DXY will be fine (95)The dollar index expects to fall into the 95 area. Regardless of who wins tomorrow, the dollar will fall until 2025. The new government's realization of how sad everything is now will delay the process of a sound market. Vote!
USDX trade ideas
USD | USD INDEX Weekly FOREX Forecast: March 10 - 14thIn this video, we will analyze the USD through the USD INDEX (DXY). We'll determine the bias for the upcoming week, and look for the best setups to take.
The USD is bearish, and there is plenty of economic news coming up this week. Should be plenty of opportunities from Tues through Friday.
Short term bullishness, in the form of a pullback, is potentially there. But longer term bearishness is likely to continue.
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Dollar $ Dump Is the TVC:DXY headed for 4th quarter 2024 levels? The TVC:DXY continues its downward spiral in spectacular fashion as tariff talk and continued global war footing dominate.
USDCAD SELLING OPPORTUNITIESIn February, price has shown a large rejection at 1.48000 phycology level.
The last time we see price at this level was in March 1, 2000. We see this on the monthly time frame.. We also see some sort of bearish retracement to 61.8% Fibonacci level. If this level holds on weekly that means a new bearish move have started for USDCAD and this will be the first Lower lower.. for this new week, one will need to watch price actions on the lower timeframes(h4,h1) for bearish confirmations for shorting opportunities.
however, we are also open to buying opportunities back to 1.48000, should price fail to break 1.43000 phycological level and start giving us more higher highs..
DXY Potential Reversal from Key Support | Buy SetupThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has formed a Head and Shoulders pattern on the 4-hour timeframe, signaling a potential bearish trend. After breaking the neckline, DXY has dropped significantly and is now approaching a major demand zone (103.50-104.00), where buying pressure could emerge.
Key levels to watch:
Support Zones: 103.50 - 104.00 (Strong demand area)
Resistance Zones: 105.50 - 106.50 (Previous support turned resistance)
Trade Idea:
Entry: Around 103.50 - 104.00
Target: 106.00 - 106.50
Stop Loss: Below 103.00 (to avoid further downside risk)
Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:3
Impact on Forex Pairs:
If DXY moves up, currency pairs with USD as the base currency (e.g., USD/JPY, USD/CAD, USD/CHF) will likely move higher. On the other hand, pairs where USD is the quote currency (e.g., EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD) will likely move lower as the dollar strengthens.
Conclusion:
If price holds at the 103.50-104.00 support, we may see a short-term bullish move towards 106.00-106.50. However, a break below 103.00 could lead to further downside pressure. Traders should also monitor major USD pairs for potential trade opportunities.
DOLLAR GAINS BUYER AMID NFP BAD DATA??Dollar seems on hold in it's 2.618 fibonacci support after NFP data released. Will it go higher next week?
I see dollar still waiting next data release. I mention JOLTS Job Opening & CPI which both of them crucial in current context of US macro-economy. Strong job opening & CPI means investor and retail trader must be no worries about US macro-economic despite concern about trade war. Otherwise, weak job opening & CPI means labor market and inflation continue cooling down. It will push THE FED to give clear path about their plan for future Interest Rate.
So, dollar could make sideways movement (or even gain buyer) but overall still in bearish momentum. Dollar still driven by concern of trade war and if job opening comes weaker than expected, it could gives more power to seller.
Dollar idex is ready to drop next week are you ready ?This week, the market was slow with little movement. However, starting next week, keep an eye on the dollar. The order flow is showing a strong sell, and the daily chart reveals an FVG that indicates a sell from this level. Additionally, the current low aligns with the monthly FVG level. Trading next week should be exciting!
Bearish week forecast on DXYWeekly candle showing strong bearish candle. Potential OHLC
Daily order flow is bearish. Potential internal range to external range move
4h similar to daily, order flow is bearish. Potential internal range to external range move
DXY bearish pressureThe dollar index is slightly defensive. The result is a break of the ascending trend line. For now, the dollar is supported by the EMA 50 moving average. If the index falls below the moving average line, the index would retreat below 107.00. A potential target is 106.00 on the EMA200 daily moving average.
DXY - 2025 Yearly Outlook - Bearish..."When" not "If"This is a rough yearly outlook for the DXY. I will be updating this as the year goes on (I'll update this idea monthly as I check it).
Right now there is TONS of sell side liquidity open on the DXY, and price may want to attack it.
It's important to monitor its behavior around the 110-112 mark.
I'm bearish on this index overall (1-4 year outlook), but it could definitely have a semi bullish 2025.
SCENARIOS
-If we get a strong breach above that would imply a new 10-year high potential.
-If we hit the 110-112 mark and reverse down under 108 within 30-days of hitting that mark, we are probably going to make a run for sell side liquidity, with the first target being 99.50.
That's all for now.
-Gio
...
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DOLLARDOLLAR AT 103,570 is expected to show support ,today economic data are heavy.
the Impact of Fundamental Data on DXY and The upcoming data releases, including Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change, and Unemployment Rate, can influence the US Dollar Index (DXY) in several ways:
Stronger-than-Expected Job Growth:
Impact: If the Non-Farm Employment Change exceeds the forecast of 159,000, it could lead to a stronger DXY. A robust labor market might reduce expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, supporting the USD.
DXY Reaction: The DXY could rise as investors expect less monetary easing, potentially boosting bond yields and the USD.
Weaker-than-Expected Job Growth:
Impact: If the employment data is weaker than expected (e.g., fewer than 135,000 jobs added), it might lead to a decline in the DXY. This could increase expectations of a rate cut by the Fed, weakening the USD.
DXY Reaction: The DXY could fall as investors bet on potential monetary policy easing, leading to a decrease in the USD's value.
Neutral or Expected Job Numbers:
Impact: If the data aligns closely with forecasts (around 159,000 jobs added), the reaction might depend on smaller details like revisions to previous data or wage growth.
DXY Reaction: The DXY might experience minimal movement if the data is as expected, but any surprises in wage growth or revisions could influence its direction.
FOMC Members' Speeches:
Impact: Comments from FOMC members, including Fed Chair Powell, can provide insights into future monetary policy decisions, potentially influencing market expectations and the DXY.
Consumer Credit Data:
Impact: A significant change in consumer credit could reflect consumer spending trends and economic health, potentially influencing the DXY.
Current Market Conditions:
The DXY is near a four-month low due to concerns about economic growth and tariff policies. Strong employment data could help stabilize or boost the DXY, while weak data might exacerbate its decline.
Trading Strategy:
Long DXY: If employment data is strong and FOMC members signal a hawkish stance, traders might favor long positions on the DXY.
Short DXY: If data is weak or if FOMC members indicate a dovish stance, traders might consider short positions on the DXY.
DXY filling gaps downward - expect correction soonLooks like the dollar is filling GAPs as the chart shows. Last 2 are at 102.826 and 101.601.
Follow Fibs for areas of reaction where we may get a correction.(yes fibs go beyond 1.618)
Look for the correction very soon, if we have one, to go as high as 105.5-ish. It should NOT correct higher than that if we are going much lower...according to Elliott Wave I'm assuming we are in the 3rd wave.
Watch for the trend(price) to move toward the blue line as an area/direction while it's correcting.
Will the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Report Be Optimistic?At 8:30 AM EST today, the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report will be released, offering key insights into the U.S. labor market. This report will cover Average Hourly Earnings, Employment Change, and the Unemployment Rate, helping investors and policymakers assess the economy’s current state. Let’s break down the expectations and potential impacts.
What to Expect from the NFP Report?
The U.S. economy is expected to have added 160,000 jobs in February 2025, improving from January’s 143,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain steady at 4%, signaling stability in the job market. However, wage growth is expected to slow, rising 0.3% month-over-month, compared to January’s 0.5%, the highest since August 2024. On an annual basis, wage growth is forecasted to hold at 4.1%.
Despite these stable projections, economic uncertainty is increasing. The election initially brought optimism among investors and major corporations, with hopes that the new government would introduce tax cuts, balance inflation with policy rates, and create an environment conducive to business expansion and job growth. However, the current situation presents a different picture. Unpredictable tariffs, frequent policy shifts, and regulatory scrutiny on functioning organizations are shaking investor confidence. The U.S. dollar is experiencing a decline as uncertainty continues to grow.
Trade Policies and Market Uncertainty
Concerns over President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs are adding to economic instability, contributing to a decline in the U.S. dollar since the new president officially took office on January 20. Investors are growing wary, as shifting policies create an unpredictable business environment.
A recent decision to temporarily exempt Canadian and Mexican goods under the U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) from newly imposed 25% tariffs has added another layer of uncertainty. These tariffs, which took effect earlier this week, are raising concerns about their potential impact on economic growth and global trade.
Looking Ahead
The NFP report will play a crucial role in determining market sentiment and economic direction. Investors, businesses, and policymakers will closely analyze the data to assess the labor market’s strength and the broader economic outlook. With ongoing policy changes and global trade uncertainties, all eyes are on how employment trends unfold and how businesses navigate the shifting economic landscape.
Stay tuned for further updates as the data is released.
DOLLAR DXYImpact of Tomorrow's Data on DXY and USD Trade Directional Bias
The upcoming data releases, including Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, and speeches by FOMC members, can significantly influence DXY and DXYtrade directional bias. Here's how these data points might impact the markets:
Data Releases:
Average Hourly Earnings (m/m):
Forecast: 0.3%
Previous: 0.5%
Impact: Lower-than-expected earnings growth could suggest a slowing economy, potentially weakening the USD. Conversely, higher earnings could support the USD by indicating wage inflation and potentially leading to higher interest rates.
Non-Farm Employment Change:
Forecast: 159,000
Previous: 143,000
Impact: A stronger-than-expected jobs report could boost the USD by indicating economic resilience. A weaker report might lead to a decline in the USD as it could signal economic slowdown.
Unemployment Rate:
Forecast: 4.0%
Previous: 4.0%
Impact: No change in the unemployment rate is expected, but any deviation could influence market expectations of future monetary policy.
FOMC Member Speeches:
Impact: Comments from FOMC members can provide insights into future monetary policy decisions, influencing market expectations and potentially impacting the USD.
Consumer Credit m/m:
Forecast: $15.6 billion
Previous: $40.8 billion
Impact: A significant change in consumer credit could reflect consumer spending trends and economic health, potentially influencing the USD.
Departments Responsible for Data Releases:
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS): Responsible for releasing employment data, including Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.
Federal Reserve: FOMC members' speeches are part of the Federal Reserve's communication strategy.
Federal Reserve: Also responsible for Consumer Credit data.
BLS: Average Hourly Earnings data is also released by the BLS.
Impact on EUR/USD:
Strong US Data: If the employment data and earnings growth are stronger than expected, it could lead to a stronger USD, potentially weakening AUDUSD,USDJPY,GBPUSD,USDZAR,USDCAD,EURUSD
Weak US Data: Conversely, weaker-than-expected data might lead to a decline in the USD, supporting EUR/USD,AUDUSD,USDJPY,GBPUSD,
Trading Strategy:
Short EUR/USD.AUDUSD,GBPUSD ,: If US data is strong and FOMC members signal a hawkish stance,
Long EUR/USD,AUDUSD EURUSD: If US data is weak .
Long for the stronghold of King DollarDollar fled crazy when Trump is taking in control. He wants weak dollar, but will the Fed let him achieve his goal??
This is a long term trade advice, I expect dollar will get strong before summer and remain strong towards the end of the year
Key Dollar Upward reversal - beginning 6th March
long term weekly timeframe break of structure to the upside. Price has retraced to fill fair value at the 61.8 retracement. Will rebound up off of the longterm trendline. Entry at the key level with a price action signal. Looking for an hourly break of structure and a 4 hourly engulfing. Happy hunting... TVC:DXY
DXY Trading Journal March 7 Analysis DXY Trading Journal
March 7 Analysis
Price has shown strong willingness to seek lower prices. Showing a willingness to come to the FVG pointed out by ICT which it rebalanced in Thursday’s delivery.
Take aways from tape reading this were when there is a liquidity run in play Price showed no signs of retracement to the session 50 level. It shouldn’t if the underlining premise is bearish.
I suspect the FVG failed.
Today is NFC. Will Price seek lower after 3 strong days of dropping. I will wait to see what price does at the previous days session 50 level. We coming up to the .70 level on the HTF. On the HTF this looks like it could be a measured move. Price broke out of the tight range bound after trading in it for a few years, so will it break sept lows and go lower. We are 3 months into a seasonal trend of bearish conditions.
I note the timing of this drop the week Trump spoke to congress. HMMM
Falling towards overlap support?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 103.53
1st Support: 102.36
1st Resistance: 105.62
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The US Dollar Index is Decreasing - Positive for Cryptocurrency#DXY #Analysis
Description
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+ The Dollar Index has breached its support level and is now trading below it, moving toward the next support zone around $100.
+ This development is positive for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market, as the US Dollar Index typically declines during a bull run.
+ In the long term, I anticipate further declines, potentially reaching the $90 range.
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Enhance, Trade, Grow
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DXY Vs TRUMPDXY Vs TRUMP
Indicator DXY on the MONTHLY/ Dates ATH / Trump at the white house
BTC ATH - Bull 2017 - DIC
BTC ATH - Bull 2021 - NOV
BTC last ATH - Bull 2025 - DIC
Beginning Trump´s 1st period- JAN 2017
Beginning Trump´s 2nd period- JAN 2025
DXY SWING LONG|
✅DXY is approaching a demand level of 103.500
So according to our strategy
We will be looking for the signs of the reversal in the trend
To jump onto the bullish bandwagon just on time to get the best
Risk reward ratio for us
LONG🚀
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
DXY will likely bounce here.#dxy the USD Index has dumped , oversold and looks likely wants to bounce here. Bouncing here will give the bullish retest to TVC:DXY .
While #VIX the Volatility Index is very strong now, an impulsive move of #dollarindex will surely damage markets sooner or later. This' not a very short term strategy but short / mid term one. Lowering risky positions will be for your goodness.
Not financial advice. Stay safe.
