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DAX (DAX Index): Waves of uncertainty 🌊DAX (DAX Index): XETR:DAX We recognize that our analysis might diverge from other analysts', but our assessment clearly indicates that the DAX is currently in an overarching Wave 4, visible on the weekly chart within a multi-year scenario. This holds unless we surpass the 18,000 level. If we move beyond 18,000, a reevaluation and recount would be necessary. Until then, we anticipate a decline in the DAX over the coming weeks, months, and possibly years. The exact timing, whether it rises or falls, cannot be pinpointed to a specific year. However, it's important to note that as long as the DAX doesn't exceed 138%, or the 18,000 mark, we expect to be in an Expanded Flat scenario. This aligns well with our expectations for Wave C or the overarching Wave IV, which should fall below Wave (A), fitting the pattern where both B and C waves overshoot in an Expanded Flat. Examining the 4-hour chart, we encounter the same scenario. Without flipping this key level, no significant change is expected. The 1-hour and 4-hour charts suggest an imminent rise, not immediately obvious on the daily or weekly charts, predicting a climb to around 17,500 euros before a downturn in the DAX. We do not anticipate an immediate reversal today or tomorrow but expect a final upward impulse before a corrective move downwards.
XETR:DAXShort
by freeguy_by_wmc
Stock price reversals following end-of-the-day price moves█ Stock price reversals following end-of-the-day price moves In the intriguing world of stock trading, the research paper "Stock price reversals following end-of-the-day price moves" by Andrey Kudryavtsev takes a deep dive into the dynamics of stock price behavior, particularly focusing on interday reversals. Key to this study is the exploration of potentially profitable contrarian strategies. Preceding research has shown that these strategies, which bet against the current market trends, can yield significant abnormal returns – approximately 1.7% weekly and 2.5% monthly. The study analyzes thirty stocks from the Dow Jones Industrial Index, focusing on high-to-close and low-to-close price differences. It finds that stocks usually have higher returns following days with significant end-of-day price drops and lower returns after days with end-of-day price rises. These patterns suggest a market correction of overreactions. Based on these findings, the construction of daily-adjusted portfolios shows significantly positive returns, indicating the profitability of trading strategies based on these reversal patterns. █ Research Background and Hypothesis In stock trading, the concept of price overreaction is not new. Prior studies have established that stock prices often overreact to news, leading to a subsequent correction or reversal to a more 'fair' reaction level. This is particularly evident in intraday stock price movements, where overreactions and reversals are commonly observed. To investigate this, the study utilizes high-to-close and low-to-close stock price differences as proxies for end-of-the-day price decreases and increases. These price differences are compared for each stock in the sample and on each trading day. The hypothesis is that the daily return of a stock will be higher if its previous day's high-to-close difference is greater than the low-to-close difference. █ Methodology Let's get into the nuts and bolts. The study focused on thirty stocks that form the Dow Jones Industrial Index. Trading data from January 2, 2002, to September 30, 2011, encompassing 2,456 trading days was analyzed. Kudryavtsev used these stocks' daily high, low, and closing prices, as recorded on finance.yahoo.com. But it wasn't just a straightforward data grab. The prices were meticulously adjusted for dividend payments and stock splits. This adjustment was done by multiplying each actual price by the ratio of the day's reported adjusted closing price (as per Yahoo Finance) to the actual closing price. ⚪ For each stock and for each trading day (except the first day of the sampling period), two key metrics were calculated: High-to-Close Price Difference (RHCit): This measures the difference between the stock’s daily high and closing price. RHCit := math.abs(high - close) / close * 100 Low-to-Close Price Difference (RLCit): The difference between the stock’s daily low and closing price. RLCit := math.abs(low - close) / close * 100 These differences are expressed as absolute percentage price differences, ensuring they are non-negative values. By focusing on these two metrics, the study aimed to capture the essence of the stock's performance and its potential for a reversal the following day. █ Findings and Analysis For most stocks analyzed (28 out of 30), mean daily returns were higher following days with dominant high-to-close price differences, i.e., days closed with price decreases. This trend was statistically significant for most of these stocks, with 22 showing significant mean return differences at the 5% level, including 15 at the 1% level. Furthermore, for most stocks (29 out of 30), mean daily returns were positive when the previous day's high-to-close price difference prevailed and negative when the low-to-close difference did. These results support the study's hypothesis, demonstrating a pattern of reverting behavior in stock prices following end-of-the-day price moves. Such findings contribute to the existing literature on stock price overreactions and market inefficiencies and suggest potentially profitable opportunities for traders who can capitalize on these predictable reversal patterns. █ Implications for Traders Andrey Kudryavtsev's study offers valuable insights for traders, especially those focusing on short-term investments. The key findings highlight a consistent pattern where stocks tend to reverse their price movement the following day after significant end-of-day changes. For traders looking to capitalize on these insights, the study suggests constructing portfolios that adjust daily based on the observed reversal pattern. This involves holding long positions in stocks expected to yield high returns (following large high-to-close price decreases) and short positions in stocks expected to yield low returns (following large low-to-close price increases). By comparing the high-to-close and low-to-close price differences to the mean and median measures for the total sample, traders can identify stocks likely to follow the reversal pattern. This approach could be particularly effective for day traders or those who make frequent, short-term trades, as it leverages the daily fluctuations in stock prices. However, traders need to consider transaction costs and market volatility, which can impact the profitability of such strategies. █ Reference Kudryavtsev, A. (2013). Stock price reversals following end-of-the-day price moves. Economics Letters, 118(3), 203-205 ----------------- Disclaimer This is an educational study for entertainment purposes only. The information in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on evaluating their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs. My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
OANDA:DE30EUREducation
by Zeiierman
3
DE40 DAX sell scenarioDax de40 have been in a crazy bull run since few months and i think its time for a slow down. oblique support have been broke, index is oversold in weekly and we can see it loosing bull power and forming flat top in lower timeframe. I think we can see it make a last push up in the 18100 area and then start a correction since the market like to sell high. i will try a short in this area after a good final push. i will five SL and TP 1 once we reach the potential selling area.
CAPITALCOM:DE40Short
by Trading_Flight
Resistance overhead?The DAX (DE40) could rise towards a resistance level at 18,263.22 which has been identified as a pivot point. Could price stall around this level before potentially making a bearish reaction to drop lower? Pivot: 18,263.22 Support: 18,005.20 Resistance: 18,431.16 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
DShort
by ICmarkets
Potential bounce to new ATHs?The DAX (DE40) could fall towards an overlap support at 17,903.18 which has been identified as a pivot point. Price could potentially bounce off this level to make a new all-time-high (ATH). Pivot: 17,903.18 Support: 17,659.90 Resistance: 18,263.12 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
DLong
by ICmarkets