DXY is retracing from major supportDXY is retracing from major support. It can reach to level of 102.5
USDX trade ideas
DeGRAM | DXY reached the retracement levelDXY is moving in a descending channel between trend lines.
The descending structure is preserved.
The price has reached the resistance level coinciding with the 38.2% retracement level.
The chart has reached the dynamic resistance and the upper boundary of the channel.
We expect a pullback after consolidation under the resistance level.
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DXY Short I'm expecting price to head back down to 100.553, previous day low point.
For buy, a strong 4hr candle must break and close above 101.372. Should price breaks above 101.372, my first target will be at 102.008.
Why I See The Huge Sell-Off Intensifying:Please read
I have been so focussed on the VIX index. I wish I had checked its weekly stochastic levels in advance like I regularly do with Precious metals and Forex sometimes when i trade.
The USDX is pushing off this massive W/bottom on the 2 hour time frame. Imagine the double whammy effect this will have with the VIX and USDX rallying concurrently. Just my thoughts.
DXY Finds Support, 105 Next | The Last Signal (Not Subtle)A 570 days long support level has been activated and a reversal is now taking place on the U.D. Dollar Index (DXY). This means that the DXY is now turning bullish for the first time since June 2024.
The support level in question, marked on the chart with an orange line, marked the end of a major decline in late 2023 (December). As soon as this level was hit, around 100.617, the DXY entered a four months long bullish wave.
This same long-term support level supported the DXY back in April and February 2023.
The next rise is set to put this index around 105. Can be a bit lower or a bit higher, this would be the initial move.
This rise can last between 2-3 months, initial. If the bullish move will be continued we can only ascertain after the first leg-up is in.
Knowing the significance of this index, how it relates inversely to Cryptocurrency and the Stock market, as well as to sociopolitical stability, we can assume that things are about to get rough. In short, war is about to intensify and everything is set to experience a major leg-down; a global-wide (instead of marketwide) correction; a major financial flush. The Global Reset 2.0.
This is the final signal. It confirms everything we've been seeing in the past month.
It confirms a bearish bias on the stock indexes.
It supports the intensification of Bitcoin's correction in the ensuing months.
Panic will set in, but it will not be the end of the world.
After the major market flush is over, it will feel like when a hurricane passes through your town... Everything is down to pieces, but the air is clean and it feels really peaceful and calm.
There is no time to cry. We all stand up and start to rebuild. In time, the disaster will be a memory and we will use the experience for growth.
Namaste.
Clear Bearish Setup For DXY📉 There Is Clear Bear Flag Formed At The Chart By The Perfect ABC Structure And Currently Playing At The Wave C And The Main Target For This Wave Is 97.7$ Zone
👉 97.7$ Is a Important Level And Any Breakdown From This Level Will Be a Great Bullish Factor For Crypto And Stock Markets
📥 Totally I Think Incoming Down For Crypto Is a Last Down Before New Strong Bullish Trend
DXY Will Go Lower! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for DXY.
Time Frame: 10h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 100.721.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 99.278.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
#DXY playout for NFP here is my expectation for the dxy index move. strategically we can look for xxxusd pair trades
DXY: Local Correction Ahead! Buy!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 101.162
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
dxy analysis mallicastMallicast team dollar index analysis We announced the trend at the beginning of the week and we still believe that the dollar will be bearish until the price of 100.278
Dollar Index (DXY), DailyFundamental
The dollar had a volatile day due to weak labor market data but better PMIs. The Aug ADP Employment Change fell to 99k (cons. 145k, prev. revised to 111k from 122k). The final Unit Labor Costs for 2Q were revised to 0.4% from 0.9% QoQ SAAR, showing a wage inflation slowdown.
However, the dollar rebounded briefly with upward revisions of Aug Services and Composite PMIs.
Technical
DXY extended its downturn and tested the 101.00 level. The trendline failed to hold the index, and the diverging bearish EMAs sent bearish signals.
If DXY fails to climb above the trendline, the index may extend its downtrend to 100.50.
Conversely, if DXY closes above the trendline and both EMAs, the index could gain upward momentum toward 101.80.
Pre Non Farm Market Analysis6th September
DXY: Currently just below 100.90, could consolidate/retrace briefly, looking downside to 100.55 support level (NFP Pending), could bounce from support
NZDUSD: Buy 0.6245 SL 20 TP 50 (DXY Weakness)
AUDUSD: Buy 0.6755 SL 25 TP 65 (DXY Weakness)
GBPUSD: Sell 1.3170 SL 30 TP 80 (DXY Strength)
EURUSD: Buy 1.1145 SL 20 TP 60 (DXY Weakness)
USDJPY: Watch out between 142 and 141 support area, possible bounce!
USDCHF: Look for reaction at 0.8345 key support level.
USDCAD: Stay out (CAD Employment pending)
Gold: Retracing, look for reaction at 2506, possible bounce, if broken, could trade down to 2480
US Dollar Index (DXY) Top-Down AnalysisA top-down analysis of the US Dollar Index (DXY), starting from the higher timeframes such as the monthly and weekly charts to assess the overall trend, and then zooming into the daily and intraday charts for detailed insights into potential entry and exit points.
DxyHere price has broke above a strong resistant zone which is now acting as a support and waiting for a nice retest on fib level 0.382 retracement before continuation to the bullish side.
Downtrend According to the behavior of the index in the current support range, possible scenarios have been identified. As long as the index does not stabilize above the 78.6% level, the continuation of the downward trend is likely
DXY- Dive under 100?In my previous DXY analysis I said that, although the index reversed from the beginning of the year support, bulls should not get too excited as long as the index is under 102.30 zone.
In the next days, the index resumed its fall and now is trading back towards recent lows.
Today's NFP data could bring clarification and if the index falls below the recent lows, 99.50 is exposed.
For a bullish scenario, we need a reversal from this zone which could also be the beginning of a double-bottom pattern.
Elliott Waves: Dollar Index: 6 Sep, 2024 | The Bearish Market©Master of Elliott Waves: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M.
The (v)-orange wave is unfolding to push lower, targeting the low of 99.487, while the price must remain below the high of 101.917 to maintain this view.
Daily Technical Analysis of Gold,Currencies,and Indices 6/9/2024Daily Technical Analysis for Major Currency Pairs, Commodities, and Indices - September 6, 2024
Greetings,
Welcome, I’m Mohammed Qais Abdulghani, a financial markets expert, with the daily technical analysis session for major currency pairs, commodities, and indices for Friday, September 6, 2024.
Upcoming Economic Data:
Before we start the technical analysis, let’s highlight the key economic data scheduled for today, which could significantly impact market movements. Starting at 12:00 PM (Mecca Time), the Eurozone’s GDP will be released. Later, at 3:30 PM, a series of important U.S. economic reports will be published, including:
• Average hourly earnings.
• Nonfarm payrolls report.
• Unemployment rate.
Dollar Index (DXY) Analysis:
The U.S. Dollar Index remains under selling pressure, with prices continuing to trade below key trendlines within a major downtrend channel. The index remains below the 102 level, indicating potential further downside toward 100.300. Despite mixed U.S. data, the private nonfarm employment report released earlier this week showed negative results, increasing pressure on the dollar.
EUR/USD Pair Analysis:
The EUR/USD pair is attempting to sustain its bullish momentum, with prices holding above the 1.10 level. This support keeps the upside outlook intact, potentially targeting 1.12 and 1.13 in the medium term. A break below 1.10 would invalidate this positive scenario.
GBP/USD Pair Analysis:
Prices holding above the 1.31 level reinforce the bullish bias for the GBP/USD pair, with potential targets at 1.3250 and 1.3360. A break below 1.31 would invalidate the positive outlook.
USD/JPY Pair Analysis:
The pair is again under pressure as prices remain below 145 yen, suggesting further downside potential toward 140 yen in the short term. If the selling continues, we might see a drop to 134 yen in the medium term.
USD/CHF Pair Analysis:
The USD/CHF pair remains under selling pressure, and as long as prices stay below 0.8510, further declines are likely, with targets at 0.8370 and 0.8240.
AUD/USD Pair Analysis:
The AUD/USD pair continues to hold above the 0.6670 level, maintaining its bullish stance. A move toward 0.6900 and 0.7100 remains possible unless prices fall below 0.6670.
NZD/USD Pair Analysis:
The NZD/USD pair is approaching a key resistance level at 0.6225. Breaking this level, which coincides with the 55-day moving average, could drive the pair higher toward 0.6450 and 0.6500 in the medium term.
USD/CAD Pair Analysis:
The pair remains under pressure, with prices trading below 1.36, signaling further downside toward 1.34 and potentially 1.33.
GBP/JPY Pair Analysis:
The yen is regaining strength against the pound, and with prices staying below 196 yen, the pair is likely to face further downside, targeting 184 yen in the short term and possibly 170 yen in the medium term.
EUR/JPY Pair Analysis:
The EUR/JPY pair remains under pressure, and if prices break below 158 yen, we could see further declines toward 153 yen and possibly 148 yen.
EUR/GBP Pair Analysis:
The EUR/GBP pair remains under selling pressure as long as prices remain below 0.8450, with potential downside targets at 0.8375 and 0.8300 in the medium term.
USD/TRY Pair Analysis:
The USD/TRY pair is attempting to recover amid U.S. dollar weakness. If prices fall below 34 lira, a correction may occur, pushing the pair back toward 33.50 lira.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Analysis:
Bitcoin continues to face selling pressure. As long as prices remain below the psychological barrier at 60,000 USD, further declines are expected, targeting 52,000 USD, and possibly 44,000 USD in the medium term.
Ethereum (ETH/USD) Analysis:
Ethereum remains under pressure, and a break below 2,200 USD could trigger a decline toward 1,600 USD. A break above 2,600 USD is needed to invalidate this bearish scenario.
Ripple (XRP/USD) Analysis:
Ripple is attempting to confirm a break below 55 cents. If this break is confirmed, prices could head toward 48 cents and 40 cents.
Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis:
Gold is attempting to recover and break higher. A confirmed break above 2,520 USD could open the door to new highs, targeting 2,560 USD, with potential further gains toward 2,600 USD and 2,700 USD in the medium term. This bullish scenario will remain intact unless prices break below 2,460 USD.
Crude Oil (WTI) Analysis:
Crude oil remains under pressure. A break below 70 USD could lead to a decline toward 64 USD. Confirmation of this break on the 4-hour chart is needed for further downside.
Silver (XAG/USD) Analysis:
Silver is attempting to recover losses, and a break above 29 USD could push prices toward 30.50 USD and 32 USD.
Natural Gas (NG) Analysis:
If natural gas breaks above 2.20 USD, we could see further gains toward 2.60 USD, with the possibility of reaching 3.20 USD in the medium term. This positive outlook requires prices to remain above 2.20 USD.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) Analysis:
Breaking below the 41,000-point level could lead to a sharp decline toward 40,000 points. A confirmed break below this level would indicate further downside.
S&P 500 Index (SPX) Analysis:
As prices remain below the 55-day moving average, further downside pressure is expected. A confirmed break below 5,500 points could trigger a sharp decline toward 5,300 points.
Nasdaq Index (NASDAQ) Analysis:
The Nasdaq remains under pressure, and a break below 19,250 points could lead to a decline toward 18,250 points.
Russell 2000 Index (RUSSELL 2000) Analysis:
A break below 2,150 points could trigger a sharp decline toward 2,040 points.
FTSE 100 Index (FTSE 100) Analysis:
Breaking below the support at 8,200 points could lead to a sell-off, targeting 8,050 points.
DAX Index (DAX) Analysis:
The DAX remains under pressure, and a break below 18,750 points could lead to a corrective decline toward 18,200 points.
CAC 40 Index (CAC 40) Analysis:
The CAC remains under selling pressure, with prices below 7,600 points, potentially leading to a decline toward 7,200 points.
Nikkei Index (NIKKEI 225) Analysis:
A confirmed break below 37,000 points could trigger a sell-off toward 35,000 points and 33,000 points in the coming sessions.
Conclusion:
This concludes today’s daily technical analysis. Thank you for your time, and I wish you all the best in your trading day.
This analysis was prepared by Mohammed Qais Abdulghani, a financial markets expert, based on current data and market trends. Please note that all strategies and analyses are subject to market changes, and it is advisable to stay updated with economic developments to make informed decisions.
DOLLAR POTENCIAL DIRECTIONCan you see it ?
This is generally what I would like seeing from the dollar and other designated USD related pairs
Be safe, it is non farm :)
Let's look at the big picture! What's in store for the USD?Let's look at the big picture! What's in store for the dollar?
Let's analyze the expectations for tomorrow's Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Data. We'll start with economic reasons and market reactions.
A strong downward trend in USD began at the start of last month. The primary driver was the much lower-than-expected non-farm payrolls data and the higher-than-expected unemployment data. During its last meeting, the Fed paused rate cuts. This pause, coupled with the rising unemployment rate and declining payrolls data, sparked recession fears in the market.
Last month, non-farm payrolls came in at 114k, below the 176k expectation, though the 2024 average is 202k. This is comparable to pre-pandemic levels. The real issue is the 4.3% unemployment rate. Since dropping below 4% in 2022, unemployment stayed below that level until May 2024. May saw a 4% rate, June 4.1%, and July 4.3%. This steady increase after two years of being anchored below 4% raised concerns that the economy is cooling more than desired. However, the 2024 average is still below 4% at 3.96%.
This panic has led the market to expect a 50 basis point rate cut at the Fed's September meeting. This is reflected most clearly in the U.S. swap market. The swap market (top right corner of the graph) expects the Fed to make three cuts by year-end, totaling 100 basis points. This suggests one of the cuts, particularly at the September meeting, will likely be a 50 basis point reduction.
The key issue here isn't just that unemployment has risen above 4%. The concern is the steady upward trend over the past three reports. If tomorrow's unemployment data comes in above 4.3% and this upward trend continues, market panic could intensify, and the expectation of a 50 basis point cut in September could be further priced in.
However, the Fed doesn't entirely agree with the market. Powell signaled at Jackson Hole that rate cuts would begin in September, but both his speech and subsequent Fed statements hinted that the September cut would be 25 basis points.
At the end of last year, the market also ignored the Fed and priced in rate cuts too early, only to later align with the Fed. While we are seeing an upward trend in unemployment, the averages remain reasonable and, more importantly, close to pre-pandemic levels. Yes, it seems the time for cuts has come, but we don't expect 100 basis points by year-end as the market does. At best, the Fed may implement three 25 basis point cuts by year-end, and at worst, two cuts.
Service PMI data remains above expectations, and real market participants are not as pessimistic as the swap markets. We've seen multiple times that the Fed doesn't take market expectations as a guide when making decisions.
If tomorrow's unemployment data comes in at 4.3% and non-farm payrolls around 164k, we could see some initial volatility in the dollar, followed by a slight upward trend. In a positive scenario, if the data shows unemployment below 4.3%, the dollar could rally sharply. In a best-case scenario, if unemployment comes in at 4% or lower and non-farm payrolls around 200k or higher, we could see a significant rally.
In a worst-case scenario, unemployment above 4.3% could deepen market panic and solidify expectations of a 50 basis point cut in September, leading to a sharp decline in the dollar.
Technically, looking at the DXY, we see that we are at a significant support level in the bigger picture. This support has only been broken once since 2019, and even then, it didn't hold below this level for long.
The downtrend that began at the end of June appears to have completed its 5th wave at this key support level. Now, it seems we're entering an ABC correction. The correction of the downtrend that began in June has reached the 23.6% Fibonacci level. In major trends, our expectation is for a correction to 23.6%, followed by a retracement in the trend direction and a move to the 38.2% primary correction level as it attracts more trend participants.
Looking at the H4 chart, the short-term downtrend channel has been broken. After reaching the 23.6% primary correction level, the price has retraced to the 61.8% correction level and started finding support in these regions. Depending on tomorrow's data, we could see a retracement to the 78.6% or 0% level, forming a double bottom. If the data is supportive, we could witness a sharp rally towards the confluence of the main downtrend channel and the 38.2% level.
In the event of negative data, based on the increase in unemployment, we could see a decline towards the July 2023 low of 99.60-99.80.
DXY Levels to Watch Ahead of NFPLooking at the chart of the US Dollar Index (DXY), the world’s reserve currency remains in a well-defined downtrend despite last week’s bounce. The near-term reaction in the US dollar will likely follow the likelihood of a 25bps rate cut from the Fed (bullish) vs. 50bps rate cut (bearish) as outlined in the chart above, but ultimately, the dominant downtrend and potential for consistent interest rate reductions from the Federal Reserve in the coming year could keep the greenback under pressure as we move through the fall regardless.
-MW
