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S&P 500 Eyes New High Amid Fed Rate CutsAs Fed Rate Cuts Loom, U.S. Economic Health May Determine Market Trajectory The performance of stocks, bonds, and the dollar following the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate-cutting cycle could hinge significantly on the health of the U.S. economy. The Fed is poised to commence a series of rate cuts on Wednesday, having previously raised borrowing costs to their highest levels in nearly two decades. Market expectations, as indicated by LSEG data, point to an approximate 250 basis points of easing by the end of 2025. S&P 500 Technical Analysis: The price is nearing its all-time high (ATH) and shows potential to break through and set a new ATH, driven by the impending rate cuts. The S&P 500 is expected to test the 5675 and 5707 levels. Sustained stability above this zone could propel the index to new highs around 5780 and 5820. Conversely, a downside move could be triggered by stability below 5643, targeting the 5584 level. Key Levels: Pivot Line: 5675 Resistance Levels: 5707, 5745, 5780 Support Levels: 5643, 5620, 5585 Trend Outlook: Consolidation: 5643 - 5707 Upward Trend: Above 5675 Downward Trend: Below 5643
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
1
SPX500 Will Go Lower! Short! Take a look at our analysis for SPX500. Time Frame: 2h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a significant resistance area 5,716.20. Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 5,672.36 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
FX:SPX500Short
by SignalProvider
1
FED Cutting Interest Rates Is NOT BullishAs of this week the FED has announced that they will be slashing the FED funds rates by 50bps (0.50%). Contrary to popular belief, this is not necessarily bullish. Actually, the last three times that they did it was an indicator that a bear market was coming. As seen on the lower chart, once the FED cuts the rates, it has often signaled a stock market crash in the not so distant future. Do you think a stock market crash is coming? Share your thoughts🙏
SP:SPXShort
by FieryTrading
12
S&P 500 forecast: Outsized rate cut music to bulls’ ears. S&P 500 forecast: The US stock market has shown impressive resilience following the recent volatility. Investors, thrilled by the Federal Reserve’s outsized rate cut, have pushed index futures higher. However, there are mixed opinions about what lies ahead. For now, it looks the S&P 500 will finish the week at a fresh record high. Fed’s Rate Cut and Its Impact on Markets The Federal Reserve’s decision to deliver a 50-basis point rate cut was largely welcomed by investors. The move was seen as a bold but necessary step to ease economic concerns without sending panic signals reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasised that the cuts are not part of a long-term strategy but rather a proactive measure aimed at stabilising growth, now that inflation appears to be on the path of returning to its target. Markets initially sold off but quickly rebounded, with S&P 500 futures suggesting a potential new record high is on the horizon at the cash open today. The Dot Plot projection also boosted investor confidence, showing a possible 50 basis points of cuts this year and 100 next year, with the terminal rate expected to hit 3.0% by 2026. But what now? Can the S&P 500 Rally Continue? With the S&P 500 up nearly 19% year-to-date, investors are wondering if the rally can be sustained. On the surface, it appears that market sentiment is bullish, bolstered by the Fed’s actions and a series of robust earnings reports. Yet, looming risks, such as global economic slowdown in the Eurozone and China, may challenge this optimism. Moreover, seasonal trends indicate that September is typically a tough month for equities, adding a potential headwind to the current rally – although so far this hasn’t held investors back. With the US presidential election approaching, market volatility could spike, leaving investors hesitant to dive into new rallies without a clear trend. S&P 500 forecast: Technical Analysis and Key Levels to Watch Despite some volatility after the Fed’s rate cut, the S&P 500’s bullish trend remains intact. Traders should keep an eye on the support range between 5613 and 5670, with the upper end of this range marking the high from July. As long as the index holds above this support area, the short-term path of least resistance will remain upwards, potentially keeping the market on course to head towards 5800 or even the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level of 5827, derived from the drop in July. However, a dip below 5613 would signal a shift towards bearish sentiment, potentially pushing the index down to its next support and short-term trendline around the 5480-5500 area. Bearish Risks and Market Sentiment While the bulls are currently in control, bearish traders are watching for signs of a reversal. A drop below recent lows, as suggested above, could signal the end of the short-term bullish bias, reminiscent of the July sell-off when overbought conditions led to a sharp decline. Then, the signal came in the form of a bearish engulfing candle on 17 July. Bearish traders need to wait for a similar confirmation before making any significant moves, given the overall bullish structure of this market. Risk Management in a Volatile Market Regardless of whether you're bullish or bearish, managing risk is critical in today's market. With heightened uncertainty surrounding the economy and upcoming elections, volatility is expected to remain high. Traders should stay nimble and be prepared for sudden shifts in the market’s direction. In conclusion, while the S&P 500 forecast remains cautiously optimistic, several factors could derail the current rally. Staying informed and agile will be essential for navigating the coming weeks. We will, of course, highlight any major shifts in the trends, if observed. Stay tuned. -- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst
WHSELFINVEST:USSP500CFDLong
by WHSelfInvest
S&P500 H4 | Bearish Drop Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price has just reacted off our sell entry at 5,732.82, which is a swing-high resistance that lines up with the 127.20% Fibo retracement. Our take profit will be at 5,672.36, a pullback support level. The stop loss will be placed at 5,800.93, which is above 61.8% Fibo projection High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:SPX500Short
by FXCM
RATE CUTS AND AI WILL MAKE YOU RICHER AND RICHER EVERY DAY:)Here is what I believe will happen. It is very simple. No need to overthink it or overanalyze it with complex indicators. The Fed does not cut rates because the economy is projected to be good. They are cut to save the economy from recession. Its like getting a tan. You never know if your skin got burnt until the next day. And the economy is already burnt... In the next weeks and months, the skin will be flaking off:)
SP:SPX
by I_AM_FROM_THE_FUTURE
2
Forecasting the S&P 500Forecasting the S&P 500: A Complex Task Forecasting the S&P 500, a major stock market index, is a complex endeavor due to the multitude of factors influencing its movement. These include economic indicators, corporate earnings, interest rates, geopolitical events, and market sentiment. Key Factors to Consider: Economic Indicators: GDP Growth: A strong economy generally supports stock market growth. Inflation: High inflation can negatively impact corporate profits and stock prices. Unemployment Rate: A low unemployment rate indicates a strong labor market, which can boost economic growth and stock prices. Corporate Earnings: Profit Growth: Strong corporate earnings can drive stock prices higher. Earnings Expectations: Market expectations for corporate earnings play a significant role in stock price movements. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve Policy: The Federal Reserve's monetary policy, including interest rate changes, can impact stock valuations. Lower interest rates can stimulate economic activity and increase the attractiveness of equities. Geopolitical Events: Global Events: Political instability, trade disputes, or natural disasters can affect market sentiment and stock prices. Market Sentiment: Investor Confidence: Positive investor sentiment can drive stock prices upward, while negative sentiment can lead to declines. Forecasting Methods: Fundamental Analysis: This method involves analyzing economic indicators, corporate earnings, and other factors to assess the underlying value of stocks. Technical Analysis: This approach uses historical price data and charts to identify patterns and trends that may predict future price movements. Quantitative Analysis: This method employs statistical models and algorithms to analyze large datasets and identify correlations between variables that may influence stock prices. It's important to note that no forecasting method is foolproof. Stock markets are highly volatile, and unexpected events can significantly impact prices. A combination of fundamental, technical, and quantitative analysis can provide a more comprehensive understanding of market dynamics. Would you like to explore any of these factors or methods in more detail? I can also provide information on specific forecasting tools or resources.
SP:SPX
by ITManager_US
S&P 500 to print final move to 6500It goes without saying, this bull market has been the most hated I’ve ever known. Retail traders attempts to go “short” on every leg up resulted in quick squeezes. Every 1% to 4% correction brought renewed calls for the end of all things. Including time I believe. There is a reason why 90% of market participants fail in trading. Emotions. The last four long ideas published by Without Worries are linked below. Read the comments in each to get an impression of the distain retail traders have for this bull market. The Cup and Handle idea for example, published on November 9th 2023. Many reading the idea were understandably skeptic. I tell you that to tell you this... The idea was much more than a chart pattern. The idea included studies from Dollar index and more importantly market sentiment. So lets focus on those two in a little more detail. ** Market sentiment ** The market sentiment in November last was incredibly bearish. The Put/Call ratio was sky rocketing, in other words retail traders were all “short” on the market. That was a mistake. Guess what? They're doing it again. Weekly Put/Call ratio If you follow my practices you’ll know one of our golden rules, we never never long into active resistance. Just don’t. Don’t even think about it. On the above weekly Put/Call chart we can see retail traders are betting heavily with both feet for a market correction as the Put/Call ratio shows a strong demand for “Short” contracts. We can see RSI is actively rallying into resistance. Oh dear… ** The dollar index ** The dollar has entered a bull market. Or so it appears. On the 2-day chart below price action has printed a Life Cross with the index trading above the 2-day/200 sma. However on closer inspection just as in late 2022 and indeed late 2023, both price action and RSI support have failed. This will be a short lived bull market, for now. Support and resistance is the ultimate cheat code. It has been integral to the previous ideas shared. It amazes how many continue to dismiss the importance of practicing this simple concept. Look left. 2-day DXY ** The conclusion ** On the above monthly chart several technical developments have occurred. Together with market sentiment and dollar index structure, the combination provides a powerful message. The red arrows highlight each significant market top over the last 10 years when sentiment was incredibly bullish. The blue arrows record sentiment at extreme bearish levels. Here’s the interesting part, when sentiment was this bearish price action was already at the lower half of the rising channel. There is not an instance when a rise from lower to higher half of the channel with confirmation of support (we’ve confirmed) did not result in a resistance test at the top of the channel. The resistance is now between 6500 and 6700. Is it possible the market collapses like many retail traders are now calling for? Sure. Is it probable? No. Ww ** previous S&P 500 ideas ** S&P 500 - Cup and Handle S&P 500 - Why everyone is wrong S&P 500 - Why everyone is wrong - Part II S&P 500 to 6000
SP:SPXLong
by without_worries
107
Burned By A Melt UpTraders have always been taught to buy the rumor, sell the news. A mantra of no nonsense trading that more than often ..works When the Fed lowered interest rates in the US by .50 %, a highly expecting event, traders took the news in stride, and sold stocks. There was one fly in the ointment however. Overnight stock futures traders, began buying futures sensing a real upside pattern breakout on the day after. And from the opening bell this morning, prices have gapped up sharply realizing a technical, KST confirmed upside breakout that could send the S+P 500 to 5900. Sometimes when news is perceived as better than could be expected, price follows in tail. Big money traders are once again committing to the market, driving price much higher, as the naysayers rue how could such a thing happen to them. Bearish traders are now under water, as those who thought they could outsmart the market were burned,.. by the unexpected "melt up " THE_UNWIND WOODS OF CONNECTICUT 9/19/24
SP:SPX
by The_Unwind
1
All Time Highs piercedAfter the announcement of the FED to reduce interest rates, this attracted new money to the market, which made it easy to break the resistance at the All Time Highs (4670) level. What's next is the short term traders will be taking profits and the bears will be taking every dip to exit their short positions, creating pressure to the upside. My forecast is this will be battling until the price corrects and the 21MA catches up with the price level. At that point the uptrend will resume. We saw yesterday at 2:00 pm EDT that after the announcement of -0.5 in the interest rates the market skyrocketed creating a new intraday ATH, this was faded almost immediately, followed by wild swings to the upside, and downside, this conference was different from previous ones because of the battle between the high and the low of the session. Basically this was a "shaking the tree" scenario. The momentum is showing a Negative Divergence in both the Daily and Weekly timeframes (higher levels, lower momentum), this forecasts a market reversal. We'll see a continuation of the uptrend, which will trigger a frenzy buy spree, the market is going to enter in a highly greedy phase, and if you follow the market history, this is the point where the institutional market will get liquidity before the big drop. I don't forecast a strong reversal in the short term, but probably next year. The institutional market needs lower interest rates to go shopping at lower prices, that is the point where we'll see a very aggressive reversal caused by panic selling. Unemployment ticked up, Oil ticked up. This hints a market cool down. Still we're in full employment levels, nothing to worry about at this time. These are not recession levels, just slowing down, which are a good timing to start lowering interest rates. It may create a bit of inflation, but let's see how the balance of the FED interest rates equation behaves, inflation + employment + GDP. Higher index levels, lower momentum, lower inflation, employment in check, a 0.5 interest rate cut. Looks good, specially in an election year, which historically is a triggering element for volatility.
SP:SPXLong
by Madrid