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US30 Trade Scenario's and Analysis (14.01.2024)CORE PPI m/m (FORECAST 0.2%) & PPI m/m (FORECAST 0.4%) 15:30 ⦁ Higher then expected signals inflation pressure. (Bearish) ⦁ Lower then expected signals a ease in inflation.(Bullish) Lower readings reduces inflation pressure on the economy, Which generally means BULLISH, however as i explained about INITIAL MARKET MOVERS can have a volatile effect to find a clear Trend to the Market before Reacting to the Data Readings. BULLISH SCENARIO. A Pullback with a Rejection around 42150- 42055 can confirm the Bullish. After a clear retest around those Zones Take entries with a SL at 42000. EXECUTING TRADES. A Strong bounce at 42055 and holding strongly above with no break below. Take BUY entries once the Confirmation Candle enter the Zones between 42125 - 42150 With a SL at 42055. A Continuous Push above 42250 - 42375 and holding above it can simply just continue Bullish, Automatically turning the resistance to support. Which will then be the POI for another BUY Entry. IF it breaks above those Zones and trades above 42250 with no breaks below. Take entries once the confirmation Candle enter 42325 - 42350 With a SL at 42250. BEARISH SCENARIO. A Strong break through 42055 and trading below with rejections. Can continue Bearish to Either test Support at 41775 or continue to the Weekly support at 41435 EXECUTING TRADES. Take SELL entries once Rejection Candle enters 42000 - 41975 With a SL at 42055. A break below 41775 - 41700 will then also be a POI for another Sell entry. I Will monitor price action if it does reach those levels. FOR NOW FOCUS ON THE REJECTION FOR BUY ENTRIES AS THERE WAS ALREADY A BREAK THROUGH THE TRENDLINE LAST NIGHT. AS LONG AS IT TRADES ABOVE THE TRENDLINE AND HOLDS ABOVE 42055. ONLY IF PRICE BREAKS BELOW THAT TRENDLINE AGAIN AND HOLDS BELOW 42055 I WILL LOOK AT FOR SELL ENTRIES.
ICMARKETS:US30Long
by THE_US30FX
1
Reality Check!Long gone are economic data which should be bullish for stock markets and instead have become bearish, yesterday's jobs number was too strong, lesser chance of rate cuts this year...it's all about the debt and managing this enormous pile of borrowing binge...the reality check is approaching fast. The Fed has of course trapped itself, buying of all securities for many years to suppress interest rates artificially....keeping the party and economic spending swinging far too long. Their unwinding of assets is increasing, causing long term rates to rise...no meaningful cuts will eventuate until markets crash or collapse...economic chaos. Friday saw the selloff that was coming, confidence is high that 40K will be the next target...we sell the rallies. What took months to rally, can be taken out in a few weeks...there is no bait to buy this market...hold short. We are likely in the early throes of a wave 3 down, serious selling will come...late bulls will attempt to slow the decline and believe in a bargain. Gold is extremely close to confirming a solid buy signal confirmation, if gold can rise and close higher on Monday, that is your green light for a strong move upwards in the early stages. Whatever reasoning you read or hear about gold rise, ignore it and just buy the precious metals, silver is grossly undervalued. Debt is the calamity that implodes gold into the sky...Bitcoin's bull run looks tired for now, a rotation back into PM's. Summing up: hold short the Dow, buy gold! Appreciate a thumbs, good trading and God Bless you all!
BLACKBULL:US30Short
by Fractal777
3
US30 I Bullish continuation but opportunity for pullbackWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** US30 Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by BKTradingAcademy
Dow Jones Likely Trending Up in the Next Four YearsCBOT: Micro E-Mini Dow Jones Futures ( CBOT_MINI:MYM1! ) #Microfutures The United States will enter a new presidency on Monday, January 20th. Will the stock market continue its upward trend under the 47th U.S. President? Before we set our sight on the future, it’s prudent to look back in history first. While it is not a guarantee for future performance, history does provide good intelligence. To find clues for our answer, I conducted an analysis on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). How the Dow Performed Under Different Presidencies My research setup is as follow: • I look at DJIA daily close prices for the past 50 years (from Aug. 1974 to Jan. 2025). This period covers 9 presidents and 13 four-year presidential terms. • For all the presidents, I use their Inauguration Day January 20th as the start day, while setting the end day for January 19th four years later. I compare the changes in DJIA closing prices from start to finish for each 4-year term. • The exceptions: Gerald Ford, who started his term on August 9, 1974, after Richard Nixon resigned; and Joe Biden, for whom I use the latest trade day January 15th. Here is what I found: • Gerald Ford (Aug. ‘74 – Jan. ’77): DJIA went up 181.7 points (+23.4%) • Jimmy Carter (Jan. ’77 – Jan. ’81), down 8.4 points (-0.9%) • Ronald Reagon (Jan. ’81 – Jan. ’89), up 1,288.1 points (+135.5%). The data can be further broken down to +68.6% in his 1st term and +45.7% in the 2nd term • George H.W. Bush (Jan. ’89 – Jan. ’93), up 1,020.6 points (+45.7%) • Bill Clinton (Jan. ’93 – Jan. ’01), up 7,345.6 points (+226.6%), including +110.8% in the 1st four years and +54.7% in the 2nd four years • George W. Bush (Jan. ’01 – Jan. ’09), down 2,306.4 points (-21.8%), for which -0.4% and -20.9% for his 1st and 2nd terms, respectively • Barack Obama (Jan. ’09 – Jan. ’17), up 11,783.3 points (+148.2%), including +71.7% in the 1st term and +44.6% in the 2nd term • Donald Trump (Jan. ’17 – Jan. ’21), up 11,060.2 points (+55.8%) • Joe Biden (Jan. ’21 – Jan. ’21), up 12,202.8 points (+39.5%) Dow Jones advanced the most points under current administration (+12,203 points), with Obama coming in 2nd for 11,783 points. The DJIA index gained the most in percentage terms under the Clinton administration (+226%). Across all nine presidents, DJIA was lower for one, flat for another, but moved up 7 out of 9 times. If you look deeper into the worst-performing years under George W. Bush, you will find that 9/11 terrorist attack happened in his first term and the 2008 financial crisis occurred in his second term. Both can be considered extreme events and outliners in the dataset. Regardless which political party commands the White House, the Dow is more likely to move up than down. From the first day Gerald took office to the last week of the Biden administration, DJIA went from 777 to 43,133, a huge gain of 5,449%! Trading with Micro E-Mini Dow Jones Futures The above analysis gives us comfort in the upward mobility of the US stock market. Further analysis of the DJIA shows strength in its Top 5 component companies. • As of January 15th, DJIA went up 15.5% in the past 12 months • Gold Sachs, which holds an 8.2% share by index weight, was up 57.5% in a year • 1-year returns for the other top components are: United Health (+4.2%), Microsoft (+9.0%), Home Depot (+12.2%), and Caterpillar (+31.5%) An investor may simply deploy the time-honored “Buy and Hold” strategy. The longer the holding period, the better the returns, barring extreme circumstances. Given that the DJIA is trending up over the long run, active traders may consider using stock index futures to enhance their investment returns. Micro E-Mini Dow Jones futures (MYM) offer smaller-sized versions of CME Group’s benchmark Dow Jones futures (YM) contracts. Micro futures have a contract size of 0.5 times the DJIA index, which is 1/10th of the standard contract. CME data shows that the E-Mini and Micro Dow Jones futures have a combined open interest of 103,077 contract as of this Monday. According to the CFTC Commitment of Traders report, as of January 7, 2025, Leverage Funds hold 17,504 long positions and 11,695 short positions. With DJIA nearing its all-time high, “Small Money” is still bullish. Longs outweigh shorts by a 3:2 ratio. Buying or selling one MYM contract requires an initial margin of $1,077. With Wednesday midday quote of 43,376, each March contract (MYMH5) has a notional value of $21,688. Compared with investing in stocks, the futures contracts offer a built-in leverage of about 20 times (=21688/1077). Hypothetically, if Dow futures price moves up 10% to 47,714 in 2025, the index gain of 4,338 points will translate into $2,169 for a long position, given each index point equal to $0.50 for the Micro contract. Using the initial margin of $1,077 as a cost base, the trade would produce a theoretical return of 201.4% (=2169/1077). Futures contracts have expiration days, and you may not hold them forever like stocks. To stay Long in the DJIA, a trader may consider a futures rollover strategy. An illustration: • A trader would buy the lead contract March now, and hold it till the end of February • He would then sell March and buy June, which will become the next lead contract • He would repeat this process: buy September and sell June at the end of May • Repeat this again to buy December and sell September at the end of August This series of trades allows a trader to establish a long position in the DJIA throughout the year, while holding the most liquid contracts. There is no guarantee that each trade will yield positive returns. But if the Dow is trending up over time, the winning would likely outpace the loses. The leverage feature in futures works both ways. It would magnify the losses as well as improving the winnings. The good news is, a trader could put stop-loss on his futures trades, limiting the downside risks. For example, our trader may set stop-loss at 42,000 when he buys the MYM at 43,376. If the Dow falls to 40,000, his position will be liquidated well before that when the price hits 42,000. The maximum loss incurred will be $688 (= (43376 - 42000) * 0.5). The combination of Futures Rollover with Stop-loss could yield higher returns (thanks to the leverage) while maintaining a limited loss exposure. If the index bounces up and down but trends up in the long stretch, the trader will see both wins and losses. Since the wins are unbounded but the losses are contained, the overall returns would likely be positive. The risk to long Micro Dow is that the US stock market enters a bear market, and DJIA trends down over a long period of time. The trader could incur a series of limited losses, and the gains were not sufficient to cover those losses. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DJ:DJILong
by JimHuangChicago
8
DOW JONES Falling Wedge to break upwards soon.Dow Jones is trading inside a Falling Wedge. Right now it is on the MA50 (4h) after rising on a bullish wave to the pattern's top. The pattern is very close to be completed and Falling Wedges tend to break to the upside once completed. Trading Plan: 1. Buy on the next pull back. Targets: 1. 43500 (under the 2.0 Fibonacci extension). Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) is on higher lows, i.e. a bullish extension since December 18th. Sign that a bullish break out is ahead. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by TradingBrokersView
Down Jones Wave Analysis 14 January 2025 - Down Jones reversed from support level 42000.00 - Likely to rise to resistance level 43000.00 Down Jones index recently reversed up with the daily Piercing Line reversal pattern from the pivotal support level 42000.00, which has been reversing the price from September. The support level 42000.00 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from August. Given the strength of the support level 42000.00 and the improvement in investor sentiment as seen across the global equity markets, Down Jones index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 43000.00.
DJ:DJILong
by FxProGlobal
US30 - 15 min ( Best Buy & Sell Scalping After Break Out ) Analysis of Key Levels in US30 on the 15-Minute Time Frame The evaluation of financial markets, particularly the US30 index, necessitates a meticulous examination of key levels that influence market movements. A recent analysis identified pivotal breakout points on the 15-minute time frame, which could serve as essential indicators for traders looking to capitalize on potential price movements. The bullish scenario has been established following a breakout at the key level of 42540 points, accompanied by high trading volume. Such a surge suggests a robust buying sentiment among market participants, indicating the potential for upward continuation. The presence of significant volume at this breakout point reinforces the likelihood of a sustained bullish trend, emphasizing the importance of monitoring price action closely during subsequent trading sessions. Conversely, a bearish outlook has emerged from a breakout at the key level of 42320 points, also characterized by high volume. This breakdown signals a shift in market sentiment towards selling, presenting potential opportunities for traders who prefer to capitalize on downward movements. The implications of this bearish breakout are critical, as they may foreshadow further declines in the US30 index, prompting a reassessment of existing trading strategies. In conclusion, the US30 index presents clear breakout levels that traders should closely monitor: the bullish breakout at 42540 points and the bearish breakout at 42320 points, both coupled with high trading volume. This analysis underscores the necessity of precision and caution in trading decisions, focusing on accurate opportunities rather than merely numerical data. By adhering to these key levels, traders can better align themselves with market dynamics, enhancing their potential for success. ⚡️US30 / FXCM Best Break Our / Key level's 15m Tf 🚨 Bullish After Break Out key level + High Volume / 42540 Point 🚨 Bearish After Break Out key level + High Volume / 42320 Point ⚡️ We Only Sent Most Accurate Opportunity and Analysis 💲 Not by Number ..+
FX:US30
by GentleGoldenEngine