11am updateWe had a rally from the channel, but right now I believe it's a correction of the first wave down. Above 5660 and it will likely mean we are headed to 5700+
I'm out for the day - good luck!
USSP500CFD trade ideas
US500: A correction will give a perfect opportunityHello,
The US500 has rebounded, maintaining its trendline as trade tension concerns subside. A promising trade setup is emerging, pending a minor correction on lower timeframes. The 2-hour and 4-hour charts indicate this correction is underway.
Long term target: $6,953
Consider entering a buy position near the moving averages, aligned with MACD signals.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
$SPX / $SP500 – China Deal or Global Meltdown? The Risk/Reward 📉 The S&P 500 ( SP:SPX / VANTAGE:SP500 / $ES_F) is at a geopolitical crossroads.
After the Global Pause, the index rebounded, but only to retest resistance near the 200-day EMA. Now it faces a binary outcome:
Scenario A: ✅ Deal with China
Estimated probability: 20%
Potential upside: +10%
Expected value: +2%
Scenario B: ❌ No Deal with China
Estimated probability: 80%
Potential downside: -50%
Expected value: -40%
📉 Expected move: -38% net Markets are not priced for this. Volatility ( TVC:VIX ) is quietly coiling under the surface (chart 2), ready to explode if the no-deal scenario materializes.
S&P 500 2025 and 1998Interesting and striking similarities. I think this week either confirms this or invalidates the idea.
Little Rest For SPXI think the SPX structure is more prone to bearishness. There is a structure that will probably move quickly in one direction. I don't think a good structure has been formed for a bottom. And the rise does not seem very strong. For this reason, I expect an increase after the first fall.
Since this situation will probably reflect on crypto, my bearish contracts are still in place. But I am thinking of buying a bullish contract until the FOMC time.
S&P 500 Tests Key Zone Ahead of FOMCThe S&P 500 has reached the 5,700–5,800 zone after a nearly 18% rally in just half a month. This zone could determine whether the rally marks the end of the bearish trend or if more pain lies ahead for the stock market.
The 200-day simple moving average, several previous horizontal support levels, and the most recent top all converge in this area. The upward move has been driven by correction dynamics, optimism around potential trade deals, signs of de-escalation with China, and rising expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2025.
This week, the FOMC may either temper those optimistic rate cut expectations or hint at a more dovish tone. In either case, some profit-taking may occur ahead of the meeting, and the 5,700–5,800 zone is a strong candidate for that to happen.
Important structure reached FridayThe trendline structure from the top was reached FRiday and I believe we may rally back to it at open but fail. There are a LOT of traders calling for a test of the 200 ma again, but I'm not sure it will actually occur. Vix also did not fill it's gap on Friday which could be interpreted as bullish for the VIX
SPX: trade should not be a weaponPositive sentiment continued on the US equity markets during the previous week, after stronger than expected US jobs data. The Non-farm payrolls posted on Friday reached 177K in April, which was significantly above the 130K expected by the market. The market estimate was significantly lower from March data, as analysts were expecting to see a spill over effect of the imposed trade tariffs. As the jobs market seems still quite strong, the positive market sentiment was intact during the week. However, the recession fears are still holding among investors. The S&P 500 continued its 9-days winning streak, ending the week at the level of 5.686.
On a positive side was the news that Chinese authorities are considering starting negotiations with the US Administration regarding trade tariffs. This was another positive boost for investors' sentiment. Berkshire Hathaway was holding shareholders annual meeting on Saturday, where the most attention of both media and investors was on the speech of its founder and famous investor, Warren Buffet. In his address to the shareholders, Buffet strongly criticized the trade tariffs, noting “Trade tariffs are an act of war … trade should not be a weapon’.
For the moment, it could be expected that the positive sentiment might continue also in the future period. However, the FOMC meeting and Fed rate decision is scheduled for Wednesday, May 7th. This could be a day of higher volatility, as Fed Chair Powell will address the public at the press conference after the meeting. The markets will closely watch what he has to say regarding the current state of the US economy and potential rate cuts during the course of this year.
SPX500 H4 | Falling toward a pullback supportSPX500 is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 5,789.71 which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 5,630.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 5,994.08 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
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Liquidity sweep. I see a nice opportunity for a buy after tapping into a liquidity pool . If SL is hit then I will start looking for sells.
S&P 500 Weekly PotentialVolatility, expressed through standard deviation, quantifies market elasticity and presents a level of probability and precision that humbles us all.
This week with SP:SPX bi-weekly trends have risen to just below our monthly values and are currently expansive over the markets IV prediction. Right now as I see it, HV10 is going resonate alongside our monthly values showing continued strength over IV. We could full regression to quarterly means as we move our of corrective territory then see consolidation to cool the markets down.
BOOST the post, drop a follow and comment, BUT don't circle back at the end of the week to revisit and observe how our trending markets preformed!
US500 | Potential Wyckoff Reaccumulation UnfoldingThe US500 appears to be working through a classic Wyckoff reaccumulation phase following a strong rally during price mark-up. After a swift move upward, price formed what looks like a Buying Climax , followed by an Automatic Reaction (AR) and now an Upthrust at the recent highs.
So far, volume and delta behavior are aligning well with this. During the upthrust , we saw increased volume, but delta turned negative, indicating selling pressure into strength. This was also accompanied by a CVD divergence, showing that although price pushed to new highs, the underlying buying wasn't supporting the move just yet. That often hints distribution by strong hands as late buyers step, likely fuel by the good ol' Trump Pump.
With that in mind, a pullback into the lower range is expected to create the Secondary Test (ST) . This could lead to a possible Spring , a shakeout below recent support (around the 5700–5720 zone) meant to trap sellers. Ideally, this would be followed by a Test , where price returns to the Spring zone on lower volume and stronger delta/CVD confirmation, signaling demand returning and absorption of supply. But this is all to be determined.
This doesn't have to play out exactly as I mapped. But if we see something similar play out, it would lead to higher prices and confirmation of the mark-up phase. Until then, patience is key, this phase of the structure is about traps and tests, not breakouts.
had a dream market went down 80%...an anecdotal visual representation of what that might look like. we may enter another depression, but its weather dependent. entering a 90 year drought cycle aka gleissburg cycle. hopefully i'm wrong.
SPX Roadmap May 2025Bears got trapped so then the bull scenario is on as long as key support holds into summer
SPX potentials for resistance & lowsI do dowsing & that's where I get my information from. I am expecting a move up tomorrow and then a high Wed./Thurs. with a reversal back down.
I've had levels around the 5450 area even since September, as well as dates suggesting a return to prices even lower from around November/December 2023, which if you recall, was the start of this big run up. I'm only showing the more near term idea, because that's what seems more clear.
The areas at the top are likely resistance in the near term. I'm not sure on timing for lows, but suspect something big in June/July.
I have some potentially important dates including this Thursday, as well as April 18th, 23rd, June 2nd and twice I get July 14th as well.
SPX: time to digest the uptrend?The S&P closed the week at 5,958, continuing its climb along a steep uptrend that’s been in place since mid-April. While momentum remains bullish, we’re now entering a zone where digestion or short-term pullbacks would not be surprising. And not because of weakness, but after every run is a period of digestion.
In this video I first go through how I clear out the noise to focus on the outlook for the next few weeks, re-chart my levels and trendlines, and walk through potential scenarios for the coming week.
S&P 100Trade Plan BUY S&P 100 ENTRY-1
Entry-1 5720
SL 5578
RISK 142
REWARD 1717
Target as per Entry 7437
RR 12.1
Last High 6147
Last Low 4843
Trend: All timeframes are in a clear UP trend, suggesting bullish sentiment across the board.
Demand Strength: As we move from macro to micro, the demand zones are increasing:
Macro demand: 4750 (lower)
Mid-term demand: 5398 (higher)
Micro demand: 5668 (highest)
Implication:
The upward trend across all timeframes and rising average demand zones suggest strong bullish momentum.
If price pulls back, the 4750–4807 zone could act as strong macro support.
For short-term entries or intraday trades, 5668 is the key support level to watch.
🔹 Macro View (Long-Term Demand Zones)
Time Frame Trend Proximal Distal Avg
Yearly UP 4818 4682 4750
Half-Yearly UP 4818 4682 4750
Quarterly UP 4818 4682 4750
Macro Avg UP 4818 4682 4750
🔹 Mid-Term View
Time Frame Trend Proximal Distal Avg
Monthly UP 4931 4682 4807
Weekly UP 5720 5578 5649
Daily UP 5787 5692 5740
Mid-Term Avg UP 5479 5317 5398
🔹 Micro View (Short-Term)
Time Frame Trend Proximal Distal Avg
240 Min UP 5691 5644 5668
180 Min UP 5691 5644 5668
60 Min UP 5691 5644 5668
Micro Avg UP 5691 5644 5668
Master Pattern SPX 500 We can see the Master pattern from Daily, 4 HR, and 30 Minute. We use the Larger Time Fram to identify the trend. Using the Lower time frame, the 30 minute, to enter the trade in the direction of the trend.
+10% from tomorrow till mid-MaySPX is getting ready to rebound with around 10% till mid-May. Invalidated if breaks below 5400.
SPX going to push more before going downmarkets are strong, suadi money buying, bears will believe we going much higher, they fomo, and just like that the dump begins.
Tariffs Shocked the World, But Look What Happened NextTrump's “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariff announcement triggered a sharp selloff in the S&P 500 on the 2nd April. A classic policy shock! But the market has since clawed back every point.
So what now? Let’s break it down by strategy.
🔎 Long-Term Investors: Stay the Course
1) This recovery reinforces one truth: When you own quality businesses, Volatility ≠ Risk. Policy creates opportunity, not exit signals.
2) Stick with great companies, buy on fear, and ignore the noise. The next 10 years won’t be won by panic.
⚡ Momentum Traders: Technical Reversal Delivered
1) S&P 500 bounced above its 30-day MA. With the May 12th’s bullish gap (post temporary tariff pause) confirming the trend shift.
2) This was a textbook momentum setup. But if you didn’t plan for the whipsaw, you missed the edge.
📈 What This Means Now
Short-term volatility is likely to continue as tariffs, rates, and elections are all on the table.
Watch for pullbacks into structure and keep risk tight as news-driven moves will be fast and brutal.
Choose your timeframe. Respect the trend. Don’t confuse noise with signal.
The edge now isn’t in prediction — it’s in preparation.
Weekly SPX Has A Bottom W Pattern Prompting More Upside!Hey Traders and Followers! SPX is going up!
Sounds crazy despite the tariff news floating around but charts never lie.
Here's what we got on the weekly SPX/USD; We have a bottoming W pattern. What's that mean? We going higher people.
5690.7 is the beakline area, price above invites bulls to a party.
Target for this long is at 6198.9 area. Support sits at 5579.4 for this one.
I'm letting you know about this party so up to you if you want to have a good time. See you all there with bells on and cash for all $ for those who show up.
Best of luck in all your trades $
Cheers!
SPX Short Trade idea. Short SPX target 2 days. buy a debit put spread 5880/5890. SPX is losing momentum and need to come down.
