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USTBTC trade ideas

BITCOIN is the KING and upward movement is highly expected!Technical analysis and trade plan by Blaž Fabjan Support and Resistance Levels: Resistance Levels: 72,198.87 USDT 68,556.87 USDT 64,591.15 USDT Support Levels: 66,333.98 USDT 61,758.48 USDT 60,301.68 USDT 56,902.49 USDT The key levels indicate potential areas where price action could face resistance or find support, which might serve as entry or exit points. Indicators: Wave Cipher Divergences: Wave Cipher shows divergences suggesting a possible upward momentum. Positive divergences with green dots could imply bullish continuation. Relative Strength Index (RSI): RSI currently reads 55.19, indicating a neutral zone, leaning slightly bullish if it moves towards 60. This suggests Bitcoin isn't overbought or oversold and could continue a gradual trend. Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic shows a value around 70.52, close to the overbought region (above 80). If it breaks further upward, it may signal an overbought state, potentially leading to a correction. Hull Moving Average (HMA): HMA appears to trend slightly downwards, showing a bearish trend in the short term. The value of -6.58 indicates a bearish momentum, which may warn of a potential short-term pullback before any significant uptrend resumes. Price Action: The chart shows a potential breakout attempt around the 66,333.98 USDT level, where price action previously tested and retraced. A consolidation near this level could suggest that bulls are preparing for an upward push, especially if price breaks above 68,556.87 USDT. Volume Analysis: Volume shows a steady, moderate increase, supporting the upward trend. This moderate volume increase without large spikes could imply gradual accumulation rather than distribution. Trading Plan Long Position (Bullish Scenario) Entry: Consider entering a long position if the price breaks and holds above the 68,556.87 USDT resistance level with volume confirmation. Stop Loss: Set a stop loss slightly below the 66,333.98 USDT support level to mitigate risk in case of a false breakout. Targets: Target 1: 72,198.87 USDT — aligns with a strong resistance level and provides a conservative target. Target 2: 75,553.67 USDT — the next significant resistance level, offering a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. Short Position (Bearish Scenario) Entry: Consider shorting if the price fails to hold above 66,333.98 USDT and shows bearish confirmation, such as a breakdown with high volume. Stop Loss: Set a stop loss above 68,556.87 USDT to avoid risks from potential false breakdowns. Targets: Target 1: 61,758.48 USDT — a nearby support level that provides a logical take-profit point. Target 2: 60,301.68 USDT — serves as a secondary target if the bearish trend strengthens. Risk Management: Given the proximity to resistance and support levels, using a risk/reward ratio of 1:2 or higher is advisable to maintain favorable trade setups. Monitor Divergences: Keep an eye on divergences in the Wave Cipher, RSI, and Stochastic Oscillator for potential trend reversals or continuations. News and Market Sentiment: Be mindful of broader market sentiment and news events, as these can influence Bitcoin's price behavior, particularly near key levels. This trading plan provides a structured approach to capitalize on potential breakouts or breakdowns, balancing both bullish and bearish scenarios.
Long
by elfabiiani
1
100k after election or 6-12-months-Bart Simpson and Bull Flag. Our Current Situation Trading in a consolidating range can be really dangerous, especially if your emotions get the better of you (we have all been there). Hopefully, you have been careful with the risk. Trading a market in consolidation is rarely recommended; however, confidence in our trades should always be the most important factor before entering a position. So if you think it's right—go ahead. But the benefit of high probability is usually a strong challenge for most traders in a consolidating range, which is why it's not recommended by many traders. Continuing on the sub-topic of probabilities, I have learned from both failure and success that having patience is a necessity for good probability trades. This is why I want to zoom out to discuss my thoughts on how to trade the breakout from the current consolidation range. Before we delve into that, I will provide a broader view of the chart. Bull Market (GREEN ARROW) One could argue that we have been in a bull market since November 2022. We have experienced lower lows and higher highs. From October 2023 until March 2024, we’ve had a strong uptrend. However, from March 2024 until today (October 2024), we have been in a consolidating range. As a result, you might ask: Is this range going to break out as a Bart Simpson or bull flag pattern? Bart Simpson Scenario (Bear Target): The market structure in the Bart Simpson pattern is generally characterized by unpredictability and low-liquidity environments, which are often amplified by market manipulation. Unpredictability (Yes): The market sentiment on Twitter and mainstream news seems to be very bullish due to the halving event (which reduces supply and increases scarcity) and the fact that Trump is very pro-Bitcoin (wanting to incorporate BTC as a strategic national reserve)—he is currently leading in the presidential polls. Additionally, geopolitical tensions between nations (Israel and Iran, Russia and Ukraine) are creating discussions about a potential world war. Another topic is inflation. It seems that the market is unsure about which direction to take, confirming some unpredictability in the current range (March 2024 to October 2024). Low Liquidity and Market Manipulation (Yes): The Bart Simpson pattern thrives in low-liquidity environments, where prices can be more easily manipulated. Currently, factors like geopolitical tensions (Israel-Iran, Russia-Ukraine), inflation concerns, and uncertain macro conditions are deterring institutional investors, reducing overall market liquidity. With mostly retail participation and speculation surrounding the Bitcoin halving and Trump’s potential Bitcoin policies, the market is primed for sharp, unpredictable moves. In this environment, “whales” can manipulate prices more easily, prompting a potential sudden reversal. What if we end up creating the Bart Simpson? Price Target, $22,826: Look for shorts from major resistance all the way down to potentially the "Point of Control" (POC) for the current bull run. I will be watching for good swings. Does this mean that the bull market is over? I don’t think so. Touching the Point of Control (POC) is usually a healthy move before a trend continuation. Hence, the bull market will still be in play. The market sentiment may, however, be very dry, but when we get a sharp, strong swing up, FOMO will build, and this is when we will see the price skyrocket to over 100k. Bull Flag Pattern Scenario (Bull Target): A bull flag pattern is typically a continuation pattern in an uptrend. It begins with a strong upward movement (the flagpole), then consolidates or retraces slightly in a downward channel (the flag). After this period of consolidation, it often breaks out to the upside, continuing the trend. All the points above describe the current situation when looking at the chart. We have a pole and a downward channel that retraces slightly downward. There are billions of dollars of liquidity at the LH zones—the area of major resistance—which means we might hit it soon or use it as fuel after reaching the POC (Bart Simpson scenario). Price Target - 100k: If I were to trade the bull flag pattern, I would wait for the higher high (HH) to be broken. This way, I can hold until 100k, depending on how the market dynamics change. PS: Major support could be a good entry price if the dynamics in this hypothesis changes. In other words, the bart simpson pattern does not play out.
Long
by Mrketwizard
Eyes on BTC since Jan 2023 BTC has been up, It’s trading near all-time highs and not showing any weakness. I’m expecting seek-and-destroy (S&D) formation by market makers. Where buyers and sellers are taken out, you’ll notice millions being liquidated in the crypto world. This can occur after the US election. Once S&D is over makers will push prices accordingly. At the moment most BTC holders are in profit after engineering lows makers can buy it at a discount why I’m expecting S&D? when the price is near ATHs or ATLs and a big news event is nearby market makers tend to create an S&D situation where at some point normal retailers believe the price will continue further and at some point they will expect a reversal. In a way, retailers are taken out resulting in the market maker’s favor. So the last bearish leg can be their best buying opportunity if market makers want it to pump further
Long
by zanymmxm
Weekly BTC Update: Key Levels & Path to November ATHOn October 6th, I projected a higher low around 58k, setting up a rally to the 67-69k range, with a pullback to 64k before a move to new all-time highs (ATH) in November. The linked chart outlines this setup. For this scenario to play out, we may see one last dip into 64k—often on Tuesdays—before bulls push toward a strong monthly close. Levels to Watch This Week: 1. Key Monthly Close Level: 67,540, which needs to be held as support into monthly close for further upside. 2. 2024 Resistance Trendline: Currently moving down from 67,760 to 67,680. 3. Major Support: • 0.614 Fib: 64,312 • Upsloping Support Trendline: Spanning 63,700 to 64,600. A pullback isn’t certain, but these levels are crucial. Watch for bulls to hold these support points and build momentum toward an ATH in November. A breakdown of the 58k low would be very concerning and could invalidate this bullish outlook.
by Sellicks_forgotten_moustache
1
What Bitcoin's break of 74k means On the monthly and weekly timeframes, Bitcoin seems to be forming a continuation pattern which might push the price up to a new ATH (All Time High). While this is good news for Bitcoin Hodlers, I personally would only be looking for buy positions once the price breaks and stays above the 74k price line. The reasons for this decision is as follows: Bitcoin is currently at an interesting price zone as Bulls seem to be struggling to break and keep price above previous ATH's supply zone. I'm however only going to be convinced of continued bull run if price breaks and holds above 74k price line. if this happens, I'll be looking for buy positions on pull-backs. Price is forming what looks like a rising wedge on the daily timeframe. For those who might not be familiar with this pattern, it's a reversal pattern, meaning price is more probable to break and trade below the lower trendline whenever this pattern forms. Because this price level is at an interesting zone, it could be institutional traders and whales are secretly selling off their positions (price distribution) which might see us in the next phase of bear run. While this is mere speculation, it's good to be on the look at because anything can happen. Given the above reasons, I'm still very bullish on the price till I see a break below the Weekly HL (Higher Low) at 49k or a break below the Monthly Trendline. Note that I do not take positions based on what I anticipate price to do. I take positions when price does what I anticipate and presents my entry signal. Please let me know what you think about this. Would love to know your thoughts too about the short and long term price of Bitcoin.
Long
by youngbossy
Technical Analysis of Bitcoin Price --- ### **Technical Analysis of Bitcoin Price** #### **1. Trend Patterns and Market Structure** - **Market Structure**: Over the past month, Bitcoin has shown a gradual uptrend, with higher highs and higher lows indicating sustained bullish momentum. However, it is currently in a consolidation phase after testing higher levels, suggesting potential distribution. - **Trend Reversal Signals**: Keep an eye on any breaks below recent support levels, as this could signal the end of the uptrend. Likewise, a breakout above recent highs could confirm the continuation of the bullish trend. #### **2. Support and Resistance Levels** - **Key Resistance Levels**: - $67,000: Major resistance observed at the top of recent highs. - $70,000: Psychological level that could attract selling pressure. - **Key Support Levels**: - $66,000: Immediate support where price has bounced previously. - $63,500: Secondary support based on historical price action. These levels can serve as potential entry and exit points, depending on how price interacts with these areas. #### **3. Indicator-Based Analysis** - **RSI (Relative Strength Index)**: - Currently hovering around the 60–70 range, suggesting bullish momentum, but caution is warranted if RSI approaches overbought territory (above 70). - Look for any **RSI divergence** (e.g., price making higher highs while RSI makes lower highs), as this could signal a weakening of momentum and potential trend reversal. - **CCI (Commodity Channel Index)**: - With a value above +100, CCI suggests that Bitcoin is in an overbought condition. A drop below +100 could indicate a loss of bullish momentum and could be a sign of reversal. - A CCI below -100 could signal oversold conditions, which might provide buying opportunities on a reversal. - **MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)**: - The MACD line remains above the signal line, confirming bullish momentum. However, watch for a potential **bearish crossover**, which could indicate a weakening trend. - An increase in the MACD histogram could indicate growing momentum, while a decrease signals potential exhaustion. #### **4. Price Action Analysis Using Wyckoff Theory** - **Current Wyckoff Phase**: Based on recent price movements, Bitcoin may be in the **distribution phase** where large players are selling, and retail traders continue buying. This can lead to a consolidation zone followed by potential markdown if price breaks below key support. - **Patterns to Watch**: - **Spring**: A false breakout below support, followed by a quick reversal to the upside, can confirm strong buying pressure. - **Upthrust**: A breakout above resistance with a quick retraction could indicate a bull trap, suggesting a reversal might be imminent. - **Volume Analysis**: Increasing volume on down moves could signal distribution, while decreasing volume on up moves supports the idea of weakening bullish momentum. #### **5. Elliott Wave Analysis** - **Wave Count**: - The recent uptrend might be completing a 5-wave impulsive move, with the current consolidation potentially marking the start of an ABC corrective wave. - **Wave 1–5 (Impulsive)**: Look for a 5-wave pattern to complete, with Wave 5 likely being the last bullish leg. - **ABC Correction**: The ABC corrective wave could bring prices back to a support level (e.g., $63,500) before resuming the larger uptrend. - **Projection**: - If the 5th wave completes near resistance, expect a pullback (corrective ABC wave) toward the nearest support level as a part of the Elliott Wave corrective phase. #### **6. Volatility and Market Sentiment Analysis** - **Volatility (ATR)**: Monitor the Average True Range (ATR) to gauge volatility. An increase in ATR can indicate that a significant move is forthcoming. - **Market Sentiment**: External factors, including news or regulatory events, may impact volatility, which should be factored into your strategy. #### **7. Trading Strategy Recommendation** - **Entry Points**: - **Long Position**: Consider entering a long position if Bitcoin breaks above $67,000 with strong volume, confirming bullish continuation. - **Short Position**: Enter a short position if Bitcoin breaks below $66,000, with the next target being around $63,500, where support might trigger a reversal. - **Exit Points**: - Set take-profit levels near resistance at $67,000 and $70,000 for long positions, and around $63,500 for short positions. Use trailing stops to lock in profits if the trend continues. - **Risk Management**: - **Stop Loss**: Place stops slightly below $66,000 for long positions and slightly above $67,000 for short positions to protect against false breakouts. - **Position Sizing**: Adjust your position size based on ATR and individual risk tolerance, aiming to keep risk per trade under 2% of your portfolio. #### **8. Summary and Trade Plan** - **Bullish Scenario**: A breakout above $67,000 could lead to new highs, provided there’s sufficient volume and momentum. - **Bearish Scenario**: A breakdown below $66,000 with increasing selling pressure could lead to a retest of lower supports. - **Wyckoff and Elliott Implications**: If distribution is confirmed, and Elliott Wave suggests a completed 5th wave, prepare for an ABC corrective wave. This technical analysis combines multiple frameworks to provide a strategic overview, actionable insights, and trade management techniques for navigating Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency market effectively.
Short
by cryptoprofeta20
Positive Correlation between XAU and BTC on Daily Charts!This is not a suggestion or my trading plan! My Trading plan has been already shared with you all in this forum. In my experience we always need to marry fundamental forces with technical projections. We had a newsless week but ending Friday, we had Israel drones or airforce attack Iran? Did you see the pop in prices? From a forex market perspective we only have Crypto or more specifically BTC in operation. Look at its price action because it is positively correlated with Gold on a daily chart basis. BTC will follow the news so that is a good head start for the week ahead. I will post later on Sunday evening my thoughts! Please share yours as well!
by ccpudaism
Scalping BTC using simple S&R analysisThe price is likely to break the resistance at the 67,234 level and retest this area as support. This outlook is supported by the price holding within the range level (marked by the white line) and the presence of strong support at 66,770, which aligns with a previous resistance level, creating a confluence. However, there is still a possibility that the price could be rejected at the resistance. In that case, the price may retest the support or even break below it. Based on current market conditions, the likelihood of this scenario is approximately 30%. I will place a stop-limit buy order at 67235 and stop-loss at 66770. Profit ratio at 1:3.
Long
by DexterMGarcia
SasanSeifi| Can We Expect Short-Term Corrections?Hey there, ✌ In the short-term timeframe, we've observed that Bitcoin has surged from the $60,000 range to a high of $69,000. However, following this peak, the price has shown a negative reaction, undergoing a minor correction down to the $67,000 levels after a brief period of fluctuations. Currently, the price has remained in a range after encountering the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at the $67,000 mark. The significant resistance level ahead in the 4-hour timeframe lies between $67,750 and $68,500. Analysing the chart in the lower timeframes, it appears that the price may be inclined to experience further corrections. If a candle closes below the $66,950 to $66,850 levels, we might witness a price correction down to the demand levels at $65,500, and potentially further to $64,250 to $63,000. Understanding how the price reacts to these levels will be crucial for assessing the ongoing trend. Additionally, if the price faces increased demand and breaks above the established resistance levels, the corrective scenario could be reconsidered. The potential trend is clearly outlined in the chart above. 💢 This is just my personal analysis, not financial advice. If you found this helpful, feel free to like and comment – I'd love to hear your thoughts! Happy trading! ✌😊
Short
by SasanSeifi