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This is a test on SPX500Short thesis for SPX500 🚨 Market Alert: SPX500 Approaching Critical Zone (April 6, 2025) Volatility (VIX) just surged to 45—markets are feeling significant fear. This creates high-quality swing-trading opportunities. 🎯 Why this area is important: Key Support Flip: Previous strong weekly resistance could now act as critical support. High-Timeframe Imbalance: SPX500 is retesting the exact demand zone that launched the powerful rally from October 2022 → February 2024. 50% Fibonacci Level: Perfect retracement to the midpoint of the entire 2022–2024 bullish leg. ⚠️ What I'm watching for (No-Chase Method): ✅ Lower-timeframe liquidity sweeps + Break of Structure (BOS) as confirmation. ✅ Volume spikes indicating smart-money engagement. ✅ Signs of VIX easing (below ~35), reinforcing bullish reversal thesis.
FX:SPX500
by soppiestdragoon
1
Trump’s Triumph or Tragedy?Introduction The S&P 500 recently faced a sharp decline, with many rushing to blame renewed trade war tensions under President Trump's second term. But is this downturn truly a political reaction — or was it already baked into the market’s DNA? A deeper dive using Elliott Wave Theory suggests something far more structural: the recent fall is part of a broader wave pattern, and the real crash hasn’t even begun. A Look Back: How the Market Reacted to Tariffs in Trump's First Term During Trump’s first presidency: First Tariff Hike caused an 11.77% drop Second Tariff Hike led to an 8.35% decline China’s reaction triggered a 20% fall Despite this turbulence, the market rebounded sharply, climbing 44% post-trade war — forming a textbook Wave 5 extension. This historical context is crucial: event-based declines often align with technical wave structures, not random panic. Why the Market Fell Now (and Not Earlier) Trump’s second term victory wasn’t unexpected. Neither was his return to tariff-heavy policies. So why didn’t the market react earlier? 📉 Because this isn’t about tariffs. It’s about Wave 4. The current market downturn coincides with the natural Wave 4 correction of a multi-decade Elliott Wave cycle. This phase is often sharp and emotional — yet incomplete. The final Wave 5 rally is still ahead, possibly pushing the index to new highs above 7,000. The Calm Before the Storm: What Comes After Wave 5 Following the euphoric rally of Wave 5, the market is expected to face a massive correction — Wave II — projected to be as severe as the 2008-09 financial crisis, if not worse. Potential triggers: Overleveraged markets Global debt bubbles Geopolitical instability Inflation shockwaves AI and tech overvaluation Conclusion: Trump’s Triumph or Tragedy? This wave analysis raises the question: will Trump’s second term be remembered for a market rally or a devastating crash? The answer may be both. ✅ Short-term triumph via Wave 5 ⚠️ Long-term tragedy via Wave II The smart investor will ride the wave — but also prepare for the fall. Key Takeaways: Current decline = Wave 4, not the final crash Wave 5 (upside) may still take S&P to new highs Post-Wave 5 = Major correction, possibly like 2008 Trump’s tariffs are catalysts, but not the root cause Technical patterns > political events in long-term moves
SP:SPX
by BISHNU_P_BASYAL
1
S&P 500 Index Hits 2025 Low Following Trump's TariffS&P 500 Index Hits 2025 Low Following Trump's Tariff Announcement As shown on the S&P 500 Index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) chart, the benchmark US stock index dropped below 5,450 points for the first time in 2025. This decline reflects the US stock market’s reaction to the tariffs imposed by the White House on international trade. According to Reuters: → President Donald Trump announced a 10% tariff on most goods imported into the United States, with Asian countries being hit the hardest. → This move escalates the global trade war. "The consequences will be devastating for millions of people worldwide," said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, adding that the 27-member EU bloc is preparing to retaliate if negotiations with Washington fail. Financial Markets’ Reaction to Trump’s Tariffs → Stock markets in Beijing and Tokyo fell to multi-month lows. → Gold hit a new all-time high, surpassing $3,160. → The US dollar weakened against other major currencies. The S&P 500 Index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) is now trading at levels last seen in September 2024, before Trump's election victory. Investor sentiment appears to have turned bearish, with growing concerns over the impact of Trump's tariffs, as fears mount that they could slow down the US economy and fuel inflation. Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) The bearish momentum seen yesterday signals a continued correction, which we first identified in our 17 March analysis. At that time, we mapped out a rising channel (blue) that began in 2024, suggesting that selling pressure might ease near its lower boundary. However, Trump's policy decision has reinforced bearish confidence, and now the price may continue fluctuating within the two downward-sloping red lines. This suggests that the long-term blue growth channel is losing its relevance. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:SPXM
by FXOpen
1
More down for SPX500USDHi traders, Could an outlook be more accurate then this? Last week I said that SPX500USD could see more downside. I also annotated the liquidity on the chart where we could see a reaction. And what did price? It took the liquidity, made a correction up (orange wave 2) and dropped. Did I know the news before? No of course not. This is the power of Wave analysis. If you've followed my outlook, you could have made much profit. Now for next week we could see a small correction up and more downside for this pair. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for a small correction up on a lower timeframe to trade shorts. If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis. Don't be emotional, just trade your plan! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by EduwaveTrading
1
S&P 500 Down 3% – Divergence AppearsThe S&P 500 (SPX) continues to show a strong bearish bias and is approaching the 5,300-point level in the short term. Selling pressure remains steady as post-“Liberation Day” uncertainty persists, with markets concerned that the recently announced tariffs could significantly impact the U.S. economic outlook. As a result, this could severely limit the performance of equity indices like the S&P 500. Bearish Channel Since February 20, the SPX index has maintained consistent downward momentum, establishing a new bearish channel in the short term. The index has now broken below the key 5,400-point support level. However, the speed of the recent declines may have created an imbalance in market forces, which could pave the way for a bullish correction in upcoming sessions. Divergence in Indicators MACD: Both the MACD line and the signal line have shown higher lows in recent trading sessions, which contrasts with the lower lows in the SPX price, indicating a bullish divergence. RSI: The RSI is showing a similar pattern, with the line forming higher lows while price continues to make lower lows. Additionally, the RSI is now approaching the 30 level, which is typically considered the oversold zone. These divergence and oversold signals suggest that bearish momentum has accelerated sharply, potentially signaling short-term exhaustion. As the balance between buyers and sellers begins to stabilize, this may be an early indication that upward corrections could occur in the next few sessions. Key Levels: 5,780 points – Distant resistance: This level aligns with the 200-period moving average. A return to this zone could mark the start of a new bullish phase, posing a threat to the current bearish channel. 5,530 points – Near resistance: This area corresponds to neutral levels seen in recent weeks. It may become a target zone for potential corrective upward moves. 5,388 points – Key support zone: This level matches the lowest prices since September 2024 and is where the price is currently consolidating. If the index breaks decisively below this level, it could lead to a more extended bearish channel in the short term. By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by FOREXcom
1
June 2026 Sp500 will be at 7000 pipsThis is a corrective move. Trump wanted this to deal with the US debt. Everything is smoke a Trump crash. Nothing else. In June 2026 Sp500 will top at 7000 pips in a massive EW 5. Now we are in EW 4. It will take some time to settle the dust as you can see. Be ready, because after Sp500 bottoms out around 4700-4900 pips we will see a MOASS in the next year. After that, be ready, as well, to see a massive crash to 2500 pips that we will see at the end of 2028.
SP:SPXLong
by josemanuelmaestrerodriguez
1
Retracement complete?This is absolutely beautiful. Rode some of the move down (should have stayed in longer!) but I think potentially the downward technical move may be approaching an end, at least near term. Long term, if the fundamental issue of tariffs and recession risk does not subside, we may see much lower levels given that we hit the upper end of a trendline that goes from 2000 and 2008 highs. I have more thoughts on this, but will revisit and do an update on the plot a month from now.
SP:SPX
by unknownreference
1
US500: Trend Shift - Potential Break of Key Support LevelsThis analysis focuses on the US500 chart, a representation of the S&P 500 index, a key indicator of the US stock market's performance. The chart displays price action over a 4-hour timeframe, offering a medium-term perspective. The analysis aims to identify potential support levels and assess the likelihood of further bearish movement. 2. Key Findings and Supporting Evidence: Bearish Trend: The chart clearly shows a prevailing downtrend. The price has been making lower highs and lower lows, signifying strong selling pressure. Breakdown of Rising Wedge: A rising wedge pattern, often considered a bearish reversal pattern, is visible between March 11th and March 27th. The subsequent breakdown from this wedge has confirmed the bearish sentiment and suggests a continuation of the downtrend. Potential Support Levels: The chart highlights three potential support levels: 5500 (Current Level): The price is currently hovering around this level. A break below this level could trigger further selling. 5504.2 (First Target): This level is marked as the first potential target for the bearish move. 5441.3 (Second Target): This level represents a more significant support and a deeper potential target. Trading Strategy Indication: The chart suggests a potential short-selling opportunity, with entry around the current level (5500) and targets at the identified support levels. The stop-loss is placed above the recent high to manage risk. High Volatility: The sharp price swings and the length of the red (bearish) candles indicate high volatility, suggesting strong momentum behind the downtrend. 3. Relevant Data and Statistics (Inferred): Timeframe: 4-hour chart. Index: US500 (S&P 500 equivalent). Recent High: Approximately 5800. Recent Low: Approximately 5486.7. Potential Support Levels: 5500, 5504.2, 5441.3. 4. Discussion of Implications and Potential Future Trends: Market Sentiment: The breakdown from the rising wedge and the continued bearish momentum suggest a shift in market sentiment towards increased pessimism. Economic Factors: The downtrend could be influenced by various economic factors, such as rising interest rates, inflation concerns, or geopolitical uncertainties. Risk Management: Traders should exercise caution and implement proper risk management strategies, including stop-loss orders, due to the high volatility. Potential for Rebound: While the current trend is bearish, it's essential to acknowledge the possibility of a rebound or consolidation at the support levels.
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by ultreosforex
1
Could the US500 be setting up for a bounce?Hello, The US500 is trading near the trend line, a key area where technical investors will be looking for a bounce back. While the current market remains choppy due to tariffs from the US president, technical analysis does offer us key areas where we can look for entries going forward. What is certain is that this is not the time to panic and sell all your held positions. As always, during moments like these composure + a clear plan are your best line of defence. Probabilistic thinking as well can go a long way in identifying great opportunities. We’re all dealing with known and unknown variables now, and there’s no shame in saying, "I don’t know." For me I see opportunities in the S&P especially because the news is already out. Additionally, we are coming into earnings season when the market is at the bottom. Companies that show resilience will attract early investors and the index will bounce back. So please keep your long-term view. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:US500Long
by thesharkke
Bullish Divergence and the Impact of Trump’s TariffsOn the daily chart of the S&P 500, I’m currently spotting a clear bullish divergence. This type of divergence is a technical pattern that suggests that, despite recent price drops, the downtrend is losing momentum and a potential upward move could be on the horizon. It shows that the index has underlying strength, which the price hasn’t fully reflected yet — making a bullish reversal very likely in the short to mid-term. In this context, the recent drop in the S&P 500 has been largely driven by Donald Trump’s tariff announcements, especially targeting China and other countries. However, based on my analysis, I believe that these tariffs were more of a negotiation tactic than a long-term economic strategy. And now that things are clearly not going as expected, I’m convinced that Trump will be forced to scale back the tariffs or start accepting less favorable trade agreements just to stop the bleeding — because I highly doubt he will allow this sharp market decline to continue unchecked. Why tariffs aren’t coherent or beneficial for the global economy Tariffs are additional taxes on imports. Although they’re often marketed as a way to protect local industries, in reality, they increase prices for consumers and destabilize global supply chains. The result is damaging for both the countries imposing the tariffs and those receiving them. In the case of the U.S., despite Trump’s promises, these tariffs are actually hurting American companies that rely on imported materials and products, leading to higher internal costs and squeezing consumers. Worse yet, this ongoing trade war has created a climate of global economic uncertainty, which is driving down investment and confidence. That uncertainty has translated into market selloffs around the world, and the S&P 500’s current decline is a direct reflection of that. Importantly, it’s U.S. businesses — not foreign governments — who are absorbing the cost of these tariffs. What to expect going forward Despite the pressure from tariffs, I believe that Trump — seeing the damage already being done to the markets — will have no choice but to start dialing things back. My take is that to avoid a deeper economic hit and restore investor confidence, the U.S. will likely pursue more balanced deals, even if it means compromising a bit. If this scenario plays out, I expect the S&P 500 to begin recovering, especially as investor uncertainty fades. The bullish divergence on the chart further reinforces the idea that once these external political and economic pressures ease, the market could see a strong and sharp rebound. Conclusion Trump’s tariffs were intended as leverage — but they’re clearly backfiring and doing more harm than good. The current S&P 500 correction, in my opinion, is actually a buying opportunity for those with a long-term view. With potential tariff reductions and fairer trade deals on the horizon, the market is likely to rebound strongly, especially with the bullish divergence we’re seeing on the charts. Markets may have already priced in the worst, and now we’re seeing the first technical signals of a potential turnaround. If confirmed, the price could begin to rally significantly in the coming days or weeks.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by EmmanuelCova
1