Update on Gold and SPX - 12pmGold looks like an objective short trade again, although testing 3100 first is expected. SPX looks like it's consolidating before the move down I still expect.
USSP500CFD trade ideas
US 500 Index – Retracement Holds DeclineAfter one of the most extreme trading days for the US 500 index that we have seen since the pandemic of March 2020, a slightly uneasy calm has descended across markets this morning as traders await the next tariff updates from President Trump and his team of advisors.
Right now it is still unclear whether President Trump would provide an opportunity for individual trading partners to reduce the penalty level or gain exemptions from the reciprocal tariffs that are due to go into force tomorrow.
Traders are also on the lookout for any news from China regarding tariffs or fresh stimulus measures to support the economy, and the announcement of retaliatory actions from the EU are still on the horizon.
What is clear, is that as this unfolds across the rest of today and tomorrow, being prepared for any volatility in the US 500 index that may appear again, with a trading plan, clear assessment of technical levels to deploy any potential stop loss and take profit orders, may well be a solid approach to consider.
Technical Update: US 500 Index - Retracement Holds Decline
During times of market turmoil, where sharp declines in the price of an asset are seen to reverse what was previously a strong phase of strength, traders will often focus on using Fibonacci retracement levels to identify potential support levels.
Clearly, global equities have recently entered a period of uncertainty and aggressive price declines. However interestingly, the US 500 index has found support this week at a Fibonacci retracement level, which at least for now, has succeeded in holding declines, and is even starting to see attempts at an upside recovery materialise.
Looking at the weekly chart of the US 500 index above, we can see the latest price capitulation tested 4791, which is equal to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the October 2022 to February 2025 advance.
Traders may now be asking ‘Do the latest price declines to 4791, represent the extent of the current liquidation in assets, and can upside now emerge again?’
It is currently impossible to answer this question with any true conviction as there is still much to be heard from President Trump regarding tariffs, which will likely dictate future market sentiment and price trends.
However, monitoring important support and resistance levels over the upcoming trading sessions may help us gauge where the next potential directional moves may be seen in the US 500 index.
Possible Support Levels to Monitor:
Having tested the 4791 Fibonacci retracement level and seen a recovery develop from it this week, it may be suggested this remains an on-going downside support focus in price. As such, it may well be closing breaks of this level if seen, that could skew directional risks towards the potential of further declines.
Therefore, closes below 4791 might be an indication that the recent weakness may carry further to the downside, prompting traders to look for possibilities of a more extended decline in price. This may in turn lead to tests of 4474, which is the deeper 62% retracement, maybe even further if this gives way.
Possible Resistance Levels to Monitor:
Having seen the 4791 support hold and prompt the latest recovery moves, some traders may well be looking for the potential of a more sustained recovery in price, even though much will depend on the reaction to any future trade war escalation or easing of tariff concerns.
By calculating Fibonacci retracements on the latest US 500 index decline, we may be able to gauge possible target resistance levels if a recovery in price is to emerge.
The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the February 2025/April 2025 sharp sell-off stands at 5313. This may be an interesting level to watch, as if it were broken on a closing basis traders may start to look for fresh attempts to push towards higher levels once more. In this case, the 50% retracement resistance level which stands at 5474, and the 61.8% level at 5635, could be relevant.
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SP500 new ath soonBased on Elliott Wave Theory, one could expect the final wave of the bullish impulse. If it achieves an all-time high, speculation about continued upward momentum could persist. However, if it fails to surpass its previous high, it could lead to a deeper correction.
S&P 500 Market Analysis 04/05/2025The S&P 500 is currently undergoing a significant correction, having dropped approximately 17% from its all-time high. This decline coincides with renewed policy rhetoric from the U.S. President, particularly surrounding trade tariffs, which has historically triggered market uncertainty. This scenario echoes past events, where similar pullbacks followed a peak in parabolic price action. Notably, in 2022, after a parabolic surge, the S&P 500 dropped 27%, and in 2018, the index saw a 21% decline after a similar spike. These historical patterns suggest that the longer and more extended the parabolic rise, the deeper the eventual correction tends to be.
From a technical standpoint, the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has consistently acted as a reliable support level during past downturns. In both 2018 and 2022, the S&P 500 retraced down to this EMA before finding a bottom and beginning its recovery. Currently, the 200-week EMA sits around the 4,740 level, which could serve as a critical support zone that the index may attempt to retest before any meaningful rebound occurs.
In addition to this technical level, the SilentTrader Indicator—a proprietary tool analyzing multiple timeframes—has signaled bearish momentum across all major timeframes. The indicator is showing selling signals on the weekly, daily, and intraday charts, reinforcing the idea that the market remains under heavy downward pressure. The alignment of these bearish signals across multiple timeframes suggests that the S&P 500 could continue to face selling pressure in the near term.
Considering these factors, the current correction appears to be far from over. With macroeconomic uncertainties and the potential for continued tariff-related concerns, a retest of the 4,740 level—or possibly even lower—remains a likely scenario. Traders and investors should remain cautious and consider tightening risk management strategies until there is a clearer indication of stabilization or a trend reversal.
#SP500 #stockmarket #forextrading #forex #cryptocurrency #bitcoin #ethereum
Do not panic. Let's look for opportunity.Don't panic. Let's try to find the opportunity here. Let this be a place free of fear p0rn.
Yes, we bounced, but as you can see - we bounced at a perfectly logical place.
IF we go lower, where MIGHT the bottom be? Where might we get a major bounce? Let's assume this is something "historic". What I have indicated in the chart would be a crash worse than COVID, but not AS BAD as the Global Financial Crisis.
Take the long-term support (going back to GFC) and extend it out. Take the PRE-COVID high and extend it out. This may be an important coordinate, and even if we touch either of the lines, I would expect some bounce.
Let's see how it plays out.
STICK TO YOUR STRATEGY. Don't panic!
The Easy trade? SPY had a relentless sell off after open, which seems TOO easy for shorts. I explain why I think this may be a C wave with another move up starting tomorrow. Possibilities only.
SPX repeating 2022 patternI had said in a earlier post( see link to Related publication) that Vix is indicating we will be in 2022 style market and so far indeed it is, except for the breakdown from the wedge last week.
Expect the price to fluctuate within the wedge to consolidate before a breakout
The comparison shows close similarity of the wedge and path (except last week)
S&P INTRADAY oversold bounce backTrump threatened a 50% import tax on China, adding confusion over his global tariffs. China promised to hit back and moved to support its markets.
Stocks bounced slightly as investors looked for bargains, but uncertainty around U.S. trade policy remains. U.S. Treasuries rose after falling on Monday.
Wall Street is getting more cautious. BlackRock downgraded U.S. stocks, and Goldman Sachs warned the selloff could turn into a longer bear market.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5273
Resistance Level 2: 5379
Resistance Level 3: 5510
Support Level 1: 4815
Support Level 2: 4700
Support Level 3: 4585
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SPX500: The trendline show a bottom in Sept 2025 at 4700 We're being magnetically pulled toward the trendline bottom around 4700.
Based on the current MACD and RSI signals, the bearish scenario could continue until September–October 2025. This correction is very similar to the one from 2022.
There will be some dead cats bounces, but do not be fooled, the MACD is reseting hard.
Stay sharp. Be ready.
DYOR.
S&P500 6th time in 14 years that this buy signal flashes.S&P500 is sinking under its MA50 (1w) and is headed straight to the next support level, the MA100 (1w).
Last time it touched this level was in October 30th 2023 and that's alone a great buy signal.
It's the RSI (1w) you should be paying attention to as it is approaching the 33.00 level, which since August 2011 it has given 5 buy signals that all touched the MA100 (1w).
Obviously in 2022 we had a bear market, March 2020 was the COVID Black Swan and December 2018 the peak of the U.S.-China trade wars.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the MA100 (1w).
Targets:
1. 6500.
Tips:
1. This is a long term trade and it is all about your approach to risk. If you can handle unexpected dips below the MA100 (1w), then you will be greatly rewarded by the end of 2025.
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Are we done with the slide, or not? US indices are suffering right now, but is there light at the end of the tunnel?
Let's dig in!
MARKETSCOM:US500
MARKETSCOM:US100
MARKETSCOM:US30
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
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SP500: Is This the 2025 Correction? Or Just Another Bounce?Looking at the weekly chart of the S&P 500 with RSI and key support trendlines, it’s clear we’ve entered a historically important level.
🔍 Context:
2020 → COVID Crash, RSI bottomed 💥
2022 → Bear Market, RSI again flagged a major drop 📉
2023 → Healthy correction, price respected trendline support
2025? → RSI flashing oversold, price testing the long-term trendline again.
📊 RSI is approaching the same low levels as the previous two macro shocks — is this a signal of another reversal opportunity? Or could this time be different?
🚨 If we break below this trendline convincingly, it could open the door for a deeper bear leg. But if we hold, we might just see another bounce-back rally like in 2020 and 2022.
📈 Watch for confirmation:
A strong bounce with bullish RSI divergence = potential long
Breakdown + volume spike = more downside ahead
Let’s see if the trendline holds up — it has for 5 years… 👀
#SP500 #Correction #BearMarket #RSI #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketUpdate #2025Outlook #StockMarketIdeas
S&P 500 Update - 5200 on the horizonFrom an Elliott perspective the market appears to be in a 4th Wave correction. The a and b waves have completed and now the c wave is playing out.
If we look to a 1.618 extension of the a wave , the target projection is 5200.
The bias is to the downside and the bearish sentiment continues to 5200 and possibly an overshoot to lower levels.
SPX Update. High was called months ago. Now what!4940 is the .38% Retracement. If the current down move is a wave 4 we should find support bounce around this level. It can still move lower but the count loses confidence if we break the top of wave 1 (4809).
401(k)s: A Safe Bet or a Rigged Game?In 2008, the S&P 500 dropped 57% at its lowest, wiping out decades of savings for millions of Americans. People who were 5–10 years from retirement lost everything overnight—and they had no way out.
And here’s the problem:
• 401(k)s are heavily stock-weighted, especially those “target-date” funds that adjust based on age—but not fast enough in a crash.
• No active protection. These funds don’t hedge, use stop-losses, or rotate into cash. If the market dumps, you’re just riding it down.
• No control or transparency. Most people don’t even know what they’re invested in unless they dig deep into fund holdings.
It’s no coincidence that the same Wall Street firms managing 401(k)s make money shorting crashes or getting bailouts, while regular people are told to “just wait it out.” Sure, that might work over decades, but what if you’re close to retirement? Or just don’t want to wait 10 years for a recovery?
The Harsh Reality
• 401(k)s aren’t really optional. They’re the main retirement plan in the U.S., so most people are forced into them with few alternatives.
• Most people don’t actively manage them. They pick a default option, get put into a target-date fund, and hope for the best. That’s where the “sheep” feeling comes in.
• You can’t easily exit. There are penalties for withdrawing early, so in a crash, you’re locked in like a prisoner or financial refugee, while the “big boys” cash out first.
It’s not a scam in a legal sense—but it is a system that favors the knowledgeable and punishes the passive. Those who don’t study markets, adjust their portfolios, or take active control end up paying the price. And sadly, that’s the majority.
The PrecipiceWe are at an important level and time on the SP500. My feeling is we will have a rally - it may be brief, but I do think at the end of the day 4800 will hold even if they undercut it first. Targets on the upside could be 5200 (top of range) and possibly the 18 monthly ma at 5400.
SPX POSSIBLE RECOVERY UP TO 7000-7500first quarter wasn't bright for spx. but it can recover at moderate phase.
Trump’s Triumph or Tragedy?The S&P 500 recently faced a sharp decline, with many rushing to blame renewed trade war tensions under President Trump's second term. But is this downturn truly a political reaction — or was it already baked into the market’s DNA?
A deeper dive using Elliott Wave Theory suggests something far more structural: the recent fall is part of a broader wave pattern, and the real crash hasn’t even begun.
A Look Back: How the Market Reacted to Tariffs in Trump's First Term
During Trump’s first presidency:
First Tariff Hike caused an 11.77% drop
Second Tariff Hike led to an 8.35% decline
China’s reaction triggered a 20% fall
Despite this turbulence, the market rebounded sharply, climbing 44% post-trade war — forming a textbook Wave 5 extension.
This historical context is crucial: event-based declines often align with technical wave structures, not random panic.
Why the Market Fell Now (and Not Earlier)
Trump’s second term victory wasn’t unexpected. Neither was his return to tariff-heavy policies.
So why didn’t the market react earlier?
📉 Because this isn’t about Tariffs . It’s about Wave 4.
The current market downturn coincides with the natural Wave 4 correction of a multi-decade Elliott Wave cycle. This phase is often sharp and emotional — yet incomplete. The final Wave 5 rally is still ahead, possibly pushing the index to new highs above 7,000.
The Calm Before the Storm: What Comes After Wave 5
Following the euphoric rally of Wave 5, the market is expected to face a massive correction — Wave II — projected to be as severe as the 2008-09 financial crisis, if not worse.
Potential triggers:
Overleveraged markets
Global debt bubbles
Geopolitical instability
Inflation shockwaves
AI and tech overvaluation
Conclusion: Trump’s Triumph or Tragedy?
This wave analysis raises the question: will Trump’s second term be remembered for a market rally or a devastating crash?
The answer may be both.
✅ Short-term triumph via Wave 5
⚠️ Long-term tragedy via Wave II
The smart investor will ride the wave — but also prepare for the fall.
Key Takeaways:
Current decline = Wave 4, not the final crash
Wave 5 (upside) may still take S&P to new highs
Post-Wave 5 = Major correction, possibly like 2008
Trump’s tariffs are catalysts, but not the root cause
Technical patterns > political events in long-term moves
Lower from here Very possible. I know this looks bad, but I state my reasons why a final flush into tomorrow is looking likely as of now.
The Bullish AlternativeA channel for SPX is near 4800. if it holds this week, there is a very good possibility that a run to all time highs later in the year can happen. I explain in the video.
SPX500 (4H): LONG Position OpportunityHello Traders.
You may find more details in the chart!
Good Luck!
Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful.❤️
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 4, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this week's trading session, the Index experienced lower openings, completing the Outer Index Dip at 5403, as highlighted in the previous week's Daily Chart analysis. This development lays a foundation for a potential decline targeting the Outer Index Dip at 5026, with the possibility of further extension to the subsequent target of the next Outer Index Dip, 4893. An upward momentum may materialize at either completed target level, with the primary objective being the Mean Resistance level of 5185.
Capitulation Might be Close, but A Big Low Could Be Also.I've explained for a while my idea if 5500 isn't support for SPX then we see a capitulation period to the 5100 sort of area.
I think the case for this is picking up increasing merit. For a while I've not really been sure what to expect if that happened. My natural tendency to fade moves would make me naturally bullish but some different outcomes I considered would have that move being an important break and us only consolidating before heading lower.
With the way all of this is shaping up, I think if I see a capitulation period now I have a strong bull bias. I do think we might be setting up a much larger decline overall but a sharp drop here would usually give some sort of bull trap.
There are different ranges of bull traps. Shallow, mid and deep and spike out. Modern day markets run perpetually on hard-mode so it's reasonable to expect the most tricky one.
Big bull bias for the immediate term if we put in a capitulation swing.
I built up a position into the rally today. Which was not a lot of fun during sections of the day and harrowing for a moment late in the day but has me positioned well into the rally. I'm looking for a move down to under 5200 and close to 5100. My target would be 5150 or so at biggest with aggressive locking in near 5200.
If this move hits (especially if it hits with bad news), will be super bullish for the near term - but I would consider this an important bear break if it comes.
