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S&P 500 - Clear head and shoulders pattern on the 1 hour.The markets have had a rough end of the year. The S&P 500 has printed a pretty clear head and shoulders pattern. Is this a fake out, or will it break to the down side? I don't see anything different now than a few weeks ago, so can we mark it up to end of the year tax covering and profit taking? Or is there something more severe going on? A rate cut and Trump taking office should be a boon to the markets, unless we have a black swan event in the near future that the insider know about and we don't. Bird flu? War with Russia? Debt ceiling? Some other unknown event? Maybe its all just noise. The charts "never" lie though.
SP:SPXShort
by swineninety9
S&P500 - The Next 14 Days Will Decide Everything!S&P500 ( TVC:SPX ) is about to break all resistance: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 Over the past couple of weeks, the S&P500 has been repeating the major breakout rally of 2021. Back then the S&P500 actually broke above the channel resistance and immediately rallied more than +15%. If we see the confirmed breakout, we will likely see the same thing happening again. Levels to watch: $6.000, $7.000 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
TVC:SPXLong
by basictradingtv
24
Understanding Window Dressing: What It Is and Why It Happens█ Understanding Window Dressing: What It Is and Why It Happens At the end of every quarter or year, especially in December, some fund managers engage in a practice called window dressing. While it may sound like a holiday tradition, it’s actually a financial strategy designed to make a portfolio look more attractive to investors. Here's what you need to know: █ What Is Window Dressing? Window dressing happens when fund managers adjust their portfolios right before reporting periods. They sell underperforming stocks and buy high-performing ones to present a cleaner, more successful-looking portfolio in reports to clients or investors. This tactic gives the appearance of strong investment decisions, even if the actual performance over the quarter or year was lackluster. █ Why Do Fund Managers Do It? To Impress Investors: Fund managers want their reports to show a strong portfolio, which can attract new investors and retain current ones. To Boost Confidence: A portfolio filled with "winning" stocks makes it seem like the fund consistently picks the right investments. To Justify Performance: If a fund struggled during the year, window dressing can shift focus away from losses. █ How Does It Work? Selling Losing Stocks: Underperforming stocks are sold off so they don't appear in the end-of-year report. Example: A fund holding a struggling tech stock might sell it in December to avoid questions about its performance. Buying Winning Stocks: Managers may buy stocks that performed well recently, even if they didn’t hold them earlier, to create the illusion of good timing. Example: Adding shares of a high-flying AI company to the portfolio in December to make it seem like they capitalized on the trend. █ Examples in Action ⚪ Market Volatility in December As the 2024 trading year wrapped up, U.S. stock markets experienced notable declines, reflecting a mix of profit-taking, year-end adjustments, and portfolio rebalancing. One key driver of this volatility was window dressing. Fund managers, aiming to improve the appearance of their portfolios, sold off underperforming stocks in bulk before the year-end reporting period. This large-scale activity added pressure to the already vulnerable market, amplifying price movements, particularly in weaker stocks. Example: Imagine a fund holding several tech stocks that underperformed in 2024. By December, the fund may decide to sell these stocks en masse, effectively clearing them from their books. This sudden selling can further depress the stock prices of those underperforming companies, creating a ripple effect across the broader market. Broader Market Impact: The sharp sell-offs from window dressing contribute to increased market fluctuations, which can mislead casual investors into thinking these stocks are worse off than they might be in the long term. ⚪ Tax-Loss Selling In addition to window dressing, another widespread practice that overlaps with it during December is tax-loss selling. This is when fund managers or individual investors sell losing stocks to offset their capital gains for tax purposes. This allows them to reduce their taxable income while simultaneously adjusting their portfolios for the new year. How It Overlaps: A fund manager selling a losing stock for tax purposes might also be engaging in window dressing, as this helps clean up the portfolio's appearance for the year-end report. The dual motivation often drives even more selling pressure on underperforming stocks in December. Example: Suppose a fund owns shares of a biotech company that fell significantly during the year. Selling the shares not only offsets gains elsewhere in the portfolio but also removes the "blemish" of a losing position from the annual report. █ Is Window Dressing Legal? Yes, it’s legal, but it’s often criticized for being misleading. Investors might think the fund's performance was better than it actually was. Regulators like the SEC are taking steps to increase transparency. For example, mutual funds will soon have to report their holdings monthly instead of quarterly, making it harder to hide these tactics. █ How Does It Affect You as an Investor? Short-Term Market Volatility: Window dressing can cause unusual price movements in December as funds adjust their portfolios. Misleading Reports: If you’re investing in mutual funds or ETFs, the end-of-year portfolio may not reflect the manager’s true strategy or the fund’s performance throughout the year. █ Takeaway for Investors Window dressing is a reminder to look beyond year-end reports when evaluating a fund. Focus on long-term performance and consistency rather than just the holdings shown in December. Transparency regulations will help, but it’s always wise to dig deeper. By understanding window dressing, you can make more informed decisions about your investments and avoid being misled by this common, yet questionable, practice. ----------------- Disclaimer This is an educational study for entertainment purposes only. The information in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on evaluating their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs. My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
SP:SPXEducation
by Zeiierman
S&P 500: Final Day Analysis with Key Levels and Trend OutlookS&P 500 Technical Analysis It's the final trading day of the year. The price shows bullish momentum up to 5,969, which must be confirmed by a 4-hour candle closing above this level. This could lead to a further rise toward 6,022, followed by a correction. Conversely, stability below 5,969 will trigger a bearish move from 5,969 toward 5,899 and potentially 5,863. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 5937 Resistance Levels: 5969, 6022, 6053 Support Levels: 5905, 5863, 5790 Trend Outlook: Bearish Momentum: Stability below 5,969 Bullish Trend: If 5,969 is broken
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
Year-end volatilityWhile it’s true that yesterday wasn’t completely void of economic events, a disappointing Chicago PMI can’t really shoulder the blame, or take the credit, for the wild stock market swings that took place. The Dow was down 700 points first thing, on no news. It then rallied 500 soon after the US open, before dropping 200 in the last hour of trading. In S&P terms, that was a loss of 100 points in three hours; a rally of 60 over the following three, topped off with a 30 point slump in the final hour of trading. As they say over the Atlantic: “Go figure.” A clue to what all that was about may be found in the US Treasury market where yields pulled back from recent highs. The 10-year Treasury note lost around 8 basis points yesterday, again on no news. So, like Sherlock Holmes and the ‘dog that didn’t bark’, it seems fair to suggest that investors were indulging in a dollop of year-end window dressing and rebalancing. Equities have had a strong twelve months, so these were sold off on profit-taking; bonds have had a dreadful fourth quarter, so they got bought, sending yields lower. This should help maintain the traditional 60:40 equity/bond portfolio to which most money managers aspire. That still leaves the 10-year yield over 4.50%, and a potential headwind for equities, although it’s remarkable how quickly investors can acclimatise to new environments. Could a 5.00% yield be the new danger threshold next year, as 4.50% now looks rather tatty and obsolete? Going forward, there are two related issues that investors are considering: Will growth continue to outperform value? Can the tech giants continue to lead the market, providing investors with further outsized gains (how does one try to calculate the future returns of generative AI and quantum computing)? Or will the more neglected value stocks take over? That’s all one issue. The second one is: Has the US peaked in terms of market outperformance? Is it now time to rebalance towards Europe and emerging markets? Is China once again an investment opportunity? That’s the other one. Linking all this is where the US dollar is likely to head from here. Yesterday, Jared Dillian, in his ‘Daily Dirtnap’, posted a chart of the Dollar Index superimposed on the same chart from 2016, around the time of Trump’s first presidential election victory. It shows the Dollar Index peaking around 106.00 a month after the result, then falling to 94.00 eight months later. Will history repeat? We know that President-elect Trump likes low interest rates, and tariffs. Could that be enough to trash the greenback? If so, then 2025 is likely to see higher commodity prices, a bond market rally and a bit of a headwind for US equities. Let’s look forward to finding out.
TRADENATIONSB:US500
by TradeNation
S&P500 First 4H Death Cross in 5 months! Is it bearish indeed?The S&P500 index (SPX) is on a decline since Thursday and despite the thin holiday volume and less trading days, is a sign of weakness on the short-term. Especially having completed a Death Cross on the 4H time-frame on December 24. In fact, this is the first 4H Death Cross in 5 months (since July 29). During that sequence, the index was under heavy seasonal selling pressure but initially rose following the Death Cross. Soon after though it collapsed lower on bad macroeconomics. This time however, the trend turned bearish immediately after the Death Cross. The buy signal in August was the Aug 05 4H RSI Double Bottom. This time, the RSI has already started rising since yesterday. In our opinion, this suggests that the selling pressure by the 4H Death Cross is most likely over and we can technically see the new Bullish Leg of the 3-month Channel Up. The most common % rise these past few months has been +7.19%. If we count that from the recent December 20 Low, then we should be expecting a 6200 Target by late January - early February. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 12.31.2024🔮 ⏰ 9:00am S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y 1️⃣ GAP ABOVE HPZ: If we do gap up definitely be bearish 2️⃣ OPEN WITHIN EEZ: There is a slight bullishness left but I think that goes in the premarket, trade the futures if you want, but I do believe that the last trading day will be a V shape 3️⃣ GAP BELOW HCZ: Once again will cause a mechanical bounce #trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing
SP:SPXShort
by PogChan
"US500 / S&P 500" Index Market Bullish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the "US500 / S&P 500" Index market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 👀 So Be Careful, wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : You can enter a Bull trade after the Red MA line Breakout, however I advise placing Buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest. Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 3H period, the recent / nearest low or high level. Goal 🎯: 63,00.00 Scalpers, take note : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. Warning⚠️ : Our heist strategy is incompatible with Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️. We'll wreck our plan by smashing the Stop Loss 🚫🚏. Avoid entering the market right after the news release. Take advantage of the target and get away 🎯 Swing Traders Please reserve the half amount of money and watch for the next dynamic level or order block breakout. Once it is resolved, we can go on to the next new target in our heist plan. 💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🫂
FPMARKETS:US500Long
by Thief_Trader
2
Is a Pullback Coming?The S&P 500 has advanced steadily since late 2023, but now some traders may expect a pause or pullback. The first pattern on today’s chart is the December 20 low of 5,832 -- slightly below the mid-November trough. That contrasts with the previous bounce, which featured a higher low. Next is last week’s zenith below 6,050 -- also shy of the December 6 record. In other words, the index made a lower low and now a lower high. That could mark a disruption of its uptrend. It also creates a potential falling channel. Second, prices tested but never closed below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) in early November. This month, on the other hand, they broke the SMA before bouncing. They’ve also returned to the line more quickly (and without making a new record high). Is the intermediate-term trend fading? Third, shorter-term signals may have turned bearish. MACD is falling and the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) has dipped below the 21-day EMA. (See our 2 MA Ratio custom script in the lower study.) Finally, the S&P 500 has gone more than a year without a full 10 percent correction. Investors looking for such a pullback may expect a move toward 5,500 based on the recent high. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
SP:SPX
by TradeStation
1
Benner's cycle tops Benner Cycle is a chart depicting market cycles between the years 1924 to 2059. The chart was originally published by Ohioan farmer Samuel Benner in his 1884 book, "Benner's Prophecies of Ups and Downs in Prices". The chart marks three phases of market cycles: A. Panic Years - "Years in which panic have occurred and will occur again. B. Good Times - "Years of Good Times. High prices and the time to sell Stocks and values of all kinds. C. Years of Hard Times, Low Prices, and a good time to buy Stocks, 'Corner Lots', Goods, etc. and hold till the 'Boom' reaches the years of good times; then unload.
SP:SPX
by ipitch
S&P 500 over-valued and showing signs of weaknessIf you aren't going to speak your mind, why say anything? Here is the situation; The SPX has a Shiller Price to Equity Ratio of 37.6. There are only two other times in the last 100 years that valuations were higher. 1. Back in 2021 valuations reached 38.6 before a ~25% correction. 2. During the 2000 dot com mania it got to 44.2. After the bubble broke, it was over 12 years before the S&P 500 exceeded its previous Dec 1999 high. 3. The average PE ratio for the previous 20 years is 26.7, this would imply the market is around 30% over-valued (Reversion to the mean would put the market at the 4100 level). That is unless we have reached a new investing paradigm, where the actual income generated by a business is uncorrelated to the value of the business. But, of course we haven't. 4. Safe investments like the 10 year treasury (4.63%) exceed the income generated by owning the S&P 500 (1.3%). If you also get capital gains, it is acceptable. But, when the market delivers losses, the safety of Treasuries will start to look really good. Even very optimistic people would admit that we are closer to the top, than the bottom of the market. A discount is inbound. Who knows how much it will be, I am picking prices will over-shoot. Time will tell. Oh year, bearish divergence. Which, can be a very strong indication of reducing momentum, and a change of market direction.
TVC:SPXShort
by flyinkiwi10
S&P 500: Consolidation and Bearish Momentum Below Key LevelsS&P 500 Technical Analysis The price dropped on Friday and stabilized within bearish momentum. In general, as long as it trades below 6,022, the bearish trend is likely to continue toward 5,936, with the potential to reach 5,863 if the downward momentum persists. The S&P 500 is currently consolidating between 5,993 and 5,936 until a breakout occurs. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 5993 Resistance Levels: 6022, 6053, 6099 Support Levels: 5936, 5919, 5863 Trend Outlook: Consolidation between 5993 and 5936 Bearish Trend while below 6022
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
SPX: optimistic in 2025?The last trading week for the S&P 500 passed in an optimistic sentiment, however, Friday's trading session decreased some of weekly gains. The index started the week at the level of 5.837, moved to the highest weekly level at 6.044, but ended the week at 5.970. The levels above the 6K could not hold. Analysts are noting that the US equity market could not sustain developments on the Treasury bonds market side. The 10Y US benchmark yields surged to the level of 4,6% on Friday. This came after concerns over US tariffs and future productivity. All sectors included in the S&P 500 posted daily losses on Friday, including the tech industry. TSLA shares were down by 4,5%. The major investment banks and companies provided some insights of their expectations for the US equity markets in the year 2025. The expectations are marked with policy uncertainties, especially taking into account the start of a new Presidency in the US and the market noise related to it. Considering uncertainties, some higher volatility might be in store for markets in 2025. Analysts from CITI bank are recommending to investors to turn their attention toward sectors with strong fundamentals and reasonable valuations. Also they are pointing toward industries like health care, communication services and energy. Within the field of tech industry, CITI analysts are pointing toward the semiconductors industry sector. The biggest investment firm in the US BlackRock, provided their view on key topics for both US and emerging markets. One of the sentences noted in the document says “we see macro policy becoming a potential source of disruption”, which describes nicely the sentiment of economic analysts regarding the Fed's past policy moves. Industries to which BlackRock analysts are pointing to are those related to further AI buildout and the low-carbon transition. With respect to macro developments, they expect that the Fed will further cut rates in 2025, while the jobs market will remain under pressure as well as US GDP growth. Based on analyst forecasts, the year 2025 will be marked with uncertainties. Certainly some volatility might be expected, but general trends on equity markets from 2024 are most probable to continue also through 2025.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX