US-market correction ahead of us?Discussed is our weekly update of the risk model for the US market.
Price action of the major US market indices and relevant indicators advise caution.
See our homepage for daily updates on trading recommendation for the major US-market indices and ETF's:
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US2000 trade ideas
Bearish RUT, hop in 3x ETF TZA, Bearish GartleyUnderestimated previous confluence area, but HODL because RUT finally dropping and will hit lower lows. Look at current trend and it is obvious that history will most likely repeat itself. Sell when RUT RSI hits below 30. Do not hold too long or will get burnt. Bearish Gartley proving to be correct and trend will very likely continue down much further for following day(s)
New trading Strategy upgrade -Hi traders, this is my personal trading idea only. Please give an AGREE/ LIKE, my trading strategy is Price Auction - using Chart only, your comments are highly welcome. My chaos drawing is not to predict and guess the further, it is my plan where we are on the chart and how we shall trade on what we see. Good luck guys.
Russell 2000 - Elliott waveIt looks like we are about to enter a 5th wave with a target of 3600
but now we are still in the 4th corrective wave . we have to make 5 waves up to confirm resuming the uptrend
FYI : I am not a professional analyst and those are just a personal ideas to get more experience , your feedback is highly appreciated
Russell 2000 at a key point. Where is the market going next?The Russell 2000 (RUT) is at the lower support area of a bound trading range since February. Two key indicators already broke down this week. 1) The index dipped below its 200d moving average today. 2) The index is made up of small-caps, and the ratio of performance between small and large caps broke down this past week as well.
It's either time for small-caps to head back up, or this could be the start of a lower move.
Bullish: The US dollar strengthening for small caps is bullish. The 10y Treasury Yield remains low, keeping borrowing rates low for small, but growing companies. Employment data continues to strengthen, showing companies of all sizes, but especially small-caps across recovery sectors are hiring back employees to meet demand.
Bearish: The Fed is talking about a possible start to tapering this year. There are indications that the economic recovery is slowing. Retail Sales were lower than expected. Manufacturing Indexes showed a slow down this week. Small-caps are the most sensitive to changes in direction for the economy.
Are we in Post Melt-Up phaseMy answer to this question is Yes..!
It is highly likely that we were experienced the Melt-up in Small caps between March 2020 and February 2021 in the small caps!
The sharpest move (+144% in 12 months) in the past 23 years!
What Is a Melt-Up?
A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly by a stampede of investors who don't want to miss out on its rise, rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.
Gains that a melt-up creates are considered to be unreliable indications of the direction the market is ultimately headed. Melt-ups often precede meltdowns.
What is the Price Rate Of Change (ROC) Indicator
The Price Rate of Change (ROC) is a momentum-based technical indicator that measures the percentage change in price between the current price and the price a certain number of periods ago. The ROC indicator is plotted against zero, with the indicator moving upwards into positive territory if price changes are to the upside, and moving into negative territory if price changes are to the downside.
The indicator can be used to spot divergences, overbought and oversold conditions, and centerline crossovers.
The Price Rate of Change (ROC) oscillator is an unbounded momentum indicator used in the technical analysis set against a zero-level midpoint.
A rising ROC above zero typically confirms an uptrend while a falling ROC below zero indicates a downtrend.
When the price is consolidating, the ROC will hover near zero. In this case, it is important traders watch the overall price trend since the ROC will provide little insight except for confirming the consolidation.
Daily Charts in the past 7 months: Pure sideway!
Weekly Chart:
Monthly Chart:
Conclusion:
If you have small caps in your portfolio, define your emergency exit plan..! It will be needed soon!
Reference Article:
www.investopedia.com
www.investopedia.com
TryAs you remember good day starts with a good trade, folks🔥
There is an interesting formation on US2000 .
Flag pattern on this.
The price is in a longterm Bullish trend , so this formation can be another confirmation to go long🔥
The price bounced from support and resistance level multiple times.
So follow the chart and look for the breakout carefully.
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And always remember: "we don't predict, we react".
Bullish Triangle on the Russell 2000The Russell 2000 small cap index led the market between November and March. Now following a healthy period of digestion, it may be coming back to life.
The main pattern on today’s chart is the series of higher lows since July 19. Combined with the resistance line around the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), that’s a bullish ascending triangle.
Next, the market internals. TradeStation data shows that 910 members of the Russell 2000 are now above their 50-day SMAs, more than tripling in less than a month. The same measure for the Nadaq-100 has slipped from about 73 to 64 in the same period.
RUT has also been finding support this week at its 8- and 21-day exponential moving averages (EMA). A bullish cross is just now occurring on those two lines, which could draw trend followers if it persists. (It also gives a potential risk-management zone.)
Finally, MACD has been steadily rising -- unlike the Nasdaq-100 .
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