Potential BearsThe Map explains itself, but from the EW Perspective, we're done with an ABC Correction upwards, and the next move is another Impulse downstairs. Let's enjoy the move and try milk the market as best as we can.
USDX trade ideas
DOLLARThe US Dollar Index (DXY) Yearly Support and Potential Sell-Off to 96 Zone: Role of 10-Year Bond Yields and Interest Rates
1. Technical Outlook: DXY Support Breakdown and 96$ Target and Critical Support Levels.
The DXY recently breached the 200-week moving average (200-WMA), a key multi-year support level, signaling a potential trend reversal .
A sustained break below 98.00 could trigger a steeper decline toward 96.00-95$ long-term uptrend ascending trendline acting as 6months support floor connecting 2008, 2011 and 2020, . However, analyst projections also highlight the 96–95 zone as a plausible target if Fed rate cuts and macroeconomic headwinds persist .
Current Context (May 2025):
The DXY is testing 98.4 on weekly charts, with bears eyeing lower supports amid weakening USD sentiment .
A drop to ascending trend line on 6months would align with forecasts tied to Fed policy shifts and global currency strength .
2. 10-Year Bond Yield and Interest Rate Dynamics
Direct Relationship with the Dollar:
The 10-year Treasury yield and USD share a strong correlation: higher yields attract foreign capital, boosting dollar demand, while lower yields weaken the currency .
As of May 2025, the 10-year yield hovers near 4.54%, down from peaks but still elevated compared to global peers .
Impact of Rate Cuts and Policy Divergence:
Fed Rate Expectations: Markets price in five Fed rate cuts by late 2025, which would reduce yield advantages and pressure the dollar .
Policy Divergence: The ECB and BoJ are expected to maintain or ease policies, while the Fed delays cuts, temporarily supporting USD. However, prolonged easing could reverse this advantage .
3. Key Drivers of Dollar Weakness Toward 96-95 ascending trendline
Bearish Factors:
Yield Decline: A drop in the 10-year yield (e.g., due to Fed cuts or recession fears) would erode USD appeal. For every 1% decline in yields, the DXY could fall 3–5% .
Risk Sentiment: A "soft landing" scenario or rally in risk assets (stocks, commodities) may reduce safe-haven USD demand .
Tariff and Geopolitical Risks: Escalating US-China/EU trade tensions could weaken the USD if global growth fears dominate .
Bullish Counterpoints:
Hawkish Fed Surprises: Strong US data (e.g., inflation, jobs) may delay rate cuts, keeping yields and the dollar elevated .
Safe-Haven Flows: Renewed geopolitical/market turmoil could revive USD demand despite lower yields .
4. Summary: Interplay Between Yields, Rates, and DXY
Factor Impact on DXY
10-Year Yield Rises Strengthens USD (investor inflows)
10-Year Yield Falls Weakens USD (capital outflows)
Fed Rate Cuts Pressures USD (narrows yield gap)
ECB/BoJ Easing Supports USD (policy divergence)
Path to 96: A combination of Fed rate cuts, declining 10-year yields, and stronger global currencies (EUR, JPY) could drive the DXY toward 96–95 .
Reversal Risks: Hawkish Fed pivots or safe-haven demand amid crises may stall the decline.
Conclusion
The DXY’s potential drop to the 96–95 zone hinges on sustained declines in the 10-year Treasury yield and Fed rate cuts, compounded by technical breakdowns. While policy divergence and safe-haven flows offer temporary USD support, broader macroeconomic shifts (e.g., tariff risks, global growth) could accelerate the sell-off. Traders should monitor yields, Fed rhetoric, and technical levels on demand floor and supply roof for confirmation of bearish or bullish momentum
The tariff legal zig-zagWith different US courts firing "shots" at each other over the legality of tariffs, the market is taking a bit of a pause from accelerating further. Let's dig in!
DJ:DJI
TVC:SPX
TVC:NDQ
TVC:DXY
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
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US DOLLAR FORECAST (update)Update of stalking bullish behavior in the USD instrument.
Intermarket confluence has aligned instruments such as Gold & US Stocks are soft to Bearish, I focus on XAUUSD and US30 outside of Oil to gauge validity of idea.
Thus said focus is on the 5 min chart, we seek rejections framed from 30 min area of interests.
Trigger should be after 5m Bullish playbook, manipulation is a sign of a healthy "auction".
DXYCurrent Market Analysis:
- Monthly Trend: Bearish
- Weekly Trend: Bearish
- Daily Trend: Bullish
- H4 Trend: Bullish
Strategy:
- Waiting for H4 trend shift to confirm a potential reversal
- Anticipated Break: Daily support turning into resistance
DXY | Harmonic Patterns | Technical Analysis. Recovery Underway?TVC:DXY
Over recent sessions, I’ve been highlighting a critical zone for the TVC:DXY between $98.70 and $98.80 , where several important technical patterns are forming that could signal the start of a rebound after the recent decline.
➡️ The dollar broke below the Head and Shoulders neckline at $100.27 , hitting the default target I projected at $98.69 , which corresponds to the 200% Fibonacci extension. This is a classic confirmation of the breakdown and subsequent drop.
➡️ However, since reaching this level, the TVC:DXY has begun to form strong bullish patterns:
Bullish Crab Pattern at the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, projected at $98.91
Bullish Alt-Bat Pattern at the 113% Fibonacci extension, at $98.80
These emerging bullish setups suggest a solid potential reversal, indicating that the TVC:DXY might be preparing to recover.
🎯 The default targets for these bullish patterns are around $99.95 , aligning with key resistance zones and Fibonacci confluence.
Summary: The TVC:DXY has completed the expected downward move from the Head and Shoulders pattern and is now showing clear technical signs of a possible reversal. The price action in the coming sessions will be critical to confirm whether the index can sustain this recovery toward higher levels.
Safe Traders,
André Cardoso
USD seeks sellsideDXY moved below the May Open, and as I was anticipating that it's still going to reprice lower where the IPDA Low is resting. The current price action supports the Risk-On regime for now.
DXY (LONG)
Break retest of down trend movement
Dollar has been on down trent and till it break trendline,we to bearish.
DXY is pulling back decisivelyIt looks like DXY ready a pullback since it has already showing a significant weakness. We should anticipate continue pullback until NFP release next month. I'd like to see the current Dealing Range High purged and fail to push higher to confirm that the sell program is still intact.
DXY Bearish27 Mei 2025
DXY continuation bearish,
currently retrace and there is reversal signal.
SELL USDXXX atau BUY XXXUSD & GOLD
BIAS To Bearish
Dxymonthly view.
i will like to see dxy seek more lower price before going long again. but lets see if dxy will close the month with same bearish preasure or end up closing as indicition or rejection
possibility of correctionGiven the behavior of the index in the resistance range and the resistance trend line, an upward trend is expected. Otherwise, a downward trend to the previous low is possible.
Change the trend It is expected that a trend change will take place within the current support range and we will witness the start of an uptrend. Otherwise, the downtrend will continue along the specified path.
USXUSD OHLC Weekly ProfileUSXUSD OHLC Weekly Profile
Expecting a bearish week.
Notice how Bank Holiday aligns for a sponsorship lower from the Daily FVG.
Mix that with Economic Calendar - Thursday & Friday delivery lower, expecting a mid-week reversal.
Highlighting the lagging inverse relationship BTC and DXY. This is crazy.
And if it continues to play out, it means that higher is next.
So what do we have here?
This is highlighting the lagging inverse relationship BTC has had with DXY since Bitcoin bottomed and DXY topped.
We can see that when DXY drops, BTC moves higher, but it has a lagging period beforehand.
The crazy part is that this lag has been 119 days until BTC moves back up to its recent local high.
EVERY single time.
From there, BTC enters an expansive phase, and every time this has been between 49 and 56 days.
Right now, we are right at that 119 day mark.
Is this continues to play out, we’re heading into price expansion next week for at least 49 days.
When you really dig into the charts you see that’s everything is actually very patterned and simple.
What makes it hard is our emotion.
Next week, expect volatility 🔥
DOLLAR I Weekly CLS I Model 2- Target CLS HighHey, Market Warriors, here is another outlook on this instrument
If you’ve been following me, you already know every setup you see is built around a CLS range, a Key Level, Liquidity and a specific execution model.
If you haven't followed me yet, start now.
My trading system is completely mechanical — designed to remove emotions, opinions, and impulsive decisions. No messy diagonal lines. No random drawings. Just clarity, structure, and execution.
🧩 What is CLS?
CLS is real smart money — the combined power of major investment banks and central banks moving over 6.5 trillion dollars a day. Understanding their operations is key to markets.
✅ Understanding the behaviour of CLS allows you to position yourself with the giants during the market manipulations — leading to buying lows and selling highs - cleaner entries, clearer exits, and consistent profits.
🛡️ Models 1 and 2:
From my posts, you can learn two core execution models.
They are the backbone of how I trade and how my students are trained.
📍 Model 1
is right after the manipulation of the CLS candle when CIOD occurs, and we are targeting 50% of the CLS range. H4 CLS ranges supported by HTF go straight to the opposing range.
📍 Model 2
occurs in the specific market sequence when CLS smart money needs to re-accumulate more positions, and we are looking to find a key level around 61.8 fib retracement and target the opposing side of the range.
👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions.
⚔️ Listen Carefully:
Analysis is not trading. Right now, this platform is full of gurus" trying to sell you dreams based on analysis with arrows while they don't even have the skill to trade themselves.
If you’re ever thinking about buying a Trading Course or Signals from anyone. Always demand a verified track record. It takes less than five minutes to connect 3rd third-party verification tool and link to the widget to his signature.
"Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own."
— David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
Dollar Bottoming Out Pretty solid bottom for USD. I am assuming more money flowing into USD when a correction is about to happen. We see that this morning when we had that quick drop from 7:00 - 8:00 EST. US10Y rate dropping, USD rising, and equity declining. Back to the old game. So I am suggesting long USD, and short equities, given the recent comeback is way too ridiculous and needs a correction now.
$DXYThe U.S. dollar might face downward pressure as capital shifts into safer or high-demand assets:
💰 Stocks – High quality U.S. products still attract global demand.
🪙 Bitcoin – Emerging as digital reserves.
🥇 Gold – Classic portfolio leverage in times of uncertainty.
🇺🇸 U.S. Strategy – Dollar devaluation could be a smart move to attract foreign capital. Big market = big opportunity.
👉 The U.S. needs capital to grow. A weaker dollar might be the setup.
#Forex #DXY #Bitcoin #Gold #USMarkets #SmartMoneyMoves #TheMoneyAssociation
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Bullish Reversal Setup – 1H Chart Analy ENTRY POINT: 100.005
→ This is the area where the trade is suggested to enter long (buy).
🟥 STOP LOSS: Around 99.307
→ Placed below strong support to manage risk.
🟦 SUPPORT ZONE: 99.776 - 99.307
→ Strong historical demand zone, price has bounced from here before.
🟪 BREAKOUT ZONE: Near 100.5
→ If price breaks the trendline here, it may trigger bullish momentum.
🎯 TARGET POINT: 103.096
→ This is the take profit zone (blue box) with a potential gain of +3.29%.
📊 Trade Setup Summary:
✅ Buy Setup: Price approaching support zone, forming a potential reversal.
⚠️ Watch for breakout: Above the trendline to confirm bullish move.
✨ Great Risk-to-Reward: Small risk (tight stop), big reward.
Dollar is turning into trash and people are rushing to buy EURODXY chart shows the US dollar is crashing down. From the peak beginning of this year to current price level, it has fallen nearly 10% already. I expect more to come and would be placing strategic bets on EURUSD.
DXYDXY in 1d fractals is bearish .It's overall swing is also very bearish but currently in retracement phase . Now in 2h it gave choch after swapping liquidity . so high chance to go down from marked supply zone . once confirmed choch in 30 min as well from supply then.
all xxx / usd pairs long .
