Technical Analysis of NDQ100: Targets at $22,889.74!Analysis of the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDQ100) – 1W Chart
Hello TradingView Community,
I’d like to share my technical analysis of the NDQ100 on the weekly chart, based on historical price movements and Fibonacci retracements. The index is displaying a clear pattern that suggests a continuation of the uptrend following a correction. Here’s my outlook:
1. Upward Move to $22,889.74
The NDQ100 has seen a strong recovery since the low of approximately $5,692.32 (March 2020) and continues to show bullish momentum. Based on the Fibonacci extension (161.8%) from the last major correction (2022), the next significant target is $22,889.74. This level has been tested multiple times as resistance (see chart), and a breakout seems likely given the ongoing demand for tech stocks. The current price action also shows strong support from the 50-week EMA, which acts as a dynamic support level.
2. Correction of -34% to $15,087.06
Once the NDQ100 reaches $22,889.74, I anticipate a healthy correction. Historically, the Nasdaq has often experienced corrections of 30-40% after strong rallies (e.g., -34.17% in 2022). A -34% correction would bring the index down to approximately $15,087.06. This level aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement zone from the 2020-2025 rally and provides a strong support area, coinciding with previous consolidation zones (2023). Additionally, the 200-week EMA lies within this range, reinforcing it as a potential reversal point.
3. Rise of +121% to $32,923.00
Following the correction, I expect a new bullish wave. From $15,087.06, a +121% increase would take the NDQ100 to $32,923.00. This target is based on the Fibonacci extension (261.8%) of the entire uptrend since 2020, as well as historical patterns where the NDQ100 often reaches new all-time highs after corrections. The long-term trendline (marked on the chart) supports this outlook, as does the ongoing strength in the tech sector, driven by innovations in AI, cloud computing, and semiconductors.
Additional Indicators:
RSI (Weekly): The RSI is currently at 73.5, indicating potential overbought conditions. A pullback after reaching $22,889.74 would bring the RSI into a healthier range (around 50) before the next upward move begins.
Volume: Volume has increased during the recent rally, confirming the strength of the uptrend. A decline in volume during the correction would reflect a typical pattern for healthy consolidation.
Conclusion:
The NDQ100 exhibits a bullish long-term setup with an intermediate target at $22,889.74, followed by a -34% correction to $15,087.06. Afterward, I anticipate a strong rise of +121% to $32,923.00. This scenario offers both short-term trading opportunities (during the correction) and long-term investment potential. As always, keep an eye on macroeconomic factors such as interest rates and geopolitical developments, as these can significantly impact the tech sector.
