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#202427 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Day and I hope you are well. dax cfd Quote from last week: comment: Sell vacuum theory was spot on. Bears printed 2 big good looking bars right to huge support and got no follow through. Bulls used it to trade back at least to the daily ema and 2/3 of the move. Huge price level around 18400/18450 with the ema. Bulls want above to test upper expanding triangle around 18600 and bears want a bigger second leg down to 17600. Both completely valid arguments and I will wait for a clear breakout before following. comment: Market was completely neutral past week. Let’s look at the weekly chart and what it tells us. 5 Week selloff and now 2 bull weeks and past week was as neutral as it gets. Tells us that the market is in balance and does not know where it will go next. We can draw multiple bad bear trend lines and all are valid until broken. Does not help with trading at this price. Since we have a decent bull support line from the April and June low, we know that the market is in a triangle and the middle is most likely around 18300. As long as market is coming back to that price, you buy low and sell high. Since market is also staying above the weekly 20ema, bears are not favored to suddenly break below it. It’s also trading below the daily 20ema and did not have a daily close above it for 12 trading days. It’s a trading range near the ath, where the market is compressing and will soon see a breakout. current market cycle: trading range - go look at the monthly chart. It’s a clear 4 month trading range. —unchanged key levels: small range 17600 / 18500 bull case: Bulls want to break above 18500 to retest the other bear trend lines above. Invalidation is below 18200. bear case: Until bears can print consecutive bear bars below 18000, this market is still in BTFD mode and won’t go down further. Invalidation is a 1h close above 18550. outlook last week: “ short term: Neutral again. Need to see a clear winner here at the daily 20ema for the next direction.“ → Last Sunday we traded 18367 and now we are at 18417. High of the week was 18542 and the low was 18221 so my outlook was spot on. short term: Can’t be anything but neutral again. Bears managed to stay below the daily 20ema but bulls bought the weekly 20ema. Trading range price action. Will get a breakout soon. medium-long term: 17000 over the next 3-6 Months and when we get there, I update again. —unchanged current swing trade: No big move caught. Will look for follow through selling on Monday and would swing a position then. Chart update: Adjusted bear wave series to match the current sideways movement.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
5
Overlap resistance ahead?DE40 is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse to the 1st support. Pivot: 18,336.71 1st Support: 18,124.88 1st Resistance: 18,491.39 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
DShort
by ICmarkets
2024-06-27 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Indexes - Bit Groundhogs Day much. Another small green day for the bulls and again, all markets stayed inside their ranges. Triangles live on. Atrocious to trade if you don’t like to scale in with wide stops. Markets are clearly in breakout mode and tomorrow could be the day imo. My base assumption for sp500 and nq is another test of the ath before a much deeper pullback. Commodities Gold and Oil had a 1% up day but are still inside their given trading ranges. Oil made a perfect retest of the tight bull channel and 82 could still be bigger resistance. Bulls need a strong break above to convince me to buy it. If you look at a 1h tf, it’s a big trading range with lot’s of bigger bars with prominent tails. Not easy to trade. Gold produced a big bounce that will probably get a second leg up. Bulls defended 2300, which was important. Daily ema is right above at 2340. If bulls trade above it, 2360 would be my next target. dax comment: Barbwire (tails above and below bars and mostly doji’s) - horrible to trade. Market still not above the daily ema and a small inside bar on the daily, compared to previous days. High chance tomorrow will see a breakout above 18500 or below 18200. Middle of this range 18381 is still the most important price on the chart currently. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18200 - 18550 bull case: Bulls making higher lows but not higher highs. Market is in breakout mode. Wait for a breakout - retest and then a good signal in the direction before you enter. Many Good signals at the extremes turn out to be traps in trading ranges. Invalidation is below 18200. bear case: Bears getting weaker because they can not make lower lows. Will found out tomorrow if they want to trap eager bulls above 18500. No deeper analysis currently. Just patience needed. Invalidation is above 18550. short term: As neutral as it gets. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buy low, sell high and scalp. Use small position size and wide stops to scale in. —unchanged.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
DAX DE40/DE30 LONG - DAX Long - Pump for the End of the Monthly.Hi all. I longed DAX today, based on beautiful correction to 18120 area and an accumulation today on European session . Lower timeframes M1 and M5 printed a ' Perfect entry ' signal for me with change of character and break of structure . Together with the sentiment changing on American indices, I longed DAX on New York session open today around 18120 price. I am planning to hold this trade till 18570-18580 area, and leave a small runner with potential to come back to ATH area. Stop loss on chart, but you can see the levels of potential support if we enouncter any sort of strong rejection. Potential TP areas: - 18230 - 18310 - And finally 18580. Good luck and play safe!
CAPITALCOM:DE40Long
by AdiVV
DAX Medium-term buy opportunity.Last time we looked at DAX (FDAX1!) it gave us another successful sell signal (May 17) at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 9-month Channel Up: This time it is issuing a medium-term buy signal as after reaching the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the 6-month Channel Up, while hitting and holding the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) as Support, it is sustaining an upward consolidation. The last Higher Lows was also priced after the price broke below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and supported by the 1D MA100 and the only confirmation left to form an identical pattern with that is for the 1D RSI to complete a Bullish Cross. As you can see, that has historically been a very reliable buy signal. Our Target is 19300, which is marginally lower than the previous +8.80% Bullish Leg, but almost exactly on the Internal Higher Highs trend-line. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:DE40Long
by TradingShot
2024-06-25 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Indexes - Pullbacks as expected. Markets are looking for the fair price and that’s why we get big down, big up. Slightly favoring the bulls to continue higher but just slightly. I wait for a breakout tomorrow. Bitcoin had a bullish day but look at the daily chart. It’s a small bull inside bar. Bulls fighting for their life’s to stay above 60000. I expect bears to try again for 60k this week. It was also a perfect retest of the broken lower bear trend line around 62000. Commodities pulled back again. Gold at the lows of this trading range and bears would need much bigger selling pressure to break it. Oil broke out of the bull channel and that is not good for the bulls. They now need to hold it above 80 or we will trade back down to 77.5ish. dax comment: Another day another doji after the US session. EU session closed 10 points below where it opened. Market also formed a perfect wedge and I expect this to break down to 18300 again. 18300 is currently my most important price for the dax and if bulls fail to defend, it’s night night for them. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18000 - 18600 bull case: Bulls prevented a flush below 18200 today but the buying was weak at best. They need stronger bull bars and trade back above 18440. I don’t have many arguments for them tbh, because all time frames look pretty bearish or at least neutral (daily tf). Above 18450, we will see 18500+ again. Invalidation is below 18250. bear case: Bears sold off very strongly before the EU open and market struggled to get back up again. On the daily it’s a decent head & shoulders pattern, which would bring us right back to 17963 to the freaking tick. So the odds heavily favor the bears if the wedge breaks below 18350. Invalidation is above 18440. short term: Neutral between 18350-18450. Bearish below, bullish above medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Shorting bar 24 one tick below bar 23. That was a perfect retest of the bull channel we broke out of yesterday and market then sold off for 183 points.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
GER40: The structure pull-back strategy in actionGER40: The structure pull-back strategy in action From our previous analysis the price tested the broken structure near 18370 as expected by offering in this way a selling opportunity. The structure pull-back strategy is used after a broken structure. It allows you to join the market at a specific moment following the breakout direction. 📺You may watch the video for further details📺 Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️ Previous analysis:
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Short
by KlejdiCuni
2
GER40 may test 18300 before moving lower againGER40 may test 18300 before moving lower again From our previous analysis, GER40 decreased after a larger transformation than expected. These days it is possible that GER40 may rise up to the structure area located near18300 before resuming the decline again. This is what GER40 is showing with the current data. The first and strongest support/target area is found near 18K. 📺You may watch the video for further details📺 Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Short
by KlejdiCuni
22
2024-06-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Indexes - No good news for the stock indexes. Dax and DJI closed green but dax ended US session still below the daily ema. Dow was rejected at the 40k mark, which was to be expected. Bulls will probably try that again tomorrow. SP500 and Nasdaq pulled back some more and bears finally closed a bear bar at the lows. In the overall scheme of things it’s just a minor pullback from a climactic blow off top. I have zero confidence in the bears that they can prevent the bulls from retesting the highs soon. Commodities were also uneventful. Oil bulls still doing their thing and keeping it in the bull channel, as I foretold in my weekly post. Gold printed a bull doji which keeps the market above the small bull support line on the daily chart but below the daily ema. More sideways price action expected for Gold. Will do a Bitcoin update tomorrow morning. Want to see if they sell it again hard in the Asia session. dax comment: Bulls tried and failed at 18500 and US session closed below 18400. Not looking good for the bulls currently. Doji on the daily, so I expect more sideways price action tomorrow. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18000 - 18600 bull case: Bulls traded above 18500 and the EU session closed above it. The US session pulled it back below 18400, so it’s fair to say that we will see more choppy price action tomorrow. Bulls are still favored to retest above 18500 tomorrow, where their fate will be decided. If they fail again, we will go back to 18000 and if they break above, 18600 comes fast. The bull channel is still valid but Globex could trade sideways out of it. Invalidation is below 18300. bear case: Bears kept the market around last weeks close in the US session and they want to test back down to 18300. I have no opinion if we see 18300 or 18500 first tomorrow but I do think we will hit both. 18300 is also a 50% pullback from this recent rally. Invalidation is above 18540. short term: Neutral between 18380-18450. Bearish below, bullish above medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Globex was bullish since bar 4 and saw an acceleration on bar 22+23. 23 was your entry bar for longs. If you weren’t, bar 29 with the open was strong enough so buy one tick on the follow through bar 30. Bar 67 was a huge bear surprise. Was 66 a reasonable short entry? You can but you would have shorted in a bull trend right at the 1h 20ema. You can take it since bar 66 was a decent signal bar but certainly not a trade of the day.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
Weekly technical analysisStart your week by identifying the key price levels and trends. The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex. *KEY Trend direction is set by the slope of the VWAP Trend phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Analysis Germany 40 remains inside a tight sideways consolidation of its broader bullish trend, with the price increasing to 18,256, now below the VWAP of 18,342. Support and resistance levels have adjusted to 17,901 and 18,783, respectively. The RSI has increased to 46, indicating a moderation in upside momentum compared to the previous report. UK 100 remains in the consolidation phase of a bullish trend, with the price increasing towards the June lows, and still below the VWAP of 8,275. Support has adjusted to 8,117, while resistance has increased to 8,280. The RSI has increased to 54, reflecting a strengthening in momentum compared to the previous report. Wall Street has made significant upside progress in the past 3 months - moving into a bullish consolidation phase, with the price recently increasing to 39,247, now above the VWAP of 38,755. Support and resistance levels have adjusted to 38,340 and 39,170, respectively. The RSI has increased to 60, signalling a rise in bullish momentum compared to the previous report. Brent Crude has transitioned into a bullish trend and continues in a corrective phase, with the price increasing to 84.62, now above the VWAP of 81.79. Support has adjusted lower to 76.84, while resistance has increased to 84.62. The RSI has increased to 60, indicating a strengthening of bullish momentum compared to the previous report. Gold remains in a bullish trend trading sideways in a neutral consolidation since topping in mid-April, with the price recently increasing to 2,330, now around the previous VWAP of 2,329. Support has adjusted higher to 2,284, while resistance has decreased to 2,369. The RSI has increased to 49, indicating a moderation of bearish momentum compared to the previous report. EUR/USD remains broadly trendless with the price more recently increasing to 1.0716, now below the VWAP of 1.0773 - and indicating a possible new phase of weakness. Support has adjusted lower to 1.0630, while resistance has increased to 1.0916. The RSI has increased to 42, indicating a reduction in bearish pressure compared to the previous report. GBP/USD remains in a neutral trend in a consolidation phase, with the price slightly increasing to 1.2662, now around the VWAP of 1.2722. Support has adjusted higher to 1.2621, and resistance has decreased to 1.2824. The RSI has increased to 44, indicating a moderation of bearish sentiment compared to the previous report. USD/JPY remains in a bullish trend - having overcome the late April peak - and has just re-entered an impulsive phase, with the price increasing slightly to 159.74, now above the previous VWAP of 157.33. Support has adjusted higher to 154.68, while resistance has increased to 159.80. The RSI has increased to 72, reflecting a strong increase in bullish momentum compared to the previous report.
SPREADEX:GDAXI
by Spreadex
How Prospect Theory and the Disposition Effect Influence Prices█ Prospect theory, the disposition effect, and asset prices In the research paper "Prospect Theory, the Disposition Effect, and Asset Prices," authors Yan Li and Liyan Yang delve into the implications of prospect theory on asset pricing and trading volume through the lens of the disposition effect. The disposition effect, a tendency to sell assets that have increased in value while holding onto assets that have declined, is a well-documented behavioral bias among investors. Results: The study finds that diminishing sensitivity predicts a disposition effect, price momentum, reduced return volatility, and a positive return-volume correlation. Conversely, loss aversion generally predicts opposite outcomes. █ Background and Theory ⚪ Agency theory examines the relationship between principals (owners) and agents (managers), focusing on aligning their interests through contracts and incentives. ⚪ Prospect theory , introduced by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), is a behavioral model that describes how people make decisions involving risk and uncertainty. Unlike traditional utility theory, prospect theory suggests that people value gains and losses differently, leading to risk-averse behavior for gains and risk-seeking behavior for losses. Explanation of Risk Aversion and Loss Aversion Risk aversion is the tendency to prefer certainty over a gamble with a higher or equal expected value. In contrast, loss aversion implies that losses loom larger than gains, making individuals more sensitive to potential losses than to equivalent gains. This phenomenon is captured by the S-shaped value function in prospect theory, which is concave for gains and convex for losses. █ Methodology The research uses a comprehensive model to understand how psychological factors like fear of losses and changing sensitivity to gains and losses affect trading and market behavior. This model looks at both diminishing sensitivity (caring less about bigger changes) and loss aversion (fear of losing money) together. The study's data comes from traders and managers at four big investment banks, including people with different levels of experience and jobs. This gives a broad view of how trading behavior works at these banks. █ Findings Disposition Effect What's Happening: Investors tend to sell stocks that have gone up in value and hold onto stocks that have gone down. Why: Because they are highly sensitive to gains but less sensitive to losses. Evidence: The study shows that people are about 15% more likely to sell stocks that have gone up than those that have gone down. Price Momentum What's Happening: Because of the disposition effect, stock prices keep moving in the same direction for a while before correcting. Why: Investors sell winning stocks quickly and hold onto losing ones, so prices don’t adjust immediately to new information. Evidence: Stocks that performed well continue to do better than those that performed poorly, by about 1% per month over six months to a year. Higher Equity Premium What's Happening: Investors demand higher returns for holding riskier stocks due to fear of losses. Why: Loss aversion makes them want more return to compensate for the risk. Evidence: Historically, stocks have returned about 6% more per year than risk-free assets, which is known as the equity premium puzzle. █ Practical Implications for Retail Traders Retail traders can derive several practical applications from these findings to improve their trading strategies: Risk Management: Understanding that loss aversion may lead to holding losing stocks longer, traders should implement strict stop-loss policies to mitigate this bias. Profit-Taking Strategies: Recognizing the reversed disposition effect, traders should establish clear profit-taking rules to avoid prematurely selling winning stocks. Market Volatility Awareness: Being aware that market volatility can exacerbate loss aversion effects, traders should seek higher returns to compensate for perceived risks. █ Applying Knowledge from the Study Retail traders can apply the knowledge from this study in several effective ways: Implementing Stop-Loss Orders: Setting automatic stop-loss orders helps circumvent the emotional impact of loss aversion, ensuring losses are capped at predetermined levels. Regular Review of Holdings: Periodic reassessment of stock holdings can help overcome the inertia caused by loss aversion, enabling more rational decision-making. Diversification: Diversifying the portfolio can mitigate the impact of loss aversion on individual stock performance, reducing overall portfolio risk. Education on Cognitive Biases: Educating themselves about cognitive biases like loss aversion and the disposition effect can help traders recognize and counteract these biases in their trading behavior. █ Reference Li, Y., & Yang, L. (2013). Prospect theory, the disposition effect, and asset prices. Journal of Financial Economics, 107(3), 715-739. doi:10.1016/j.jfineco.2012.11.002 ----------------- Disclaimer This is an educational study for entertainment purposes only. The information in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on evaluating their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs. My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
OANDA:DE30EUREducation
by Zeiierman