p.m. – 10:00 p.m. USA, Canada Note: Times vary slightly depending on summer or winter time. Why are trading sessions important? -> Volatility & Liquidity Depending on the session, there are different market movements. High liquidity → tight spreads and better order execution. Low liquidity → greater slippage and wider spreads. -> Active currencies & markets During the Tokyo session, JPY and AUD pairs are particularly active. During the London session, EUR and GBP pairs are the most volatile. During the New York session, USD pairs and stock markets moved the most. Opportunities & risks during overlapping times: The overlaps between sessions are the most volatile times because several major markets are active at the same time. 1. London-New York Overlap (13:00 – 17:00 UTC) → Highest volatility Why? The world's two largest financial centers operate at the same time. Opportunities: Big price moves → good for breakout traders and scalping. High liquidity → tight spreads, fast order execution. Risks: Extreme volatility → rapid price changes can trigger stop losses. News (e.g. US jobs data) can cause sudden movements. Practical example: A trader is watching EUR/USD and sees strong resistance at 1.1000. US inflation data will be released at 13:30 UTC. If the data is better than expected → USD strengthens, EUR/USD falls. If the data is worse → USD weakens, EUR/USD rises. Within a few minutes the price can fluctuate by 50-100 pips. → Strategy: News traders rely on quick movements, while conservative traders extend stop losses or pause during this time. 2. Tokyo-London Overlap (08:00 – 09:00 UTC) → Medium volatility Why? London opens while Tokyo is still active. Opportunities: JPY pairs (e.g. GBP/JPY) are moving strongly. Breakouts through the European opening. Risks: Sudden changes in direction as European traders often have a different market opinion than Asian ones. Practical example: A scalper is trading GBP/JPY in a narrow range of 185.00 – 185.20 during the Tokyo session. At 08:00 UTC London opens with GBP/JPY breaking above 185.50. Within 30 minutes the price rises to 186.00 as European traders buy GBP. If you recognize the breakout early, you can quickly take 50-100 pips. → Strategy: Scalpers rely on quick entries and take profits before volatility subsides. 3. Sydney-Tokyo Overlap (00:00 – 07:00 UTC) → Low volatility Why? Mainly the Asian market is active. Opportunities: Less volatility → good for range trading. Cheaper spreads for AUD and NZD pairs. Risks: Little liquidity → Slippage may occur. Strong moves are rare, except for major news from Japan or Australia. Practical example: A swing trader notes that AUD/USD has been fluctuating between 0.6500 and 0.6550 for days. During the Sydney-Tokyo session the price mostly stays in this range. The trader places a sell limit order at 0.6550 and a buy limit order at 0.6500. Since there is little volatility, it can be profitable with multiple small trades. → Strategy: Range trading is ideal because no major breakouts are expected. Conclusion: Each trading session has its own characteristics, opportunities and risks. The crossovers are the most volatile times - good for day traders, but risky for inexperienced traders. Anyone who understands the market mechanisms can take targeted action at the right time. The strategies mentioned above are simply derivations from the advantages and disadvantages of the respective sessions. Of course, a well-founded strategy concept requires much more.
GBEBROKERS:US500Education
by Speechless-Trading
S&P 500’s Next Big Move: 6,200 or Bust?Hey Realistic Traders, Will CAPITALCOM:US500 Move beyond 6,200? Let’s dive into the analysis... On the daily chart, the S&P 500 is trading above both the EMA-100 and EMA-200, confirming a robust bullish trend. This momentum was reinforced by a falling wedge breakout, a pattern that typically signals the continuation of bullish pressure. Additionally, the price tested the upper trendline twice and bounced off each time, further underlining the strength of the upward move. Considering these strong technical signals, the price is likely to move downward toward the first target at 6.240 or potentially the second target at 6.391. However, this bullish scenario depends on the price staying below the critical stop-loss level at 5844 Support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your opinions in the comments below. Disclaimer: “Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on S&P500”.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by financialfreedomgoals101
2
Modest recovery follows weak weekUS stock index futures were all firmer in early trade this morning, recovering a proportion of Friday’s losses. The majors ended last week on the backfoot as investors chose to pare their risk exposure ahead of the weekend. This came after President Trump unleashed a clutch of tariff threats, primarily focused at northern and southern neighbours, Canada and Mexico. These were postponed within hours of being announced as both countries promised to boost security at their US borders. But the additional 10% tariff on US imports from China did go ahead. China has instigated retaliatory tariffs on US imports starting today. Over the weekend, President Trump announced blanket tariffs on all imports of aluminium and steel, along with reciprocal tariffs on any country placing levies on imports from the US. All this uncertainty contributed to a negative week for all four major US stock indices. This was compounded by Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll update which came in weaker than anticipated. Average Hourly Wages came in well above forecasts, and on top of this, the University of Michigan’s Inflation Expectations survey jumped unexpectedly. This increased concerns that inflation in returning as an important issue. There’s evidence of renewed upside pressure, and all measures remain significantly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. This has led to another shift in rate cut expectations. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, the odds now favour just one 25 basis point rate cut this year. This week brings important inflation updates with the CPI and PPI on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. In addition, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will testify before Congress tomorrow and on Wednesday. Despite some disappointing results from a few tech giants, this has been a strong earnings season, with earnings growth coming in at its best rate for four years.
TRADENATIONSB:US500
by TradeNation
Pivot Points Part 2: Support and Resistance LevelsWelcome back to our series on pivot points, an objective a simple tool used by many day traders. In Part 1, we explored the central pivot point, its calculation, and its role as a key reference for market sentiment. In Part 2, we’ll expand on this foundation by diving into the support and resistance levels derived from the pivot point formula. These levels are designed to add depth to your day trading analysis, offering a more comprehensive view of intraday price action. The Mechanics: Support and Resistance Levels In addition to the central pivot point (PP), pivot analysis includes three levels of support (S1, S2, S3) and three levels of resistance (R1, R2, R3). These levels are calculated using the previous session’s high, low, and close. The formulas for the primary levels are as follows: PP = (previous high + previous low + previous close) / 3 S1 = (pivot point x 2) - previous high S2 = pivot point - (previous high — previous low) R1 = (pivot point x 2) — previous low R2 = pivot point + (previous high — previous low) The third levels (R3 and S3) extend even further but are less frequently reached in typical intraday trading. These levels create a structured framework for identifying potential reversal points, breakout zones, and profit targets. S&P 500 5min Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Using Pivot Levels in Your Trading 1. Trading the Reversal: Support and Resistance in Action One of the most common ways to use pivot levels is to identify potential reversal points. For example, if the price reaches S1 or R1 and shows signs of hesitation, it may indicate a reversal is likely. This is particularly true when combined with candlestick patterns, momentum indicators, or divergence on oscillators like RSI. Example: In this EUR/USD 5-minute chart, we see a textbook reversal at R1. The market initially uses the pivot point (PP) as support and then forms a double top reversal pattern when retesting R1 resistance, signalling a potential upward move. This setup allows traders to enter with a clear stop above R1 and a target near the pivot point or dynamic moving average. EUR/USD 5min Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results 2. Riding the Breakout When momentum is strong, the market can break through pivot levels, turning resistance into support (or vice versa). Watching for breakouts at R1 or S1 can provide excellent entry points for trend-following strategies. Example: In this example, the FTSE 100 having earlier reversed at R1 and broken through PP, briefly consolidates near S1. This is followed by a break lower – triggering a swift move down to S2. FTSE 100 5min Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results 3. Target Setting and Risk Management Pivot levels are also useful for setting realistic profit targets and stop losses. For example, a trader entering a long position near S1 might use the pivot point as an initial target, depending on the strength of the move. Similarly, a short position initiated near R1 could aim for the pivot point as an initial target and S1 as a secondary target, with stops placed just above the breakout level to manage risk. Combining Pivot Levels with Other Tools While pivot levels are powerful on their own, combining them with other tools can significantly enhance their effectiveness: VWAP: If a pivot level aligns with VWAP, it reinforces the level’s importance as a potential support or resistance zone. Prior Days High/Low: Pivot levels that coincide with the previous session’s high or low can serve as stronger reversal or breakout points. RSI: Use RSI to gauge momentum—if price approaches a pivot level while RSI is negative or positive divergence at an overbought or oversold, it can signal a potential reversal. Example: In the below example we see the FTSE hold above VWAP and the pivot level – forming a solid base of support before breaking higher. The market breaks through R1 and the prior days high leading to a charge past R2 to and towards R3. At R3 we see the market start to stall as the RSI shows signs of negative divergence. FTSE 100 5min Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Summary Pivot points, along with their associated support and resistance levels, offer traders a structured framework for navigating intraday price action. By understanding how these levels interact with market sentiment and momentum, traders can develop more confident strategies for reversals, breakouts, and risk management. Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 83% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing
SP:SPXEducation
by Capitalcom
4