GER40FT trade ideas
Weekly Technical Analysis 20/05/2024Start your week by identifying the key price levels and trends.
The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex.
*KEY
Trend direction is set by the slope of the VWAP
Trend phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level and Elliot waves
Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively.
Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold).
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Analysis
Germany 40 has maintained its bullish trend and continues in an impulsive phase, with the price increasing to 18,733, now above the previous VWAP of 18,407. Support and resistance levels have adjusted to 17,687 and 19,127, respectively. The RSI has decreased slightly to 63, indicating a slight moderation in bullish sentiment compared to the previous report.
UK 100 remains in a bullish trend and continues in an impulsive phase, with the price rising to 8,429, now above the previous VWAP of 8,312. Support has increased to 8,067, while resistance has risen to 8,556. The RSI has decreased to 74, reflecting a slight reduction in bullish sentiment compared to the previous report.
Wall Street remains in a bullish trend and continues in an impulsive phase, with the price rising notably to 40,028, which is well above the previous VWAP of 38,917. The support and resistance levels have adjusted to 37,507 and 40,327, respectively. The RSI has increased to 73, signalling a further increase in bullish momentum compared to the previous report.
Brent Crude remains in a bearish trend but has shifted from an impulsive to a corrective phase, with the price increasing slightly to 84.12, now slightly above the previous VWAP of 83.81. Support has adjusted higher to 80.84, while resistance has decreased to 86.78. The RSI has increased to 47, indicating a slight moderation in bearish sentiment compared to the previous report.
Gold has shifted to a bullish trend and moved into an impulsive phase, with the price increasing to 2,442, now above the previous VWAP of 2,344. Support has adjusted higher to 2,258, while resistance has increased to 2,430. The RSI has increased significantly to 69, indicating a strengthening of bullish sentiment compared to the previous report.
EUR/USD remains in a bullish trend and continues in an impulsive phase, with the price increasing to 1.0879, now above the previous VWAP of 1.0776. Support has adjusted higher to 1.0647, while resistance has risen to 1.0906. The RSI has increased significantly to 66, indicating a strengthening of bullish pressure compared to the previous report.
GBP/USD has shifted from a neutral to a bullish trend and moved into an impulsive phase, with the price increasing to 1.2700, now above the previous VWAP of 1.2565. Support has adjusted higher to 1.2415, and resistance has increased to 1.2714. The RSI has increased significantly to 66, indicating a strengthening of bullish sentiment compared to the previous report.
USD/JPY has shifted from a bullish to a neutral trend and moved into a consolidation phase, with the price at 155.76, holding above the VWAP of 155.38. Support has adjusted higher to 152.66, while resistance has increased to 158.11. The RSI has decreased slightly to 54, reflecting a moderation in sentiment compared to the previous report.
GR40 -EXTENDED RUNNote: Note that GR40 has been a relative strength leader above all other Index
Note same pattern is playing for all the index:
Dow, Nasdaq, S&P..
Currently broke and trading above the Friday bar, expecting continuation this Week
202421 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - daxdax cfd
Quote from last week:
bull case: Bears gave up since Monday and we melted 800 points higher. I got 2 measured move targets above, 19280 and 19650. Technically we should see a pull-back first and depending on how deep it is, we can calculate new targets. I think next week everything will be determined by the PPI and CPI prints. If they come in low, I think it’s very likely that we will see the 20000.
comment: Got that pull-back on Monday but weak and shallow. Bears tried again on Tuesday but bulls bought the ppi spike and rallied to a new ath 19006. Thursday was an surprisingly strong bear day and we sold off for 230 points and bulls could not get it much higher than 18800 on Friday. Both of my wave theses are still valid and Monday or Tuesday will determine the outcome. I won’t be a perma bear here and early again. Completely open to bulls melting up for my measured move targets or even 20000.
current market cycle: Bull trend or trading range. If bulls keep going past 19000, obviously a bull trend but if they fail to print much higher than 19100, this was just a higher high in a trading range 17600 - 19000.
key levels: 18400 / 20000
bull case: Bulls got a new ath and market sold off for 200 points to close the week below 18900 which was the second weekly rejection of that price level. Bulls need to keep this pull-back shallow, inside the small bull channel and above the daily 20ema for continuation. The bull channel and the daily ema are close enough for me to think we either go sideways to touch them or dip and bounce. That would be a perfect two legged correction and odds would favor the bulls for a third leg up. Invalidation price would be somewhere between 18500 - 18600 and then the big bull trend line has to hold if we get there or the trend is done and we are in a trading range.
bear case: Last time we got here to a new ath, we pulled-back for 1300 points, very shortly after. Bears printed one good looking bearish engulfing candle on Thursday but for more bulls to begin taking profits, they need consecutive bear bars closing near the lows. If they can’t do that and market goes sideways, bulls will take it as a buy signal because after such a strong rally, odds favor another leg up. Right now market printed an expanding triangle and a two legged pullback near the bull trend line and ema. All of those patterns are buy signals. All of them can fail and we sell-off but from an odds perspective, bears are not favored until they do more. Invalidation for bears is above 18900ish.
outlook last week: “Pull-back should happen but longs are favored until bears make lower lows and break the 1h 20ema. I updated my daily chart but it’s only a very rough guess. Inflation prints will dominate the markets this week and I will give daily updates.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 18894 and now we are at 18805. Two-legged pull-back happened as laid out.
short term: Can’t be anything but neutral with if-statements. If we strongly break below 18600 and bears keep the selling pressure high, this higher high double top could have been it and we get 18300-18400 next. If bulls (they are slightly favored) manage to break above 18900 again, we will most probably retest the ath or go directly into the third leg up or W5.
medium-long term: Time runs thin on my -20 to -30% correction target so I need to adjust the timeline. I’m confident we will print 17000 over the next 2-3 Months but 16600 could be tough so that could happen early 2025 as well. Will update this along the way. —unchanged
current swing trade: Shorted 18971 on 2024-05-16 and took profits on 2024-05-17. Will update this in the daily after hour updates from next week on.
Chart update: Updated wave thesis slightly and removed the first two-legged correction because it does not add value from here on.
202421 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - daxdax cfd
Quote from last week:
bull case: Bears gave up since Monday and we melted 800 points higher. I got 2 measured move targets above, 19280 and 19650. Technically we should see a pull-back first and depending on how deep it is, we can calculate new targets. I think next week everything will be determined by the PPI and CPI prints. If they come in low, I think it’s very likely that we will see the 20000.
comment: Got that pull-back on Monday but weak and shallow. Bears tried again on Tuesday but bulls bought the ppi spike and rallied to a new ath 19006. Thursday was an surprisingly strong bear day and we sold off for 230 points and bulls could not get it much higher than 18800 on Friday. Both of my wave theses are still valid and Monday or Tuesday will determine the outcome. I won’t be a perma bear here and early again. Completely open to bulls melting up for my measured move targets or even 20000.
current market cycle: Bull trend or trading range. If bulls keep going past 19000, obviously a bull trend but if they fail to print much higher than 19100, this was just a higher high in a trading range 17600 - 19000.
key levels: 18400 / 20000
bull case: Bulls got a new ath and market sold off for 200 points to close the week below 18900 which was the second weekly rejection of that price level. Bulls need to keep this pull-back shallow, inside the small bull channel and above the daily 20ema for continuation. The bull channel and the daily ema are close enough for me to think we either go sideways to touch them or dip and bounce. That would be a perfect two legged correction and odds would favor the bulls for a third leg up. Invalidation price would be somewhere between 18500 - 18600 and then the big bull trend line has to hold if we get there or the trend is done and we are in a trading range.
bear case: Last time we got here to a new ath, we pulled-back for 1300 points, very shortly after. Bears printed one good looking bearish engulfing candle on Thursday but for more bulls to begin taking profits, they need consecutive bear bars closing near the lows. If they can’t do that and market goes sideways, bulls will take it as a buy signal because after such a strong rally, odds favor another leg up. Right now market printed an expanding triangle and a two legged pullback near the bull trend line and ema. All of those patterns are buy signals. All of them can fail and we sell-off but from an odds perspective, bears are not favored until they do more. Invalidation for bears is above 18900ish.
outlook last week: “Pull-back should happen but longs are favored until bears make lower lows and break the 1h 20ema. I updated my daily chart but it’s only a very rough guess. Inflation prints will dominate the markets this week and I will give daily updates.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 18894 and now we are at 18805. Two-legged pull-back happened as laid out.
short term: Can’t be anything but neutral with if-statements. If we strongly break below 18600 and bears keep the selling pressure high, this higher high double top could have been it and we get 18300-18400 next. If bulls (they are slightly favored) manage to break above 18900 again, we will most probably retest the ath or go directly into the third leg up or W5.
medium-long term: Time runs thin on my -20 to -30% correction target so I need to adjust the timeline. I’m confident we will print 17000 over the next 2-3 Months but 16600 could be tough so that could happen early 2025 as well. Will update this along the way. —unchanged
current swing trade: Shorted 18971 on 2024-05-16 and took profits on 2024-05-17. Will update this in the daily after hour updates from next week on.
Chart update: Updated wave thesis slightly and removed the first two-legged correction because it does not add value from here on.
DAX may threaten breakout pointIntraday Update: After hitting the 127% extension this week, the German DAX may be at risk of testing the breakout point at 18568 which traders will be watching for a close above/below for the week.
Strong Support: DAX Ready to Climb AgainWith the remarkable surge of the past few weeks, the DAX nearly reached the 19,000-point mark. However, just before reaching it, the momentum faded, leading to a period of weakness. Now, a strong hammer candlestick is visible in an important support area. Therefore, it can be assumed that the correction is now coming to an end and the DAX will once again approach recent highs.
DAX Another perfect sell opportunity emerges like the last one.DAX (FDAX1!) gave as an excellent sell opportunity last month (April 11, see chart below) that hit the 17700 Target and shortly after rebounded:
The index yet again flashes a sell signal as the price got rejected yesterday exactly at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 1.5 year Channel Up. In symmetrical terms, this is similar to the Higher High rejection of May 19 2023, which pulled back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
The 1D MACD is also inside a similar Falling Wedge pattern and will confirm the sell signal once it makes a Bearish Cross. Our Target now is 18350.
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DE40 heading to 18300 / 17600negative divergence
major resistance around 19000
decreasing in volume
the most estimated scenario support the droop to 18300/17600
2024-05-16 - a daily price action after hour update - dax/Good Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Bulls rallied to another ath where many of them took profits and bears began shorting after a lower high. The selling on bigger volume into the close is a sell signal going into tomorrow. Bulls have to break out of the formed bear channels to make bears doubt the highs might be in. Since tomorrow is Opex, everyone is max bullish and VIX is at the lows, we could be in for a surprise tomorrow.
dax
comment: Bear trend from before the open, after Globex made a new ath 19006. Since it’s the end of the week, the open, low and high prices of the week are important to watch. I always mark them on my charts when they occur.
current market cycle: trading range - bulls broke 19000 but no follow through, if we close this week below 18900, we got a higher high but inside a trading range and odds favor that we trade down to 18000 again.
key levels: 18738 - 19006
bull case: Bulls began to take profits and today’s selling was without any stop which makes me believe that big institutions are off-loading their positions while they can. Low of the week was 18738 and that should be bulls last hope for tomorrow. If they can not hold that level, we probably trade down to 18600 and below that is 18400.
bear case: Bears created a sell signal on the daily chart going into tomorrow. The weekly and monthly charts now show big tails above and if we can close below 18900, that would be a second rejection of that level on the weekly chart. Last time we made a new ath we sold off for 1280 points so that is my base assumption for the next weeks.
short term: Bearish - But can see a retest of the highs if bulls break strongly above the 1h 20ema tomorrow. 18738 must hold or we could crash down.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
trade of the day: EU open could not get a close above the 15m 20ema and had many tails above bars. Could have sold anywhere with stop new ath.
Germany 30Pair : Germany 30 Index
Description :
Break of Structure
RSI - Divergence
Bullish Channel as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves
Resistance Level
DAX 🗝️ LEVELS TO WATCH 👀AND WHY 🤔Hello awesome traders, let's have a look at the DAX. I have a new analysis today as the previous exchange seems to be shut down.
Here are the details: The DAX on a weekly chart is trading a cup and handle pattern, and the price is now trading below near the target zone 1 at 62%: 19078.70. After a successful breakout from 16305.21, the target zones are as follows:
Target Zone 1:
62%: 19078.70
78%: 19817.23
Pattern Height:
100%: 20784.96
DAX H4 | Strong bullish momentumDAX (GER30) could fall towards a pullback support and potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 18,737.91 which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 18,600.00 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 18,992.91 which is a level that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level.
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Potential bearish drop?Price is rising towards the pivot and could potentially drop from this level to the 1st support.
Pivot: 18,848.30
1st Support: 18,545.10
1st Resistance: 18,990.82
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Reversal in the DAXThis day we face inflation data in several euro zone countries, including Germany. In the American session, ECB member Isabel Schnabel will issue a statement. The German representative argues that rates should be maintained as they are at least until June, but it remains to be seen whether the presidency will heed the recommendations of the Executive Board. As early as February, she suggested that the long period of high inflation would force us to adopt a "stop-and-go" policy similar to that of the 1970s, promoting caution and not adjusting the ECB's policy stance prematurely. We will see if the German will change her mind once the German market regains its tone in the direction of economic growth.
If we focus on the chart, currently the DAX position (Ticker AT: GER40), is bearish, partly due to the poor industrial production data and the performance of the German market in general. As well as Germany's difficulty in selling to its key market which is the United States, as its exports have declined. On May 10 there was a bearish correction figure and signal, also signaled by the RSI, and it is true that it has been continuing during this week in a gradual way, possibly in anticipation of the ECB statements.
At this moment, it would be foreseeable for the index to return to its last bullish support in the 18277.38 zone if the market loses its positive tone. If the German market x-ray for the summer is more positive, there could be a rebound in the 18603 points zone and try to find again the highs at 18844 points. Currently the RSI is slightly oversold, and the price bell indicates a downward continuation as the bell has a very marked figure with a checkpoint well below the bullish support zone at 17950 points.
Ion Jauregui - AT Analyst
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Trade Idea DAx 14/05/2024Le Dax est Bullish pour un moment, nous devons donc chercher des positions long dans un premier temps.
Le FVG Daily ci-dessous est également intéressant pour le prix.
Donc il faut agire aec prudence et rester dans les HTF
Elliott Wave Intraday on DAX Shows Incomplete Bullish SequenceShort Term Elliott Wave in DAX suggests that the Index ended wave (4) pullback at 17626.54. From there, it rallies higher in wave (5) as a nesting impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave (4), wave ((i)) ended at 18226.32 and dips in wave ((ii)) ended at 17795.96. The Index then nested higher within wave ((iii)). Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 18235.80 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 17875.98. Wave (iii) higher ended at 18845.86 and wave (iv) pullback is proposed complete at 18706.08.
Expect the Index to rally higher in wave (v) to complete wave ((iii)). Potential target for wave (v) is 123.6 – 161.8% external retracement of wave (iv). This area comes at 18877 – 18930. Afterwards, it should pullback in wave ((iv)) to correct cycle from 4.25.2024 low before another high again in wave ((v)) to end wave 1. Then it should do a larger degree correction in wave 2 to correct cycle from 4.19.2024 low before it resumes higher. Near term, as far as pivot at 17626.54 low stays intact, expect any pullback to find support in 3, 7, 11 swing for further upside.
Weekly Technical AnalysisStart your week by identifying the key price levels and trends.
The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex.
*KEY
Trend direction is set by the slope of the VWAP
Trend phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level and Elliot waves
Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively.
Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold).
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Analysis
Germany 40 has shifted from a neutral trend to a bullish one and moved into an impulsive phase, with the price increasing to 18,789, now well above the previous VWAP of 18,157. Support and resistance levels have adjusted to 17,493 and 18,790, respectively. The RSI has significantly increased to 72, indicating a strengthening of bullish sentiment.
UK 100 remains in a bullish trend and continues in an impulsive phase, with the price rising to 8,426, now above the previous VWAP of 8,181. Support has increased to 7,888, while resistance has risen to 8,475. The RSI has escalated to 81, reflecting a continued strong build-up of bullish sentiment.
Wall Street has shifted from a neutral to a bullish trend and remains in an impulsive phase, with the price rising notably to 39,529, which is well above the previous VWAP of 38,448. The support and resistance levels have adjusted to 37,371 and 39,529, respectively. The RSI has risen to 68, signalling an increase in bullish momentum.
Brent Crude remains in a bearish trend but has transitioned back to an impulsive phase, with the price decreasing slightly to 82.47, now below the previous VWAP of 84.95. Support has adjusted lower to 80.61, while resistance has decreased to 89.29. The RSI has remained nearly stable at 34, indicating continued bearish momentum.
Gold has shifted from a positive to a neutral trend and continues to consolidate, albeit with an upwards bias, with the price increasing slightly to 2,351, now above the previous VWAP of 2,329. Support has adjusted slightly higher to 2,282, while resistance has decreased to 2,376. The RSI has increased to 57, indicating a cooling in sentiment.
EUR/USD has shifted from a bearish to a bullish trend and moved into an impulsive phase, with the price increasing to 1.0774, now above the previous down-sloping VWAP of 1.0724. Support has adjusted higher to 1.0642, while resistance has risen to 1.0806. The RSI has increased slightly to 55, indicating a build-up of bullish pressure.
GBP/USD has shifted from a bearish to more of a sideways neutral trend and is consolidating ahead of a potential shift to a bullish trend, with the price at 1.2533, holding above the VWAP of 1.2494. Support has adjusted to 1.2381, and resistance has increased to 1.2608. The RSI remains stable at 51, reflecting a balance in sentiment.
USD/JPY remains in a bullish trend and continues in an impulsive phase, with the price increasing notably to 155.82, now above the previous VWAP of 155.25. Support has adjusted higher to 152.33, while resistance has increased slightly to 158.16. The RSI has increased to 57, indicating a moderation of bullish sentiment.
DAX 40 keeps building higherGlobal equities are back pursuing new highs in force. European indices have been standing out in the past week with the FTSE 100, DAX 40 and EURO STOXX 50 all beating the performance of US equities. The outlook seems brighter in Europe as growth has remained positive in the first quarter of the year and that has been driving the push higher.
The DAX 40 has encountered some pushback at 18,800 but the bias remains strongly higher. This week we’ll have second readings for German CPI and Euro Zone growth which could provide some moves if they deviate from the preliminary readings, but other than that the economic calendar is pretty empty in Europe. Momentum may continue to be driven by expectations of lower rates in Europe as markets are currently pricing in an 84% chance of a 25 bps cut from the European Central Bank (ECB) at its meeting on June 6 according to data from Reuters. If these expectations remain high over the coming weeks the path of least resistance for European indices is likely to be higher.
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