GER40FT trade ideas
2024-06-03 - a daily price action after hour update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Indexes could not stay at the highs and bears showed some strength by closing the gaps we left behind on Friday. SP500 and nasdaq rallied into the close on weak volume but bulls nevertheless also showed strength and for the day we mostly moved sideways. Both sides have reasonable buying/selling pressure and arguments on their side. That’s why we can expect more sideways price action.
dax
comment: Big Globex gap up, big down, big up, big down and then dax did not rally as hard as sp500 and nasdaq did. Market was formed a triangle on the 1h tf and we have tested Friday’s breakout price 18590. Since we are at the lower third of the range and it’s clearly trading range price action, r:r is on the bull side for at least 18700 again. So either the triangle plays out and we move more sideways or we break above for 18800 or higher.
current market cycle: Trading range
key levels: 18400 - 18750
bull case: Bulls see the low today as a retest and market is now free to pump again. The gap to 18655 closing price will probably be closed overnight and then bulls will probably retest 18700 or higher next.
Invalidation is below 18470.
bear case: Bears surprised the bulls with 2 strong legs down today. The breakout above 18720 looked decent and trapped many bulls buying high in a trading range. Bears could not touch last week’s closing price 18531, which is a sign of weakness. They closed below the daily and the 1h ema, which strengthens their case but given that it’s a clear trading range, not many bears want to sell below 18600.
Invalidation is above 18750.
short term: Up for 18700 and maybe higher. Play the range until clear breakout
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Selling the double top bar 28 + 54 one tick below bar 54. Was good for 160 points. My room caught a 100+ banger to the downside.
DAX to find support at market price?GER40 - 24h expiry
The primary trend remains bullish.
Price action continues to trade around significant highs.
Prices have reacted from 18381.
Previous support located at 18550.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
Our outlook is bullish.
We look to Buy at 18520 (stop at 18420)
Our profit targets will be 18770 and 18850
Resistance: 18670 / 18750 / 18800
Support: 18600 / 18550 / 18500
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Weekly Technical AnalysisStart your week by identifying the key price levels and trends.
The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex.
*KEY
Trend direction is set by the slope of the VWAP
Trend phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level
Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively.
Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold).
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Analysis
Germany 40 remains in a bullish trend and has been correcting through time rather than price, with the price decreasing slightly to 18,655, now around the VWAP of 18,656. Support and resistance levels have adjusted to 18,443 and 18,890, respectively. The RSI has decreased to 55, indicating a further moderation in sentiment compared to the previous report. A potential recession in Germany has influenced market sentiment.
UK 100 remains in a bullish trend but has transitioned into a corrective phase, with the price increasing slightly to 8,343, now around the VWAP of 8,342. Support has adjusted to 8,174, while resistance has increased to 8,500. The RSI has increased slightly to 55, reflecting a slight improvement in sentiment compared to the previous report. Recent political stability in the UK has positively impacted the market.
Wall Street seems to have settled into a sideways/neutral trend, with the price decreasing notably before rebounding to 38,788, below the previous VWAP of 39,247. Support and resistance levels have adjusted to 38,058 and 40,435, respectively. The RSI has decreased slightly to 46, signalling a reduction in bullish momentum compared to the previous report. Concerns over U.S. debt ceiling negotiations have weighed on the market.
Brent Crude remains in a bearish trend and continues in an impulsive phase, with the price decreasing to 80.86, now below the previous VWAP of 82.47. Support has adjusted lower to 80.44, while resistance has increased to 84.50. The RSI has decreased to 37, indicating a strengthening of bearish sentiment compared to the previous report. OPEC's decision to maintain current production levels has affected prices.
Gold has shifted to a neutral trend and is in a consolidation phase, with the price decreasing to 2,320, now below the previous VWAP of 2,364. Support has adjusted higher to 2,433, while resistance has decreased to 2,294. The RSI has decreased significantly to 43, indicating a weakening of bullish sentiment compared to the previous report. Market uncertainty regarding interest rates has influenced gold prices.
EUR/USD remains in a bullish trend but has moved into a corrective phase, with the price slightly decreasing to 1.0852, now around the VWAP of 1.0840. Support has adjusted lower to 1.0780, while resistance has increased to 1.0900. The RSI has decreased to 56, indicating a slight moderation in bullish pressure compared to the previous report. Eurozone economic data showing weaker growth has impacted the pair.
GBP/USD remains in a bullish trend and continues in an impulsive phase, with the price slightly decreasing to 1.2738, now above the previous VWAP of 1.2690. Support has adjusted higher to 1.2558, and resistance has decreased to 1.2822. The RSI has decreased slightly to 61, indicating a moderation of bullish sentiment compared to the previous report. Bank of England's comments on inflation have affected the pair.
USD/JPY remains in a bullish trend and continues in an impulsive phase, with the price increasing to 157.41, now above the previous VWAP of 156.41. Support has adjusted higher to 154.83, while resistance has increased to 157.99. The RSI has increased to 60, reflecting a strengthening of bullish sentiment compared to the previous report. The yen's weakness amid BoJ's dovish stance has driven the pair higher.
DAX**DAX:**
This week's forecast will be for the price to drop to the bottom of the channel and after that move we'll have the scenario of the price continuing its descent to the area between 17.899 and 17.702 or reversing the trend after the touch and reaching the value of 18800.
New month. New BeginningsOn both charts we can see that at the end of May, volume began to decrease and prices seems to be moving sideways and holding.
Non farm payroll on Friday will be closey watched and may have the charts find direction as they will use the results to gauge the direction of interest rates.
The results are expected to be good but investor worry that a strong economy may prevent the interest rates from lowering.
I wil lkeep on te stance that good results will provide positive movements until I am shown other wise
GDAXI Germany 40 showed false breakoutGermany 40 seems false breakout, it's a great time to try short position, or cut some your stocks long positions.
GDAXI Germany 40 showed false breakoutGermany 40 seems false breakout, it's a great time to try short position, or cut some your stocks long positions.
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LONG IDEAMarket has shifted favoring longs. Targets and annotations made in the chart. 18581.4 possible targets.
Key levels and annotations made on the chart.
Once the stop level of 18443.9 is breached, the idea is invalidated and no trades for the day
As usual, manage risk and conserve capital.
Risk engaged minimized to half following a loss on the previous idea.
GER30 Weekly Idea 5.28.24My Usual Setup that I didn't publish... still has some interesting levels to play out.
SHORT IDEAMy bias is still favoring the short side,
Targets and annotations made in the chart. 18300 possible short targets.
Key levels and annotations made on the chart.
Once the stop level of 18549.9 is breached, the idea is invalidated.
As usual, manage risk and conserve capital.
DAX Tests Critical Support after Hotter German InflationConsumer price pressures in Germany accelerated in April to 2.4% y/y, which marked the first uptick since December. Eurozone inflation meanwhile persisted at the same level (May preliminary due on Friday), while wages in the region increased in the first quarter. This has created some worries around the disinflation process and the central bank’s prospects for less restrictive stance.
GER30 extends its slide from the recent all-time peak into the third week as a result and now tests a crucial support area. It breaches the EMA200 (H4) threatening the 38.2% Fibonacci of its last leg up. This would pause the bullish momentum and create risk for deeper pullback towards the daily Ichimoku Cloud, but we are cautious around sustained weakness.
Recent European inflation data may have showed some persistence and European officials may have warned against back-to-back rate cuts, but the ECB is expected to become the first major central bank to pivot and slash rates next week. This shift towards looser monetary setting, along with Germany’s exit for recession, are supportive for the stock market. Furthermore, the RSI is oversold and if GER30 manages to hold the pivotal EMA200 and 38.2% Fibo, its bullish bias would be reaffirmed and could lead to new record highs.
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
SHORT IDEA
Anticipating a continuation lower during this session and continuation during the New York Sessions. Longs seem unfavorable
Annotations and anticipated key levels made in the chart for partials and potential targets.
Once the stop level of 18670 level is breached, the idea is invalidated and will be on the sidelines for a new opportunity.
As usual, manage risk appropriately and conserve capital
$DAX40 is reversing downTVC:DEU40 is close to confirm a top and a break below 18450 will confirm that
GER30 SETUP GER30 expected move today or tomorrow but we expect it to bounce on our OB the we executed uor trades
Weekly Technical AnalysisStart your week by identifying the key price levels and trends.
The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex.
*KEY
Trend direction is set by the slope of the VWAP
Trend phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level
Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively.
Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold).
-----------------------------------------------------------
Analysis
Germany 40 remains in a bullish trend and has been correcting through time rather than price, with the price increasing slightly to 18,775, still above the VWAP of 18,622. Support and resistance levels have adjusted to 18,325 and 18,920, respectively. The RSI has decreased slightly to 62, indicating a slight moderation in sentiment compared to the previous report.
UK 100 remains in a bullish trend but has transitioned into a corrective phase, with the price decreasing slightly to 8,320, now below the previous VWAP of 8,383. Support has adjusted to 8,271, while resistance has decreased to 8,495. The RSI has decreased significantly to 53, reflecting a reduction in bullish sentiment compared to the previous report.
Wall Street remains in a bullish trend but has moved into a corrective phase, with the price decreasing notably to 39,083, now below the previous VWAP of 39,473 - indicating a rising chance of a full bearish reversal. Support and resistance levels have adjusted to 38,689 and 40,256, respectively. The RSI has decreased significantly to 47, signalling a reduction in bullish momentum compared to the previous report.
Brent Crude remains in a bearish trend and continues in a corrective phase, with the price decreasing slightly to 82.99, now slightly above the previous VWAP of 82.72. Support has adjusted lower to 81.23, while resistance has decreased to 84.21. The RSI has decreased slightly to 46, indicating a slight moderation in bearish sentiment compared to the previous report.
Gold remains in a bullish trend but has shifted into a corrective phase, with the price decreasing to 2,343, now below the previous VWAP of 2,361. Support has adjusted higher to 2,289, while resistance has decreased to 2,434. The RSI has decreased significantly to 47, indicating a weakening of bullish sentiment compared to the previous report.
EUR/USD remains in a bullish trend and continues in an impulsive phase, with the price slightly decreasing to 1.0877, now above the previous VWAP of 1.0821. Support has adjusted higher to 1.0728, while resistance has increased to 1.0914. The RSI has decreased slightly to 63, indicating a slight moderation in bullish pressure compared to the previous report.
GBP/USD remains in a bullish trend and continues in an impulsive phase, with the price increasing to 1.2775, now above the previous VWAP of 1.2637. Support has adjusted higher to 1.2443, and resistance has increased to 1.2831. The RSI has increased significantly to 71, indicating a strengthening of bullish sentiment compared to the previous report.
USD/JPY has shifted in a neutral phase with the VWAP now more-or-less flat since the big reversal from over 160 and the price consolidating around the VWAP, though more recently increasing to 156.83, now above the previous VWAP of 155.82. Support has adjusted higher to 154.10, while resistance has increased to 157.54. The RSI has increased to 59, reflecting a strengthening of bullish sentiment compared to the previous report.
Possible LONG trade for GER40price overall looks so bullish , current structure shows a market structural shift on the 1hr TF
signal for potential bull run and a formation of inverse Head and Shoulders formation on the 1hr TF which align together with fib 61.8 level, lets watch and see how price react to the zone
✅DAX BULLISH SETUP|LONG🚀
✅DAX is going up now
While trading in an uptrend
And our bullish bias is
Reinforced buy the recent
Confirmed breakout of the
Key horizontal level of 18,500
Which was then retested and
Became a support therefore
We will be expecting a
Further move up
LONG🚀
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
Next Target is the Trendline Top. Expect Breakout Wedge PatternRising Wedge Pattern has formed and Next Target is the Trendline Top. If Breakout Rising Wedge Pattern, then the 2nd Target is 44000 (+135 %).
I want to help people to Make Profit all over the World.
DAX H4 | Heading into all-time highsThe DAX (GER30) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 18,923.54 which is a pullback resistance at the all-time high.
Stop loss is at 19,050.00 which is a level that sits above the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit is at 18,671.33 which is an overlap support.
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Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
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