All roads leads to ROME 6300-6500 area major top candidate for this cycle, many factors converging around this area
USSP500CFD trade ideas
S&P 500 hits all-time highsUS stock index futures were a touch lower this morning, pulling back following gains for all four majors on Thursday. Yesterday the S&P 500 finally broke above 6,100 to hit a fresh all-time high, while also posting a record close. The Dow and NASDAQ 100 were both around 1% below their respective all-time highs, while the mid-cap, domestically-focused Russell 2000 is now 6% adrift. Bear in mind how the Russell outperformed the other indices in the aftermath of Trump’s decisive electoral victory in November. Could this suggest that there are problems in the broader US stock market, away from the giant multinationals? The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is unchanged from yesterday at around 4.63%. The pullback in yields since last week’s benign inflation data is giving equities some support. The US dollar has fallen from the 26-month highs hit just under a fortnight ago. The Dollar Index has lost around 2.5% since then which is a significant move. Prior to Trump’s inauguration, the dollar had rallied, partly on the expectation that he would impose immediate swingeing tariffs from ‘Day 1’ as he threatened while on the campaign trail. The dollar retreated as tariffs weren’t forthcoming, and it fell further overnight following Trump’s call for an immediate cut in interest rates. His call comes just ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting. Although the probability of another cut from the Fed is realistically zero. The fourth quarter earnings season has had a positive start, and this is helping to support equities. Today brings results from a range of corporates across different sectors including American Express, Verizon Communications, NextEra Energy, HCA Healthcare and some regional banks. There are also updates on US Manufacturing and Services PMIs.
S&P500: Be careful of this 4H Golden Cross.S&P500 is on a very healthy bullish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 61.261, MACD = -3.250, ADX = 30.268) and on 4H it is about to form the first Golden Cross since August 21st 2024. During these 5 months, the trend has been heavily bullish but the 4H Golden Cross only managed one last High before the price corrected again to the 1D MA100. The 4H RSI indicates that we might technically be at the start of this final High pricing. For now we will stay bullish (TP = 6,165) but after that, we will only buy again on the 1D MA100.
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SPX500 to find a top?US500 - 24h expiry
Price action continues to trade around the all-time highs.
Previous resistance located at 6102.
A 5 wave bullish count has been completed at 6107.
There is scope for mild buying at the open but gains should be limited.
Further downside is expected and we prefer to set shorts in early trade.
We look to Sell at 6102 (stop at 6147)
Our profit targets will be 6003 and 5955
Resistance: 6102 / 6107 / 6179
Support: 6003 / 5955 / 5886
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What Is the January Effect on Stock Markets and What Traders Do?What Is the January Effect on Stock Markets and What Traders Do?
The January effect has long fascinated traders, highlighting a seasonal pattern where stock prices, especially smaller ones, tend to rise at the start of the year. But what drives this phenomenon, and how do traders respond? This article dives into the factors behind the January effect, its historical performance, and its relevance in today’s markets.
What Is the January Effect?
The January effect is a term used to describe a seasonal pattern where stock prices, particularly those of smaller companies, tend to rise during January. This phenomenon was first identified in the mid-20th century by Sidney B. Wachtel and has been widely discussed by traders and analysts ever since as one of the best months to buy stocks.
The effect is most noticeable in small-cap stocks, as these tend to show stronger gains compared to larger, more established companies. Historically, this uptick in January has been observed across various stock markets, though its consistency has diminished in recent years.
At its core, the January effect reflects a combination of behavioural, tax-related, and institutional factors. Broadly speaking, the phenomenon is linked to a surge in buying activity at the start of the year. After December, which often sees tax-loss selling as traders offload poorly performing stocks to reduce taxable gains, January brings renewed buying pressure as these funds are reinvested. Additionally, optimism about the new year and fresh portfolio allocations can amplify this trend.
While the January effect was more pronounced in earlier decades, changes in trading patterns and technology have made it less consistent. Yet, it still draws attention, particularly from traders looking for seasonal trends in the market.
Historical Performance and Data
Studies have provided empirical support for the stock market’s January effect. For instance, research by Rozeff and Kinney in a 1976 study analysed data from 1904 to 1974 and found that average stock returns in January were significantly higher than in other months. Additionally, a study by Salomon Smith Barney observed that from 1972 to 2002, small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks in January stock market history by an average of 0.82%.
However, the prominence of the January effect has diminished in recent decades. Some studies indicate that while January has occasionally shown strong performance, it is not consistently the well-performing month. This decline may be attributed to increased market efficiency and the widespread awareness of the effect, leading investors to adjust their strategies accordingly.
Some believe that “as January, so goes the year.” However, Fidelity analysis of the FTSE 100 index from its inception in 1984 reveals mixed results. Out of 22 years when the index rose in January, it continued to produce positive returns for the remainder of the year on 16 occasions. Conversely, in the 18 years when January returns were negative, the index still gained in 11 of those years.
Check how small-cap stocks behave compared to market leaders.
Factors Driving the January Effect on Stocks
The January effect is often attributed to a mix of behavioural, institutional, and tax-related factors that create a unique environment for stock market activity at the start of the year. Here’s a breakdown of the key drivers behind this phenomenon:
Tax-Loss Selling
At the end of the calendar year, many traders sell underperforming stocks to offset gains for tax purposes. This creates selling pressure in December, especially on smaller, less liquid stocks. When January arrives, these same stocks often experience renewed buying as traders reinvest their capital, pushing prices higher.
Window Dressing by Institutions
Institutional investors, such as fund managers, often adjust portfolios before year-end to make them look more attractive to clients, a practice called "window dressing." In January, they may rebalance portfolios by purchasing undervalued or smaller-cap stocks, contributing to price increases.
New Year Optimism
Behavioural psychology plays a role too. January marks a fresh start, and traders often approach the market with renewed confidence and optimism. This sentiment can lead to increased buying activity, particularly in assets perceived as undervalued.
Seasonal Cash Inflows
January is typically a time for inflows into investment accounts, as individuals allocate year-end bonuses or begin new savings plans. These funds often flow into the stock market, adding liquidity and supporting upward price momentum.
Market Inefficiencies in Small-Caps
Smaller companies often experience less analyst coverage and institutional attention, leading to so-called inefficiencies. These inefficiencies can be magnified during the January effect, as increased demand for these stocks creates sharper price movements.
Why the January Effect Might Be Less Relevant
The January effect, while historically significant, has become less prominent in modern markets. A key reason for this is the rise of market efficiency. As markets have become more transparent and accessible, traders and institutional investors have identified and acted on seasonal trends like the January effect, reducing their impact. In financial markets, the more a pattern is exploited, the less reliable it becomes over time.
Algorithmic trading is another factor. Advanced algorithms can analyse seasonal trends in real-time and execute trades far more efficiently than human traders. This means the potential price movements associated with the January effect are often priced in before they have a chance to fully develop, leaving little room for manual traders to capitalise on them.
Regulatory changes have also played a role. For instance, tax reforms in some countries have altered the incentives around year-end tax-loss harvesting, one of the primary drivers of the January effect. Without significant December selling, the reinvestment-driven rally in January may lose its momentum.
Finally, globalisation has diluted the January effect. With global markets interconnected, price trends are no longer driven by isolated local factors. International flows and round-the-clock trading contribute to a more balanced market environment, reducing the impact of seasonal trends.
How Traders Respond to the January Effect in the Stock Market
Traders often pay close attention to seasonal trends like the January effect, using them as one of many tools in their market analysis. While it’s not a guarantee, the potential for small-cap stocks to rise in January offers insights into how some market participants adjust their strategies. Here are ways traders typically respond to this phenomenon:
1. Focusing on Small-Cap Stocks
The January effect has historically been more pronounced in small-cap stocks. Traders analysing this trend often look for undervalued or overlooked small-cap companies with strong fundamentals. These stocks tend to experience sharper price movements due to their lower liquidity and higher susceptibility to seasonal buying pressure.
2. Positioning Ahead of January
Some traders aim to capitalise on the January effect by opening a long position on small-cap stocks in late December, possibly during a Santa Claus rally, anticipating that reinvestment activity and optimism in January will drive prices up. This approach is not without risks, as not all stocks or markets exhibit the effect consistently.
3. Sector and Industry Analysis
Certain sectors, such as technology or emerging industries, may show stronger seasonal performance in January. Traders often research historical data to identify which sectors have benefited most and align their trades accordingly.
4. Potential Opportunities
Active traders might view the January effect as an opportunity for shorter-term trades. The focus is often on timing price movements during the month, using technical analysis to identify entry and exit points based on volume trends or momentum shifts.
5. Risk Management Adjustments
While responding to the January effect, traders emphasise potential risk management measures. Seasonal trends can be unreliable, so diversification and smaller position sizes are often used to potentially limit exposure to downside risks.
6. Incorporating It Into Broader Strategies
For many, the January effect is not a standalone signal but part of a larger seasonal analysis. It’s often combined with other factors like earnings reports, economic data, or geopolitical developments to form a more comprehensive approach.
The Bottom Line
The January effect remains an intriguing market trend, offering insights into seasonal stock movements and trader behaviour. While its relevance may have shifted over time, understanding it can add value to market analysis. For those looking to trade stock CFDs and explore potential seasonal trading opportunities, open an FXOpen account to access a broker with more than 700 markets, low costs, and fast execution speeds.
FAQ
What Is the Stock Market January Effect?
The January effect refers to a historical pattern where stock prices, particularly small-cap stocks, tend to rise in January. This trend is often linked to tax-loss selling in December, portfolio rebalancing, and renewed investor optimism at the start of the year.
What Happens to Stock Prices in January?
In January, stock prices, especially for smaller companies, may experience an uptick due to increased buying activity, caused by a mix of factors, including tax-loss selling, “window dressing”, seasonal cash inflow, new year optimism, and market inefficiencies in small caps. However, this isn’t guaranteed and depends on various contextual factors.
Is December a Good Month for Stocks?
December is often positive for stocks, driven by the “Santa Claus rally,” where prices rise in the final weeks of the year. However, tax-loss selling, overall market sentiment and geopolitical and economic shifts can create mixed outcomes for the stock market, especially for small-cap stocks.
Is New Year's Eve a Stock Market Holiday?
No, the stock market is typically open for a shortened trading session on New Year's Eve. Normal trading hours resume after the New Year holiday.
Which Months Could Be the Best for Stocks?
According to theory, November through April, including January, have been months when stocks performed well. This trend is often attributed to seasonal factors and increased investor activity. However, trends change over time due to increasing market transparency and accessibility. Therefore, traders shouldn’t rely on statistics and should conduct comprehensive research.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
SPX/ Critical Price Zones and Bullish trend The current price action is trading at a bullish level within a sensitive zone, marked between 6,102 and 6,002. For today's projection, the price is expected to initially test the upper boundary of this zone at 6,102. Upon reaching this resistance level, it is anticipated that the price will face rejection, leading to a short-term correction. However, following this retracement, bullish momentum may resume, driving the price upwards again with an aim to break the last resistance level at 6,102.
If this breakout occurs, the market would likely establish a new high level, signaling a continuation of the uptrend. Conversely, for a bearish scenario to unfold, the price would need to decisively break below the 6,002 support level. This would require a 4-hour candle to close below this critical zone, confirming a downward trend. If such a break occurs, it could lead to a significant price drop, potentially targeting the lower support levels.
S&P 500 Index Sets Record HighS&P 500 Index Sets Record High
As shown by the S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), the stock index:
→ has increased by approximately 3.5% since the start of the year;
→ surpassed its previous all-time highs set in December.
Market participants’ optimism was driven by:
→ a strong start to earnings season and expectations of robust reports from major tech companies;
→ statements made by Donald Trump at the Davos forum, where the US president urged Saudi Arabia to lower oil prices and expressed the view that interest rates should be reduced. Overall, such measures are expected to foster economic growth.
Reuters quoted Lindsay Bell, Chief Strategist at 248 Ventures: buyers "like the idea of interest rates coming down, of oil prices coming down. All in all, the market is optimistic the more they hear about Trump policies. We're just seeing a reflection of that optimism."
Technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) reveals:
→ At the end of 2024, price fluctuations formed an ascending channel (marked by blue lines).
→ The December dip appears to be a correction within the prevailing uptrend. Bears managed to push the price below the lower blue line, but only for about a week.
→ After breaking the correction channel (shaded in orange), bulls faced brief resistance (indicated by the arrow) at the 6040 level.
→ The RSI indicator is in the overbought zone and signals divergence. This suggests a minor pullback could occur, potentially testing the aforementioned 6040 level.
Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Market Snapshotwww.elliottwavetrader.net
Another great write-up by Avi Gilburt and team on the current state of things at a Macro level
Not affiliated with them and not pushing any of their services of course..
Do I agree with everything they say? Nope
The below snippet from the article hints at the TRUE reason why things are going to get desperate in this economy over the next decade:
"QE is merely a machination through which more debt is made available in the system, which is an indirect manner to increase the money supply. It is not actual printing of dollar bills, which would directly increase the money supply. Therefore, if more debt is made available, the only way you will get inflation is if there is public demand for that additional supply of debt. Without the matching demand for the additional debt supply, QE becomes a failure."
Trump vs. Fed: USD down, S&P upDuring his presidential campaign, Donald Trump suggested he should have influence over interest rate decisions.
Now, the US dollar has weakened, and the S&P 500 has reached record highs as Trump publicly demanded that the Federal Reserve lower interest rates.
Although Trump doesn't have the power to overrule the Federal Reserve, his unconventional politicking means he might be able to find a way to push through his agenda.
These remarks come just days before the Fed’s upcoming two-day policy meeting, which will conclude on Wednesday with an interest rate decision. However, markets are pricing in almost no chance of a further cut to the benchmark borrowing rate.
Additionally, Trump stated he would ask Saudi Arabia to lower oil prices, which caused crude oil prices to decline.
For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox.
S&P 500 Analysis: Approaching All-Time High with Critical LevelsS&P 500 Analysis
The price has risen approximately 1.00% since yesterday, driven by strong earnings results. It is currently aiming to reach the (ATH) of 6100. A pullback to 6073 and 6051 is likely if the price stabilizes below this level.
However, if a 4-hour candle closes above 6100, the bullish trend is expected to continue, targeting 6143.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 6100
Resistance Levels: 6120, 6143
Support Levels: 6073, 6051, 6020
Trend Outlook:
Bullish if the ATH of 6100 is broken.
Bearish while the price remains below 6100.
previous idea:
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 1.23.2024🔮
📅 Thu Jan 23
🗓️ Day 4
📍 WEF Annual Meetings
⏰ 8:30am
📊 Unemployment Claims: 221K (prev: 217K)
⏰ 11:00am
🎙️ President Trump Speaks
🛢️ Crude Oil Inventories: -0.1M (prev: -2.0M)
💡 Market Insights:
📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ:
If we gap up once more, we will break all-time highs. This will be met by a big decline to juice liquidity.
📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ:
Only resistance left, looking for a small pop up into the weekly zone to get a drop back down into the HCZ and HEL.
📉 GAP BELOW HCZ:
We will likely get a small bounce, hold, and chop down.
#trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing
$SPX Analysis, Key Levels & TargetsThe expected move for today is between 6185 and 6150 and that is a .50% move today and the only level we have in our trading range today is that 35 EMA you could see it’s been a pretty support all week and then we have that up gap from This Wednesday, which could give some added support at the bottom of the trading range. Monday’s contract at the bottom takes us in the middle of that gap and with how extremely overbought we are that 50 day moving average could be a really great target for next week.
Stock Market Show Relative Initial Calm After Trump InaugurationFollowing the inauguration of Donald Trump and the observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day, U.S. stock markets resumed activity with a positive tone, as the S&P 500 advanced 0.4% at the start of the session. This initial optimism is supported by the relative calm that followed the first day of operations under the new administration.
Although the president reiterated his intention to reform the trade system to “protect Americans” and threatened tariffs and duties on foreign countries, later making specific references to Mexico and Canada with a potential 25% tariff starting in February, the absence of concrete measures created a sense of tranquility in the markets. This lack of immediate action, contrasting with prior rhetoric, has been a key factor for stabilization.
The initial moderation in implementing trade measures, compared to the campaign tone, has injected caution and optimism into the markets. This pause allows investors to carefully assess future economic directives.
This respite is also reflected in the fixed-income market. Yields on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond have declined, dropping below the 4.6% threshold after hitting a multi-year high of 4.8% on January 14. This decline in yields supports risk-taking in other assets, fueling optimism in the equity market.
However, it is crucial to remain cautious. While the absence of drastic initial measures has calmed markets, uncertainties surrounding trade policies are likely to resurface in the future. Potential trade moves and their impact on inflation remain a risk factor to closely monitor.
It is too early to celebrate a definitive victory on the trade front. Tensions are highly likely to reignite and generate market volatility. The key will be to observe the evolution of negotiations and the actual implementation of announced policies.
Looking ahead, attention will begin to shift to the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Investors will be particularly attentive to any indications providing clarity on the stance of the Federal Reserve (Fed), especially following the economic optimism that characterized the early weeks of January. Recent inflationary economic data, such as the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which showed positive surprises, have helped to relatively moderate expectations for a more restrictive monetary policy.
The FOMC meeting will be crucial to understanding the Fed’s view on the current state of the economy and its future outlook. Any signals regarding the direction of interest rates, as is customary, will have a significant impact on the markets.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
Sell In May and Go Away?The best that I can see at this point in time. I think trading under Trump will be volatile and the volatility will continue to be realized through the tape until midyear. I see 6308 to 6371 as top targets at this time, the path is very uncertain but against most thoughts of a parabolic move, I think EW prevails and timing sets up for midyear reversal and possibly the end of this large large bull run. Time will tell. Im often wrong. Not financial advice.
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 1.24.2024🔮
📅 Fri Jan 24
⏰ 8:30am
📊 Core PCE Price Index m/m: 0.1%
📊 Employment Cost Index q/q: 0.8%
⏰ 9:45am
📊 Chicago PMI: 36.9
💡 Market Insights:
📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ:
A further gap up would lead to it holding for a little, then dropping back down into the EEZ.
📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ:
Trump mentioned he will try to lower the rates. Let’s see how the markets adjust to it, but definitely expecting a little more bullishness to the upside.
📉 GAP BELOW HCZ:
A large recovery will allow the markets to tag the red lines before closing slightly lower below the weekly HPZ.
#trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing
SPX500 Bullish Bias!
HI,Traders !
SPX500 is trading in an
Uptrend and the Indice has
Formed a bullish flag
Pattern so as the Indice
Is breaking out we
Are bullish biased
And we will be expecting
A further move up!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
US500 Price can continue move down Hi traders what do you think about US500 given suggestion in comments.
US500 suggesting a bearish trend with potential support levels at 6015.00 and 5810.00. If you're considering taking a position based on this analysis:
Bearish Trend: You might expect the price to continue lower from current levels.
Entry at 6015.00: If the price approaches this level and starts to show signs of reversal, you could consider shorting (selling).
Support at 5810.00: the price continues to fall or reverses. If it breaks this support, further downside may be expected.
if you like this analysis please support my work like and fallow thanks for love.
SP500 market structure analysis on 4h and M15 timeframes- 4H swing is bearish => Current is pullback.
- M15 swing is bearish
High probability of price decrease following the main trend of 4H timeframe.
We can look for selling opportunities in the supply zone of 15min timeframe
US500 will continue go upIt just begin the up trend in W1 chart, and continue go up for a couple of weeks
The S&P 500 May Have Positive SignsStocks have declined since early December, but some traders may expect the longer-term uptrend to resume.
The first pattern on today’s S&P 500 chart is 5,783, the close on Election Day (November 5). The index tested and held that level last week, potentially suggesting support is in place.
Second is the falling trendline along the recent peaks. SPX may be attempting to push back above that resistance.
Third, MACD is turning higher and prices are back above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA).
Next, the 63-day rate of change has been positive since November 2023. It bounced slightly above 0 last week to preserve that condition. Prices also held their rising 100-day SMA. Those points may confirm longer-term strength.
Speaking of November 2023, last week saw the 10-year Treasury yield revisit levels from that period before dipping. Staying below those levels may be a positive for sentiment.
Speaking of sentiment, the American Association of Individual Investors' (AAII) weekly survey just had a bullish reading of 25 percent and a bearish reading of 41 percent. Those were the most extreme on the negative side since early November 2023.
In other words, three indicators point back to the start of the current bull run in November 2023: 63-day rate of change, the 10-year Treasury yield and AAII sentiment. In addition, data from FactSet suggests earnings are poised for their quickest growth since late 2021.
Could those points -- combined with the technical patterns on SPX -- be interpreted as positives?
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US Investors Focus on Earnings and S&P 500 OutlookUS Equity Investors Focus on Corporate Earnings and Policy Announcements
US equity investors are set to focus on major corporate earnings this week while also keeping an eye on potential trade policy announcements from the Trump administration and developments in macroeconomic data.
S&P 500 Analysis
The S&P 500 price continues to exhibit bullish momentum, supported by strong buying pressure and robust fourth-quarter earnings results.
There is potential for a corrective move toward 6000, which could act as a springboard for a further rally. If the price pushes higher, it may target 6051, and a sustained move above this level could see it test 6099. A 4-hour candle close above 6099 would strengthen the bullish case.
To turn bearish, the price must break below 6000 and achieve a 4-hour candle close below 5969.
Key Levels
Pivot Point: 6020
Resistance Levels: 6051, 6099, 6143
Support Levels: 6000, 5969, 5937
Trend Outlook
The trend remains bullish while the price stays above 6020 and 6000. A break below these levels could indicate a bearish shift.
Previous idea:
S&P 500 INDEX ,,, UPDATE CHARTThe S&P 500 index is approaching a critical level, and if it successfully stabilizes above this threshold, we can anticipate further market growth. Meanwhile, the following stocks are experiencing pullbacks to previously broken levels. If these pullbacks are completed and accompanied by a bullish trigger, they may present attractive buying opportunities.
BKR-ZBRA-AON-LRCX-AMAT
SP500 Waiting for a pullback With the good news, the indices appear to have broken out of their downward trend. A pullback is expected on the SP500, and this retracement would occur in the 0.5 - 0.61 Fibonacci zone.
