US200USD: RUT SIDEWAYS then CORRECTION commingExpect Russel to trade sideways until other indices align then Correction as shown
US2000 trade ideas
Russell shortWe are about to hit the 161 fib on a AB=CD pattern alert set on the 161, keep an eye on momentum since the hourly still looks strong
RUT Bullish Momentum CluesThe current Russell 2000 (RUT) rally from the 10/30/20 bottom is the largest and longest spike since the start of the secular bull market in March 2009.
That earlier spike was the kickoff of the secular bull market. The current spike is probably a speculative blow off top. Sharp moves up in small cap stocks is typically
a phenomenon of late stage bull markets. Speculators after months of upside action are now comfortable taking additional risk.
RUT rally could continue for several weeks. Most of the time price will peak on one or more RSI bearish divergences. Since the start of the RUT bull market, rallies have ended six out of the last eight times with bearish weekly RSI divergences.
Bullish seasonal factors and Fibonacci price/time relationships provide additional bullish evidence for US stocks and are examined in my website. Bears beware, its been
very difficult shorting since April 2020, this situation could continue for at least several weeks.
Mark
THE WEEK AHEAD: GDXJ/GDX, XLE, KRE, SLV, IWM/RUTEARNINGS:
No options liquid underlyings announcing earnings this week that meet my criteria for a volatility contraction play, although ORCL (24/31) and WORK (2/33) both announce and could be played in some other way.
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE THE JANUARY AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE:
GDXJ (14/41/12.1%)
XLE (25/41/10.4%)
KRE (23/40/10.6%)
SLV (28/41/10.2%)
GDX (15/38/10.2%)
EWZ (15/39/10.0%)
BROAD MARKET EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE THE JANUARY AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE:
IWM (23/28/7.1%)
QQQ (20/27/6.3%)
DIA (15/21/5.2%)
SPY (12/20/4.8%)
EFA (17/24/4.4%)
Pictured here is a RUT January 22nd 1655/1705 short put vertical with the short option leg camped out at the 16 delta. Markets are showing wide in the off hours, but look to get at least 10% of the width of the spread out of any play, with the preference being to put something on in a down day with the accompanying rise in volatility and expansion of the "probability cone." A smaller alternative would naturally be in IWM, where I'd look to get at least .50 out of January 22nd 162.5/167.5 5-wide.
For those who like to swim naked, the IWM January 22nd 162.5 (15 delta) and was paying 1.91 as of Friday close (1.15% ROC at max as a function of notional risk; 8.93% annualized).
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On the IRA/retirement account front, I'll be looking to programmatically deploy buying power in broad market over medium to long-term time frames over the next several weeks and then turn to focusing on shorter term plays, so you're likely to see some apparently oddball things in my ideas feed that won't make a ton of sense looked at in isolation and won't be for everybody not only due to buying power effect, but due to duration. I'm using SPY here, but one can certainly do something similar in another of the cheaper (a relative term) exchange-traded funds with high liquidity that will allow you to ladder out in time without giving up too much to lack of liquidity in longer duration.
Essentially, it will look like a short put ladder, but with the rungs put on over time in increasing duration in similarly delta'd strikes or in strikes which pay a certain ROC %-age relative to the strike price (e.g., the SPY February 19th 321 short put, paying 3.27; the March 19th 300 short put, paying 3.02; the April 16th 283, paying 2.87, etc.), after which the individual rungs will be separately managed.
Although this isn't particularly buying power efficient relative to defined risk spreads, I'm shooting for a setup that is relatively set and forget running into retirement where I don't necessarily have to pop my portfolio open on a daily (or even weekly) basis to manage trades, but can go for fairly lengthy periods of time without having to touch or manage rungs and with modest expectations as to ROC %-age.
As a "quasi-cash" option, I'll also continue to deploy idle buying power in things like HYG puts (See Post Below) just that I'm not earning 0% of 0 and where I'm comfortable taking on shares and selling call against. Point in fact, that is probably not a bad stand-alone setup for an extremely conservative investor who isn't keen on taking broad market bullish assumption positions at all-time-highs where a number of people are calling "bubble" week after week. That being said, even this type of setup isn't riskless, as we saw in the March "sell everything" dip. At some point, you will potentially have to take on shares ... .
RUT Russell - bearish butterfly from 1885 ATH?
reaching 1885 ATH today after weeks bulls rally
85+% of Russell stock above 200MA - also ATH
possible butterfly pattern
drop back to 1820 levels over next few days is in play
US2000USD: RUSSELL 2000 5H-WAVE COMPLETEDAS SOON AS the DOLLAR's FALL starts to slow DOWN .... Get ready for the BIG-BOYS to Bail (take profits) on the MARKET
Russell 2000 short - monthlymain chart features are listed
- panic monthly buying candle
- bearish RSI divergence
- resistance RSI
I'm always early trying to call tops but here we go again. Lots of factors lining up nicely for a reversal.
Russell 2000 - Rising Wedge HeadfakeOnce the price re-enters the wedge, the head fake will be complete. Target for breakout is the bottom of the wedge.
Disclaimer: This is my personal opinion. This is not advice. Trading involves risk.
1-month correlation between Momentum and Small Caps vs. Big Caps1-month correlation between Momentum and Small Caps vs. Big Caps, ie, Russell 2000 vs Russell 1000 indexes
RUT End Of Week Evaluation*** Comments prior to evaluation summary ***
APTR Bands Range: 1713.51 - 1857.17
Orion:4Sight Range: 1767.92 - 1937.91 (Mean: 1852.92)
Trend Analysis:
The current trend is defined by the last price and it's relationship to specific moving averages.
Check the MA strategy for more specific suggestions.
Weekly: The relationship to the primary trend MA is bullish. The price in relationship to the other averages suggest long positions
Price Action:
Weekly: The average price range currently is 71.83 points/ticks/pips. Prices are currently 3.07x the normal trading range.
Prices currently are trending and not in consolidation.
Standard Deviation
Weekly: Standard deviation suggests a range from 1699.37 to 1871.31 for the following week.
Calculated Price Strength:
The strength of the trend in conjunction with specific averages.
News announcements can change the strength and directional attitude.
Weekly: Trend strength suggests trading between a range of 1785.34 to 1884.61 for the following week.
Price Projection:
The price action has generated a projection signal for the underlying.
Weekly: Price currently displays (if strength and attitude continue) a desire to move toward 1879.48
If strength and attitude continue, it could take between 4 to 8 trade periods (weeks) to reach the projection.
Indicators Summary.
A collection of technical indicators whose directional attitude has been summarized.
Weekly: Out of the cumulative indicators monitored, 100.00% are bullish, 0.00% are bearish, 0.00% are neutral
The CCI indicator trading strategy suggest the following:
Weekly: Very strongly bullish - long entries.
Confirmation Signal
6 indicators combined to confirm entry/exit.
Weekly Bullish - Open directional trades
RUT Russell 2000 - H&S 3tops coming - UP before DOWN?
top levels defense with some major sell offs just before a market close and afterhours
possible H&S overnight with a SELL OFF during day
more red days are most likely coming soon - more in an attached analysis
RUT Russell possible overnight big DROP 6%!
once we break 200MA from ATH levels nasty drop could be super QUICK
RUT Russell - possible big short next days & long term vision
so far ATH head is 1817 and major H&S still in play
double top 1817 and 1809 is finished and reversal trend should be here, another smaller H&S could be forming with the 1809 head
we could have a sharp and quick DROP to 1540 levels next days (unless major steep UP trend continues following days!)
update of main dates for DROPS in January/April in the chart
Russel 2000 Bull Flag Long OpportunityRussel 2000 broke out of bull flag, will look for bullish continuation.
FISHY moves in the STOCKMARKETHey tradomaniacs,
Current markets mood is harder to indentify as we see the same cashflow like we`ve seen with the first vaccine-wave this year.
Comparing RUSSELL 2000 and SPX500 it looks like we see a flow out of big companies into the small-cap-section.
This is very weird as the small businesses were those who suffered the most during the COVID-Lockdown in the USA.
Does the market expect a BOOM of these companies with the upcoming vaccine?
There is one fact:
More than 50% of these companies listed in RUSSELL are not making any profit 👉 They are the "zombies" of the market who are only able to survive due to financial injections by the central bank.
These odd moves are forcing me to trade a bit less as I don`t think that institutional traders are willing to buy stocks of companies that only just able to buoy up.
Sell off coming soon?
LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =)
Peace and good trades
Irasor
Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me.
Any questions? PM me. :-)
OPENING (IRA): RUT DECEMBER 24TH 1450/1500 SHORT PUT VERTICAL... for a 5.00 credit.
Notes: Selling 45 days 'til expiry premium in the broad market instrument with highest 30-day implied. Manage at 50% max, 2 x credit received.
Russ2000 mooningRuss2000 recover at a much more rapid pace than SPY from Sept, broke out from its October high and Feb highs before COVID-19
200SMA has flattened and 50/100SMAs are both sharply pointing up, expecting w/ the PFE vaccine news, we can expect a very bullish run from Russ2000, outperforming the other 3 major indices.
