DOW JONES Can the 1W MA50 hold and spark an end-of-year rally?Dow Jones (DJIA) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the late July 2023 High. The decline of the last 30 days can be technically seen as the Bearish Leg that will price its new Higher Low bottom.
The price isn't only close to the Channel's bottom but also the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), a level that has been supporting since the October 30 2023 bullish break-out. As a result, a 1W MA50 hit will be a potential double support test, with the 1W RSI also printing a Bearish Leg similar to the one that led to the October 2023 bottom.
On the other hand, the ranged price action since the late November 2024 High, resembles the sideways volatility of the first half of 2024. Both were initiated after Higher High pricings at the top of the Channel Up. The rallies that led to those tops have been +21.00% and +23.72% respectively.
If there is a decreasing rate on each Bullish Leg, then the new one should be +17.30% (i.e. -3.30% less than the previous one), which falls marginally below the 1.5 Fibonacci extension, which is where the November 2024 High was priced.
As a result, as long as Dow is closing its 1W candles above the 1W MA50, the 2-year Channel Up is more likely to push upwards again for its new Bullish Leg, potentially targeting 48900 (+17.30%).
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