DXY - soon to the longWe are currently withdrawing liquidity that has accumulated over a couple of years and will go to close the gaps at the top
USDX trade ideas
DXY - Monthly - ShortWe have reached the FVG Monthly, which we have been striving for more than two years.
DXY AMD ANALYSIS AMD concepts per ict
CISD on the monthly level
Weekly imbalance respected
Displacement
DXY Trading JournalDXY Trading Journal
April 20 Analysis
Monday created the weeks low which was then taken on Wednesday.
Price created the high on Tuesday.
Thursday Price in a deep discount from previous day and taking sell side liquidity. Price takes minor buy side and rebalances previous days inefficient delivered price, price closes in a consolidation in a discount.
*Last weeks highlight Price took key lows from July 2023 and rebalanced a BISI from April 2022.
April 20 week ahead
Bias is bear
I would not be surprised if price stays in a tight trading range this week. Price is in a deep discount. I could see Price seek higher prices in the beginning of the week. My longer term idea is for Price to take the noted key equal lows and rebalance 4 hour FVG before I suspect for the DXY will seasonal shift to seeking higher prices.
DXY / Dollar Index Market Heist Plan (Scalping/Day)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
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Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the MA breakout (103.300) then make your move - Bullish profits await!"
however I advise to Place Buy stop orders above the Moving average (or) Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level.
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📍 Thief SL placed at the recent/swing low level Using the 1H timeframe (101.700) Day / Scalping trade basis.
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🏴☠️Target 🎯: 105.000 (or) Escape Before the Target
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DXY update.
WEEKLY TREND IS SUPER BEARISH.
1D swing , and 1D fractals both structures are bearish.
in 2h tf -> price gave 1st fakeout then took out liquidity, and later it gave
fractals shift .
So to conclude:
I'm BULLISH in XXX / USD pairs and vice versa.
USD index bearish trendThe analyst expects the correction to end when the USDX reaches a value of 101.800. This is the predicted target for the end of the "C" wave of the correction. Once the index hits 101.800 (according to this analysis), the correction is expected to be complete, and the USDX may then resume its previous (likely upward) trend.
In short: The USDX is expected to fall to 101.800 to finish a temporary price dip (correction) that's shaped like an ABC pattern.
Global Market Overview. Part 1: USDXThe Dollar Index is drifting at the key 99.5 mark. This strategic support level, which has held since early 2024, is on the verge of collapsing.
Let’s be clear: this isn’t just about the strength of the dollar. What’s at stake is the monetary sovereignty of the United States, caught between inflation, politics, and election-season hysteria.
And make no mistake — this has nothing to do with technical analysis. What we’re witnessing is a fundamental fire, and Donald Trump and his administration are fanning the flames.
Powell: “Rates remain unchanged.” But for how long?
Just days ago, Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered what seemed to be a firm message:
“We are in a wait-and-see mode. Cutting rates prematurely could do harm.”
“If inflation accelerates, more difficult decisions may follow.”
On the surface — classic hawkish rhetoric. But in reality, this isn’t resolve.
It’s a delay tactic. Even Powell admits:
“The labor market is walking a fine line.”
“Economic growth weakened in Q1.”
“Business sentiment is deteriorating.”
“Tariff policy could lead to stagflation.”
“Political pressure is mounting by the week.”
The Fed says, “It’s too early to cut rates.”
But the market hears something entirely different: “We’re getting close.”
Trump applies pressure
Ahead of the elections, Trump declares:
“If we don’t cut rates now, we’ll lose to China, Europe, and our own markets.”
This isn’t just campaign rhetoric. It’s an open challenge to the Fed’s independence.
And history already tells us what happens when Trump applies pressure — 2019 rate cuts proved he can break through Powell’s defenses.
What the charts are saying
The Dollar Index (USDX) is locked in a persistent downward channel.
The 103.0 support zone has been broken
The 101.17 level remains the final significant support
99.5 is already being tested as a potential sell-off trigger
Below that — only air until 98.0 and 97.5
The technical setup confirms a fundamental truth:
The market no longer believes in the dollar’s strength.
What if the Fed actually cuts rates?
If the Fed moves to cut, USDX will break below 99 and enter a systemic phase of weakening.
Capital will flow into gold (as if it hasn’t already gone far enough), oil, crypto, and high-yield emerging markets.
The United States will lose its competitive edge in monetary policy,
and the dollar will slowly cease to function as the global anchor it once was.
Powell can talk tough all he wants. The market is no longer listening.
The Dollar Index isn’t dropping because rates are already cut — it’s falling because everyone knows it’s just a matter of time.
U.S. monetary policy has lost the initiative, and market expectations have taken over.
Today, the Fed rate is no longer a tool of control. It’s a signal of approaching capitulation.
The question is no longer “Can we hold 99.5?”
The real question is: “What happens after it breaks?”
Manipulation or strategy? Black swans on a leash
Powell’s rate policy, DXY charts, inflation forecasts — all of it loses clarity when the dominant market force is no longer economics, but politics.
We live in an era where markets break not from bad data, but from tweets, briefings, and backroom deals — moves that only reveal themselves in the charts after the fact.
That’s what makes the current cycle the most toxic in the last 15 years.
Markets aren’t just volatile — they’ve become irrational.
Trade war: scalpel in a surgeon’s hand or a bat in a brawler’s grip?
Tariffs aren’t new.
But in Trump’s hands, they’ve evolved — from macroeconomic tools to blunt political weapons.
He uses them as battering rams — to force concessions, corner opponents, and set up ideal conditions for insider gains.
The market reacts exactly as you’d expect:
Tariffs announced — indexes fall
Panic ensues — capital flees into dollars and gold
Within 48 hours — videos surface of Trump and his allies joking about the “hundreds of billions” they made during the crash
This isn’t conspiracy.
It’s already triggered official investigations, but everyone knows: the odds of accountability are near zero.
And that’s the biggest risk for fundamental analysis today:
It’s powerless against narratives crafted behind closed doors.
So who’s really running the market?
Trump is deliberately deflating the bubble. Loudly. Dramatically. On camera.
But the goal isn’t destruction. It’s control.
And while Powell fears making a mistake, Trump fears only one thing — losing control of the narrative.
The market is no longer a field for rational actors.
It has become a battlefield, where officials already understand:
You can control more than just money through the market — you can shape public consciousness.
How not to lose your footing in this chaos?
We’ll break it down in the next part of the Global Market Overview. Stay tuned.
Key Support Level on DXY Index at 97-98In this analysis, I highlight the important support zone for the DXY (US Dollar Index) around the 97-98 level. Monitoring this zone is crucial for understanding potential price movements and trading opportunities.
DXY(Dollar)Dollar is consolidating and its best to wait for it to break out of the high or low. As of now it is in ‘No Mans Land’.
DXY: Bears Are Winning! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DXY together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding below a key level of 99.125 So a bearish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next low. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
USDX-BUY strategy 6 hourly chart Line Brk (2)The USDX is poised to correct, I feel. we are oversold, and it means we may be seeing a return back towards 101.50-101.75 area. this suggest all USD based currencies will correct one way or another.
Strategy BUY @ 99.30-99.80 and take profit near 101.50.
DXY – Key Level Broken, More Downside Ahead?Hello Folks , Long time no see .
The US Dollar Index (DXY) just broke below 106.5, and things are getting interesting. The trend has been weakening, and price is now sitting at a crucial zone.
📌 Here’s what I’m watching:
107.66 is the big resistance. If price can reclaim it, bulls might have a chance.
105.48 & 104.46 are the next major support levels.
👀 My Take:
If we stay below 106.5, I expect more downside towards 105.4 and maybe 103.3. If price bounces and reclaims 107, I’ll reconsider.
What’s your view? More downside or a bounce coming? Drop your thoughts below! 🚀🔥
🚨 Disclaimer:
Just sharing ideas here—this isn’t a trade advice . Everyone sees the market differently, and the goal is to improve our analysis, not tell anyone what to do. At the end of the day, your trades are your call, your responsibility. Trade smart! 🚀📊
Big Drop Ahead on DXY! Smart Money Already Selling!”Idea in Simple Terms:
Bias: Bearish.
Current Position: Wave B or early C.
Action Plan: Look for sell setups in the minor resistance zones.
Final Target: 92.00–94.00 area .
“Key Idea” Illustration:
This shows a simplified roadmap:
DXY is expected to rally slightly into the minor resistance.
Then, a sharp drop toward the blue demand zone, respecting the ABC correction.
DXY IN NEXT 6 MONTHSBIGBOY join the market and now they BUY stocks, what you sell! Becarefull with your assets.
US Dollar Long Term Projection!This is a big if but...
If the USA and the TVC:DXY was to loose its reserve status then this chart would breakdown to the bottom of the blue trend line! This range target is 50% off from current levels!
DXY PROJECTION BY JJJFXTVC:DXY
DXY is clean and clear now. We are trading above the weekly and daily open. Give us crt high as our key level and if price close above the key level we expect price to trade into 50% of the range WkH and WkL. We have two zone above which are fvg and the 50% each fvg is shown.
The DXY shows a downward tendency.In the long run, the implementation of tariffs will prompt trading partners to take countermeasures 😡, resulting in a contraction of the global trade scale 😔. American enterprises will face higher import costs for raw materials, and their export markets will be restricted, thus curbing the economic growth of the United States 😩. This will put depreciation pressure on the US dollar, causing the DXY to decline 📉.
U.S. Tariff Policies
Since April 9th, the United States has levied tariffs ranging from 10% to 25% on goods from China, the European Union, Canada, and other regions. These tariffs cover crucial sectors like automobiles, steel, and semiconductors 😒.
Countermeasures of Various Countries
China: On April 4th, China declared that it would impose a 34% tariff on U.S. goods starting from April 10th. Then, on April 9th, the tariff rate was further hiked to 84%, applying to all U.S. goods 😠.
The European Union: Announced that it would impose a 25% tariff on U.S. motorcycles, diamonds, and other goods as of May 16th 😤.
Canada: On April 9th, imposed a 25% retaliatory tariff on U.S. automobiles, while exempting auto parts 😏.
💰💰💰 DXY 💰💰💰
🎯 Sell@ 100 - 101
🎯 TP 98 - 97
Traders, if you're fond of this perspective or have your own insights regarding it, feel free to share in the comments. I'm really looking forward to reading your thoughts! 🤗
👇The accuracy rate of our daily signals has remained above 98% within a month! 📈 We sincerely welcome you to join our channel and share in the success with us! 👉
Bullish IntradayPrice made a higher high at 99.836, breaking the previous lower high. This suggests a potential shift in structure to bullish. Buy Stops Above Highs: The high at 99.836 likely took out buy stops from traders expecting a breakout above 100.000. ICT emphasizes that smart money often hunts liquidity above equal highs or below equal lows. Bearish Order Block: The green box around 99.750–99.800 (before the drop to 99.500) acts as a bearish order block. This is a zone where institutional selling occurred, leading to the sharp decline. Price briefly retested this zone before rejecting it, confirming its significance. Last scenario would be, Pullback and Reversal: A likely ICT setup would be a pullback to the 99.650 pivot or the 99.500 bullish order block, followed by a move higher to target liquidity above 100.000.
DXY Forms a Contracting Triangle: Awaiting BreakoutDXY Forms a Contracting Triangle: Awaiting Breakout
On the 60-minute chart, DXY has developed a contracting triangle, which is typically a trend continuation pattern, suggesting a potential downward move.
However, since this consolidation is taking time and DXY’s price action remains complex, movement in either direction is possible.
The breakout will ultimately determine the next price direction, but based on current conditions, an upward move seems more likely in the near future.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
How to Trade the Tariff Turmoil: Markets Now Move on HeadlinesMarkets in 2025 have become increasingly unpredictable, largely driven by one factor: tariffs. President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policy has shaken investor confidence and turned global markets into a rollercoaster. The key to navigating this new environment? Understand that markets are no longer just reacting to economic data—they’re reacting to headlines.
The biggest shock came on April 2, when Trump announced a 145% tariff on all Chinese imports and “reciprocal” tariffs on dozens of other countries. The reaction was immediate: the S&P 500 dropped nearly 15% at its lowest point that week, and investors rushed to sell risk assets. Days later, markets sharply reversed after Trump temporarily suspended some tariffs. That sparked a rally—tech stocks soared, Apple rose 5%, and the Nasdaq gained over 2%.
But the relief was short-lived. Conflicting messages and partial rollbacks continued to send markets up and down. Earlier, on March 4, tariffs were placed on Canada and Mexico, while China’s rates were doubled. These moves led to more selling in stocks and a spike in demand for bonds. By mid-April, exemptions for electronics boosted tech names again, but overall market sentiment remained fragile.
How to Trade This New Market
The main lesson for traders and investors is clear:
We’re now in a headline-driven market. Traditional strategies that rely solely on fundamentals or economic cycles are being overshadowed by sudden political developments. Here’s how to adapt:
Stay Nimble and News-Aware
Be ready for fast moves. Market direction can flip in minutes based on a single press conference or tweet. Have alerts set for major geopolitical and tariff-related headlines. Reduce position sizes during uncertainty and avoid holding large trades through major announcements.
Rethink Your Safe Havens
The U.S. dollar is no longer acting like the safe haven it used to be. With rising fiscal concerns and volatile trade policy, investors are shifting toward alternatives. Gold and the Swiss franc (CHF) have become more reliable options during risk-off moments. If uncertainty spikes, these assets may offer better protection than the dollar.
Focus on Sectors Sensitive to Policy
Tech stocks have been among the most affected. Tariff exemptions caused sharp rallies, while new restrictions triggered big drops. If you trade sectors like tech, consumer goods, or industrials, stay especially alert for trade-related headlines.
Bottom line: In 2025, geopolitics is moving markets more than ever. The old playbook needs updating. By staying flexible, tracking headlines, and turning to traditional safe havens like gold and CHF, traders can better navigate the noise—and find opportunity in the chaos.
DXY bullish divergenceDXY is showing a bullish divergence on the 1H timeframe, price made lower lows while RSI made higher lows. This suggests potential upside momentum building up, so a short-term bounce or reversal could be in play. Keep an eye on resistance levels for confirmation.
DXY FORECAST Q1 FY25 : zim dollar dollarBack again with a TVC:DXY doomsday post my judgement at the moment is based of the following reasonings.
📉 Tariffs & Global Trade Impact
Tariffs weaken trade activity: If the U.S. imposes tariffs, it might reduce export competitiveness and disrupt global supply chains. That can lead to lower foreign demand for U.S. dollars, putting downward pressure on the DXY.
Market uncertainty: Investors often move away from riskier assets during trade wars, but if confidence in the U.S. economy declines, they might shift into other safe havens (like gold or the Swiss franc) instead of dollars.
💰 Money Supply Contraction
Dollar scarcity effect: The contraction in M2 money supply could strengthen the dollar temporarily due to reduced liquidity. However, if the Fed eases monetary policy to counter recession fears, it might reverse the effect, weakening the dollar.
📊 Inflation & Real Interest Rates
Sticky inflation: If inflation remains above target (around 2.9%), and tariffs drive consumer prices higher, the Fed may face pressure to hold or hike interest rates — which could eventually support the dollar.
Recession signals: On the flip side, if the economy contracts, rate cuts could come into play, flooding markets with liquidity and pushing the dollar down.
in my opinion
the shrinking money supply points to future deflationary pressures, which historically support the dollar however disruptive trade policies could destabilize growth, undercutting the dollar’s strength.
If tariffs intensify and growth stalls, the dollar may stay weak or decline further despite the contracting money supply. But if the Fed stays firm on inflation control and global instability rises, the dollar could rebound as a safe haven... though this would depend on whether markets believe the U.S. can avoid a full-blown recession.
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