Put your Gann away my Apes! SP500 off risk is the guide.Interconnected economies, US off risk -> ASX 200 off risk.
Don't believe me? SP500 crash model aligns nicely to ASX off risk!
So be patient...
SPI200 trade ideas
Observation comparing ASX 200 vs S&P 500. S&P 500 70% crash?I'm new to investing and charting/analysis etc. Decided to compare Australian vs American market long term after looking at ASX long term first. It seems ASX mostly sticks to the regression trend channel I drew and American market was doing similar but has bull runs going far out of channel but rejoins and during GFC joined back to pretty much the same as ASX. Just looking at the trend my instinct is that this pattern would continue and S&P 500 would join back to channel within the next 5 years, which would be about a 65-70% drop from current price. Not sure whether both markets would continue for a while first, but they both look due for correction/crash to me. Interestingly what I thought was a crash last year due to Covid just looks like a correction long term for the long bull run of the S&P 500 which is looking like it's extending above its linear trend for the bull run.
Interested to hear others opinions on why they agree or disagree and when people think the next correction and/or crash will be and how much.
Thanks.
Australian IndexThe Australian index is breaking out of the recent range.
It coincides with the long momentum in China (as you may know, Australia has a lot of dependency with China).
I'll be looking for the pullback.
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AU200AUD_ Long, Trend is your friend "Trend is our friend up until the end." Bullish moves on the AU200 pushing high up to 7300.0 Good Luck
AU200 Index Sell Opportunity AU200
Sell @ 7110
SL 7140
TP 6600
AU200 is in ABC Flat Correction. B wave near 78.6% retracement of A wave .
Low risk sell entry near 7110 with SL 7140/7172
Targte 6600
ASX/200 - NOW IS THE TIME TO BUY AUSTRALIA'S STOCK MARKET INDEX Fundamentals
Now is the best time to buy Australia's stock market index, as Australian companies exporting commodities to the rest of the world during the recent commodity boom, is pushing up the share prices of the biggest mining companies within the country and pushing up the index!!!
Mining companies are seeing their share prices rise due to the booming commodity demand from the re-opening of the global economy as the vaccination rollout is pushed forward, alongside the commodity and precious metals demand for the transition into clean energy.
Commodities
Australia’s commodity export economy is reliant on export demand, especially from China. Therefore with strong global economic growth expectations from fiscal and monetary stimulus, Demand will be strong for Australian exporters, along with Domestic growth, supporting Australian equities.
Key Economic Data To Watch
Chinese & U.S Manufacturing PMI
Correlation - S&P500 & ASX/200 Historically move closely together.
Technicals
A breakout above the recent high 7175 would be another opportunity to enter a long buy position.
Risk Management
ATR Volatility Stop Loss: 13.00%
Risk/Reward Ratio | 3:1
Stop Loss Area: 6188 (925points)
Take Profit: 9301 (2,191points)
Buy the dip?If you are looking to buy the dip from last week's sell off, the chart seems to tell a different story. From what i can see, even though the market has come back up since last week, all it has been doing is testing the 50% fib retracement from last week's high.... It also can't go higher than the midpoint trend line. My guess is that it's prepping for another downside to complete the elliot wave that started a couple of weeks ago from all time high. I could be wrong but the trend always seems to be eerily followed by this index..
Are we heading for a Correction?Looks like the retracement to 50% fib is complete and attempts to get past it today failed. Could be signal for a slight correction - not sure about it going to 200MA in the short term but at least to just under 50MA resistance based on previous trend
XJO - no time to panicThe ASX has just broken its ATH on Monday at 7172 (although I'm told if you add in dividends, we're actually quite a bit higher). However, the moves today (and likely tomorrow judging by the US futures), will likely cause some concerns amongst traders. Its a relatively big move (at least for the last couple of months), but in the scheme of things, today is just 1% down.
From what I'm seeing the XJO just slightly above Monday open and around the high point of Friday. Nothing to worry about here.
In addition, the overall trend is still up and the Bollinger bands are starting to expand again after tightening last week.
TO me the ASX actually looks like it has broken out from a range it was stuck in over most of April, this could just be profit taking or a pullback after a big move yesterday. Although I suspect that it's entirely being driven out of fear arising from the US Markets.
All in all, I think these are pretty bullish markers currently.
I'm watching it closely and I think the telling point will be if the 50 day MA is breached at around 6900.
Anyway, happy trading and if you like this post, check out my blog at www.nickthetraderguy.com.
Cheers,
Nick the Trader Guy
Possible AUSSIE 200 fractal. Might not happen, but this fractal is just a much larger version of the start of the 2010 bull run. More dollar printing ahead. People jumping into equities as there's no incentive holding money in the bank. Just a theory, but interesting to see if it plays out.
AU200AUDAU200AUD look at the caption on the previous post.....same topic, but that video had no audio....this video has audio.
AU200 Final chapter on COILS5.10.21 AU200 Final chapter on COILS: I look at patterns, overall market dynamics (admittedly a vague term), structure, and certain tools that I think of as algorithms of the market...and then I have to make a trade decision: buyer? seller? sit on my hands? I am a discretionary trader using market information ( maybe most of us are to various degrees ). Two different trades could use the same tools ( more or less ), trade the same market and make money: one as a buyer and the other as a seller. All the would need is a different trade location. There is a little more to this, but hopefully you get the idea. THIS IS A GOOD REVIEW OF COILS. I would like to add 2 more things to the video: 1) this was not an easy market to trade because it did NOT have good volatility...and that is why this was a laborious process complicated by lots of "work". In a volatile, I find it much easier to analyze and have a better sense of probability. 2) my explanation on this example is of a market that is expanding out of a coil...which means the market could evolve into an easier market to trade. Always think like a buyer AND a seller, and then decide where you have the edge. You cannot trade what you see if you do not know what you are looking at. You are trading in a market of buyers and sellers...and some of those traders are the "smart money" and some of them are the fast money.
Aussie 200 short term sell setupNeeds a 3rd corrective wave down to complete the flat before more upside. Excellent R:R from here. GL :)
AU200 - SHORT > LONGAny form of support is greatly appreciated and helps motivate to publish more ideas for the community.
OANDA:AU200AUD
Important Price: 7040.6
We want to see price move away from this, confirming our move down to 7005.5 . After we see this move happen, purely from a price action perspective we're able to determine a further sell off or SHORT.
What do we need to keep an eye on?
Pay close attention between 7040.6 and 7005.5 as these prices will help us in staying in a short until Target #1 and Target #2.
Target #1 6918.8
Target #2 6818.9
AUS200, sellHow to use TP!
When the order price breaks down Tp1,
you wait for Tp2 and SL moves to Tp1,
so as to secure earnings.
So with Tp2 to Tp3.
When we publish the closing of a position, you close it.
When the order comes to SL, always
consult with us, do not close the order.
Follow your open positions!
Sell in MAY and go away? ASX 200Looking at this monthly chart the price of the ASX 200 INDEX shows we could have a drop in the market for a few months at least starting in May.
The supertrend monthly is down and the price will have to fight at as resistance if it wants to move higher. However historically it has been rejected and a drop lower occurred before it actually climbed over it.
I have circled the area of the 2008 crash as the comparison is similar. The drop happened and the climb was fast until it was near the supertrend and it tested it twice before the market went lower. It actually took 5 years before the market was higher. I believe we are in a similar boat now.
Aussie 200 one more push upPutting in a corrective structure for more upside. Should retest ~7200 (pre-covid ATH).
