downtrendIt is expected that the trend change will take place at the current resistance level and we will witness the beginning of the downtrend. A break of the support trend line will be a confirmation of the downtrend.
USDX trade ideas
DXY - Rally due?This count suggests that DXY may be due a 4th wave correction in an ongoing and deep C wave down. This could also coincide in a correction for Gold which is perhaps due a rest.
USD StrengthGiven the current technical indicators and fundamental backdrop, the DXY may continue to face downward pressure in the short term. However, strong economic fundamentals and potential shifts in Federal Reserve policy could provide support, leading to a stabilization or potential rebound.
USD Tests Long-Term Support + Weekly OversoldLast week I highlighted the oversold reading on the weekly DXY chart. While bulls didn't exactly put in a massive showing it was also one of the first green weekly bars in a month.
Notably, the monthly April bar looks very bearish but the bulk of those losses were in the first 11 days of the month and last week, on Monday, a massive spot of support came into play at the 38.2% retracement of the 2008-2024 major move. This is confluent with a trendline projection, connecting 2001 and 2020 highs, which had come in to hold support back in July of 2023. This adds context to the possibility of a pullback in the USD and this meshes with the 1.1500 resistance test in EUR/USD. - js
check the trendGiven the index's behavior within the current resistance range, possible scenarios have been identified.
As long as the index does not consolidate above the resistance range, the downward trend is likely to continue.
DXY - Still survive on it Bullish ChanelThe dollar index is currently still in a bullish channel. This shows that there is still a fairly large possibility of reversing and making an upward movement,
As history showed us that 120 is DXY current target.
IMP update for all Forex Traders Expect the Dollar Index (DXY) to appreciate in the near future. However, a further decline into the green highlighted region is possible before this upward movement. The green zone represents a potential key reversal area. Monitor the following currency pairs for trading opportunities if the DXY begins to climb:
BUY - USDCAD, USDCHF, USDSGD;
SELL - EURUSD, GBPUSD
DXY TrendlinesUnless it brakes the downtrend with a weekly candle close it should bounce back up in long run. should be closely monitored since it will give us a lot of information about current market direction. i expect bouncing back up but we will see.
Is the US Dollar Preparing for a Bullish Comeback?The DXY is currently maintaining a bullish setup amid trade negotiations, election developments, and anticipation of key leading U.S. economic indicators this week.
An inverted head-and-shoulders formation is visible on the 4-hour time frame. A decisive catalyst and a breakout above the 100.00 and 100.30 levels are needed to confirm a more sustained bullish bounce from multi-year lows, with targets at 102.00, 103.30, and 104.70 — reversing recent strength in major global currencies.
On the downside, a breach of the 97.00 level could trigger a decline toward the lower boundary of the long-term uptrend channel established since 2008, aligning with the 92.00 zone, and potentially lifting gold and major currencies globally.
Several key events this week could challenge or reinforce the current bullish setup amid ongoing Trump–China trade negotiations:
U.S. Advance GDP & Core PCE — Wednesday
BOJ Rate Decision & U.S. ISM PMI — Thursday
U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls — Friday
Mega Cap Earnings — Wednesday/Thursday
While long-term signals remain bearish, short-term charts suggest a potential bullish recovery, with trade negotiations likely to tip the balance.
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
Dollar indexKey Insights:
Potential short-term bearish retracement incoming (Wave 5)
Long-term bull trend remains , Wave (4) zone occurs.
Ideal spot for smart traders to prepare setups using Elliott + supply/demand confluence.
DXY Long to 100 off bullish news from Trump
1. Current Data and research
Macro Regime
Business cycle
- moving into recession territory. S&P is down from 6125 to 4842 at its lowest. That's a 21% drop - this crosses the 20% drop threshold.
Inflation
- Headline 2.4%. Slightly above 2% target. Core PCE is at 0.4%. This is higher than expected.
Monetary Policy
- Still at high interest rate levels of 4.5%. There's more room for cuts than hike in general. However, Tariffs is a spanner in this logic as it introduces inflation that needs to be controlled, and limits the cuts.
Growth
- Consumer sentiments - 50.8. This is a drop from 57. Not a good sign for confidence in the US markets
Central Bank Outlook
- Forward Guidance & Policy Path - "Wait and see" approach to see the full effects of the tariffs and will tackle. Unlikely to cut rates quickly due to inflation risks from tariffs.
Flow & Positioning Factors
- LDN and NY opens
List of upcoming data
German PMI - today
US PMI - today
Expectations
German PMI - 47.5/50.3 - Unsure, but doubt there will be a huge surprise to the upside
US PMI - 49.3/52.9 - Expect a downtrend here and close to the 49.3. It will invalidate longer-term trades if there's a huge surprise to the downside
US Unemployment claims -NA -Expecting higher
Bullish arguments
- More pumping by Trump to prop the market up while the fundamentals are still likely to bad as tariffs are still there
Bear arguments
- The tariff is still the biggest elephant in the room and nothing has changed there. If anything, China has taken steps to prepare for a worse response in the future if US does not reach a negotiation.
2. Trade Thesis
Directional Thesis
I am expecting DXY to go back up to 100 due to a temporary strength in the USD from the good news for Fed Powell and Trump backing down in tariffs.
Supporting Logic
- Structural
-- The DXY was holding 100 level before the Powell news.
-- If the current news stays status quo, I expect prices to rise back up to that fundamental level after a brief pullback from 99.4 to 99.2
-Tactical
A significant lower-high pivot point set on H1 chart. I need prices to remain above that 99 level. If it drops below, then the tactical levels do not work.
- Flows
Look for entry at either LDN or NY session open
Expected Path
- Pull back to 99.0 and now slow ascend back to 100
- There's a resistance level at 99.6. That would be TP1, and 100 would be TP2
Invalidation Logic
- Fundamental Invalidation
-- Trump tweets another fire Fed
-- China escalates the trade war
-- US PMI has a huge downside surprise (unlikely)
- Price-Based Invalidation
-- Price breaking below 99
Asymmetric Setup
If I enter at 99.1X, this is a potential 1:4R trade with high confidence
Trade Setup
Entry level
- 99.1 to 99.2
Scale-in plan (if any)
- I can enter full size here
Position sizing
- 1% of account
TP zones
- TP1 - 99.6
- TP2 - 100
- TP3 - 101 (significant psychological level)
Time stop
Kill trade if
a) Prices drop below 99
b) Prices do not bounce to the upside within 2 hours of LDN and NY open
My Thoughts #001Here is an idea 💡
I just think the pair is set to push higher...
Because the pair then went and made a Choch and meaning that we are moving from bearish pattern to bullish pattern
Anything could invalidate my set up
So use proper risk management
Let's do the most
DXY - Is a relief bounce to the 4-h FVG coming?The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been in a clearly defined downtrend over the recent period, showing consistent lower highs and lower lows. During its latest downward move, the DXY formed a 4-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG), which aligns with a significant gap in price action. This confluence of technical factors marks a strong rejection area, and from a trading perspective, it presents an ideal zone to consider short positions, especially if bearish price action confirms the setup.
Currently, however, the DXY is sitting at a major support level. This level has historically acted as a demand zone, and given the extended move downward, a bounce or retracement to the upside is a realistic scenario. Traders should stay alert for signs of bullish momentum or reversal patterns, as the potential for a temporary recovery from this support is not unlikely before any continuation of the broader trend.
Thanks for your support.
- Make sure to follow me so you don't miss out on the next analysis!
- Drop a like and leave a comment!
possibility of uptrendThe upward trend is expected to start according to the specified directions and if the price breaks through the resistance area, confirmation of the upward trend will be possible.
DOLLARThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is currently in a bearish phase, trading near 98.93 as of late April 2025, down from 99.71 earlier in the month. Key drivers include:
Political Uncertainty: Trump’s tariff policies (e.g., 25% levies on auto/semiconductor imports) and trade tensions have eroded the dollar’s safe-haven appeal, despite initial short-lived gains.
Fed Policy Expectations: Markets anticipate Fed rate cuts in 2025 if inflation cools, weakening the dollar. The Fed’s cautious stance in recent minutes has reinforced this outlook
Rising Treasury yields reflect inflation concerns and foreign selling, yet the DXY has weakened due to political risks and growth fears.
Basis trades (exploiting price gaps between Treasuries and derivatives) have amplified volatility, with an estimated $800B– MIL:1T at stake.
Divergence Signals:
The DXY-Treasury spread (usually correlated) has diverged, suggesting markets doubt the Fed’s ability to sustain higher rates despite sticky inflation. This divergence often precedes shifts in risk asset pricing.
Fed Policy Impact:
Fed minutes emphasize data dependency, delaying rate cuts until inflation eases convincingly. However, bond markets are pricing in 1–2 cuts by year-end, weakening the dollar.
Outlook and Critical Levels
Bond Yields: Likely to stabilize near 4.5% for 10-year Treasuries if inflation moderates, but geopolitical risks and tariff escalation could drive further volatility.
Conclusion
The DXY’s bearish bias persists amid political uncertainty and Fed dovishness, while bond markets face turbulence from inflation and foreign capital flows. Traders should monitor:
Fed rhetoric and U.S. inflation data (core PCE, CPI).
Geopolitical developments (U.S.-China trade talks, tariff adjustments).
This interplay suggests continued volatility, with the DXY likely to underperform unless Fed policy or risk sentiment shifts abruptly.
$DXY bullish from 96-98, massive bull flagDespite everyone calling for the death of the dollar, I think the dollar is in the process of bottoming and then will head higher.
Macron called for the Euro to replace the dollar (which is laughable) and likely marks a bottom.
Either we bounce here, or I could see the possibility of one more spike low down to the ~96 support level, but should we see a reaction there, it sets up a massive move higher in the dollar.
As you can see on the chart, we've been correcting inside of a bull flag, if we can form a low around $96-98, we will reverse and head higher to break the flag to the upside. Upside targets on the chart.
I think the bull market in the dollar is just starting, don't let the news scare you out of accumulating dollars over other fiat currencies.
DXY TVC:DXY is currently struggling to break the resistance and support tho the support is most likely to pull back on 98.000 level for support bofore it shoots to the upside.
USXUSD HOTW FrameworkUSXUSD HOTW Framework
Expansion delivery from Wednesday onwards.
April Lows Target, Previous Monthly Low by the time we will see the expansion occur.
Let's see if Medz is right once again
DXY BREAKOUT IN PLAY — Smart Money is Moving!After a clean falling wedge formation, DXY is showing early signs of bullish momentum.
Price action respects the trendline support + bullish orderblock (green zone) beautifully!
Next targets: 101.000 — 103.000 zone.
Watch for pullback entries before continuation.
This is textbook falling wedge breakout behavior — stay sharp!
Levels Marked:
Support: 99.00 zone
Target Zones: 101.000 & 103.000
Breaker structure: Confirmed bullish
Save this setup & be prepared!
DXY, big picture analysisTechnical analysis for DXY.
Looking for bottom about 89.209 to complete wave B of zigzag (Y).
Would then look for wave C of (Y) to break above 121.020 resistance (bearish pitchfork never tagged median line).
DXY "Dollar Index" Market Bullish Heist Plan (Day or Swing)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰💸✈️
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the DXY "Dollar Index" Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk ATR Line. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸"Take profit and treat yourself, traders. You deserve it!💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the MA breakout (99.900) then make your move - Bullish profits await!"
however I advise to Place Buy stop orders above the Moving average (or) Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level for Pullback entries.
📌I strongly advise you to set an "alert (Alarm)" on your chart so you can see when the breakout entry occurs.
Stop Loss 🛑: "🔊 Yo, listen up! 🗣️ If you're lookin' to get in on a buy stop order, don't even think about settin' that stop loss till after the breakout 🚀. You feel me? Now, if you're smart, you'll place that stop loss where I told you to 📍, but if you're a rebel, you can put it wherever you like 🤪 - just don't say I didn't warn you ⚠️. You're playin' with fire 🔥, and it's your risk, not mine 👊."
📍 Thief SL placed at the nearest/swing low level Using the 1H timeframe (98.900) Day / Swing trade basis.
📍 SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
🏴☠️Target 🎯: 101.400 (or) Escape Before the Target
🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
💰💵💸DXY "Dollar Index" Market Heist Plan (Swing/Day Trade) is currently experiencing a Bullish trend.., driven by several key factors.☝☝☝
📰🗞️Get & Read the Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, Geopolitical and News Analysis, Sentimental Outlook, Intermarket Analysis, Index-Specific Analysis, Future trend targets with Overall outlook score... go ahead to check 👉👉👉🔗🔗
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀
I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱👤🤗🤩
DXYIf we look at nature's theory , we can define see that the impulsive phase is to the upside and the market corrects to the down side.
We have a clear uptrend with 2 confirmed touches and now anticipating a bullish impulse on the third touch
The third touch is also a third touch of a pattern with 2 confirmed touches waiting for the final touch to go
Multiple confirmations
DXYU.S Dollar Index
- Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves and " AB " Corrective Waves
- Break of Structure
- Resistance Level
- Consolidation Phase
- Order Block
