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Can DXY Stabilize at 99.50-100 Area Despite FED 50bp Cut? Dollar Index – DXY has turned bearish after the corrective rally stopped at 105.70-106, an important resistance area at the end of June. Since then, the price even accelerated lower through summer so it appears that a bearish impulse is in play, but with recent touch of a new swing low, DXY is possibly in fifth wave, so be aware of some support in weeks ahead. But closer look shows that there is still some room left for 99.50-100 area, but if this will occur and structure a wedge shape, then we should be aware of reversals, and new correction. So as said, the price could still see a bit more weakness into the 5th wave to fully complete this ending diagonal, but then dollar can turn for a new correction, considering that recent dollar weakness has been mainly driven by these rate cut expectations, so now that this 50bp cut has been done, the dollar may stabilize due to a “buy the rumor, sell the news” effect. However, any rally will be temporary, as I think that dollar has room for much more weakness, bu ideally after another a-b-c recovery. 101.80 -102 is strong resistance. GH
TVC:DXY
by ew-forecast
DXY hit the 1W MA200 for the 1st time in 8 months! Will it hold?The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) following the Fed's -0.50% Rate Cut, hit on Wednesday its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in 8 months (since the week of January 10 2024). This is obviously the strongest Support on a long-term basis and technically should attract the first wave of buying pressure. However, the multi-year pattern, being a Channel Up, suggests that given some more weeks it should break and go for a Higher Low (blue Arc). As you can see on this pattern, every time the 1W MA200 was tested during a Bearish Leg, it broke. The last two Bearish Legs initially made a dead-cat-bounce and then priced the Low just above the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. The 1W RSI in particular provides very useful insight on this, as on the first oversold (below 30.00) Low it makes the bounce and then on the second RSI low, which is a Higher Low i.e. a Bullish Divergence, the price bottoms and rebounds long-term. As a result, with the 1W RSI bouncing on the 30.00 oversold barrier, we expect the price to rebound for a few weeks and then resume the downtrend towards the 1.236 and the bottom of the multi-year Channel Up. Our Target is 97.000. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DXY
by TradingShot
Bullish Bitcoin/Crypto and Bearish DXY Analysis In this scenario, a bearish DXY aligns with a bullish outlook for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, which has historically shown an inverse correlation. Let's break down the analysis based on this perspective: 1. Bearish DXY Outlook Support Breakdown Risk: The DXY is currently sitting at the strong support zone between 100-102 (blue area). However, if the U.S. Dollar Index fails to hold this support and breaks downward, the next key level of support lies around 98, as indicated by the descending yellow diagonal arrow. A breakdown below 100 could accelerate the DXY's decline, signaling a bearish trend. Lower Highs and Potential Reversal: The overall trend shows the DXY making lower highs, and the potential move downward suggests weakening dollar strength, which is bearish for the DXY. Timing of Key Breakdown: If the DXY does not hold this support, the next major support line, marked for Mon 07 Oct 24, could come into play, driving the index lower toward 98. 2. Bullish Bitcoin and Crypto Market Inverse Correlation with DXY: Historically, Bitcoin and the crypto market have an inverse relationship with the DXY. When the U.S. dollar weakens (bearish DXY), capital tends to flow into risk assets like Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Accumulation at Key Levels: As the DXY enters a bearish phase, Bitcoin’s price (blue line) shows strong upward momentum, with the potential for further gains. The green arrows highlight past instances where the DXY’s decline correlated with Bitcoin's strong bullish moves. The same pattern is projected now, with the blue arrow indicating a possible strong bullish leg for Bitcoin. Bitcoin Projection: With the DXY breaking below support and entering a bearish trend, Bitcoin could aim for new highs as investor sentiment shifts away from traditional safe-haven assets (like the U.S. dollar) and into riskier, high-reward assets such as crypto. Crypto Market Strength: A weakening dollar typically leads to increased interest in alternative assets, such as gold, Bitcoin, and other cryptocurrencies. As inflation concerns rise and the dollar loses strength, the crypto market becomes an attractive hedge, especially for institutional investors. 3. Long-Term Projection Bitcoin’s Upper Trendline: The chart shows a potential continuation of Bitcoin’s bullish rally if the DXY continues its decline. If Bitcoin follows historical trends, breaking through the current resistance levels, we could see significant price appreciation, pushing Bitcoin towards new highs. Altcoins Surge: As Bitcoin leads the charge, the broader crypto market typically follows. A bearish DXY could spur interest in altcoins, DeFi, NFTs, and other crypto sectors, as capital flows into the space looking for high returns amid a weakening U.S. dollar. Conclusion: Bearish DXY: If the DXY fails to hold support and moves lower, the U.S. dollar’s decline will be a strong catalyst for a bullish Bitcoin and broader crypto market rally. Bullish Crypto: This scenario points to a favorable environment for Bitcoin and altcoins, driven by weakening dollar strength and increasing interest in cryptocurrencies as an alternative asset class. Expect significant gains in Bitcoin and major crypto assets if the DXY breaks down from its current levels.
TVC:DXY
by Yassine_Houd
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) DXY is sitting at an important KL (Key Level) at around 100.600 . On a bigger timeframe we are still bullish on dollar. Several factors support Dollar strength: The Dollar is expected to maintain its strength for some time. Still, some risks could lead to further appreciation, including Euro area concerns, changes in Chinese currency policy, and how markets interpret US growth prospects. Interest rates: With yesterday’s interest rate decisions (50BPS) we saw DXY spike down . We do have to keep in mind if interest rate cuts continue, we might turn bearish on DXY, resulting in less demand in U.S. Dollar and more demand in stocks and gold . If however, we continue to the upside with DXY, it will confirm our XAUUSD sells that we have given the analysis for. Keep in mind: The aim of raising of the Fed's rates is to adjust the inflation level to a target value. Interest rate hike may have a positive effect on dollar quotes, while lowering can be seen as negative for the US dollar. Happy trading! FxPocket
TVC:DXYLong
by FxPocket