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a daily price action after hour update - daxGood evening and i hope you are well. I repeated the importance of the monthly close today because my thesis is still that the sp500 e-mini needs daily closes above 5100 for this not being the final move of an unbelievably climactic move. February closed at 5096.5. Does that make my thesis right and we sell off from here? Probably not. Markets mostly going nowhere except for the dax and we need a bigger move with follow through for a new direction. dax Quote from yesterday: short term: same as last days - btfd and probably more daily new highs. it does not matter that it’s overbought and a pullback is due. could continue way more up We got same as last days. Higher high and close at the highs. Nothing is stopping this. Every pullback is bought and buying the 1h 20ema is a profitable strategy for 2 straight weeks. I honestly think we are a couple of days away from funds closing because they kept shorting this. Please forgive my lack of enthusiasm to go deeper into price action for this index. It’s beyond climactic and i think any bigger profit taking could trigger an avalanche of stops because no one want’s to be left holding the bag. Still, for now, it’s only going up and could continue longer than anyone would think. Side note: I dare you to find another example for the Dax where it gained more points on declining GDP figures. Disclaimer: I do think financial markets are nothing but the biggest casino in the world, short term. Long term obviously, fundamentals win. But the extend of this move into this economic outlook and reported figures left and right is beyond anything and i already accounted for a big blow off top and a climactic move on top but this exceeds it by far. bull case: btfd. bear case: none. short term: up and this only changes once we stop making higher highs and start making lower lows again medium-long term: bulls closed the month at the highs and my medium-long term targets were way off and i was early in December to call this top. Maybe it tops at 18000, maybe not. trade of the day: same as last 2 weeks, buy everything around the 1h 20ema
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURLong
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - daxGood evening and i hope you are well. If you follow the dax and maybe some German economic indicators or listen to the German word on the street, you are probably wondering how on earth this market can go higher and print daily new ath’s. Welp, all traders see it's overbought but it still keeps going up. This is absolutely the blow off top and the end of this move and it will soon be over. I have zero doubt about it and we will see at least -30% this year. Feel free to rub it in my face when i have been wrong at the end of the year. Most other indexes are ranging at the highs and bulls are still in btfd mode. Don't over commit to shorts and play the range. Quote from my weekend outlook: bull case: Bulls closed the week very bullish and even if all targets are met and they are at multiple upper trend lines, they can just continue the pump, there is no denying that. I know i keep repeating myself. Risk reward for buying up here is bad but if there is no selling pressure, the probability is on the bull side and every trade is a trade-off between risk, reward and probability. Next target for bulls can be 17500, 18000. bull case: Not much to add here. Until we see higher selling pressure and stop making new daily all time highs, the music will continue. Next time profit taking starts, we will see a -2% / -3% day. bear case: Just nothing. All red bars are probably from bulls taking profits and not bears shorting. 17530 is the first bear target. short term: btfd and probably more daily new highs. it does not matter that it’s overbought and a pullback is due. could continue way more up. i am neutral here and scalp only long until bears show strength medium-long term: strong break above everything with follow through, can’t deny higher prices and no one knows when the squeeze will end. still waiting for the monthly close to give new targets. i’m still holding long term dax shorts which are obviously deep deep red. trade of the day: just a relentless bull trend from the open. no reason anywhere to exit longs
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
DAX Forecast: Exploring Wave Patterns and Correction Scenarios🌍German DAX Analysis Taking another look at the German benchmark index, the DAX XETR:DAX , our scenario remains unchanged. If we don't breach the 18,000 EUR mark, we anticipate continuing with Wave IV, which is expected to range between 10,000 € and a maximum of 7,500 €, depending on the potential overshoot of Wave (B). This scenario will be invalidated if we surpass the 138 % level. Zooming into the 4-hour chart, we observe the formation more closely, potentially shaping Wave ((b)) that is currently in development. The 1-hour chart gives us an even closer view, indicating we are precisely in this phase of Wave ((b)). Crossing over 17,218 € would likely invalidate our current scenario, prompting a reevaluation of where Wave (B), marked in blue, could be located—potentially moving towards 17,500 € or up to 18,000 €. Should there be a turn at this juncture, we might see a flat correction, an overshooting flat moving down towards Wave ((c)) or Wave 1. After reaching the 127-138 % range, this phase should conclude with a 5-wave cycle downwards.
XETR:DAXShort
by freeguy_by_wmc
GRX Possible Trend Before Than Major Correctionthe detail is shown in the above Chart. I made this Idea based on Candlestick Analysis and Harmonic pattern. For clarity, the Harmonic pattern is not drawn in the above chart. We Expect that Grx Cannot Rise Up in three Level 1.27 and 1.618 Specially 2 As an engineer and manager, I deal almost daily with Siemens HV protective equipment and advanced automation equipment I love DAX because Of Siemens. Candles Patterns in The Green Region Define Sellers Target . I try to share with You my Updates for this Idea .
FOREXCOM:GER40
by SEYED98
Weekly Technical Analysis 26/02/2024Start your week by identifying the key price levels and trends. The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex. *KEY Trend direction is set by the slope of the VWAP Trend phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level and Elliot waves Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively. Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold). ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Analysis Germany 40 is currently in the impulsive phase of a bullish trend, with the price above its upward-sloping 20-period VWAP of 17,051. The index finds support at 16,678 and faces resistance near 17,340. The RSI stands at 68, indicating a positive momentum and approaching overbought territory. UK 100 is in the impulsive phase of a neutral trend with its price above the flat 20-period VWAP of 7,634.3. The index's support level is at 7,504.6, with resistance at 7,763.9. The RSI is at 56, suggesting a slightly bullish momentum. Wall Street is in an impulsive phase of a bullish trend, highlighted by its price above the upwards-sloping 20-period VWAP of 38,613. The support for this index is at 38,111, with resistance at 39,106.1. The RSI is at 65, indicating strong positive momentum. Brent Crude is consolidating in a neutral trend, with its price slightly below the flat 20-period VWAP of 81.01. The support level is at 77.84, with resistance near 84.19. The RSI is at 47, indicating a neutral momentum with a slight bearish bias. Gold is consolidating in a neutral trend, with its price just above the flat 20-period VWAP of 2,022 but close to it. The support level is at 1,994, with resistance at 2,050. The RSI at 55 indicates a neutral momentum, suggesting the market is assessing direction. EUR/USD is in the corrective phase of a bearish trend, with the price above its down-sloping 20-period VWAP of 1.0781. The support is at 1.0715, with resistance at 1.0846. The RSI at 54 indicates a bearish bias but with potential for slight upward movement. GBP/USD is consolidating in what has been a weak bearish trend, with the price above the flat-to-down-sloping 20-period VWAP of 1.2618. Support is found at 1.2548, with resistance at 1.2689. The RSI at 55 suggests a bearish outlook but with room for slight upward movement. USD/JPY is in the impulsive phase of a bullish trend, with its price above the 20-period VWAP of 149.64, having recently probed above the upper StdDev #2. The support level is at 147.87, with resistance at 151.41. The RSI is at 64, indicating strong bullish momentum.
SPREADEX:GDAXI
by Spreadex
Pullback Expected in German DAXLike most other major indices, the DAX has also reached new highs in recent months. Currently, the chart pattern is tempering overly bullish enthusiasm: the last bull surge was met with significant sell-offs by the end of the trading session, and the RSI in the daily chart is showing clear bearish divergence. Not only is the RSI showing these divergences, but also the Moving Average. Therefore, we are holding off on long entries for now and expect a correction to the area around 16,810 points. Here, we would enter long positions again and anticipate further upward movement towards around 17,550 points. Subsequently, in our estimation, a significant correction is likely to follow, potentially bringing the DAX to new yearly lows.
CAPITALCOM:DE40Long
by Ochlokrat
DAX at the Top: What to Expect?The DAX index starts on an uptrend , boosted by the positive close on Wall Street. Today, several crucial and expectation-boosting releases are expected from the German market, including Q4 2023 GDP growth, which is anticipated to be slightly negative at around -0.3% vs. 0% previously, as well as business sentiment reports from the IFO Institute at the University of Munich, which are expected to show a more positive outlook than in previous reports. In mid-morning, we will be watching for releases on consumer inflation and statements from European Central Bank (ECB) board member Isabel Schnabel. Schnabel has emphasized in her September statement the inflationary acceleration, attributing it to the pandemic cycle and the excessive increase in money demand as a need to be met, advocating output to combat recession and strong disinflation. Will the ECB's "quantitative money theory" follow suit? This could have a big impact on the euro zone. According to Schnabel: "inflation is not always everywhere a monetary phenomenon", and it is true that the ECB has expanded capital on a par with the US Fed. We will see if they continue along these lines. If the Euro zone decides to apply a rate adjustment to curb its inflation, it could generate a liquidity problem, and if it does not do so, it could continue to increase inflation considerably, which could collaterally generate a devaluation of the currency, and it is possible that the euro could become a Carry-On-Trade currency for the large banking operators if it continues in this way. Japan and Australia are already clearly in a similar economic period to Europe with a totally different debt composition, more internal than external. But Europe has a problem of excessive public spending that must be curtailed, and this could also have a major impact on the DAX and the euro. The DAX movement could also be influenced with the US elections after the first quarter, and Ursula von der Leyen's self-appointed second term as president of the European Commission yesterday. You should pay attention to these developments. From a technical point of view, the DAX has been in an uptrend since November, surpassing previous highs during the Christmas rally. After a correction in early January, coming out of its previous accumulation zone, it has climbed creating a new price accumulation zone, which was pierced on February 16, made support on the 20th and yesterday has returned to highs. Focusing on the RSI divergence we see that its trading strength has fallen to 59% versus the 78.13% it reached yesterday at 12 midnight European time. Although today we see a slight trend exhaustion, the ECB seems to be able to support this trend, which could take the index to the 18000 area in this quarter with probability, given that it is the upper zone of a channel of greater monthly progression, and must test that area in some way or another, this rebound that is forming today looks like a stop to take breath of a higher rise. Currently its all-time high price is at 17433.20, so it would not be unusual to see another strong engulfing move. Clearly the value building has been organized by the smart money that wants to collect interest thanks to the dividend of many companies listed in the German index. Ion Jauregui - AT Analyst The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
GLong
by ActivTrades
a daily price action after hour update - daxGood evening and i hope you are well. If you are a regular reader, you know by now, that i’m the first to acknowledge and point out my errors. I’m tougher on myself than the internet could ever be. Today was another humbling day for bearish takes on the market. One would think the odds for deeper pullbacks rise with each consecutive buy climax. Not today anyhow. Having invalidation prices for your market take is crucial for survival of your account and always have a stop in place. At the end of trends the odds of an exhaustive move are high. You can see this on higher time frames as on lower ones. This parabolic move today has a very high probability of being one but bears need to show strength soon. dax bull case: Very strong day and odds favor the bulls because they are in control and we are making higher highs. That’s the reality. Can bears print big bear bars and take over to reverse the whole day? Yeah i think so but it’s low probability. Bulls bought low and we are very high again. It’s also true that the last weeks bulls weren’t eager to buy into new highs and the pullbacks we got, got bigger. So tomorrow would be interesting to see if bulls can close above 17400 or not. Measured move from today’s spike (we had a spike-pullback bull trend today) is 17600. bear case: Bears will try to sell the highs again because the last couple of days/weeks they made money doing so. They need to trade down to a potential neckline 17290 and then form a higher low before they have a decent chance of lower prices. short term: down to sideways - pullback is expected but bulls are in control. higher prices are possible but i think sideways is the most likely outcome for tomorrow medium-long term: down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 17200 - bulls got one and another would change my mind until i see the monthly close. i still expect this Februar to close below 17000 but it’s far away trade of the day: long since globex open bar 2 because marked gapped up and never looked back. could have bought every pullback coming close to the 15 20ema also. after bar 29-32, there was 75% of a bull trend day and higher prices and one should not look for shorts after such a strong move until bears clearly took control and for that they have to break bull trend lines and trade below the ema - the higher the time frame the more reliable
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURShort
by priceactiontds
1
DAX Trading plan based on the 1D MA50DAX (DE40) is on a short-term Channel Up, supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has held twice in the past month (January 17 and February 13). As long as it holds, we will most likely see a break of the long-term Channel Up, which in time could complete a +20.90% rise as the July 31 2023 High. In that case, we will target 17400 on the short-term. If however the 1D MA50 breaks, we will open a sell and target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 16200. Based on the 1D RSI, which is showing a consolidation following a Channel Down, there are more probabilities of replicating the April - May 2023 bullish sequence. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:DE40
by TradingShot
1
I am observing the development of a double-top formationWe have a 1,2,3 top formation, a clear warning of trend reversal. The critical turning point occurs at Point 3, where the failure to exceed Point 1's peak underscores a noticeable lack of interest in maintaining the current bullish momentum. This pattern's inability to create new highs is evidence of diminishing buying pressure, a precursor to potential downtrends.development of a double-top formation, which, along with a falling wedge pattern, signals possible turning points in the market. We have also a recent double-top pattern, with two distinct peaks at similar price levels. This suggests strong resistance and a potential bearish reversal. If the price breaks through the support level, which acts as a neckline between the peaks, this could confirm the trend reversal. At the same time, the falling wedge pattern indicates a bullish undertone. This pattern requires a confirmed upward breakout with sufficient volume to validate a reversal. The falling wedge is usually recognized as a bullish pattern that occurs after a downtrend and suggests a possible reversal if the price breaks upward. However, until a breakout is confirmed with significant trading volume, I am assuming that the current downtrend will continue.
CAPITALCOM:DE40Short
by Spira_Scalper