NASDAQ LONGNasdaq 4h 61.8 fib level
Rising channel
bullish movement upwards
Use proper risk management
NAS100 trade ideas
US100 Downtrend Analysis & Key LevelsAfter analysing the US100 chart, the index has been trading within a downtrend channel since Friday, February 21, 2025. After dropping to 19,131, it attempted a recovery but faced strong resistance at 19,957, leading to a decline. As the saying goes, “ Follow the trend—the trend is your friend. ” Given the ongoing downtrend, US100 may continue to decline toward the next strong support level at 18,489.
Ensure you adhere to proper risk management for long-term success.
Happy Trading
NASDAQ WATCH: EYEING SHORT ENTRY ON PULLBACK!🔴 PLANNED SHORT US100 @ 21,404.0
✅ Catalyst: Awaiting retest of 21,404 as resistance after breakdown below 21,500.
🛑 SL: 22,300.0
🎯 TP1: 19,493.2 (1:2.1 R:R)
🎯 TP2: 18,900.8 (1:2.8 R:R)
🎯 TP3: 18,104.1 (1:3.7 R:R)
📊 Chart: Broken support at 21,500; pullback to entry zone would confirm bearish bias.
🌍 Context: Tech stocks face pressure from rising yields and AI profit-taking.
💬 "Waiting for confirmation—would you short this pullback? 👇"
#NASDAQ #US100 #Trading #TradeSetup
Key Notes:
Risk: 1-2% capital if entry triggers.
Patience Pays: Entry only valid on rejection at 21,404.
Strategy: High-reward short if resistance holds.
US100 - Uptrend in Motion with Key Support LevelsOverview:
The US100 is currently trading within a well-defined upward channel, forming higher lows and maintaining a strong bullish structure. The price action suggests that as long as it stays within this channel, the bullish momentum is intact. However, there are key levels to watch if the structure is broken. A break below the channel could lead to a retracement toward an imbalance zone, which may act as a strong support area. If this level fails to hold, a deeper correction could follow.
Uptrend and Higher Lows Indicate Strength
The market is making consistent higher lows, confirming the presence of an uptrend.
The price remains within the ascending channel, suggesting that buyers are in control.
As long as the channel holds, we can expect a continuation of the bullish move with higher highs
Potential Scenarios:
Bullish Continuation Within the Channel
If the price continues to respect the channel structure, we could see further upside movement.
A bounce from the lower trendline of the channel would confirm strength and could lead to new highs.
Retracement to the Imbalance Zone
If the price breaks below the channel, it may find support at the imbalance zone.
This area has previously acted as a reaction point, and buyers could step in again.
A strong bullish reaction from this zone would provide confirmation for a potential move back up.
Bearish Breakdown Below the Imbalance Zone
If the imbalance zone fails to hold, selling pressure could increase.
This could trigger a deeper pullback, leading to a test of lower support levels.
Key Levels to Watch:
Channel Support – If price remains inside, expect continued bullish momentum.
Imbalance Zone – A critical area where price could find support if the channel breaks.
Lower Support Levels – If both the channel and imbalance zone fail, a larger correction could follow.
Conclusion:
US100 remains bullish as long as it trades inside the channel, with higher lows supporting the uptrend. However, traders should monitor the channel breakout, as a move below could lead to a retest of the imbalance zone. If buyers hold this level, the uptrend may resume, but failure to hold could open the door for a further drop.
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NASDAQ INDEX (US100): Important Breakout I spotted a great example of a bullish reversal on 📈US100.
The index formed a double bottom pattern on a 4-hour chart and broke and closed above a resistance line of a descending channel.
There is a positive response on retesting the key support level based on a broken neckline.
It is expected that the index will continue to rise towards the 20,000 / 20180 levels.
NDX Trading-RoadMap
Weekly
• Context: Overall uptrend from 2022 is intact but under pressure as price slipped below some key weekly moving averages and trendline supports.
• Key Takeaway: The bigger picture has not fully turned bearish yet, but momentum has cooled. If the weekly chart remains above ~17,800–18,000, that “long‐term uptrend” viewpoint is still viable.
Daily
• Trend: Lower highs and lower lows (short‐term downtrend). Price is below the 200‐day SMA (~20,300) and also below the 50/100‐day SMAs (~21,000).
• Focus: Watch if price can reclaim the 200‐day SMA (20,200–20,700 zone) on a daily closing basis. That’s a major pivot for a potential reversal to the upside.
• Support: 19,000–19,200 is the near‐term floor; losing that puts 18,400–18,800 in play.
• Resistance: 19,900–20,100 (initial supply), then 20,200–20,700 (200‐day + Fib).
4H (Shorter‐Term)
• Recent Development: A bounce off ~19,150. MACD turned bullish on 4H, RSI improved from oversold.
• Trendline: The steep 4H downtrend line has been broken; price is testing overhead supply near 19,900–20,000.
• Key Focus: Does the 4H momentum carry price above 20,000+? If so, next stops are 20,200–20,700. If it stalls, watch for a return to ~19,200 or lower.
2. Key Levels to Track
1. Immediate Support Zones
• 19,600–19,700: Minor 4H pivot / mid Bollinger band on 4H.
• 19,000–19,200: Major short‐term floor; also a bullish order block from prior lows.
2. Deeper Supports
• 18,400–18,800: Strong demand if 19k fails.
• 17,800–18,000: Critical weekly zone, where the longer‐term uptrend would truly be at risk.
3. Immediate Resistance Zones
• 19,900–20,100: Overhead supply on Daily/4H; first real challenge for bulls.
• 20,200–20,700: Major confluence (200‐day SMA, Bollinger mid band on Daily, Ichimoku lower cloud boundary).
• 21,000–22,200: Larger daily/weekly supply if the index fully recovers.
4. Fibonacci Confluences
• From the larger swing: 50% retracement ~19,893.
• From the smaller daily swing: 23.6% ~19,886, 50% ~20,706.
• Keep an eye if price clusters or reverses around these fib levels.
3. Indicators You’ll Watch Each Day
• Daily Ichimoku: Price below the cloud → short‐term bias still bearish. A daily close back inside/above the cloud (~20,200–20,400) would be a significant bullish sign.
• Daily MACD: Still negative, but flattening. A bullish crossover on the daily could confirm the 4H bounce is turning into a multi‐day uptrend.
• Daily RSI: Hovering near 40–45. If it reclaims 50+, that’s a better sign of daily upside momentum.
• 4H MACD: Already bullish; watch if it remains that way or starts to roll over near resistance.
• 4H RSI: Currently ~45–50 or slightly higher. Over 60 would reinforce short‐term upside.
• Volume / OBV: See if up moves come on higher volume or if OBV slopes upward. That would show genuine buying pressure.
4. Daily Checklist / “If‐Then” Triggers
Use this section as a morning or intraday reference when you see price approaching certain zones.
A) Bullish Attempt
• IF price breaks above ~19,900–20,000 THEN:
• Check for 4H or daily candle close above that zone.
• Confirm if 4H MACD/RSI remain bullish.
• Potential next target: ~20,200–20,700.
• IF price subsequently closes above 20,200–20,300 THEN:
• This reclaims the 200‐day SMA → a bigger shift to bullish.
• Daily RSI likely near or above 50.
• Next target: ~21,000–21,500, with an eye on the 22k supply zone.
• IF 19,600–19,700 holds as support on a pullback, THEN watch for 4H bullish patterns to confirm a bounce. Potential to re‐attempt 19,900–20,000.
B) Bearish Continuation
• IF price rejects ~19,900–20,100 (4H or daily closes back under 19,600) THEN:
• Expect a drift back to test 19,200–19,000.
• Check if 4H RSI crosses below 40, MACD turns down again.
• If that zone fails, 18,800–18,400 is next support.
• IF daily closes below 19,000 THEN:
• The bullish bounce scenario is invalidated.
• Target a deeper move to 18,400–18,800, possibly 18,000 if momentum is strong.
5. What to Avoid
1. Over‐Leveraging: With the index near pivotal levels, volatility can spike. Keep position sizes within your risk tolerance.
2. Chasing Mid‐Zone: If price is between major zones (e.g., 19,600–19,700), entering randomly without a clear signal can lead to whipsaws. Wait for a confirmed break or test of a zone.
3. Ignoring Conflicting Timeframes: Weekly vs. Daily vs. 4H may conflict. If you see a 4H bullish signal but daily is still firmly bearish, manage risk accordingly (e.g., smaller size, quicker profit targets).
6. Risk Management & Positioning
• Stop Placement:
• For short‐term trades, use 4H ATR (~300 points) or place stops just beyond key swing highs/lows.
• For swing trades, consider daily ATR (~400–450 points) to avoid normal intraday noise.
• Targets:
• Set at least two profit objectives. For bullish trades, T1 near 20,200–20,300, T2 near 21k+. For bearish trades, T1 near 19k, T2 near 18.4k.
• Moving Stops to Breakeven:
• Once T1 is reached or a clear pivot forms in your favor, consider moving your stop to entry to lock in any open profit.
7. Potential News/Events That May Override Technicals
• U.S. Economic Data: Watch for major releases (CPI, Fed announcements, Tech sector earnings). These can create sudden volatility that breaks your technical zones.
• Global Sentiment Shifts: If risk aversion hits equity markets broadly, NDX could gap lower through supports. Alternatively, any strong bullish news in major tech names could swiftly break resistances.
8. Weekly Summary Action Plan
1. Check Weekly & Daily:
• Are we still below the daily 200‐SMA (~20,300)? If yes, short‐term momentum is likely bearish unless proven otherwise by the 4H breakout.
• Is the index forming a weekly candle that regains the prior trend channel or 50‐week SMA? That would be a bullish sign.
2. Monitor 19,900–20,100 & 19,000:
• These levels will dictate a lot of the week’s direction. A break above 20,000 on solid volume is your bullish trigger; a fail at 19,900 or a breakdown below 19,000 reaffirms the bearish narrative.
3. Intraday (4H) Observation:
• If price hovers between 19,600 and 19,900, remain cautious until a decisive push emerges.
• Use the 4H MACD/RSI to gauge if momentum is building up (or rolling over).
4. Risk Profile Guidance:
• Aggressive: Trade around 19,600–19,700 with tight stops, aiming for quick breaks.
• Moderate: Wait for 4H closes above or below key pivot zones (19,900–20,000 or 19,200–19,000).
• Conservative: Look for daily closes beyond 20,200 or under 19,000 before committing to positions.
5. Adapt & React:
• If you see a bullish break that fails intraday (price wicks above 19,900 but closes back below 19,600 on a 4H candle), that’s a potential short signal.
• Conversely, if price dips intraday to 19,200–19,300, but the 4H closes back above 19,600, that’s a potential bullish reversal cue.
Nasdaq A major correction in barely a week, and now it's time for the markets to breathe a sigh of relief.
NSDQ100 The Week Ahead 24th March '25NSDQ100 bearish & oversold, the key trading level is at 20090
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Emergence of Bear Flag in Nasdaq The price action seems to be suggesting the formation of Bear Flag Pattern.
The price fell steeply and then gave a pullback, which is getting sold into.
As the channel of flag breaks downwards, the fall may gain momentum.
Further price action will confirm or negate the pattern, it may move cleanly or will have whipsaws.
If the price starts consolidating for long here, rather than breaking downwards, the pattern may fail.
Trade Safe
NDX-Market fall is related to the trendline breakDid you know this market geometry, symmetry:
When a (strong) trendline is broken, the market will fall equal distance or more from the trendline as from the peak to the breakpoint. I have shown example of Nasdaq from the past.
This is also true for the reverse, a falling trendline break can predict the upside target
Hope this is useful in your trading
What it means is you might see a small upside from here, but since its already broken the trendline, it will trap the buyers and then do a hard U turn to the downside. I would wait for a bullish pattern to develop before going in long. Be careful of traps!
KEEP TRADING SIMPLE - NDXGOOD MORNING,
hope all is well. Currently NDX is consolidating. This shows us that there is buying and selling happening throughout the NASDAQ but not confirming the confidence we need in the market. This could be a good spot to capture some short term trades but also riskier. If the market loses confidence this could lead to a sharp decline which will also affect your trades. A good safety zone is always on breakout and then confirmation.
Hanzo | Nas100 15 min Breaks Structure – Confirm the Next Move🆚 Nas100 – The Way of the Silent Blade
⭐️ We do not predict—we calculate.
We do not react—we execute.
Patience is our shield. Precision is our sword.
🩸 market is a battlefield where hesitation means death. The untrained fall into traps, chasing shadows, believing in illusions. But we are not the crowd. We follow no signal but the one left behind by Smart Money. Their footprints are our way forward.
🩸 Bullish Structure Shatters -
Key Break Confirms the Path – 19830
reasons
Liquidity Swwep
liquidity / choch
key level / multi retest before
weekly / monthly zone
🩸 Bearish Structure Shatters
Key Break Confirms the Path – 19700 Zone
our reversal always at key level
even a reversal area is well studded
reasons
Liquidity Swwep
liquidity / choch
key level / multi retest before
weekly / monthly zone
🔻 This is the threshold where the tides shift. If price pierces this level with authority, it is no accident—it is designed. The liquidity pool above has been set, and the institutions will claim their prize. Volume must confirm the strike. A clean break, a strong push, and the path is set.
Watch the volume. Watch the momentum. Strike without doubt
