SPI200 trade ideas
THE AUSSIES: WAKE UP GET READY!This is a 12H setup - like the weather - showing the case for a potential reversal south.
Features:
1 - zone of congestion in what looks like a PRZ
2 - an alternate ABCD pattern.
3 - price just below 12H ATR line.
Contrary to the received wisdom ABCD patterns do not have to be a precise pattern with a 61.8 retracement of initial limb. It can be a 78.6. In fact there are a whole range of ABCD patterns. The important issue from my observations is that AB is roughly equal to CD.
As prices on most tradingview charts are mid-point we can't expect high accuracy.
As usual this setup does NOT mean that price has to reverse. There is about a 51% chance of reversal south in my estimation. That leaves 49% chance for continued movement north. Keep that in mind and remember that you can't win without risking a loss. Make it an affordable one.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
AU200 index at Fibonacci levelAU200 index made a big fat pullback to 61.8% and might begin to form a AB=CD pattern.
$XJO Daily (Long & Short strategies)Which way will XJO go???
I feel many investors are on the edge of their seats, whether cash or holding, there's this underlying sense of unease as the markets could swing either way at any moment...
So ask yourself, and answer in the comments below if you like:
a) Will we continue to melt-up and diverge from the economy?
b) Will markets crash back down and catch up with the economy?
c) Will we track sideways, become comfortable not knowing which way its going to swing, then bamm?
e) Are we just waiting for a catalyst, Say Trump catching C-19, or the elections...?
Either way, I have charted a Long & a Short play each with their own patterns, confirmations, supports & resistance.
I would very much like feedback & suggestions as i'm new to charting and keen to learn
Cheers,
Aus200 for shortThis one of the index I've been watching and it's looking good for next week I'll be waiting on weekly candlestick to close.
Choppy and SidewaysThis market has turned to chop in recent sessions.
As the attached daily chart shows; the bulls and bears have no clue who is in control.
Price makes a move higher, only to be crunched back lower in the next session.
This is a market (and similar looking markets) I am avoiding until we get a clearer price action picture and when there is far less risk of being whipsawed out of any trade position.
Until then, if we are looking to trade in these sorts of markets we run the very high risk of getting whipped out even if we pick the correct direction.
ASX200 weakness is squeezing on bulls but will we see a selloffThe ASX200 has rolled over since the last alert and holding lower highs. Price is at an important crossroads now as it holds above 5970 and below 6010. A break up through 6010 will get the bulls excited and lead to a push up to 6200. A hold below 5925 and move down through 5970 will trigger further selling and pressure lower as buyers are forced to close out. We favour the sell side so will be watching for an entry of further weakness but either way, the next few days will be important.
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Australia 200 Index - Convergence sell trade using price actionTaking a look at the Australian 200 Index, we have seen a good potential short term trading opportunity for a Sell.
As you can see from the 15 Minute chart we were watching to see what price did if it reached the 6000.0 level as this could potentially show a rejection here because its a psychological level in general.
This alone is not going to present a high probability trading opportunity so we look to the price action and the structure of the movement getting there that can help give us a clue.
Price was in an ascending channel on the way up which then turned into a more tighter ascending channel inside the larger one. This structure in price showed 3 hits on both of the channels topsides (marked with blue and pink arrows) creating two bearish 3 drive patterns in the process. What increases the probability here is that both of these patterns also converged and lined up with the 6000.0 level.
Once we saw price start to show signs of weakness and move lower we just had to be patient and use the lower inner trend line of the smaller channel as our trigger for the short trade if this trend line gets broken to the downside which occurred nicely.
For trade management we want to place a stop just above the 6000.0 level and the highest high and live with the result while taking profits along the way as price keeps going lower.
AU200 Short(Divergence) and Long (Inverted H & S) SetupOkay so I have been monitoring the indices for some days now and I don't know why I was not trading them. Maybe because it was too expensive
The price action on most of them are so much easier than the currencies and the direction on most of them are very similar.
So how do we take advantage of this trade?
First the short. On the right hand side is the 4hr chart and we have almost a perfect divergence and confirmation is exactly where the price is.
So I am taking the short as soon as the exchange opens. Hopefully without gaps.
Now when you look on the left which is the daily, we can see an inverted head and shoulders set up confirming our 4hr divergence short to test the new higher low.
It has been a while seeing such a perfect setup. Definitely not missing this one. I will update chart once I take the trade
If you agree, please give this a thumbs up and if not, please comment and let me know your thoughts.
Good luck and thanks for stopping by.
AUS200This monthly chart doesn't look good for the Australian index. I am pretty bearish about it for the next couple of months.
POTENTIAL EXPLOIT: Aussies in trouble.The 4H position on the AUS200, could be an advantagious exploit for a controlled affordable loss.
1 - The Aussies tend to follow the DJI and USTech 100.
2 - But there is usually a time lag of between 30 mins and 2 hours.
3 - The DJI did a major leg down but the Aussies barley flinched after a major bull run yesterday.
I've seen it many times, where they catch up after that delay. Then they panic.
As the DJI could be moving south from the base of a head and shoulders pattern (see my posts), then if the Aussies follow south and panic - it could be a nice exploit. Remember your risk controls please.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
XJO - ASX200 a drop bears dream.XJO - ASX200 a drop bears dream.
Crikey!
A long term take on the Index down under.
Undeniably having been in a multi decade bull market, technically, future times appear tougher.
Divergence in the overbought area of the wave oscillator, coupled with an ominous Doom spike back at the GFC March lows of 2009.
The father of finance, Fibonacci, projects a downside golden ratio target of 2016.
Conclusion - If you're long on Aussie stocks, ya stuffed mate! OI.
ASX200 Sighting June Lows – 5800Hello Fellow Trader!
The US500 and Nasdaq continued their falls and finishing in the red on Friday. The ASX200 also had two consecutive lower low days breaking slicing below 6000 to finish the week also in the red.
We could see slight recovery back into the 6000 which is key for the advance, or rejection indicating falls the ASX200 has not seen since June.
Key Points:
- Price holding below the 200 EMA
- Price holding below the 50 EMA
- Fibonacci 50% support cluster with target 1 (April Low – June High)
- Price holding above the 50 EMA
- RSI could break trend and range simultaneously for momentum
Key Levels:
Support – 5800, 5700, 5610
Resistance – 200 EMA, 50 EMA, 6000
Entry Zone:
Optimal entry provides the greatest reward to risk ratio while supporting entry is a zone for reversal signals.
Optimal Entry – 5925
Supporting Entry – 5890
Candle Reversals for entry
- Bearish Shooting Star
- Bearish Engulfing
- Bearish Dark Cloud Cover
The Risk:
As traders, it is your job to mitigate the risk and only trade structures that provide high probability and great reward to risk ratios.
If you are not comfortable with defined exit levels, experiment with Moving Averages to help set solid exit rules to protect your capital.
IF: Price breaks above level 6000 and violates 200 EMA– this would suggest the structure is not in our favour and would be wise to reduce exposure or close the trade until a solid signal gives us reasons to re-enter.
Reward / Reward Targets:
Optimal Entry 5925 – Target 1 5700 = 3x Reward to Risk
Optimal Entry 5925 – Target 2 5610 = 4x Reward to Risk
Supporting Entry 5890– Target 1 5700 = 1.5x Reward to Risk
Supporting Entry 5890 – Target 2 5610 = 2.2x Reward to Risk
