DXY Mar. 28All currencies appearing in this post are fictitious. Any resemblance to real currencies, existing or dead, is purely coincidental.
USDX trade ideas
DXY next possible moveWe are waiting for our asset to reach our action zone, and based on the reaction, we’ll decide on our next moves.ALWAYS WAIT FOR A CONFIRMATION TO SEE IF THE PRICE VALIDATES THE ZONE.and you what is your vision of the EURUSD its interests me! i wait you in the commentary
DXY Is Bullish! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for DXY.
Time Frame: 6h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 104.402.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 105.208 level soon.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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DOLLAR INDEX Good Day Fellow Traders
We have seen that the Dollar has stopped trending at 110 area as market on the chart as a weekly level of resistance, with thus we have closely been tracking the cot index which indicates that a correction is due, although there has not been much action of impulsive move down, we do expect at least a 3-wave pullback down to the 105 area, should this level break it open the chart for a drop down to the weekly level at 104.00.
Yesterday we had a higher inflation reading, with trump policies in action we could expect more of the same higher volatile moves to come and USD to be the dominant trading currency under the rain of Trump. My personal opinion would be to stay away from forex pairs and rather shift focus to swing and position trade the global indices as political turmoil will affect currencies most, look at monthly, weekly and daily charts(entries) with wide stops
Dollar near term strenght coming, Weekly demand holdingThe DOllar has been in a decline over the last couple of months, We can see from tracking how the COT INDEX
COT Index in Forex for 6 months and 36 months
The 6-month and 36-month time frames typically refer to the historical analysis of COT data for specific currency pairs, providing insights into:
6-month COT Index:
This reflects the trading positions over the past 6 months.
It shows the trends in how market participants (e.g., hedge funds or commercial traders) have been positioned recently.
Traders typically use this shorter time frame to gauge recent trends and near-term sentiment.
A higher COT Index value indicates that speculators have a larger net long position, suggesting potential bullish sentiment, and vice versa for a lower COT Index.
36-month COT Index:
This reflects the trading positions over the past 3 years.
It provides a longer-term view of trader positioning, helping to identify historical trends and market cycles.
A higher 36-month COT Index suggests persistent bullish positioning over the longer term,
we can see the Dollar has been bought up at WEEKLY Demand, we will start looking for a shift to buy the Dollar on a daily chart.
DXY has broken the bearish structure on D1DXY has broken the bearish structure on D1.
Signaling a corrective uptrend.
Wait to buy at 103.65
Stoploss at: 103.1
TP at: 107.19
DXY:Pay attention to the retest of the daily chart supportOn Tuesday, the price of the US Dollar Index generally declined. The intraday price peaked at 104.444, bottomed out at 103.917, and closed at 104.189.
From the perspective of the daily chart, the level of 103.80 below serves as a crucial watershed for the wave trend. As long as the price remains above this level, a short-term bullish position is advisable for the time being. Meanwhile, the short-term support of the four-hour chart is in the 104.10 area. Currently, the price in the short term is fluctuating and is likely to continue to retest the support area of the daily chart. Therefore, in trading operations, focus on the support of the daily chart and anticipate an upward movement.
Trading strategy:
buy@103.70-103.80
TP:104.50-105.00
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DXY bullish breakout 25 MarPrice closed above resistant line and turned bullish
Now usd look bullish and any pullback should be use to load up usd longs
Hence, eurusd, gbpusd, audusd etc should be bearish at least for the short term, unless price close below uptrend channel.
Good luck.
US Dollar's Worst Month Since 2023: DXY Faces Make-or-Break The greenback ends Q1 under pressure as soft inflation data, central bank divergence, and rising risk appetite weigh on the long-term outlook.
📉 A Fragile Finish to Q1 for the Dollar
As we close out March and head into Q2, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is on track for its worst monthly performance since December 2023, erasing nearly half of its four-month rally. From a high of 110.00 in January 2025, the index has dropped to a recent low of 102.84, highlighting growing fragility in the dollar's long-term structure.
The 7.2% slide since the start of the year reflects shifting expectations around Federal Reserve policy, global interest rate convergence, and an increase in risk-on sentiment. With the DXY trading around 103.80 at the time of writing, bulls are struggling to reclaim momentum above the critical 104.00 barrier—a zone that has served as both support and resistance over the last eight months.
🔍 What's Driving the Weakness?
Several fundamental forces have contributed to the dollar's Q1 decline:
📉 1. Cooling Inflation and Dovish Fed Signals
February and March inflation prints came in softer than expected, leading markets to price in rate cuts sooner than the Fed's official guidance. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has maintained a cautious tone, but recent FOMC minutes and commentary from regional presidents suggest that a mid-year rate cut is increasingly likely—a development that undermines the dollar's yield advantage.
🌍 2. Global Central Bank Catch-Up
The European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) have recently resisted premature rate cut expectations, with hawkish commentary supporting their respective currencies. Meanwhile, Japan's move away from the ultra-loose monetary policy has lifted the yen, reducing the dollar's appeal as a carry-trade favourite.
💹 3. Equities, Risk-On Sentiment, and Gold Strength
The S&P 500's record highs, strong demand for emerging markets, and gold's breakout to new all-time highs are clear indicators of a market rotating into risk assets and inflation hedges—further weakening safe-haven demand for the dollar.
📊 Technical Analysis: 104.00 Is the Line in the Sand
The DXY's decline from 110.00 has retraced 50% of the four-month rally, with a firm low found at 102.84 earlier this month. While that level has provided near-term support, upside momentum remains capped below 104.00, a multi-month resistance level that must be reclaimed to reestablish bullish control.
🔺 Key Resistance Levels:
104.00 – Multi-month pivot zone, critical for trend shift
104.46 – Minor breakout level; confirmation of bullish continuation
105.96 – Short-term upside target if 104.46 is cleared
🔻 Key Support Zones:
103.58–103.25 – Minor support zone just below current levels
102.84 – March low; major near-term support
102.39–102.00 – Final downside target if 102.84 fails
A break below 102.84 could accelerate bearish momentum into the 102.00 psychological level, especially if April's macro data confirms a slowing US economy or rising expectations for rate cuts.
🧭 April's Outlook: All Eyes on 104.00
The month of April will be pivotal in shaping the medium- to long-term outlook for the dollar. Key catalysts to watch include:
March jobs report (NFP) – Signs of labour market cooling will intensify rate cut bets.
Core PCE inflation – The Fed's preferred inflation gauge could confirm the disinflation trend.
Geopolitical developments – Ongoing tensions in the Red Sea, Taiwan, and Ukraine could spark temporary safe-haven flows, but may not be enough to reverse the downtrend.
Unless the DXY can close April above 104.46, it risks confirming a longer-term bearish reversal, which could open the door to sub-100 scenarios later in the year—especially if US macro data continues to soften and global rate differentials tighten further.
🔄 Scenarios to Watch: Bulls Need a Breakout
📈 Bullish Scenario:
Price holds above 103.25, reclaims 104.00, and breaks 104.46
Momentum builds toward 105.96
April data surprises to the upside, delaying Fed cuts
📉 Bearish Scenario:
Rejection at 104.00, breakdown below 102.84
Push into 102.00 support zone or lower
April macro data reinforces dovish narrative, equity strength continues
⚠️ Final Thoughts: Cautious Tone, Technical Pressure
The US dollar is ending Q1 under clear technical and fundamental pressure, with the DXY sitting at a critical inflection point. While the March low at 102.84 may hold in the short term, failure to break above 104.00–104.46 will leave the index vulnerable to further downside.
With central bank divergence fading and risk appetite on the rise, the greenback's role as a defensive play is weakening. Unless April delivers a surprise upside catalyst, the path of least resistance appears to remain lower.
DXY index UpdateRegardless of Powell's comments, the dollar index might rise toward the target range after a price correction.
DXY Flow conceptsThe **flow concept** in trading refers to the way markets move, either easily or with difficulty, in an upward or downward direction. It is a critical tool for traders to anticipate price movements and market behavior.
Key Points:
1. Types of Flow:
- Good Flow: Market moves easily in the expected direction, aligning with targets.
- Poor Flow: Market struggles or moves contrary to expectations.
2. Indicators of Flow:
- Range and direction of the bar.
- Location of the close within the bar (near highs or lows suggests direction).
- Degree of progress toward expected targets within an envelope system.
3. Using Flow in Trading:
- Flow helps traders anticipate targets and identify when market behavior deviates from expectations.
- It integrates multiple timeframes: higher time periods (HTP), lower time periods (LTP), and focus time periods (FTP).
4. Energy and Strength:
- Flow derives from the energy between support and resistance levels (e.g., PL Dot, envelope confines).
- Observing energy shifts at key levels helps predict future price movements.
5. Practical Applications:
- Monitor Real-Time Flow: Recognize changes in direction or strength to adjust strategies.
- Avoid Stops with Flow: Understanding flow can reduce reliance on stop-loss orders by enabling better decision-making.
Conclusion:
The flow concept emphasizes studying and monitoring market behavior dynamically, leveraging multi-timeframe analysis and energy zones. Mastery of flow allows traders to anticipate changes, make informed decisions, and reduce errors.
DXY - Market Structre DXY - Market Structre - long probability, simple and easy , clean chart, and use trade and risk managment
DXY:Maintain a long position above the daily line supportOn Monday, the price of the US Dollar Index generally showed an upward trend. On that day, the price rose to a maximum of 104.422, dropped to a minimum of 103.814, and closed at 104.285. Looking back at the price performance on Monday, after the opening in the morning, the price initially came under pressure and declined in the short term.
Subsequently, when the price reached the 103.80-90 area, it stopped falling and then started to rise, and finally closed with a large bullish candlestick on the daily chart. Currently, since the retracement and rally on Monday have provided confirmation, if the price remains above the 103.80 level in the subsequent period, a swing long position can be taken.
In the short term, on the four-hour chart, attention should be temporarily paid to the support in the range of 104.00-104.10. After the price reaches this level in the future, further upward movement should be observed. In the short term, attention should be paid to the resistance in the area of 104.50-104.90 on the upside.
Trading strategy:
buy@104.00-104.10
TP:104.50-104.90
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DXY ready to continue lower!!! Please, SELLAfter the big ride down, I decided to pause and then trade cross-pairs and all of them did well. Go check for yourself on my page.
I was also waiting for dxy to range or retrace before it continues lower and I think it has done so. I dont like posting trades I'm not in as that will be deceiving you guys.
I've already entered. Whatever the outcome, the overall trend is bearish.
My overall target for DXY still remain 98.
Ya gazie
Dollar Index Outlook 1HWe're in a correction A-B-C pattern typically wave A and C are equal so we can expect further upside to complete the Zig-Zag.
Wave A is a diagonal pattern, wave B is flat, and wave C is an impulse.
Dxy*Possible Projection:*
*Bullish Scenario:* If the DXY breaks above the minor resistance near 104.5, it could test 107.939 and possibly move toward 110.148 in a recovery.
DXY new quarter. Bullish The new quarter has kicked in . DXY is looking bullish
Seasonal Tendacies are suggesting higher prices
There's been a Change of character
US Dollar Weakens: Hedge Funds Shift to Short PositionsThe U.S. dollar, long considered a bastion of stability, is facing a significant shift in sentiment as hedge funds begin to adopt a bearish stance. This reversal, marking a notable change since the period following Donald Trump's election, is driven by a complex interplay of economic uncertainties and evolving market expectations.
Factors Driving the Bearish Turn:
• Shifting Federal Reserve Expectations:
o A key driver of this bearish sentiment is the evolving outlook on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Initially, expectations of a strong dollar were bolstered by projections of limited Fed rate cuts. However, growing concerns about the fragility of the U.S. economy have led to increased expectations of multiple rate reductions. This shift in expectations weakens the dollar's appeal.
• Economic Uncertainty and Trade Policies:
o Concerns surrounding potential trade wars and the impact of certain economic policies are also weighing on the dollar. Uncertainty about future trade relations and their potential impact on U.S. economic growth is creating apprehension among hedge fund managers.
o The impacts of possible public sector job cuts, and restrictive immigration policies, are also adding to the economic uncertainty.
• Data from the CFTC:
o Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reveals a clear trend. Speculative traders have moved from holding significant long-dollar positions to net short positions, indicating a substantial shift in market sentiment.
• Global Economic Factors:
o The relative strength of other global economies also plays a role. If other global economies are showing signs of stronger growth, that can also put downward pressure on the dollar.
Implications of a Weaker Dollar:
• Impact on Global Trade:
o A weaker dollar can have significant implications for global trade, potentially making U.S. exports more competitive while increasing the cost of imports.
• Inflationary Pressures:
o A depreciating dollar can also contribute to inflationary pressures within the U.S. as import prices rise.
• Investment Flows:
o Changes in the dollar's value can influence international investment flows, as investors adjust their portfolios in response to currency fluctuations.
Market Analysis:
• Analysts are closely monitoring these developments, with some revising their dollar forecasts downward. The shift in hedge fund positioning underscores the growing uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economic outlook.
• It is important to understand that the currency markets are very dynamic, and things can change rapidly.
• The effects of political events, and world wide economic changes can have very large effects on the dollar.
In essence, the shift in hedge fund sentiment reflects a growing recognition of the complex economic challenges facing the U.S. As these challenges unfold, the dollar's trajectory will remain a key focus for investors and policymakers alike.
USD INDEXPrice is currently in wave 4 of C, with the correction likely ending around 101.500. Expect a rebound towards 105.20 before the downtrend continues. From there, we should see a resumption of the bearish momentum, pushing price towards the 101.500 level. Keep an eye on price action around 101.500 for confirmation of the Wave 5 completion. A strong bullish candle or a break above a minor resistance level in that area would signal a good entry point for a long position, targeting 105.20. However, be prepared to cut losses if the level fails to hold and price breaks lower. Conservative traders might wait for a confirmed rejection at 105.20 before entering short positions, aiming for the 98.00 target. Trade safe and manage your risk.
DXY March 23 Analysis and 24 IdeaDXY
March 24
Price parent bias is bear
Price is Discount M/W/D
Previous session Premium and discount on the daily range
No News
March 23 Analysis
I suspect that Price is gravitating to the buy stop target noted and the daily SIBI is search of higher prices at the beginning of the week, and celebrate Price did. Wicking to the March 6 buy stop. On the daily range Price is coming up to the 50 level.
Price in a Premium took session buy stops, lowered to equal sell stops in a discount in London, then rallied to March 6 buy stops and up into the Daily BISI. Great delivery.
Premium to discount to Premium. Expanded higher creating equal highs in Asia, to retrace, consolidate in London, to reverse in NY and close consolidating in a premium.
*Note the event horizon is to the sell side
March 24 Idea
I would like to see Price come down in Asia and London to the 50 maybe take the equal sell stops at the .618 and could rally for higher prices in NY.
I consider that until Asia delivers all above could change. I also consider that no news today or tomorrow could create high resistance days, stay sharp.
Dollar forming bullish pullback to cover imbalance. Dollar still bearish Feds still looking to cut rates. HOWEVER, Dollar has landed on a solid weekly support that can help DXY reach them imbalances. This may take a week or two to finish before the dollar starts to drop again.
DXY / Dollar Index Market Heist Plan (Scalping / Day Trade)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
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Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the DXY / Dollar Index Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸"Take profit and treat yourself, traders. You deserve it!💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the MA breakout (104.550) then make your move - Bullish profits await!"
however I advise to Place Buy stop orders above the Moving average (or) Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level.
📌I strongly advise you to set an alert on your chart so you can see when the breakout entry occurs.
Stop Loss 🛑:
Thief SL placed at the recent/swing low level Using the 1H timeframe (103.800) Day trade basis.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
🏴☠️Target 🎯: 105.400 (or) Escape Before the Target
🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
DXY / Dollar Index Market Heist Plan (Scalping / Day Trade) is currently experiencing a bullishness,., driven by several key factors.
📰🗞️Get & Read the Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, Quantitative Analysis, Sentimental Outlook, Intermarket Analysis, Index-Specific Analysis, Positioning and future trend targets.. go ahead to check 👉👉👉
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
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24 March 2025I love speaking my mind and dropping trading knowledge, please listen and go and backtest.
