Major shift on the S&P 500: Is the bull market really over ?
After three years of almost uninterrupted gains, the U.S. market has finally shifted gears.
In early March, following a sharp escalation in trade tensions between China and the United States, the S&P 500 officially entered a bear market.
The tariff shock acted as a catalyst: buyers failed to defend critical levels, and the bullish momentum broke down.
Today, my scenario is clear:
I believe we are entering a wide range similar to what we saw in 2022, between 4700 and 5500 points.
In this controlled volatility environment, both investing and trading strategies must adapt.
💰 For long-term investing:
I'm staying fully in cash.
I prefer to wait until my personal indicator flashes green again before re-entering the market.
Patience is my best weapon in uncertain environments.
🎯 For swing trading:
The approach here is more active.
Each touch of the lower boundary (around 4700) will be considered a tactical buy, aiming to resell around 5500 points at the top of the range.
No rushing, no chasing moves: I only act at the extremes.
USSP500CFD trade ideas
US500 at Critical Resistance - Weekly Chart Breakdown📊 US500 Weekly Chart Analysis
Taking a close look at the US500 on the weekly timeframe, we can see price has now traded directly into a bearish weekly order block 🧱 — a key distribution zone where smart money activity often emerges. At this level, the market is trading at a premium 💰 and appears to be overextended 📈.
⚠️ From a risk management standpoint, I’d advise extreme caution — the current conditions could set the stage for a sharp retracement, especially as we approach week’s end. This level aligns with areas where institutional players may look to offload risk or reverse exposure.
🔁 A potential pullback from here would not be surprising, given the elevated context and technical structure.
📚 This breakdown is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
Today is oct 14th 1929 I have moved back to Long puts at 105%The chart posted was in the forecast written dec 8th 2024 We have now reached my targets of 5669 area I have been buying the dips in calls and made $ I am now 105 % long in the money puts and I do Not see a bottom until july once we break and a second bottom mid oct The market should see a drop of 38 % into july and form a small double bottom in oct at 41 % off the highs . I will move to 125 % long puts on a sell stop at 5300 even the math at 5334 is key Best of trades WAVETIMER
US Markets on the Edge – Heavy Bloodshed Ahead!The charts are screaming caution!
SPX, Nasdaq, and major tech stocks are showing clear signs of exhaustion. We could be entering a heavy correction phase.
This is not the time to be greedy — protect your capital, manage risk, and tighten those stop losses.
Stay alert. Stay smart.
Massive moves are coming, and not everyone will survive them.
Mechanical Over Mood. AlwaysWell, this week really wanted to test both my trading discipline… and my tech patience.
My laptop decided to kick the bucket mid-session.
But honestly? Not even mad.
Because it reminded me of something traders forget too often:
Simple is better. Mechanical is best.
No charts? No problem.
Noisy bias? Ignore it.
Just follow the system and let the setups do the work.
And right now?
The market gave us a Tag off the lower Bollinger Band…
Then a Turn with some clean bullish pulse bars…
Now we’re tagging the upper band again.
Textbook mechanical structure.
No predictions. No overlays. Just rules.
Yes, compression still lingers – the bands are squeezed tighter than my laptop battery casing.
But until something breaks out (or explodes), I’m trading it simple.
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SPX Market View
Some days the market whispers.
Some days it screams.
And then… there are days like this – where it quietly tags, turns, and retags like a kid playing solo hide and seek.
Welcome to compression.
Welcome to Tag ‘n Turn 2: Return to the Band.
Yesterday gave us exactly what we needed:
Tag off the lower Bollinger Band
Bullish pulse bars firing in sequence
Now back to the upper BB as of this morning
It’s a full mechanical cycle playing out in slow motion.
The band width? Still squeezed.
So unless we get a confirmed breakout – no compounding, no fireworks, no fast lane.
That’s not a problem.
It’s a feature.
Why?
Because in environments like this, the strategy doesn’t just work – it filters the noise.
No guesswork. No hoping. No “is this the one?”
Just a defined setup, and a playbook that responds only when the price earns it.
I’m staying bullish as long as this range holds.
Pulse bars off the highs or lows? I’m in.
Breakout confirmed? Let’s ride it.
Dip to mid-band? Still valid.
The structure is intact.
The setup is valid.
And even if my laptop’s dying breath is a warning beep, I’ll still be trading off what matters.
Trade the system. Trust the sequence. Let the rest break down.
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Expert Insights:
Mistake #1: Overcomplicating compressed conditions.
Compression doesn’t mean “do more” – it means “do less, better.”
Fix: Let the pulse bar do the talking. Keep your setup clean.
Mistake #2: Ignoring band re-tags as valid setups.
Returning to the upper or lower band doesn’t invalidate the prior move.
Fix: Use structure. Re-tags can still deliver if pulse bars confirm.
Mistake #3: Letting tech failures bleed into trading decisions.
Just because your screen flickers doesn’t mean your system broke.
Fix: Stay mechanical. Even from a mobile. It’s not the gear – it’s the method.
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Rumour Has It…
Wall Street insiders are reporting that Apple’s next product will be the MacBook Trader, a laptop designed specifically to fail whenever Bollinger Bands compress.
Features include:
An auto-dimming screen whenever pulse bars form
A built-in “Hope Mode” that deletes your rulebook
And a random error that whispers “maybe just this once…”
Traders are advised to plug directly into their mechanical setups or, failing that, scribble strategies on a coffee-stained napkin like it’s 2002.
Rumour has it that a squirrel from Central Park is currently outperforming several hedge funds using nothing but broken Fibonacci tools and pure optimism.
This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!
Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?
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Fun Fact – Did You Know?
The term “Frankenstein” originally came from Mary Shelley’s story of a scientist trying to control something he didn’t fully understand…
Which is what most traders do with indicators.
They bolt on RSI here, MACD there, sprinkle in some Fibonacci dust, and hope it walks.
But the real monsters aren’t the tools – they’re discretionary trades pretending to be mechanical.
Moral of the story?
You don’t need a stitched-together algo monster.
You just need a clean pulse bar, a set of rules, and the ability to sit still.
Bulls and Bears zone for 05-01-2025S&P 500 is going to have a gap up Open and finally closing gap from early last month.
Also traders could be taking profit after yesterday's big UP move.
Level to watch: 5643 ---5645
Reports to watch:
US : PMI Manufacturing Final 945am
US : ISM Manufacturing Index 1000am
US : Construction Spending 1000am
S&P500 INTRADAY resistance at 5670Tech Surge Lifts Markets:
Strong earnings from Microsoft (+7.8%) and Meta (+6.2%) are driving early market optimism. Both beat revenue expectations, easing concerns about trade war impacts.
→ S&P 500 futures up over 1%.
Trade Deal Hopes:
Sentiment is boosted by signs that President Trump may soon announce initial trade agreements, reducing geopolitical risk.
Bank of Japan Dovish Shift:
The BoJ cut its growth forecast and delayed its inflation target, signaling caution.
Yen fell as much as 1.2%.
US-Ukraine Investment Deal:
The US secured privileged access to Ukraine’s natural resources, potentially helping ease tensions as part of broader efforts to end the war.
Earnings Watch:
Before Open: Mastercard, Estee Lauder, Eli Lilly, Moderna, McDonald’s
After Close: Apple, Amazon, Amgen, Airbnb, Reddit
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5670
Resistance Level 2: 5740
Resistance Level 3: 5820
Support Level 1: 5440
Support Level 2: 5385
Support Level 3: 5316
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
SPX Play-by-Play: From Trap to Trend and Back AgainJust price, structure, and volume — tracked in real time.
🧠 Chart Breakdown:
✅ Early Short Trap / Failed Breakdown — Sellers tried to press lower early, but price held key levels and reversed. That shift became the foundation for the entire move that followed.
✅ Breakout Long Trigger — After reclaiming structure, price drove into new highs with strong follow-through. Volume confirmed the breakout.
⛔ Top Rejection — Price pushed into resistance but couldn’t hold. Momentum faded, candles hesitated, and sellers stepped in.
✅ Fib-Based Bounce — After the pullback, price responded cleanly off fib-based support. The bounce was sharp, and volume backed it.
✅ Steady Uptrend Structure — Price moved in an orderly fashion. Small pullbacks held structure, and volume stayed supportive — a textbook controlled climb.
⛔ Range Resistance — Price returned to a previously rejected zone. Wicks and hesitation reappeared.
👀 Current Breakout Watch — Price is testing that resistance again. A reclaim with strength signals continuation. Another fade? Let it go.
Always happy to be helpful.
S&P 500 - Sell in May, return anther day. The truth - 2025No doubt everyone has heard a variation of the phrase:
“Sell in May, return another day.”
In Wikipedia it is written:
“Sell in May and go away is an investment strategy for stocks based on a theory (sometimes known as the Halloween indicator) that the period from November to April inclusive has significantly stronger stock market growth on average than the other months. In such strategies, stock holdings are sold or minimised at about the start of May and the proceeds held in cash”
A public comment from last year:
“Over 100 years ago, the (practical) reason to sell in May and September, was to pay seasonal workers to seed the field (May) and to harvest (September). Caravans of landlords and farm owners went to New York to sell stocks and withdrew money from the banks to do payrolls
so for people without agricultural business, i'll say it's okay to hold in May”
If we are to take all this at face value then we should be unwinding our long term positions until the Autumn?
What does the chart say?
On the above monthly chart of the S&P 500 each vertical line marks the month of May going back to 2012. That is a dataset of 13 points.
The facts:
1) From the month of May onwards, 11 from 13 periods returned positive price action of not less than 10%. Selling in May was a bad choice.
2) 2015 and 2022 saw corrections of 15% from May onwards. However in both examples the correction was erased within 12 months as the index continued the uptrend.
In summary, 86% of the time a minimum return of 10% was seen before the year end. Amazing odds.
Furthermore, corrections up and until the end of April (like we’re now seeing) represented some of the best long opportunities.
Sell in May go away? I suggest it should be: Buy in June and watch it boom!
Ww
SPX ready for the correctionhi traders,
This is probably not what most traders want to see but we must be realistic.
The monthly close is upon us and it's not gonna be a bullish close.
A lot of selling pressure and it may be just the beginning.
A 13 % correction on SPX is more than likely in my opinion.
If the price loses the upsloping support, we will see the mark-down pretty soon.
Stoch RSI suggests that the bears are taking control.
My target for SPX is between 5200 and 5000.
Get ready to buy cheap stocks and cheap crypto!
SPX Peaks at 6,100; Correction Toward 4,600 LikelyThe SP:SPX ’s rally, which kicked off at 3,500 in late 2022, climaxed around 6,100 in February 2025.
Since then, the trend has clearly reversed, and I expect the correction to persist. As long as the index remains below 5,800 (supply), downward momentum should continue.
A pullback toward 4,600 by 2026 appears plausible, with that level likely acting as resistance or support—warranting a fresh assessment upon arrival.
In the near term, the SPX is likely to trade within a 5,100–5,700 range.
Arshitecture / 30 Min Short Position SP500After the price reaches TP1, hold the current short position and consider adding to it on valid signals to ride the move toward TP2. Apply the same strategy for TP3, scaling in cautiously at key resistance zones.
I’ll share the key confirmations on the chart as they appear.
Goodluck BLUEBERRY:SP500
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): LONG to resistance area of 5682.Colleagues, I think that the deep downward movement is over and at the moment I expect an upward movement in a five-wave impulse. At the moment I expect a correction in wave “2” to the area of 5100, after which I expect the development of wave “3” at least to the resistance area of 5682.
There are two possible ways to enter the position:
1) Market entry
2) Pending Limit Orders.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
US500 - Long-Term Long!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈US500 has been overall bullish trading within the rising channel marked in blue.
Moreover, it is retesting its previous all-time high at $4,800 and round number $5,000.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of previous ATH and lower blue trendline acting as a non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #US500 approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Please criticise on this strategy using SPXI have not backtested this strategy and to use the "REPLAY" button would costs me some money so you can say, it is biased since the candles were already formed ahead.
Strategy -
Time frame - 1H
Risk/Reward - Keep to 1:2 strictly
Example : Trade Setup 1
11 Apr 25 candles closed above 10 Apr 25 - LONG
SL at closing of 10 Apr
Profit target - 1 : 2
You can see that you are stopped out AFTER you set up Trade set up 2 (21 Apr red candle), ie 10 days later , you are in a LOSS position.
Trade setup 2 -
Long on 17 Apr
got stopped out on 21 Apr when it gapped down. See the power of having a SL else your losses will magnified overnight!!!!
So in this chart, there were 5 trades, 3 in profits and 2 in losses. Overall, you gained because your rewards are 2x so in this case you won 3 multiply by 2x = 6x but your losses are 1x or 3 multiply by 1x= 3x so nett off you gained 3x
I would avoid using leverage to trade and keep to the strict rules of 1- 2 trades per week and strictly 1:2 risk/reward ratio. Of course , if you manually watch the chart live (meaning you need to stay awake to glue on the computer)
you might gained more than 1:2 risk/reward but that is not the essence of this strategy.
Keeping the frequency low tame your emotions (greed) of increasing your position size and risk/reward. What you want is CONSISTENCY not huge spike up and down. Don't think you can make 5x in a day and go on holidays for the next few days. You gotta put in the work (sufficient charting skills allow you to be more nimble and confident but not to inflate your ego by excessive trading).
I suggest paper trade for a good 1-2 months and see the results yourself BEFORE you say it work or doesn't. Paper trade is good especially for beginners but once you surpassed this stage, I think using your own money to trade is the real game. Staring at 10% loss is very real and some can take it well while others can't handle it and will manually adjust the SL or PT to modify the strategy. Keep it simple until you gained consistent profits.
As usual, please DYODD
SPX bullishI am now bullish in near term. For those following me, I have updated HILO EMA squeeze band with an option to plot more lines as seen this chart. I see a swing high of 5770, although a bit cautious about the month end. Market is tired of Trump tantrums and more focused on earnings which have been great so far. For near term month or two I would be looking for bye the dip