HK50 trade ideas
Hang Seng Index Large Comple Correction TO CompleteIt looks like that the index has finished the correction around 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Now it could drop to the bottom of the range within a large complex correction
Hang Seng Index (HSI). Correction Could Be Over. Target 51300The correction that I expected earlier (see related) could be over already with shorter wave Y.
The final confirmation trigger set at 29200. The target is 51300.
HONG KONG UNDER RESISTANCE AND LOOKS BEARISHHello Traders,
Hong Kong is going through some troubling times right now. To summarize very briefly, Hong Kong has been its own entity for some time with its own legal systems, boarders and rights but due to legal agreements China wants to take back Hong Kong as part of China. This is a crude summary of events.
This is causing friction between Hong Kong and China and there have been violent protests for several months over the current situation. Hong Kong property market is also one of the most expensive in the world.
Due to the current climate of uncertainty and looking at the chart of the Hong Kong top 50, it looks very bearish to me.
Price has dropped out of a large descending triangle, that H+S dumping price to below the major support/resistance level. Price looks like its trying to break resistance but I think with whats going on right now it wont.
Quite simply if the price breaks resistance, holds resistance and moves up then that will make my bearish stance invalid.
But because I am bearish I am looking for weakness here. Repeated failures at resistance means the price will be going lower.
Hang Seng...Short term down?Hello Traders,
on May 22 Hang Seng made it`s low @ 22519 within a wave „X“ and advanced to 25303.8, a wave „Y“! The correction since that day is not a clear impulse down, nor is it a clear corrective pattern.
While the advance from 22528 (wave „X“) is a countable „five-up“ let`s check the targets to both sides.
If this move from 22528 is a fresh new impulse, the retracement for a wave „2“achieved the 0.618 Fibonacci, found support at the rising green trendline, what could be all of the correction.
If so, a push to new highs is next to occur and may have started @ 23588 yesterday. To establish this view, Hang Seng needs to advance above the area of 24685-24957 on an hourly closing price.
On the larger timeframe, it could be possible, that this move is part of the very first patterns of the resumed downtrend. The decline from 25303- 23685 retraced the 0.5 Fibonacci and is either wave „2“ or wave „a“ of wave „2“ which could develop as a „expanding-flat“!
So a break below the 23685 would strengthen the odds, that a wave „3“ is underway. This must be done with massive volume and a bear-candle1
So I guess, the next hours will be pretty important for the coming week and will bring more clarity to the developing wave patterns!
Have a great week...
ruebennase
Feel free to ask or comment!
Trading this analysis si at your own risk!
HSI/HK50: 25% correction & best level to RELOAD/BULLS(NEW)Why get subbed to to me on Tradingview?
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HSI/HK50: 25% correction & best level to RELOAD/BULLS(NEW)
IMPORTANT NOTE: speculative setup. do your own
due dill. use STOP LOSS. don't overleverage.
🔸 Summary and potential trade setup
::: HSI/HK50 weekly chart review
::: massive H*S setup in progress
::: 25% correction up next
::: runaway BEAR gap previously
::: signals more downside mid-term
::: PT is 19 000 within 4-10 weeks now
::: weak chart and no upside until S/R
::: right now you can only SHORT IT
::: correction can last 4-10 weeks
::: 19 000 best reload BULLS later after corr
::: good luck traders
🔸 Supply/Demand Zones
::: N/A
::: N/A
🔸 Other noteworthy technicals/fundies
::: TD9/Combo update: N/A
::: Sentiment: BEARS
::: Sentiment outlook short-term: BEARISH
Trade war and Hong Kong A short story in the making.
perhaps this will be the first piece of the dominos in this decoupling warfare.
Hang Seng....One more high to come?Hello Traders,
Hang Seng made a high yesterday @25308 and declined since to 24480 today. Today`s decline is the largest one day decline since May 28 it fits well into the harmonic view, that a wave „4“ is done at 24308, which is the 0.382 Fibonacci of the decline since yesterday!
If so to come, hang Seng has one more high to established before it is ready to reverse.
The question would be if this reversal, so it will occur, is a correction at a lower timeframe, or will it be the start of a more prolonged wave of even higher degree? Well, we will see...!
Note the open gap`s at the chart. There is one left by the trading from March 6-9 from 26146-25134 and a second one from February 21-24 (27308-27105)! If both gaps would be filled, it will retrace a 0.786 Fibonacci of the decline from the high @ 29174, the possible wave „2“ area. If it just would fill the first (lower) gap, it probably will do it with a spike to complete the aforementioned scenario!
So, we will wait for the next trading hours to see, how HS will move.
Have a great week....
ruebennase
Feel free to ask or comment!
Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
HSI HK33HKD Will Fib61.8 retrace be able to hold the rally?
prnt.sc
Last post saw prices negating 'the 5th wave' with a strong rally. Thus, we can only attribute it to a series of impulses and corrective waves of Wave 4.
A further updated post mentioned prices taking us up (in this case and currently, pin point to the Fib61.8 of wave 3 as can be seen in the chart).
As the gap between Fib61.8 and Fib78.6 is rather large,we may see prices rise to 25800+ region, reject the strong resistances there (without negating the EW guidelines) and start turning back.
This would still constitute rejection of Fib61.8 (let's wait for candle close of Daily and weekly to see). I would be rooting for a 'not so bullish' looking bar on the weekly TF by week's end.
However, it could also turn back down today as prices has taken out a bunch of SLs placed above the pin bar rejecting a popular Moving average value on the Daily TF.
Let's monitor the situation (especially this evening's FED event) before turning the tune towards bearish.
In short, Let's wait for a good entry and ride the momentum.
Areas/regions to short:
25300 (Fib61.8 retrave of wave 3)
25600 (Rejection of last known support when wave 3 occured)
25800 (Rejection of current Fib ext 127 and other resistances)
HSI - A upward breakoutHang seng index has a bullish trend and real breakout of the range 22750-24850. HSI may test the supporting level 24800 at this moment and continue a upward trend.
HSI towards 28000 level, possible ?Sadly, Hang Seng Index remains in a range bound price action for nearly 3 months since it bottomed out on 19 March 2020.
With the limelight shining at SPX500, DJIA, Nasdaq, etc making new record highs, HSI is still barely creating waves of optimism for its loyal investors/traders.
However, last Friday, it has finally broken out of the resistance level at 24,772 and the next few days closing candles would be crucial to determine if the bullish move is going to continue or if this is a fake breakout, followed by more selling.
Yesterday, I was listening to Mark Douglas, author of Trading in the zone and he mentioned something about Trading Psychology which I would like to share with you all.
He said that many retail traders are unable to accept, feel disappointed, betrayed by the market when they EXPECT it to move a certain way based on the last historical pattern or price action. And that reason is the one that kills many retail traders from making consistent profits. This is unlike the professional traders.
Using HSI chart as an example, if you based on breakout of resistance and buy now, perhaps based on past trends that it has exhibited same patterns before (ie. breakout from resistance and continue higher), it may not play out the way you want it to be. That is to say, nobody can tell you if it will continue to go higher or it is a fake breakout and tumble down.
The difference between going to casino and trading is this :
(Digest this slowly as I think this is important ) - In casino, you have to pay money first (or put down your chips) to see your cards (to reveal the patterns) whereas in trading, you get to see the patterns first (like now, breakout of resistance) and you decide what you want to do (long, wait, sell). Each outcome is random and it is based on probability that out of a series of trades , it will go according to the way you want it to be. That is continue the bullish move.
I have shown you several examples :
Natural Gas :https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NG1!/IbBAlGSl-You-see-but-you-do-not-observe-Arthur-Conan-Doyle/
You can see how frustrating one can be when you trade Natural Gas. The breakout at 2.00 was a false one, trapping early buyers , only to slam them hard with a sell down that closed to a low of 1.596. And it falls back into the bearish trend line.
So, if you expect price action to always obey the rules of break-out from bearish trend line and continue to charge higher, you would naturally be disappointed, feel a sense of betrayal if it goes the other way.
You will let your emotions control you by boycotting to trade Natural Gas again, perhaps, or worse, take on a larger position size to take revenge for the loss you had. Professional traders do not operate like this according to him.
They see a pattern, they recognise it and they trade it accordingly. They do not have any outcome expectation, respecting how the Market wants to operate. But if they are right, they hold on to the profits (ride the trend) and maximise it till it is over (trend reverse). Now, over a series of trades (say 100) , their win ratio might be only 40% (ie, 4 win rates, 6 losing trades) but each win trade gives him double to triple rewards over his risks. The losing trades losses are keep tight as well, always adhering to the 1% to 2% rules, never more than that.
Mathematically, they can be profitable consistently. That also means, returning to the same chart and trade based on what they see when the opportunities present itself. And not doubt if the patterns would produce a certain outcome. By letting go of the outcome and focus on the process, fine tune the money management aspect as precise as possible, all risks are kept to the minimum.
Yes, it does sounds like the professional traders operate like a machine , bearing no emotions and only obey the trade signals that is presented to them. If ascending wedge appears, they short , if descending wedge appears, they long, something like that.
If you are able to grasp this concept and let go of your imposed expectations and held on to your convictions and let the outcomes come what may, then you are on the path to making profits day after day, week after week, month after month. ................
For things to change, I must first change. Jim Rohn
Hang Seng....Big Picture!Hello Traders,
today I`d like to check the Big picture view for Hang Seng.
Let`s start with the weekly!
In January 2018 Hang Seng made its ATH @ 33484 intraday and @ 32601.8 on a closing basis. Since that day the Index is in a corrective mode, which brought him to @ 21139 intraweek low and 22805.1 on a closing basis (weekly close). It bounced since to the upside within a not clear move. To my view, this could be part of an A-B-C move that is not done to the upside, or it can morph into a new impulse, with new ATH`s to come in the weeks and months ahead!
On a long term picture, here daily time frame, you will observe, that HS has touched and overcome the long term resistance line (blue), drawn from the low @ 24540 on October 2018 multiple times, but failed to overcome it on a closing basis to generate a new impulse. This week's trading brought HS to pop above this trendline (blue) and it too popped above the declining trendline (green), which connects the high`s at 29174-28055-24528 with a massive gap to the upside (Ellipse)! This behavior could be the first hint that the correction is done.
If HS is able to rise in the coming week sessions, it could advance above the high @ 24855 and after it can close the open gap, left by trading as of March 11-12`20 (253231-22519)!
But note! The structure from the high @ 29174 on January 21 to 21139 on March 19 is open to different interpretations. So for the bulls, a stop level is@ 22519.7, the low on May 25! Obviously HS has more room to move up, `cause from a technical perspective, the ratios HS has moved to is between the 0.3872 and 0.5 Fibonacci of the latter decline. So, the 0.618 @ 26111 is an open target as long as HS is trading above the green trendline. Only a daily close below this line would alter this view.
For the intraday analysis, I will update the count in the coming 1 or 2 days.
Have a great weekend...
ruebennase
Feel free to ask or comment!
Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
Hang Seng Index Long Set UpBased on market structure and momentum, HSI will head north for quite a time.
Hang Seng or HSI Short opportunityImpulse intra-wave 3 (should be fast and furious??)
Prepare for the 3rd intra-wave down (of the bigger TF's 5th wave).
As expected, market has retraced (upwards) to our earlier analysis to Fib50 levels and missed FIB61.8 by some (for now).
Price gapped up and rose past FIB50 and has not exactly tested FIB61.8 yet. Let's monitor through the Euro and US sessions to see if it does. Hope some people took up the 'dare to LONG' from the previous analysis (can be found in link below) and made some profit.
Currently in a 1/2 (of my total risk amount/percentage) Short position at FIB50 and would be risking another 1/2 Short position at FIB61.8 if it happens.
No change in TP1 levels which is near March 2020 lows and resistances where it'll be in confluence with FIB161.8 ext. I'll be exiting some at the Blue line drawn in the chart at about 21400 level 1st.
*It is important to pay attention to market changes (fundamentals) as the days go by. We know that at times, the 5th (main) wave may fail (ie may not move past the highest/lowest level that wave 3 had created).
**Please refer to chart and link for the different levels (of prices) mentioned in the analysis. Thank you.
Hang Seng outlookPrice continues higher, soon should be approaching resistance zone and 50% fib level as economies around the world are opening and demand returns.
Once that level breaks, we can buy and target the 61.8% level below 26000.
Intraday early entries possible on smaller time frames.
Please support the idea and share your thoughts on HSI!
Good Luck and Stay Healthy!
Hong Kong Stock Index (The Late Sellers are trapped now)View On Hong Kong Stock Index (16 MAY 2020)
It has hit our expected TP level yesterday.
If a trader rushed into HSI shorted over the bad situation gets trapped now.
This is how the market works.
I will be waiting for another entry, possibly short at a higher level.
Possibly near 24,250 regions.
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WOW, 4% profits on 1 single short and repeat that 5x!!!A trader friend of mine was feeling on cloud nine and sharing with me his winning trades of late.
He told me he has been focusing on one single tasks, selling and buying HSI mainly for the last 2 months.
Each short (indicated in blue) earns him an average of 4%. If you look at the chart, you would notice the price action did not goes down to revisit the support line but halfway through, it rebounded (around 23,500). That means, you need to be nimble in such trades with high volatility, especially HSI contracts. Warning - NOT FOR THE FAINT HEARTED.
He further shared that the secret is to stay consistent throughout in the position sizes. That means, for the first contract, say he short 1 contract , he will stick to it for position 2 to 5 as well. If you see position 3-5, had he double or triple his position size, he would make a lot more money (on hindsight).Read article here .
Discipline is key as he educate me on the importance of keeping it sane and following a system.
It could be the other way round as well. By controlling his greed and fear, he has make consistent profits out of this 2 months sideway move in Hang Seng Index. Very impressive , I must say!
Such precise market timing entry requires skills and I would definitely not encourage the newbies to try it. They will likely burn their portfolio faster than they can blink their eyes.
So you see there are hundreds of strategies that a trader can use. Some excel in only forex, others in commodities and some like me dabbling in a bit of everything.
Along the way, you will discover what suits you better in terms of your lifestyle, time to trade, product familiarity, knowledge, etc. This takes time so take your time on the trading playground, you don't have to stick to one. There are more than enough stations for all to play.
