USTBTC trade ideas
BTC Short from H1 FVG + H4 OB Confluence — Risky Setup✅ Price in strong supply confluence (H1 FVG + H4 OB)
✅ SFP & order block add to short case, but context is choppy
⚠️ Trade is low conviction, manage size and stops accordingly
Short Scenario:
Entry: In $107,500–$108,500 zone (confirmation from SFP/OB)
Target: $104,000–$105,000 (D1 FVG zone)
Stop: Above $108,500 or invalidate on strong reclaim
🔔 Triggers & Confirmations:
Look for reaction (SFP, rejection wicks) in FVG/OB zone before adding
Exit quick if invalidated or strong momentum up
🚨 Risk Warning:
Not a high conviction setup; use smaller position size and stay nimble
BTC/USDT – Fakeout Above Rising Channel | Why Clean Breakouts StThis chart highlights an important lesson in breakout trading: Not all breakouts are valid, even when backed by volume.
🔍 Technical Breakdown:
BTC was trading inside a well-respected ascending channel, with multiple touches on both the upper and lower bounds.
Price broke above the channel with a 15-minute candle close and volume, giving the appearance of a clean breakout.
However, shortly after, price re-entered the channel, invalidating the breakout. This is what we call a fakeout or bull trap.
❓ So Why Did the Breakout Fail?
Lack of Follow-Through Buyers:
Despite volume, there wasn’t enough buyer continuation above the breakout level to sustain momentum.
Liquidity Hunt:
The wick beyond the upper trendline likely served to trigger breakout entries and stop losses of short sellers, only to reverse after liquidity was collected.
Key S/R Reaction:
After re-entering the channel, price reacted at a minor horizontal level (previous S/R), attempted another push, but failed again, confirming weakness.
Premium zone tagged — now we watch how the Smart Money reactsBitcoin just tapped into the 108,151 level — the top of a measured premium range and a likely area where profit-taking begins and fresh distribution footprints form.
This run-up wasn’t random. Price surged from inefficiency, cleanly filled the fair value gap (FVG), and is now flirting with a key liquidity pocket.
Here's what the structure says:
Premium reached: 108,151 (0% fib)
If rejection holds, Smart Money looks to discount entries:
0.236: 106,136
0.382: 104,889
0.5: 103,882
Deep retracement zone: 0.618 at 102,874
Final defense for bulls? The unmitigated FVG block between 101,440 → 99,613
Possible Playbook Scenarios:
Quick retrace → higher high:
Bounce off 104,889 or 103,882 before attacking 108,967+
Deeper sweep:
Into 102,874 (0.618) before Smart Money steps in again
Invalidation:
Break below 99,613 closes this bullish narrative and confirms a structural break
TL;DR Execution Logic:
Wait for retracement into 0.5–0.618 fibs
Look for bullish reaction (engulfing or SFP)
Upside targets:
108,151 (retest)
108,967 (liquidity sweep)
Further upside if momentum sustains
Long trade
🟢 Trade Journal Entry – Buyside Trade
📍 Pair: BTCUSDT
📅 Date: Monday, June 23, 2025
🕒 Time: 10:00 AM (NY Session AM)
⏱ Time Frame: Not specified (assumed 4Hr or intraday swing)
📈 Direction: Buyside
📊 Trade Breakdown:
Metric Value
Entry Price 101,705.24
Profit Level 108,783.85 (+6.96% %)
Stop Loss 99,579.47 (−2.09%)
Risk-Reward
Ratio 3.33 1
🧠 Context / Trade Notes:
High-Conviction Buyside Play:
Entry aligns with the broader BTCUSD bullish structure, supported by consistent higher-timeframe momentum.
Liquidity Grab Below Key Low:
Market swept downside liquidity near $99,600 before reversing sharply, indicating smart money accumulation.
Stop level moved (2.86%)
BTC: H4 Plan 25/06/25Trade Plan – H4 BTC
Market Context:
- Total market cap has retraced into a 4H order block
- BTC is holding stronger relative to total
- Market has been range-bound for 43 days – HTF is sideways
Key Levels:
- 3.18T on total = clean long trigger, aligns with BTC monthly close + daily FVG + 0.5 fib retrace
- 110k = equal highs, 0.886 fib level, clear derisk point for intraday and key supply zone
Trade Strategy:
- Wait for 3.18T retest on total market cap before entering
- Look to long BTC on any dip into monthly close + daily FVG + 0.5 retrace region
- Flip short at 110k – until breakout is confirmed, treat this as a range-bound environment
BTC/USD Thief Breakout at $107K – Eyeing $115K!🚨 Thief Entry Setup: BTC/USD Breakout Play 🚨
Overview:
Jump in after the $107 000 breakout—aiming for $115 000 with a tight “Thief SL” at $102 500. Adjust the stop‑loss to match your personal risk tolerance.
🧠 Setup Summary
Pair: BTC/USD
Entry trigger: Breakout above $107 000
Stop‑Loss: “Thief SL” at $102 500 (use your own risk‑based SL)
Target: $115 000
🎯 Why This Setup?
Clear breakout level at $107 000 = fresh momentum
Tight SL cushion (≈‑4.3%) = defined risk
Target ≈ +7.5% potential = strong reward-to-risk (~1.75:1)
📏 Risk Management Tips:
Only risk a small % of your capital—never exceed your comfort zone.
Move your SL to breakeven once mid‑target is hit to lock in profits.
Trailing your stop‑loss could secure bigger gains if BTC surges toward $115 000.
What now BTC?#bitcoin price has been moving in an ascending wedge for a few days. Although ascending wedges may end up bearish, there' s another chance for #btc price to break out this wedge and catch upper liquidities above 108K. But, also there' s a bearish divergence has been forming in this lower time frame chart of #btcusdt .
Maker may ignore this divergence and allow bots to print another HH but it' s now wise to be careful and watch out. The reverse is acceptable for #usdt dominance chart.
Breaking out 110K is the temporary invalidation of bull trap and above 120K is the complete invalidation.
A Disciplined Approach to BTC/USDT - Wait for the Right Set Up!Right now, I’m closely monitoring BTC/USDT — and what immediately jumps out is how aggressively this rally has pushed upward 🚀. We’ve seen price climb into a key external range high, taking out liquidity that was likely sitting just above those prior highs 💧.
This kind of move is often where institutional players step in to offload positions, as the liquidity makes it easier to find counterparts for previous accumulation phases 🏦. The way this price action is unfolding, I wouldn't be surprised to see a correction or retracement soon.
With the market this stretched, I’m not looking to get long here — especially not while BTC is trading at such a clear premium 🎯. No edge in chasing the highs.
Instead, I’ll be sitting back, waiting for a healthy pullback and a confirmed bullish structure shift before considering any entries 🔄📊. There’s no need to force trades in these conditions. Patience protects capital 🛡️.
⚠️ As always, this is not financial advice — just my current market perspective.
Can #BTC continue to rise?📊Can #BTC continue to rise?
🧠From a structural perspective, we started to rebound after being very close to the ideal target area of the bearish cup-handle structure, and broke through the downward trend line, which means that the correction phase is over.
➡️So next we need to pay attention to the long trading opportunities after the pullback. At present, this position belongs to the contradictory range. It can continue to rise, but it will be very uncomfortable if we chase the rise. So wait patiently for trading opportunities after the pullback. We can pay attention to the neckline support area (102000-103000).
➡️If there is no pullback, but it continues to rise, then the resistance near 106500 is also worth our attention. This is the support-resistance conversion area that has been tested many times.
🤜If you like my analysis, please like 💖 and share 💬
BITGET:BTCUSDT.P
SMALL RETEST on BTC and continuation of BTC TrendThe small range forming just under local resistance is weak and showing signs of exhaustion. Despite a possible red dot printing soon, volume is not confirming a strong bearish divergence, so don’t assume a major drop is guaranteed just yet.
The “Uneven Butcheeks” pattern visually highlights imbalance
A fakeout back into the range, or
A flush to grab liquidity sitting beneath key demand zones.
Key Scenarios
Scenario A (Orange Path)
A breakout through the overhead supply zone could trigger upside continuation toward $111,850.
But unless it’s backed by strong volume and broader BTC strength, I’ll be fading this move.
Right now, this doesn’t look like conviction from bulls — it looks like exhaustion.
Scenario B (Purple Path)
A rejection at current levels or a weak fakeout could break back into the demand zone.
With thin structure below and low buy-side aggression, price could sweep down toward $102.9k–$101.1k, or even lower.
If we get this move, I’ll be watching how buyers behave around the lower demand — that’s where bulls need to prove themselves.
⚠️ Strategy:
Don’t front-run this — let the price confirm or invalidate.
Watch volume. Watch BTC dominance.
Until then, this zone is chop-heavy, and patience = protection.
Wednesday, Trade of the day 📊 Wednesday Trading Update
Tuesday didn’t give us any tangible plays — price action was choppy, unconvincing, and mostly noise. But that’s behind us. Let’s see what Wednesday brings, especially with London and NY sessions ahead.
Midweek is notoriously volatile for BYC, and historically, Wednesday has often been the day that breaks the range or gives us a proper deviation setup — so eyes sharp today 👀.
My trades today will stick to standard range plays, nothing forced. We're still sitting above 4H supply, and unless we get a clean breakout with structure shift, I’ll remain cautious and reactive, not predictive.
Here’s what I’m watching today:
👉 Look for clear market structure shifts on the LTF (lower timeframes)
👉 Divergences can give early signs if you're using oscillators
If I get time, I might record a quick session later. No promises, but I’ll update if that changes.
🎥 If you're unsure what to look for, go back through the video archive — everything you need has already been broken down in detail.
📅 Weekly Schedule:
Wednesday – ❌ No class
Thursday – ❌ No class
Friday – ❌ No class
Let’s stay sharp — volatile Wednesdays tend to reward patience and precision.
BTC midterm plan possibility
The current Bitcoin chart shows a P.O.3 pattern formation. Looking at the price targets, we can see a clear path to $100,000, which stands as a major psychological price level. The ongoing A-B-C pattern structure supports this price movement. If Bitcoin successfully breaks through the $100k level, we could potentially see an extension to around $120,000. After January, there's a strong possibility of a bullish trend that could help reach these targets, though this remains speculative and uncertain. Market movements depend on various factors, so always do your own research before making any investment decisions.This is one of the scenarios.Other way is going beyond 85k strongly and make pull back or continuation pattern (sideways)after that reach 100k.
Bitcoin Reclaims Momentum: War Fears Fading, Bulls Eye $125K! MARKETSCOM:BITCOIN just delivered a powerful bounce right off the critical $100K level. A key psychological and technical support zone tested multiple times in recent sessions. This time, the bounce came with strong volume confirmation, signaling renewed buyer interest. As geopolitical tensions in the Middle East begin to ease, market confidence is returning, fueling bullish sentiment across the board.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC now looks poised to retest the $110K resistance zone, where some short-term rejection could occur. However, a decisive breakout above $110K opens the gates for a potential rally toward the next major target at $125K. Stay sharp, always manage your risk, and don’t forget to set a proper stop loss. The trend is strong, and momentum is building!
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