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S&P 500 forecast: Outsized rate cut music to bulls’ ears. S&P 500 forecast: The US stock market has shown impressive resilience following the recent volatility. Investors, thrilled by the Federal Reserve’s outsized rate cut, have pushed index futures higher. However, there are mixed opinions about what lies ahead. For now, it looks the S&P 500 will finish the week at a fresh record high. Fed’s Rate Cut and Its Impact on Markets The Federal Reserve’s decision to deliver a 50-basis point rate cut was largely welcomed by investors. The move was seen as a bold but necessary step to ease economic concerns without sending panic signals reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasised that the cuts are not part of a long-term strategy but rather a proactive measure aimed at stabilising growth, now that inflation appears to be on the path of returning to its target. Markets initially sold off but quickly rebounded, with S&P 500 futures suggesting a potential new record high is on the horizon at the cash open today. The Dot Plot projection also boosted investor confidence, showing a possible 50 basis points of cuts this year and 100 next year, with the terminal rate expected to hit 3.0% by 2026. But what now? Can the S&P 500 Rally Continue? With the S&P 500 up nearly 19% year-to-date, investors are wondering if the rally can be sustained. On the surface, it appears that market sentiment is bullish, bolstered by the Fed’s actions and a series of robust earnings reports. Yet, looming risks, such as global economic slowdown in the Eurozone and China, may challenge this optimism. Moreover, seasonal trends indicate that September is typically a tough month for equities, adding a potential headwind to the current rally – although so far this hasn’t held investors back. With the US presidential election approaching, market volatility could spike, leaving investors hesitant to dive into new rallies without a clear trend. S&P 500 forecast: Technical Analysis and Key Levels to Watch Despite some volatility after the Fed’s rate cut, the S&P 500’s bullish trend remains intact. Traders should keep an eye on the support range between 5613 and 5670, with the upper end of this range marking the high from July. As long as the index holds above this support area, the short-term path of least resistance will remain upwards, potentially keeping the market on course to head towards 5800 or even the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level of 5827, derived from the drop in July. However, a dip below 5613 would signal a shift towards bearish sentiment, potentially pushing the index down to its next support and short-term trendline around the 5480-5500 area. Bearish Risks and Market Sentiment While the bulls are currently in control, bearish traders are watching for signs of a reversal. A drop below recent lows, as suggested above, could signal the end of the short-term bullish bias, reminiscent of the July sell-off when overbought conditions led to a sharp decline. Then, the signal came in the form of a bearish engulfing candle on 17 July. Bearish traders need to wait for a similar confirmation before making any significant moves, given the overall bullish structure of this market. Risk Management in a Volatile Market Regardless of whether you're bullish or bearish, managing risk is critical in today's market. With heightened uncertainty surrounding the economy and upcoming elections, volatility is expected to remain high. Traders should stay nimble and be prepared for sudden shifts in the market’s direction. In conclusion, while the S&P 500 forecast remains cautiously optimistic, several factors could derail the current rally. Staying informed and agile will be essential for navigating the coming weeks. We will, of course, highlight any major shifts in the trends, if observed. Stay tuned. -- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst
ULong
by WHSelfInvest
S&P500 H4 | Bearish Drop Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price has just reacted off our sell entry at 5,732.82, which is a swing-high resistance that lines up with the 127.20% Fibo retracement. Our take profit will be at 5,672.36, a pullback support level. The stop loss will be placed at 5,800.93, which is above 61.8% Fibo projection High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:SPX500Short
by FXCM
RATE CUTS AND AI WILL MAKE YOU RICHER AND RICHER EVERY DAY:)Here is what I believe will happen. It is very simple. No need to overthink it or overanalyze it with complex indicators. The Fed does not cut rates because the economy is projected to be good. They are cut to save the economy from recession. Its like getting a tan. You never know if your skin got burnt until the next day. And the economy is already burnt... In the next weeks and months, the skin will be flaking off:)
SP:SPX
by I_AM_FROM_THE_FUTURE
2
Forecasting the S&P 500Forecasting the S&P 500: A Complex Task Forecasting the S&P 500, a major stock market index, is a complex endeavor due to the multitude of factors influencing its movement. These include economic indicators, corporate earnings, interest rates, geopolitical events, and market sentiment. Key Factors to Consider: Economic Indicators: GDP Growth: A strong economy generally supports stock market growth. Inflation: High inflation can negatively impact corporate profits and stock prices. Unemployment Rate: A low unemployment rate indicates a strong labor market, which can boost economic growth and stock prices. Corporate Earnings: Profit Growth: Strong corporate earnings can drive stock prices higher. Earnings Expectations: Market expectations for corporate earnings play a significant role in stock price movements. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve Policy: The Federal Reserve's monetary policy, including interest rate changes, can impact stock valuations. Lower interest rates can stimulate economic activity and increase the attractiveness of equities. Geopolitical Events: Global Events: Political instability, trade disputes, or natural disasters can affect market sentiment and stock prices. Market Sentiment: Investor Confidence: Positive investor sentiment can drive stock prices upward, while negative sentiment can lead to declines. Forecasting Methods: Fundamental Analysis: This method involves analyzing economic indicators, corporate earnings, and other factors to assess the underlying value of stocks. Technical Analysis: This approach uses historical price data and charts to identify patterns and trends that may predict future price movements. Quantitative Analysis: This method employs statistical models and algorithms to analyze large datasets and identify correlations between variables that may influence stock prices. It's important to note that no forecasting method is foolproof. Stock markets are highly volatile, and unexpected events can significantly impact prices. A combination of fundamental, technical, and quantitative analysis can provide a more comprehensive understanding of market dynamics. Would you like to explore any of these factors or methods in more detail? I can also provide information on specific forecasting tools or resources.
SP:SPX
by ITManager_US
S&P 500 to print final move to 6500It goes without saying, this bull market has been the most hated I’ve ever known. Retail traders attempts to go “short” on every leg up resulted in quick squeezes. Every 1% to 4% correction brought renewed calls for the end of all things. Including time I believe. There is a reason why 90% of market participants fail in trading. Emotions. The last four long ideas published by Without Worries are linked below. Read the comments in each to get an impression of the distain retail traders have for this bull market. The Cup and Handle idea for example, published on November 9th 2023. Many reading the idea were understandably skeptic. I tell you that to tell you this... The idea was much more than a chart pattern. The idea included studies from Dollar index and more importantly market sentiment. So lets focus on those two in a little more detail. ** Market sentiment ** The market sentiment in November last was incredibly bearish. The Put/Call ratio was sky rocketing, in other words retail traders were all “short” on the market. That was a mistake. Guess what? They're doing it again. Weekly Put/Call ratio If you follow my practices you’ll know one of our golden rules, we never never long into active resistance. Just don’t. Don’t even think about it. On the above weekly Put/Call chart we can see retail traders are betting heavily with both feet for a market correction as the Put/Call ratio shows a strong demand for “Short” contracts. We can see RSI is actively rallying into resistance. Oh dear… ** The dollar index ** The dollar has entered a bull market. Or so it appears. On the 2-day chart below price action has printed a Life Cross with the index trading above the 2-day/200 sma. However on closer inspection just as in late 2022 and indeed late 2023, both price action and RSI support have failed. This will be a short lived bull market, for now. Support and resistance is the ultimate cheat code. It has been integral to the previous ideas shared. It amazes how many continue to dismiss the importance of practicing this simple concept. Look left. 2-day DXY ** The conclusion ** On the above monthly chart several technical developments have occurred. Together with market sentiment and dollar index structure, the combination provides a powerful message. The red arrows highlight each significant market top over the last 10 years when sentiment was incredibly bullish. The blue arrows record sentiment at extreme bearish levels. Here’s the interesting part, when sentiment was this bearish price action was already at the lower half of the rising channel. There is not an instance when a rise from lower to higher half of the channel with confirmation of support (we’ve confirmed) did not result in a resistance test at the top of the channel. The resistance is now between 6500 and 6700. Is it possible the market collapses like many retail traders are now calling for? Sure. Is it probable? No. Ww ** previous S&P 500 ideas ** S&P 500 - Cup and Handle S&P 500 - Why everyone is wrong S&P 500 - Why everyone is wrong - Part II S&P 500 to 6000
SP:SPXLong
by without_worries
104
Burned By A Melt UpTraders have always been taught to buy the rumor, sell the news. A mantra of no nonsense trading that more than often ..works When the Fed lowered interest rates in the US by .50 %, a highly expecting event, traders took the news in stride, and sold stocks. There was one fly in the ointment however. Overnight stock futures traders, began buying futures sensing a real upside pattern breakout on the day after. And from the opening bell this morning, prices have gapped up sharply realizing a technical, KST confirmed upside breakout that could send the S+P 500 to 5900. Sometimes when news is perceived as better than could be expected, price follows in tail. Big money traders are once again committing to the market, driving price much higher, as the naysayers rue how could such a thing happen to them. Bearish traders are now under water, as those who thought they could outsmart the market were burned,.. by the unexpected "melt up " THE_UNWIND WOODS OF CONNECTICUT 9/19/24
SP:SPX
by The_Unwind
1
All Time Highs piercedAfter the announcement of the FED to reduce interest rates, this attracted new money to the market, which made it easy to break the resistance at the All Time Highs (4670) level. What's next is the short term traders will be taking profits and the bears will be taking every dip to exit their short positions, creating pressure to the upside. My forecast is this will be battling until the price corrects and the 21MA catches up with the price level. At that point the uptrend will resume. We saw yesterday at 2:00 pm EDT that after the announcement of -0.5 in the interest rates the market skyrocketed creating a new intraday ATH, this was faded almost immediately, followed by wild swings to the upside, and downside, this conference was different from previous ones because of the battle between the high and the low of the session. Basically this was a "shaking the tree" scenario. The momentum is showing a Negative Divergence in both the Daily and Weekly timeframes (higher levels, lower momentum), this forecasts a market reversal. We'll see a continuation of the uptrend, which will trigger a frenzy buy spree, the market is going to enter in a highly greedy phase, and if you follow the market history, this is the point where the institutional market will get liquidity before the big drop. I don't forecast a strong reversal in the short term, but probably next year. The institutional market needs lower interest rates to go shopping at lower prices, that is the point where we'll see a very aggressive reversal caused by panic selling. Unemployment ticked up, Oil ticked up. This hints a market cool down. Still we're in full employment levels, nothing to worry about at this time. These are not recession levels, just slowing down, which are a good timing to start lowering interest rates. It may create a bit of inflation, but let's see how the balance of the FED interest rates equation behaves, inflation + employment + GDP. Higher index levels, lower momentum, lower inflation, employment in check, a 0.5 interest rate cut. Looks good, specially in an election year, which historically is a triggering element for volatility.
SP:SPXLong
by Madrid
Fed Kicks Off Rate-Cutting Cycle. Why the Muted Market Reaction?Central bank bros met traders’ loftiest expectations with a half-point cut to interest rates on Wednesday. But is that too good to be true and maybe even a signal of some problems with the US economy and looming fears over at the Fed? Trading today isn’t the same as trading yesterday. Even though prices don’t really confirm it — there wasn’t a super-duper rally in stocks. Maybe gold XAU/USD flickered a bit, but it was mostly froth . And here we are — the first day of trading in an environment with lower interest rates. Jay Powell, head of the Federal Reserve, announced on Wednesday the first trim to borrowing costs in four years. The move ushers in a new normal where US interest rates USINTR are projected to continue moving lower from their 23-year high of 5.5%. The easing cycle kicked off with a jumbo-sized 50 bps (basis points) slash. Surprisingly, the Fed went for the juicier, bolder and more aggressive option, leapfrogging the less interesting and exciting cut of 25 bps. First reactions across the board showed investors were hyped to get what they wanted — the broad-based S&P 500 hit an intraday record . Shortly after, however, stocks across the board pulled back and markets became anxious over the outlook as the realization kicked in. If the economy is doing fine, why go big on cuts from the get-go? What’s more, central bankers are keen to ax interest rates by another half point in 2024, ultimately wrapping up the year with the benchmark rate sitting at 4.25% to 4.5%. Christmas may come early — the Fed meets twice more this year, on November 7 and December 18. Better Safe Than Sorry? A super-sized half-point cut could actually be a pre-emptive measure to alleviate a strained economy. But if inflation is now largely in the rearview mirror , what could the problem be? The other mandate. The Fed has a dual mandate of keeping prices in check (inflation) and upholding a stable labor market (jobs). “We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress towards price stability,” Jay Powell said at the annual Jackson Hole gathering last month. And indeed, America’s jobs have seen a pronounced slowdown over the past few months. In July, markets added just 89,000 jobs (revised from an initial estimation of 114,000 ). In August, hiring had picked up modestly to 142,000 , but below expectations for 164,000. Pros and Cons of Bumper Cut Essentially, this big-boy cut of 50 bps is a double-edged sword. It cuts into borrowing costs, making money more affordable, potentially stimulating businesses to add more jobs and grow their gig. And it also prompts consumers to take on debt and get that house. But on the flip side, a cut of that magnitude risks stirring up price pressures again. To get to full employment, the Fed faces the challenge of knocked inflation waking up from its slumber. The size of the cut at this particular time doesn’t mean anything without the markets’ reaction to it. Apparently, investors were unimpressed and shrugged it off as no big deal. Looking ahead, however, the stakes are high because stocks are at all-time highs. The S&P 500 touched a record, Big Tech is leading the charge into artificial intelligence and investors can’t own enough of the highflyers Nvidia NVDA , Meta META , Apple AAPL , etc. The actual picture will become clear once markets figure out what the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle means and what to do about it.
Editors' picks
SP:SPX
by TradingView
25
SP500The SP500 is currently showing strong bullish momentum, with price action above the 20-period EMA across multiple timeframes. The RSI indicates overbought conditions, suggesting the possibility of a short-term pullback, but the overall trend remains bullish. A potential buy opportunity could emerge after a slight correction around the 5,670-5,680 support zone. The target would be near 5,730-5,740, with a stop placed below 5,650 to protect against downside risk. Keep an eye on volume and market sentiment for further confirmation.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by lucasmagalhaesa
S&P 500 Breaks Wedge Pattern, Eyes 6020 TargetThe S&P 500 has triggered a 64-day-old wedge pattern, signaling the potential for the index to rally towards 6020 in the coming weeks. The pattern remains active as long as the index trades above 5618, with initial support forming at 5685. A sustained move above these levels could confirm further bullish momentum, while a drop below 5618 would invalidate the setup. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
SLong
by ThinkMarkets
SPX500 / US500 Bank Money Heist Plan On Bullish SideBonjour My Dear Robbers / Money Makers & Losers, 🤑 💰 This is our master plan to Heist SPX500 / US500 Bank based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal / Trap at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich. Attention for Scalpers : If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money 💰. Note: If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money. Entry : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Swing Low Stop Loss 🛑 : Recent Swing Low using 30m timeframe Warning : Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️ comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update. Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target. Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style. Stay tuned with me and see you again with another Heist Plan..... 🫂
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by Thief_Trader
S&P500 Powell gave what the market wanted. Rally up to mid-2025?Chair Powell went out and did it yesterday as the Fed didn't just cut the Interest Rates yesterday for the first time since March 2020, but did so by -0.50%, giving the market what it so desperately wanted. The question now on everyone's mind is this: is this what the market needed to extend the 2023 - 2024 rally? Fundamentally of course the cuts is a strong reason and as for the technical part we will let an old analysis of ours (last updated May 16, see chart below): As you can see, we published that at a time when there were again voices over an extended correction due to April's strong red candle. What happened instead? The S&P500 (SPX) posted 4 straight green months (not including September). Once again we present to you this chart, to help everyone maintain a healthy long-term perspective. Wide, long-term time-frames like 1W or 1M (such as the current one) succeed at filtering out the short-term noise caused by volatility, news etc. As you can see on this chart, which we named "The Ultimate stock market cheat sheet", the index goes through very distinct market through roughly the past 20 years. More specifically, since the 2007/08 Housing Crisis, there is a very consistent pattern and the Sine Waves display perfectly that frequency. The first observation is that there is a rough frequency when the S&P500 tops every 3.5 years. In this time-span of 42 months (3.5 years) the index either hits a High or already has and is on a minor decline before a stronger correction comes, which is always within the technical standards of pull-backs within a greater Bull Cycle expansion. Roughly also, the sell signal is given after the 1M RSI breaks below its MA (yellow trend-line) having previously been on overbought territory (above 70.00). Once the index hits the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) again, usually a year at most after the Sine Wave top, the most optimal long-term buy signal emerges again. Investors who have applied this strategy/ principle since 2009, have had a total of 5 excellent buy opportunities for tremendous gains at the lowest possible risk. In conclusion, the market still has almost another year (roughly), until a sell signal emerges (July 2025). In our opinion, having always a low risk profile in our investments, it is advisable to be off stocks before that date just to be on the safe side. The important outcome of this finding, however, is that investors can continue feel safe buying for several more months, especially after the Fed gave a strong excuse to do so. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
Market Caution: Key Bearish Indicators Emerge After Fed CutFollowing the Fed rate cut last night, the S&P sold off into the close, forming a shooting star candlestick, which is typically a bearish signal. Coupled with a diverging RSI, this marks the third failed attempt to break above the 5670 July high. These indicators are compelling enough to consider a more cautious, short-term negative stance on the market, especially if we see further weakness today to confirm the pattern. Initial support levels are the 5402 September low and the 200-day MA at 5188. For those unfamiliar, a shooting star candlestick is characterized by a long upper shadow, little to no lower shadow, and a small real body near the low. It appears during an uptrend and suggests a potential reversal. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
SP:SPXShort
by The_STA
5
EUR/USD Forecasting: A Complex TaskEUR/USD Forecasting: A Complex Task Forecasting the EUR/USD exchange rate is a challenging endeavor due to numerous factors influencing its movement. These include economic indicators from both the Eurozone and the United States, geopolitical events, central bank policies, market sentiment, and technical analysis. Key Factors to Consider: Economic Indicators: Interest Rate Differentials: The relative interest rates between the Eurozone and the United States can significantly impact currency exchange rates. Higher interest rates typically attract capital, leading to a stronger currency. Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Economic growth rates in both regions can influence currency values. A stronger economy often leads to a stronger currency. Inflation: Higher inflation can weaken a currency as it reduces the purchasing power of domestic goods and services. Trade Balances: A trade deficit (importing more than exporting) can put downward pressure on a currency, while a trade surplus can strengthen it. Central Bank Policies: Monetary Policy: The actions of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) can have a profound impact on exchange rates. Interest rate changes, quantitative easing, and other policy measures can influence capital flows and currency values. Geopolitical Events: Political Instability: Political turmoil or uncertainty in either region can lead to currency volatility. Trade Wars: Trade disputes or tariffs can disrupt global trade and affect exchange rates. Market Sentiment: Risk Appetite: Investor sentiment can influence currency markets. During periods of risk aversion, investors may favor safe-haven currencies like the US dollar. Forecasting Methods: Fundamental Analysis: This involves analyzing economic indicators, central bank policies, and geopolitical events to assess the underlying value of a currency. Technical Analysis: This method uses historical price data and charts to identify patterns and trends that may predict future price movements. Quantitative Analysis: This approach employs statistical models and algorithms to analyze large datasets and identify correlations between variables that may influence exchange rates. It's important to note that no forecasting method is foolproof. Currency markets are highly volatile, and unexpected events can significantly impact exchange rates. A combination of fundamental, technical, and quantitative analysis can provide a more comprehensive understanding of market dynamics.
SP:SPXLong
by ITManager_US
The U.S. is now entering a recessionThe U.S. economy has faced a number of factors in recent years that may increase the likelihood of a recession. My expectations regarding the recession were not about whether it would happen or not. The fact that a recession would occur was already confirmed in 2023, and the question was only when it would start and how soon it would happen. During the current crisis, the U.S. postponed the recession by all possible means, but eventually, all confirmations of the recession's onset were received. Now the U.S. is triggering a new global crisis, which will be accompanied by all the resulting consequences, including its spread around the world. Let’s take a closer look at the key aspects: 1. Inflation and Monetary Policy - High Inflation: Inflation in the U.S. has long remained above the target level of 2%, forcing the Federal Reserve (Fed) to take measures to contain it. The rapid increase in interest rates to fight inflation may slow economic growth, raising borrowing costs for businesses and consumers. - Tight Monetary Policy: The Fed has raised interest rates to a level that many economists consider "restrictive," making it harder to access credit, reducing investment activity, and limiting consumer spending. 2. Labor Market Situation - Labor Market Challenges: While the U.S. labor market has been strong for a long time (low unemployment, steady wage growth), there are signs that companies are starting to cut back on hiring, and layoffs are increasing. The reduction in jobs in the tech sector in late 2023 and early 2024 could be a precursor to slowing economic activity. - Declining Productivity: In some industries, productivity is falling, which may indicate an overheated economy and a subsequent slowdown in activity. 3. Consumer Activity - Rising Borrowing Costs: Higher interest rates are leading to increased costs for mortgages and consumer loans, which reduces spending. With 70% of the U.S. economy dependent on consumer spending, a decrease in activity could lead to a slowdown in GDP growth. - Decline in Real Incomes: Despite wage growth, high inflation can erode real incomes, which limits consumption. 4. Geopolitical Factors and Instability - Geopolitical Instability: A complex geopolitical environment is driving up costs for energy, food, and other key goods, which could negatively impact the U.S. economy. - Supply Chain Issues: Supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic and geopolitical risks, although somewhat eased, continue to affect production processes and trade. 5. Debt Burden and Budgetary Issues - Government Debt: U.S. debt continues to rise, and the government is struggling to service it in an environment of high interest rates. This increases fiscal pressure and reduces the ability to use budgetary stimulus in the event of a recession. - Budgetary Constraints: The reduction in budget programs and fiscal stimulus introduced in response to the COVID-19 pandemic may also contribute to slowing economic activity. 6. Financial Markets - Stock Market Volatility: Instability in financial markets and falling asset values can reduce household and investor wealth, leading to lower consumption and investment. - Credit Risks: Rising interest rates may lead to an increase in loan defaults and debt obligations, worsening financial stability. Forecast and Probability of a Recession - According to estimates from many analysts and economists, the probability of a recession in the U.S. in 2024 remains high — around 50-60%, given current economic factors. - The main risks are associated with the overly tight monetary policy of the Fed, geopolitical instability, and rising borrowing costs, which limit activity from both consumers and businesses. - However, some economists believe that a soft landing (without a deep downturn) is possible if the Fed can balance inflation and economic growth. Thus, the recession is confirmed.
CBOE:SPXShort
by Smollet
1