Dollar Index has finally broken Key supportDollar Index has finally broken Key support and now resting on next major support.
USDX trade ideas
$DXY is about to reject off of a historic downtrendLooking at TVC:DXY , it seems primed for a reversion off of the decade-long downtrend. JPow basically confirmed a rate cut in September, and now dot plots are already shifting towards a 50 bps cut in November , when previously (yesterday) earliest calls for a 50 bps hike was consisted to be December 2024
What do you guys think? Time to start exploring risk assets? NFT markets are beginning to see a pulse- this could be signs of liquidity already quietly entering the system.
SELL DOLLAR INDEXIn today's session we are monitoring DXY for further sell positions. Our entry is at 101.482 seconds entry will be at 101.650. Stop loss will be above 101.789 and targets as low as 100.733.
This means we are bullish on EURUSD and GBPUSD.
Use proper risk management.
Jerome´s big crypto teleport- with today´s anticipated appearance at Jackson Hole, J. Powell confirmed what we all knew was coming: a September federal funds rate cut, the first since rates started to go up due to inflation
- with "the pivot" as some call it, came a lot of speculation whether it would be bullish or bearish for the markets
- with the price action of DXY today, the answer to that question is now clear
Every asset class teleports higher from here, the biggest beneficiary of this likely to be Bitcoin.
DXY │ DOLLAR INDEX │ 26 -30 August 2024
- Daily timeframe
At the time of recording this, the last break of structure is at the low . Leaving behind the supply responsible for that break of structure.
• Bearish bias
- Four-hour timeframe
The last break of structure is at 100.923, showing an alignment of the four-hour timeframe structure with the daily timeframe. We wait to see if the supply that caused the break of structure will hold.
• Bearish bias
- 15-minute timeframe
I do not comment much on the lower timeframe when it comes to DXY so I will just attach the chart, although the 15m is bearish as well
• Bearish bias
How do I come to a bias conclusion?
I look at the swing structure; if it is bearish, I conclude a bearish bias
©Austin Palmer for FONOS Fx, 2024.
htf dollar
smt with 2023 lows forming.
q2 year
formed above the Y0, RY0 and RQ0
geopolitical warfare.
DXY to drop to 75 or beyondTapped higher fib levels, rejected off a line of a previous high in the past that's contributed to the bearish 1W+ candles. Rate cuts are soon to occur which means less investment in bonds, de dollarization due to U.S. foreign policy economically punishing countries not cooperating with the U.S., U.S. debt exponentially increasing is unsustainable and will make people worry and be more cautious investing in the U.S until the debt bubble pops. Dxy decrease may lead to another sharp rise in inflation and a recession in the years to come.
DXYbreak above the 4h supply zone will give a good entry on eu and gu and even gold, looking sells on all pairs opposite to DOLLAR. lets see how friday goes
Friday 23, N.Y Gold & USDX: Very very interesting...See charts!
Happy Friday guys, I was tired & late getting into the Asian session earlier. But as soon as I locked-horns with my 42" monitor I saw that Gold & Silver were in a mild upside rally. I soon took a long position & recommended one for you in Silver which was rallying stronger than gold.
The gold price struggled at resistance from 2490 to 2500, not strong resistance at 2490 but volume is always lighter in the Asian session. We quickly booked a profit, I am hoping you did as everything happened so fast in a Long trade which only lasted 40 minutes or so. What happened next? Plz read on below.
I saw that price kept getting rejected at the 20 EMA on the lower-time-frame. I decided to go Short & I recommended a very small lot-size Sell-stop below where price was I think from memory my Sell-stops were around 2489 or thereabouts. Next, I distracted myself on another project on the 'hotcopper' forum with a bullish lithium company I am very heavily invested in called Raiden Resources RDN is the ticker, if you want to check it out, I will never sell Stock trades but this thing is looking good, but you google the stories on Raiden Resources if you wish.
So, I had no Stops on my Short because I generally do not like Stops because I find 9 times out 10 the Market-Makers will hunt your stop down so that Mr & Mrs Market-Maker make their big fat wealthy private bank clients wealthier. Maybe that's a bit harsh, but I often wonder.
So the Gold price found support because I took my eye off the field & forgot to book profits and the Gold price started to properly find support and some strength above 2490.
Guys, that is enough on that. Look what concerns me in Friday trading are these bullish Head 'n' Shoulders patterns & on multiple timeframes. We are still about 0.31% from the trigger line & look they probably won't play out today, but what about next week? If the USDX does turnaround next Monday & it certainly could do that because it is very oversold on the Stochastics. However, the path of least resistance for the USDX is further down because it's below its moving averages & how many bloody times do we go Long & then close out of the trade & look at a higher-time-frame & exclaim to ourselves, 'I am an idiot the trend was down / the path of least resistance was down - Why did I go Long'. I used to do it all the time when I was a very green, greedy & gullible trader. Well I still get greedy!
I will monitor these H & S's on the ASDX.
I see where the boss speaks today, The Fed Chair, Mr Powell at 10am Eastern Time USA & Canada and we also have another chat from FOMC member Bostic. My feeling is that Mr Powell has maybe felt a bit anxious lately & he may give our market a bit of a boost today by reiterating the theme of interest rate reduction(s) next month which of course will bode well for Gold & Precious Metals in general.
Further on the Economic Calendar today, we have Building Permits at 08:30am & then New Home Sales at 10am, the latter having a bit more weight and bearing on our trading. Unless you are looking to Short the Gold price today, with our 2 speakers hopefully talking up an interest rate reduction & if the other 2 mentions on the economic calendar come in a bit bearish then this will be poor or the USD but more than likely supportive of the Gold price and getting back above 2500, which I think is where the 50EMA sits on the 1 HR Chart.
So recapping, my feeling is that today will be bullish for Gold depending on New Home Sales mostly but Mr Powell's endorsements rate reductions for the US economy commencing next month will shrug off any bearishness in the Gold price.
In addition to the Head 'n' Shoulders patterns for the USDX (see the 1st set of charts), I have scouring Precious Metals searching for other H & S's patterns so I will be posting these charts so that you have a road-map for the possibility of taking these H & S trades which are predominately bullish ones, I will post these below very soon & I have tradingview alerts set for when price gets near the neckline.
Cheers,
Chris
DXY up now, then will seeDXY on inverted HaS, it should go up now to resist + trendline and then will see
DXY is going to down but something is one the wayin this analysis we are going to sell the gold but something is wrong find it on chart then comment below👇
Check the trend According to the behavior of the index in the current support range, possible scenarios have been identified.
As long as the index does not stabilize above the 61.8% level, the continuation of the downward trend is likely
Daily Technical Analysis of Gold,Currencies,and Indices 23/8/202
Daily Technical Analysis for Gold, Currencies, and Indices - 23/8/2024
Introduction
Welcome, I am Mohammed Qais Abdulghani, a financial markets expert. Today, Friday, August 23, I present to you my detailed outlook on the major currency pairs, commodities, and financial indices. This Friday is marked by significant economic data releases, including the speech of the Federal Reserve Chairman at the Jackson Hole Symposium and the New Home Sales Report. Recent U.S. data has been mixed, with an increase in jobless claims but a divergence in the manufacturing and services PMI indices. This divergence has supported a rise in the U.S. Dollar Index, which is testing the 10,500 level, though it remains under pressure.
USD Index (DXY) Analysis
The U.S. Dollar Index is attempting to rise and test the 10,500 level. However, remaining below this level, combined with bearish trend indicators, suggests a possible continuation of the downward trend targeting levels as low as 100. Statements from some Federal Reserve officials about the need to cut interest rates soon, coupled with a strong labor market and inflation nearing the target, could influence dollar movements. Technically, staying below the 10,500 level confirms the bearish scenario.
EUR/USD Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is showing some temporary corrective upswings, supported by mixed U.S. data and corrective gains in the U.S. Dollar Index. Staying below the previous close and the 1.1000 level could lead to further corrections. The GBP/USD pair, meanwhile, continues in a downward trend, indicating the likelihood of further declines.
GBP/USD Analysis
The GBP/USD pair remains in a positive trend as long as prices trade above the 1.30500 level. If prices can stay above this level, the pair may target 1.32500 in the upcoming trading sessions.
USD/JPY Analysis
The USD/JPY pair is attempting to hold above the 145 yen level, with corrective upswings possibly driving it toward 149 yen. The corrective bullish scenario will remain in place unless prices fall below 145 yen.
USD/CHF Analysis
The USD/CHF pair is trading under selling pressure, with prices continuing to stay below 0.87250, supporting the bearish scenario toward 0.85100.
AUD/USD Analysis
For the AUD/USD pair, remaining above 0.667 supports the bullish scenario, targeting 0.69. The bullish outlook will remain valid unless prices drop below 0.667.
NZD/USD Analysis
The NZD/USD pair is attempting to retest the 55-day moving average. If prices succeed in holding above the 0.600 level, we may see a new bullish wave targeting 0.63000.
USD/CAD Analysis
The USD/CAD pair is approaching a significant area near the 1.36 level. Staying above this level could offer the pair an opportunity to enter a bullish wave toward 1.37500. The bullish scenario will hold as long as prices do not fall below 1.36.
GBP/JPY Analysis
The GBP/JPY pair is attempting to return to the 196 yen level. If this level is successfully reclaimed, we may see a positive rise toward 208 yen. Similarly, the EUR/JPY pair is trying to achieve some positive movements.
EUR/JPY Analysis
The EUR/JPY pair is currently focused on the 55-day moving average. Regaining control of the bullish momentum will not be achieved until buying pressure returns to the 166 yen level.
EUR/GBP Analysis
The EUR/GBP pair is trading in a bearish trajectory, with prices continuing to stay below 0.85500. The bearish scenario targets 0.85 and 0.83 in the upcoming phase.
USD/TRY Analysis
The USD/TRY pair continues its upward trend, targeting levels of 34.50 and 35 lira in the medium term, supported by rising prices above the 33.50 lira level.
Bitcoin vs. USD Analysis
Bitcoin continues to move within a positive scenario, attempting to break the 60,000 level. If this breakout is successful, prices could rise to 68,000 and 75,000. The positive scenario will be nullified if prices fall below 60,000.
Ethereum vs. USD Analysis
Ethereum continues to trade under selling pressure, with expectations of a decline toward 2,000 if prices remain below 2,800.
Ripple vs. USD Analysis
Ripple maintains its gains, with prices remaining above 55 cents, supporting the potential rise toward 75 cents.
Gold Analysis
Gold remains in an uptrend as long as prices trade above the 2,460 level per ounce. Current economic expectations suggest a possible interest rate cut, which could support gold prices in the medium term. Breaking the 2,460 support level will indicate a potential trend reversal.
Oil Analysis
Crude oil remains under selling pressure, with further declines expected if prices do not break the 73 level per barrel. A successful breakout above this level could push oil prices toward 77 per barrel.
Silver Analysis
If silver fails to hold the support level at 29, we may see a decline toward 27.5 in the short term.
Natural Gas Analysis
The analysis of natural gas suggests difficulty in maintaining the support level at 2.20, potentially leading to further price declines toward 1.56.
Dow Jones Analysis
The Dow Jones Index failed to break the resistance level at 41,000 points, indicating a possible correction toward the 40,000 level in the medium term.
S&P 500 Analysis
A drop in the S&P 500 below the support level at 5,500 points could lead to further declines in the future.
Nasdaq 100 Analysis
The Nasdaq 100 may face corrective moves if it fails to exceed the 20,000 level, potentially retesting 19,250.
Russell 2000 Analysis
The Russell 2000 Index remains stable above 225 points, with any declines considered natural corrections.
FTSE Analysis
The FTSE Index continues its positive trend, but failure to break the 8,300 level could lead to a correction toward 8,150.
DAX Analysis
The DAX Index in Germany remains in a positive direction, with a continuation of the uptrend expected only after surpassing 18,650.
CAC Analysis
The CAC Index in France failing to break the 7,600 level may lead to a correction toward 7,200.
Nikkei Analysis
The Nikkei Index in Japan maintains its gains above 37,000 points, with the potential for a rise toward 41,000 and 44,000 in the medium term.idated if prices break below the 37,000 point level, leading to deep corrective sell-offs.
Inverse H&S I see an inverse head & shoulders on the USDX and EUR has a head & shoulders. Watching to see if this plays out!!
DXY is set for a bounce from down hereStrong theme to my analysis just now around US dollar. I think it should bounce from down here and generally feel as though all other majors have rallied to hard against it of the last week. Today might be volatile and it the DXY may flush lower but I don't dollar weakness will be sustained much longer.
The overwhelming fundamental driving the weakness seems to be rate cuts. I don't think the Fed will do more than 25 basis points in September and so once that's clarified I think the narrative might shift to issues and rate cuts needed in other parts of the world.
Can Mr $$ reach the golden pocket!!!Interesting where the POC sits at the golden pocket of the whole move!!
Elliott Wave View on US DollarThe US Dollar continued to trade lower this month, i'm more favoring the alt count and the idea that triangle is complete at the moment. Both counts suggest a similar scenario in the longer run, so will remain bearish for now. #elliottwave #dollar #trading
Why I am getting very Cautious trading Long - Gold / Precious M
USDX has really fallen off a cliff this week & this lowering of the USD has been supportive of Gold & all at a time when Gold has been bided up a bit too much & making the Gold price overbought on the Stochastic's higher-time-frames.
With USDX and the Gold-price having an inverse relationship, my chart shows just how much the USD has been oversold this week on the important 4HR, Daily & Weekly Stochastics.
A strong cross-up on the 20 level could signal a rally in USDX soon, I tip it will rally next week if not before finding strength during late Thursday and Friday trading.
There is a tonne of economic news coming out today Thursday morning, will it be a mixed bag and what impact will have on the Gold price and USDX... We will know later.
DXY Analysis - Is there light at the end of the tunnel?DXY tested support around 100.5 and is currently around 100.8, well below 4HR 50MA. Reclaiming 4HR 50MA, a reversal pattern in the support zone from 100 or 1W 200MA could signal a reversal and/or recovery. Closing below 1W 200MA could signal further weakness. Jobless Claims at 14:30 and PMI at 15:45.
Levels discussed on 22nd August22nd August
DXY: Needs to break 101.10 to trade down to 100.80 (strong support), could range between 100.80 and 101.60
NZDUSD: Buy 0.6170 SL 20 TP 45
AUDUSD: Looking for reaction at 0.68 resistance level
GBPUSD: Buy 1.3060 SL 30 TP 75
EURUSD: Buy 1.1100 SL 30 TP 60
USDJPY: Sell 144.40 SL 50 TP 100
USDCHF: Sell 0.8490 SL 20 TP 40
USDCAD: Sell 1.3570 SL 30 TP 45
Gold: Some upside potential to 2518, beyond that, could trade up to 2530 (ATH)
DXY remains under pressureFrom a technical perspective, DXY extended its decline as the price approached the 100.80 support. A break below this level could prompt a further decline, with 99.80 as the next potential support. Conversely, a rebound above 100.80 could prompt a pullback to retest the 102.50 resistance. MACD remains below the zero threshold, indicating potential for further downside.
From a fundamental perspective, expectations for the Fed's easing cycle following softer US economic data drove the dollar's decline. Markets are pricing in around a 90 bps rate cut by the end of this year as the labor market cools. Elsewhere, US politics remain in the spotlight with the upcoming general election in November.
