USDX trade ideas
DXYDXY Index
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves
Break of Structure
Falling Wedge as an Corrective Patten in Short Time Frame and Long Time Frame
Order Block
Change of Characteristics
U.S. Dollar IndexU.S. Dollar Index - Daily
Dear traders,
I sincerely apologize for my absence during this time; I have lost my father, who has passed away. I have not been well over the past two weeks, and I regret not being able to provide an analysis.
DXY Chart Update
I have updated the DXY chart and present it to you now. We know that in smart money analysis, it shows us the primary market trend structure, and by mapping the daily structure, it indicates that this chart is in an upward trend. Currently, we are looking for suitable areas to buy the dollar.
Confirmation of Major High and Market Movements
After confirming the major high with the price reaching the first standard pullback, which I indicated on the chart with IDM, and ultimately reaching the Decisional Order Block, we experienced a good upward move together with a proper buy. However, unfortunately, our major high was not broken, and the market pursued a downward phase towards the IFC Candles.
Current Status and Key Levels
Now, at the beginning of this week, with the price reaching this important IFC block and receiving confirmation in the 4-hour timeframe, we can set our target at the important resistance level of 109.533, which I have designated as my first target. Additionally, there is a 4-hour resistance at the price of 107.182 that should be closely monitored.
Based on this dollar chart, this week we can look to sell euros, pounds, Australian dollars, and New Zealand dollars while buying Japanese yen, Canadian dollars, and Swiss francs. However, it is essential that we also examine other charts and find entry points on those charts as well. My focus this week is on buying the dollar and selling other currencies. I will be updating the entry points for the other charts today and sharing them in my channel.
Fundamental News
In his latest speech, Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, emphasized the continuation of contractionary policies to control inflation and mentioned the ongoing strengthening of the dollar. He highlighted positive signs in the U.S. economic growth, which increases the likelihood of a rise in the dollar's value this week.
Source: Jerome Powell's speech at the Federal Reserve meeting, February 2025.
Wishing you all success!
Fereydoon Bahrami
A retail trader in the Wall Street Trading Center (Forex)
Risk Disclosure:
Trading in the Forex market is risky due to high price volatility. This analysis is solely my personal opinion and should not be considered financial advice. Please do your own research. You are responsible for any profits or losses resulting from this analysis.
My model say DXY will retrace smallI just saw a possibility of a small retracement in DXY. You can take it as a trade advise or wait for an opportunity to sell higher.
I'm still overall bearish, till around year end, it's just that I saw a possibility of a retracement. I will update you guys when I'm sure it will sell again.
I will like for this move to play out today or next and set the tone for the next leg down.
This is counter trend, trade wisely
DXY is ended rally ? Here's an alternative suggestion.DXY is ended rally ? Here's an alternative suggestion.
Cycle pivot support lines 106.2, 105.7 as starting entries
The main volume is based on building up around 105.36.
This strategy is a very bold move based on the long-term view that DXY will necessarily remain unexpectedly strong in the Trump2.0 tariff trade.
Using a break of 0.618 A as a stop loss, we can continue to add dollar longs to 104.5 below the previous annual pivot point of 105.7
US dollar to 112-113 on a completed gartley. Looks like the dollar is set to head back higher for a run at 112-113. Let’s see if we can catch a bid here.
DXYShort idea. From last supple that broke structure. In line with weaker fundamental data and stronger Euro. Waiting for confirmation from these to levels. More confident with the higher supply zone. Would correlate with key demand zone for EU.
USD Bulls on the RopesThe US dollar (USD) – per the US Dollar Index – is on track to end February on the ropes following January’s monthly indecision candle at the resistance of 109.33. I believe USD bears have space to drive towards a ‘local’ descending support around 105.40ish, extended from the high of 107.35.
Similarly, the daily timeframe demonstrates scope for sellers to strengthen their grip. Last week witnessed the Index reject resistance at 107.05, drawing focus towards an ‘alternate’ AB=CD from 105.77 (the 1.272% Fibonacci projection ratio). For those unfamiliar with Harmonic trading, an alternate AB=CD is simply an extended equal AB=CD formation using either 1.272% or 1.618% Fibonacci projection ratios. Interestingly, not only does the alternate AB=CD pattern share chart space with daily support at 105.62, but these daily levels are located just north of the monthly timeframe’s descending support line underlined above. Consequently, although there is room for bears to take control in the short to medium term, the combination of the monthly and daily support levels could entice profit-taking and encourage fresh long positions into the market, should we reach said area.
Given monthly and daily charts echoing a bearish vibe, I will primarily focus on short-term resistance levels this week. One standout area of H1 resistance is between 107.24 and 107.14, made up of two trendline resistance lines (drawn from 109.88 and 106.57), a horizontal resistance level and two Fibonacci retracement ratios (78.6% and 38.2%). What is also interesting from a technical perspective is that the above-noted H1 resistance zone converges closely with daily resistance mentioned above at 107.05, therefore should the H1 resistance area be tested, the fact daily resistance is also present could add weight to a bearish showing. Should we fail to reach as high as the H1 zone, my next base case scenario is to watch local H1 supports to cede ground to trigger possible selling opportunities: the 106.43 low, for example.
DXY Will Go UP! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
DXY keeps falling down
But the index will soon
Hit a horizontal support
Level of 103.610 and
After the retest a local
Bullish correction
Will be expected
Buy!
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DXY will be fine (95)The dollar index expects to fall into the 95 area. Regardless of who wins tomorrow, the dollar will fall until 2025. The new government's realization of how sad everything is now will delay the process of a sound market. Vote!
Dollar $ Dump Is the TVC:DXY headed for 4th quarter 2024 levels? The TVC:DXY continues its downward spiral in spectacular fashion as tariff talk and continued global war footing dominate.
DXY Potential Reversal from Key Support | Buy SetupThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has formed a Head and Shoulders pattern on the 4-hour timeframe, signaling a potential bearish trend. After breaking the neckline, DXY has dropped significantly and is now approaching a major demand zone (103.50-104.00), where buying pressure could emerge.
Key levels to watch:
Support Zones: 103.50 - 104.00 (Strong demand area)
Resistance Zones: 105.50 - 106.50 (Previous support turned resistance)
Trade Idea:
Entry: Around 103.50 - 104.00
Target: 106.00 - 106.50
Stop Loss: Below 103.00 (to avoid further downside risk)
Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:3
Impact on Forex Pairs:
If DXY moves up, currency pairs with USD as the base currency (e.g., USD/JPY, USD/CAD, USD/CHF) will likely move higher. On the other hand, pairs where USD is the quote currency (e.g., EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD) will likely move lower as the dollar strengthens.
Conclusion:
If price holds at the 103.50-104.00 support, we may see a short-term bullish move towards 106.00-106.50. However, a break below 103.00 could lead to further downside pressure. Traders should also monitor major USD pairs for potential trade opportunities.
DOLLAR GAINS BUYER AMID NFP BAD DATA??Dollar seems on hold in it's 2.618 fibonacci support after NFP data released. Will it go higher next week?
I see dollar still waiting next data release. I mention JOLTS Job Opening & CPI which both of them crucial in current context of US macro-economy. Strong job opening & CPI means investor and retail trader must be no worries about US macro-economic despite concern about trade war. Otherwise, weak job opening & CPI means labor market and inflation continue cooling down. It will push THE FED to give clear path about their plan for future Interest Rate.
So, dollar could make sideways movement (or even gain buyer) but overall still in bearish momentum. Dollar still driven by concern of trade war and if job opening comes weaker than expected, it could gives more power to seller.
Bearish week forecast on DXYWeekly candle showing strong bearish candle. Potential OHLC
Daily order flow is bearish. Potential internal range to external range move
4h similar to daily, order flow is bearish. Potential internal range to external range move
DXY - 2025 Yearly Outlook - Bearish..."When" not "If"This is a rough yearly outlook for the DXY. I will be updating this as the year goes on (I'll update this idea monthly as I check it).
Right now there is TONS of sell side liquidity open on the DXY, and price may want to attack it.
It's important to monitor its behavior around the 110-112 mark.
I'm bearish on this index overall (1-4 year outlook), but it could definitely have a semi bullish 2025.
SCENARIOS
-If we get a strong breach above that would imply a new 10-year high potential.
-If we hit the 110-112 mark and reverse down under 108 within 30-days of hitting that mark, we are probably going to make a run for sell side liquidity, with the first target being 99.50.
That's all for now.
-Gio
...
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Key Dollar Upward reversal - beginning 6th March
long term weekly timeframe break of structure to the upside. Price has retraced to fill fair value at the 61.8 retracement. Will rebound up off of the longterm trendline. Entry at the key level with a price action signal. Looking for an hourly break of structure and a 4 hourly engulfing. Happy hunting... TVC:DXY
DXY Trading Journal March 7 Analysis DXY Trading Journal
March 7 Analysis
Price has shown strong willingness to seek lower prices. Showing a willingness to come to the FVG pointed out by ICT which it rebalanced in Thursday’s delivery.
Take aways from tape reading this were when there is a liquidity run in play Price showed no signs of retracement to the session 50 level. It shouldn’t if the underlining premise is bearish.
I suspect the FVG failed.
Today is NFC. Will Price seek lower after 3 strong days of dropping. I will wait to see what price does at the previous days session 50 level. We coming up to the .70 level on the HTF. On the HTF this looks like it could be a measured move. Price broke out of the tight range bound after trading in it for a few years, so will it break sept lows and go lower. We are 3 months into a seasonal trend of bearish conditions.
I note the timing of this drop the week Trump spoke to congress. HMMM
USD index $DXY to 100In this blog space we have discussed the FX:EURUSD and TVC:DXY index on 9th Feb. We said it looks like the FX:EURUSD is forming a local bottom, and the chart was showing lot of resilience. And we said that the next stop on FX:EURUSD will be 1.062 which it has recently surpassed. We also prophesized that because 60% of the TVC:DXY is EUR we might see more weakness in USD.
And now we see the TVC:DXY is below its 0.612 Fib retracement level @ 105. In the short term it is heading to 0.5 in the short term @ 102. We have seen that the index always bounced back when TVC:DXY is @ the psychological level of 100. If the TVC:DXY breaks below the support level @ 100 then it might go to 99 and eventually to 95.
But this USD weakness is not bringing any good news to the Stocks and Crypto. We have to wait until we see a final capitulation in $DXY.
If TVC:DXY goes to 95 then FX:EURUSD above 1.15.
the gap closedTVC:DXY CAPITALCOM:DXY
After breaking the trend, which was previously identified, the target areas were reached and the gap was closed.
The bleeding may continue, we are waiting for the behavior at 103, and if the price breaks this area and we do not witness a rebound from here, I think we will continue to decline to 100.
here the chart when the price was at 107 and these areas were pre-defined .
DXY chart Anylisis 1Hour check captain DXY chart Anylisis 1Hour idea 💡
Bearish trande
Use proper money management 🤠
$DXY 103.6finally at our line in the sand and confluence of 200 ema on the 3 day
wee bounce here then we break the 200 ema and start moving like jagger
first reaction assuming some sort of squeeze of shorts before more downside
