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Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 1.15.2024🔮 📅 Wed Jan 15 ⏰ 8:30am 📊 Core CPI m/m: 0.3% (prev: 0.3%) 📊 CPI m/m: 0.4% (prev: 0.3%) 📊 CPI y/y: 2.9% (prev: 2.7%) 📊 Empire State Manufacturing Index: 2.7 (prev: 0.2) ⏰ 10:30am 🛢️ Crude Oil Inventories: -1.0M 💡 Market Insights: 📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ: On a gap up, we will hold and run higher. Weekly will pin it down. 📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ: Pullbacks here and there but will get bought up. 📉 GAP BELOW HCZ: Everyone will eat up this drop; definitely look to position bullish here...again. #trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing
SP:SPXLong
by TrendTao
SPX500USD: Intraday DowntrendMarket Overview The SPX500USD index is currently trading within a moderate downtrend with a Trend Score of -40, as identified by BreadWinners INDI v2. The price is hovering near the Point of Control (POC) at 5,889, showing significant selling pressure. Short-term indicators suggest bearish momentum, but long-term moving averages hint at potential support near 5,800, which could lead to a reversal. The SPX500USD is currently in a moderate downtrend , with selling pressure dominating near resistance levels. Support zones between 5,827 and 5,752 remain critical for potential bullish defense. Traders should monitor these key levels closely, using the suggested entry and stop-loss levels for disciplined trading. Patience and risk management are key in this volatile environment. Resistance Levels: Primary Resistance: 5,889 (Point of Control). Secondary Resistance: 5,922.84 (BreadWinners Stop Loss level). Support Levels: Primary Support: 5,827 (BreadWinners Entry Price). Secondary Support: 5,752 (Lower Point of Control). Oscillators The oscillators indicate a mixed sentiment, with most leaning neutral and some showing divergence in momentum. Relative Strength Index (14): 39.65 (Neutral) Stochastic %K (14, 3, 3): 26.98 (Neutral) Momentum (10): -132.47 (Buy) MACD Level (12, 26): -35.46 (Sell) Stochastic RSI (Fast): 19.95 (Buy) Williams %R (14): -71.91 (Neutral) The Momentum and Stochastic RSI indicate potential for a short-term recovery, while the MACD remains bearish. Moving Averages Short-term moving averages continue to signal a sell, reinforcing bearish momentum, but long-term moving averages suggest support levels could hold. Exponential Moving Average (10, 20, 30): Sell Simple Moving Average (10, 20, 30): Sell Exponential Moving Average (200): Buy Simple Moving Average (200): Buy Hull Moving Average (9): Buy Trade Strategy Bearish Setup (Short Positions): Entry Zone: 5,889–5,900 (Primary POC and resistance zone). Stop Loss: Above 5,922.84. Target 1: 5,827 (Primary Support). Target 2: 5,752 (Secondary Support and Lower POC). Bullish Setup (Long Positions): Entry Zone: 5,827–5,752 (Key support levels). Stop Loss: Below 5,740. Target 1: 5,889 (POC and resistance retest). Target 2: 5,922 (Short-term breakout level).
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by ProfessorCEWard
SPX Flow concepts in real timeThe **flow concept** in trading refers to the way markets move, either easily or with difficulty, in an upward or downward direction. It is a critical tool for traders to anticipate price movements and market behavior. Key Points: 1. Types of Flow : - Good Flow: Market moves easily in the expected direction, aligning with targets. - Poor Flow: Market struggles or moves contrary to expectations. 2. Indicators of Flow : - Range and direction of the bar. - Location of the close within the bar (near highs or lows suggests direction). - Degree of progress toward expected targets within an envelope system. 3. Using Flow in Trading : - Flow helps traders anticipate targets and identify when market behavior deviates from expectations. - It integrates multiple timeframes: higher time periods (HTP), lower time periods (LTP), and focus time periods (FTP). 4. Energy and Strength : - Flow derives from the energy between support and resistance levels (e.g., PL Dot, envelope confines). - Observing energy shifts at key levels helps predict future price movements. 5. Practical Applications : - Monitor Real-Time Flow: Recognize changes in direction or strength to adjust strategies. - Avoid Stops with Flow: Understanding flow can reduce reliance on stop-loss orders by enabling better decision-making. Conclusion: The flow concept emphasizes studying and monitoring market behavior dynamically, leveraging multi-timeframe analysis and energy zones. Mastery of flow allows traders to anticipate changes, make informed decisions, and reduce errors. In the video you see three timeframes from right to left: 5 minutes, 15 minutes and 60 minutes. At key moments in time (at close) the flow shifts and this is marked with 3 green/red boxes allowing the candles to confirm/reject the flow concept. You can see on the 5 minute and 60 minutes the flow changes is identified and confirmed. The 15 minute timeframe shows quickly the same change but it is not confirmed. Then on the opposite side you several flow shifts that are not confirmed, but eventually they also provide confirmation on the 15 and the 5 minute timeframe. This concept shows the importance to flow above terminations or levels.
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by JordanMT
2
Planning Your Financial Future: A Balanced Approach to InvestingTake a moment to reflect: What do you want to achieve in life? Will you be able to consistently set aside money in the months and years to come? If you're planning to invest, it’s important to think long-term and adopt a strategy that minimizes risk while maximizing growth opportunities. Rather than investing a large sum all at once—for example, $20,000—it’s often more effective to spread your investment over time. For instance, you could invest $1,000 each month for 20 months. This approach, known as dollar-cost averaging, allows you to buy at different price points, effectively averaging out the highs and lows of the market. It also helps you remain emotionally detached from market fluctuations since both rising and falling prices can work in your favor. If you maintain a steady cash flow from your job and invest regularly in something like the S&P 500, this method can work even better. Additionally, you can adjust your strategy by contributing less during times when the market is overbought and saving that extra cash for opportunities when the market offers significant discounts. Remember, everyone’s financial situation is unique. Your paycheck, expenses, and goals will shape your strategy. While I can't tell you exactly how to invest, this method of disciplined, consistent investing with flexibility for market conditions has worked well for me—and it might work for you too.
SP:SPXEducation
by Matthiastocks
S&P 500: Levels That Could Shape the MarketThe S&P 500 is facing its first real test of 2025 as robust economic data and shifting Federal Reserve expectations create turbulence. Let’s take a look at the fundamental factors behind the pullback, along with the sector dynamics, and the key technical levels in play. Why Is the Market Wobbling? Last week’s payroll report delivered a surprise, with 256,000 jobs added in December, smashing expectations. This has thrown doubt on the prospect of multiple interest rate cuts in 2025. Swaps markets now predict just one quarter-point cut this year, with some analysts suggesting the easing cycle might already be over. The result? Treasury yields have climbed to 4.8%, their highest since late 2023. Historically, yields nearing 5% have triggered corrections of around 10%. Meanwhile, the dollar index has surged to its strongest level since November 2022, adding pressure on exports and multinational earnings. Even tech heavyweights like Nvidia, Apple, and Meta have felt the strain as investors reassess risk. Winners and Losers: Sector Trends Sector performance over the past month has been a mixed bag. Energy has been the standout, up 2.40%, helped by resilient oil prices and geopolitical factors. Technology has managed to tread water, but the rest of the market paints a different picture: • Real Estate: -7.24% • Consumer Staples: -5.71% • Consumer Discretionary: -5.46% • Materials: -4.75% • Financials: -4.44% These figures underscore growing caution, particularly in rate-sensitive sectors like Real Estate and Consumer Staples. Key Levels to Watch Since hitting new highs in early December, the S&P 500 has been in mean reversion mode. A descending channel, formed by lower swing highs and lows, has taken the index below its 50-day moving average, reflecting waning momentum. • Support Levels The 5,700-5,670 support zone is significant, featuring a cluster of historic swing highs and lows from July, August, October, and November 2024. Below this, the upward-sloping 200-day moving average serves as a pivotal line in the sand, linked to the index’s long-term bullish trend. • Resistance Levels The top of the descending channel marks the first major resistance. Beyond that, the December trend highs are the next big challenge for the bulls. S&P 500 Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 83% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
CAPITALCOM:US500
by Capitalcom
S&P 500 key levels and scenariosAfter Monday's reversal-looking candle, all eyes today will be on whether the bulls will be able to take charge and further erode the bears' control. Earlier, weaker PPI data helped to fuel a rise in US futures, but since then we have seen a bit of a pullback from the highs, although nothin too alarming so far. Key support to watch include Monday's high at 5843, followed by 5831. A daily close below this 5831-5843 area would be a bearish development. In that scenario, a drop to take out liquidity below Monday's range would then become a likely scenario. Key short-term resistance comes in around 5873-5882 (shaded in grey). A daily close above this area could signal a trend resumption. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by FOREXcom
Earnings Season Cranks Up for Gainless S&P 500. What to Expect?The S&P 500 SPX is now showing nearly zero growth since Election Day, November 5. Markets were euphoric to see Donald Trump win the White House for another four years and pushed the S&P 500 to the rarefied air of 6,000 points and above. But that’s not the case anymore. A flurry of data has poured cold water on that breakneck rally, including the latest nonfarm payrolls, which showed employers tapped a whopping 256,000 workers in December, far outpacing expectations of 156,000. The news fanned fears that the Federal Reserve might take its time in cutting interest rates — every investor’s biggest concern right now. It’s up to the earnings season to rejuvenate a falling stock market. To many, the fourth-quarter earnings updates will be the most consequential event as it will also mark President Joe Biden’s departure and the arrival of the main character, Donald Trump. First through the door, as is tradition, are the heavyweight players on Wall Street. This week traders will get to see the earnings results from big banks including JPMorgan JPM , Wells Fargo WFC and Goldman Sachs GS . In addition, the world’s largest asset manager BlackRock BLK will also post its performance. The banks’ updates will provide a glimpse into investor appetite for big-shot dealmaking, business sentiment and also how daring and bold consumers were in their spending activity. Things like net interest income — how much the bank earned on interest after paying out deposits — will be a key gauge for the banking system’s health. Here’s what’s coming from Wall Street’s household names (and some extra). ➡️ Wednesday, January 15, before the bell: Citi C Goldman Sachs GS JPMorgan JPM Wells Fargo WFC BlackRock BLK Bank of New York Mellon BK ➡️ Thursday, January 16, before the open: Bank of America BAC Morgan Stanley MS U.S. Bancorp USB Other earnings include UnitedHealth UNH . Once markets digest the updates from the lending giants, the focus will shift to the next big thing — the Magnificent Seven . It’s a high bar once again for America’s most powerful corporate juggernauts. Investors expect Mag 7 earnings to be up 22% from the same period last year while revenue is eyeballed to have grown 12.3%. The consensus views follow the elite club’s 32.9% earnings jump in the third quarter on revenue increase of 15.4%. Fun fact: the Mag 7 members accounted for 23.1% of all profits in the S&P 500 for the quarter ending September. For the three months to December, they are expected to consume about a quarter of the earnings pie. And for 2025, their market cap is projected to devour more than one-third of the S&P 500’s value, which is around $50 trillion. For the tech geeks, here’s the Mag 7 earnings slate: ➡️ Wednesday, January 29, after the closing bell: Microsoft MSFT Facebook parent Meta META Tesla TSLA ➡️ Thursday, January 30, after the closing bell: Apple AAPL Amazon AMZN ➡️ Tuesday, February 4, after the closing bell: Google parent Alphabet GOOGL ➡️ Wednesday, February 19 (tentative), after the closing bell: Nvidia NVDA Overall, the foresighted market gurus (i.e. the analysts) expect all companies in the S&P 500 to report a roughly 12% advance in quarterly profits compared to the year-ago quarter. For 2025, the consensus call is a 15% increase in corporate profits from last year. There are, of course, the permabears among us who spell doom and gloom. They say that Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs could hinder corporate growth by raising prices for US companies that rely on overseas products. And if those companies decide to pass these costs to customers, then inflation might rear back up, throwing the markets into another painful cycle of higher interest rates. What’s your take? Are you optimistic about the corporate earnings season? And are you excited to see more growth in 2025? Share your thoughts in the comments and let’s spin up the discussion.
SP:SPX
by TradingView
5
How to swing long the SP500?CAPITALCOM:US500 / 1D Hello Traders, welcome back to another market breakdown. SP:SPX is showing strong bullish momentum, breaking through key resistance levels and signaling a potential continuation to the upside. However, instead of jumping in at current levels, I recommend waiting for a pull-back to the previous daily range for a strategic approache. If the pullback holds and buying confirms, the next leg higher could target: First Resistance: Immediate levels formed during prior consolidation. Last swing high. Stay disciplined, wait for the market to come to you, and trade with confidence! Trade safely, Trader Leo
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by BTM-LEO
11
US 500 Index: Potential Head and Shoulders Top?The US 500 Index has been under pressure at the start of 2025 after a series of strong US economic data readings see traders and investors dismiss any hopes of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in the first half of the year from their minds. Not only that, uncertainty around Donald Trump’s actual plans for US tariffs on key trading partners has weighed on sentiment, given that we are less than a week away from him officially starting his second term as US President. Before then tomorrow’s US CPI release at 1330 GMT needs to be negotiated. The path of US inflation is at the top of the Fed’s list of points to focus on and this means traders will be ultra-sensitive to any print that deviates from expectations. Where Does the US 500 Index Stand Technically? A positive trend within the US 500 index has dominated price activity for many months, where any weakness has been limited by buyers at higher levels each time. This buying support has proved strong enough to hold declines, turn the index higher and breach the previous failure high, extending the positive uptrend pattern, ensuring a pattern of higher price highs and higher price lows. Of course, these bullish patterns don’t remain in force for ever, and the natural ebb and flow of buyers against sellers shifts from one being dominant over the other, creating price strength or weakness. However, since the 6101 December 6th all-time high, price sellers may be the ones that are gaining the upper hand, as a more extended phase of price weakness has been seen. In the process, possible signals have emerged that may show reason to question the sustainability of further price strength. A first possible sign of a trend change came on December 18th (the reaction to that days FOMC meeting) that saw closing breaks below support offered by the rising Daily Bollinger mid-average. While this alone isn’t an outright negative signal, it is interesting that on both December 26th and January 6th, attempts at price strength were held and reversed by the then declining daily mid-average. Has Activity Formed a Potential Bearish Head and Shoulders Pattern? The close below the mid-average followed by the average turning down can be a sign of a downtrend in price, especially as it capped further attempts to move back to higher levels. However, this isn’t a guarantee of future price weakness and much still depends on future price trends. That said, there is also possible further evidence of a sentiment shift in the shape of a technical pattern called the Head and Shoulders top. If this is the case, risks may turn towards a more extended retracement of latest strength. What is a Head and Shoulders Top? A Head and Shoulders pattern is a possible indication of directional change in price. It is formed by 3 peaks in price activity. Left Shoulder: This forms when price strength reaches a peak, where sellers are found to turn price lower. If this is the type of pattern currently forming within the US 500 index, the Left Shoulder could be marked by the 6030 November 11th high. Head: After declining following the Left Shoulder, price then rallies to break above the previous peak, and post a new higher high, only to fail and see a setback towards the previous low. Within the US 500 index chart above, this may be marked by 6101, the December 6th all-time high. Right Hand Shoulder: This is where price rises again, as buyers still view weakness as an opportunity to go long, as has proved correct on previous occasions. But this time, sellers develop at a lower level than the ‘head’ and subsequent price weakness sees a more extended phase of weakness. On the chart above, the Right Shoulder could prove to be the 6040 December 26th high. Neckline: This is the support line drawn by connecting the lowest closing points of the 2 troughs between the Left Shoulder and the Head, and the Head and the Right Shoulder. This can be horizontal, or as is possibly the case within the US 500 index, slightly sloping. It’s closing breaks of the Neckline that could suggest completion of the pattern, which may have developed at last Friday’s US 500 index close. Because formation and confirmation of a Head and Shoulders Top in the past has seen price weakness doesn’t mean it will do so again. However, Friday’s close below Neckline line support may suggest a sentiment shift and lead to further price weakness and deeper retracement of the April 2024 to December 2024 strength. That said, fresh price strength isn’t ruled out by the formation of this possible reversal. Although, it would seem as if breaks and closes back above the 5921 declining Bollinger mid-average are now required to ease the threat of a deeper price decline and prompt potential to resume the recent uptrend pattern. The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by Pepperstone
S&P500 This is why 2025 will be Bullish.The S&P500 index (SPX) just hit its 1W MA25 (red trend-line) for the first time since the August 05 2024 Low (5 months ago). This is a major long-term Support trend-line, the first one out of a total three. As you can see on this chart, the index has been trading within a Channel Up on the log scale ever since the bottom of the 2008/09 Housing Crisis. During this pattern, it has gone through phases of strong and extended Bull where the 1W MA25 and 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) offers the Support Zone and every test is a buy opportunity and when those break, the Bear phase starts, which finds Support on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), with the exception being of course the non-technical, once in 100 years event of the March 2020 COVID flash crash. It is now the 1W MA25 that comes as the first major Support level and with the 1W RSI forming the same kind of Channel Down divergence as early 2014, we expect further extension of the current Bull Phase into 2025. In fact, every Bull Cycle has either increased by roughly +100% or +62% and since the current one is way over +62%, it is fair to expect that it will pursue the +100% mark. That is currently exactly at 7000 and could be achieved by the end of 2025 as every previous Cycle Top was priced towards the end its year with a frequency of either 3 or 4 years. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
1
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 1.14.2024🔮 📅 Tue Jan 14 ⏰ 8:30am 📊 Core PPI m/m: 0.2% (prev: 0.2%) 📊 PPI m/m: 0.4% (prev: 0.4%) 💡 Market Insights: 📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ: On a gap up, we will hold and run higher. Weekly will pin it down. 📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ: Pullbacks here and there but will get bought up. 📉 GAP BELOW HCZ: Everyone will eat up this drop; definitely look to position bullish here...again. #trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing
SP:SPXLong
by TrendTao
S&P500 bottomed on its Falling Wedge. Strong short term upside. S&P500 / SPX is trading inside a Falling Wedge since the November 19th low and today hit the pattern's bottom. This has coincided with the 4hour RSI hitting the 30.00 oversold limit. Every time this has take place, the price rebounded to at least its 0.786 Fibonacci and the 4hour MA200. This time the 0.786 Fib is very close to the top of the Falling Wedge but we can technically target the 4hour MA200 a little lower at 5950. Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TheCryptagon
1
SP500: Has it formed or is it close to forming a floor?The first thing we need to consider is, what has the market discounted? Or rather, what has led fund managers to sell shares of the SP500? From my point of view, what fund managers think is: 1) That the US economy is strong. 2) That the labor market is stabilized. 3) And that wage growth is in line with a CPI of 3%. Therefore, they estimate that the Fed does not need to cut interest rates. BUT, we already knew this in November, and the SP500 continued to rise steadily. --> WHAT IS NEW THAT HAS CAUSED THE SP500 TO FALL? The strong APPRECIATION of the DOLLAR. This has put downward pressure on the stock markets. But what happens? The DOLLAR is reaching a ceiling area, and we could see it retreating somewhat or entering a sideways range in the coming weeks, favoring again the RISES OF THE STOCK MARKETS. --> At what point is the SP500 technically? The technical aspect of the SP500 is that it has a clear bullish trend in the medium to long term, but is currently in a correction phase. Today, on the H1 chart, we have seen the FIRST BULLISH WARNING (Bull), and therefore, we could see a bullish move at the end of today’s session and during tomorrow, which could extend if it surpasses the 5,844 area. -------------------------------------------------------- Strategy to follow: ENTRY: We will open 2 long positions if the H1 candle closes above 5,844. POSITION 1 (TP1): We close the first position in the 5,980 area (+2.35%) --> Stop Loss at 5,770 (-1.2%). POSITION 2 (TP2): We open a Trailing Stop position. --> Initial dynamic Stop Loss at (-1.2%) (coinciding with 5,770 of position 1). --> We modify the dynamic Stop Loss to (-1%) when the price reaches TP1 (5,980). SETUP CLARIFICATIONS *** How to know which 2 long positions to open? Let’s take an example: If we want to invest 2,000 euros in the stock, we divide that amount by 2, and instead of opening 1 position of 2,000, we will open 2 positions of 1,000 each. *** What is a Trailing Stop? A Trailing Stop allows a trade to continue gaining value when the market price moves in a favorable direction, but automatically closes the trade if the market price suddenly moves in an unfavorable direction by a predetermined distance. That predetermined distance is the dynamic Stop Loss. --> Example: IF the dynamic Stop Loss is at -1%, it means that if the price drops by -1%, the position will close. If the price rises, the Stop Loss also rises to maintain that -1% on the increases, thus reducing the risk until the position enters profit. In this way, very solid and stable price trends can be exploited, maximizing profits.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by jmesado
S&P Bullish expectationBased on EW count, support lines on the graph and on RSI the expectation is that the index will bottom out within the next weeks and move towards a new ATH this summer. After that a decline of 20% is expected. Recommendation is to scale into the index during the next weeks and exit this summer Nasdaq and S&P is expected to follow so an option is to enter either TQQQ or SPXL/UPRO Other counts are possible and we are at the end of the bull run, so take care. Divergence on RSI has been seen for a while, indicating a correction on the way
SP:SPXLong
by jespergarm
$SPX Recap of Last Week - We are down on the year - at 4hr 200MANo video today guys because I had a bit of traveling this weekend and I’m just getting back to my computer, but this is a recap of last week in one chart. We started last week with a gap up over the 50 day moving average from there, we got above the 30 minute 200MA and saw resistance at the 1H 200 moving average (green arrow) and that pushed us back down Underneath and smacked us all the way down to the four hour 200 Moving average. We also filled that gap from the first week of the trading year and took it even lower into the election gap. So we are red on the year and sitting right on top of the four hour 200 and the election gap. (Green arrow)
SP:SPX
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
1