Possible outlook on VIXPatience with this one is the key.
Extreme Greed is quite persistent, and its where I am slowly getting in
This shoots way to fast to trade it, also market is very tricky lately, so I prefer swing on this one.
Good luck
VIX trade ideas
$VIX retesting & possibly breaking in the future?Daily TVC:VIX seems to be heading lower, likely retest 13.
Weekly not much sign of holding, maybe 12?
Longer term the trend from 2020 is obviously broken. Even the monthly can't help now.
There is STAUNCH support @ 13 then 12.
This area has been strong for a long time.
BREAKS? Then 10.
#ViX
$VIX indicating market exhaustionI have been observing this closely.
What I see is use now going to a third retest of a C19 lows forming a triple bottom and effectively indicating end of this bullish move that had carried across since Sep last year.
As we are entering triple-tested overbought condition on CBOE:SPX believe we are holding the final straw waiting for a market catalyst that wil send prices lower.
I also put this in the context of recent wall-street driven CRYPTOCAP:BTC rally and general market anticipation of 40K price milestone and heavily overbought conditions on low volume similar to the double top the past bull market.
CPI over-expected good and Spot ETF will make VIX dropAs Title said, CPI over-expected good in NOV and BlackRock BTC Spot ETF will boost market and VIX drop down in 12-14 range
VIX Volatility Index ~ Trend Analysis (2H Chart)TVC:VIX chart mapping/analysis.
Always been a firm-believer in strong negative correlation with SPX.
Key is not matching SPX highs with VIX lows ie "catching the bottom" - it should be used as a supplementary indicator for overall market direction, by identifying key support/resistance areas for trend switches that aids you in developing a Trading Edge .
Chart Example:
October 2022 peak in VIX marked (temporary?) bottom in SPX
VIX unable to break above ~34 resistance zone after multiple attempts = gives way to lower highs & lower lows (change in trend)
SPX responds by making series of higher highs & higher lows
VIX bottoms around July 2023, unable to break below ~13 resistance zone (ie trend switch)
SPX peaks in July & proceeds to pull back until recent reversal - coinciding with dramatic drop in volatility
This is by no means a done & dusted chart - after all it's called the "Volatility Index" lol.
It will require ongoing tweaking, back-testing & confluence with SPX TA work, as well as vigilance of evolving macro-economic events which get rapidly priced into both indices.
Good luck :)
Note: "SPX TEMP BOTTOM horizontal line should be adjusted higher to sit on VIX peaks - can't edit chart & cbf re-publishing...but you get the idea, cheers.
VIX on the verge on a momentous move?The VIX has been accumulating in the blue rectangle for 4 months and I expect to see some reaction from the lows, coinciding with the arc.
VIX has been beaten hard recently and has been trading extremely low. Only the beginning of 2020 did we see lows similar to this.
This is not trading advice, just an idea.
Cheers, and good luck!
Possible scenario for US indicesPossible scenario for a dull data next week for US30, NAS100 and US500
VIXLooks like VIX is coming home to its range low around 14 and may even break down further to its intra-yearly lows beneath 13
Vix Minor 3: For real this timeUltimately, the last idea was early and invalidated, accordingly. I do think the count is nowripe for a Minor 3 to develop. Price is still 1s and 2s, but over the next 4-6 days, I will be observing short ES and NQ entries and looking to strike. If trading VIX, long entries could be nice, here, because we are in a range and maybe vega available. Plenty of confusion.
In that regard, I want to point out that what looks like Minute ((ii)) in ES actually went lower in VIX, so if this is correct, the way that Vix is calculated may necessarily "force" it break EWT rules. Just an idea that I hear more discussion about. I am no mathematician, but find the query interesting.
Will update as the track unfolds.
Best,
Cuz
VIX: Bullish Deep Gartley with RSI Bullish DivergenceThe S&P Volatility Index has made its way back down and formed a potential Bullish Deep Gartley on the way down. It is slightly diverging on the intraday at this PCZ and is sitting at the 200-Day SMA. If it were to stage a bounce this week, it would be from here and it would likely have a Bullish Target of $22-$25
Market Cycles Correlated to the VIX - With date Illustrations - Market Cycles we climb the wall of worry
I will ad to this soon , in the mean time, look at the years. Don't the coincide perfectly ?
Moment of truthIs VIX breaking out? SPY hit very hard the support trendline, is like it wants break it down. I think we will have a bloody battle at this level, a lot of volatility. Several attempts to break the support. If it breaks it at first attempt, that's it, crash will come. I'm holding my longs and selling covered calls, I'm not selling anything, actually I'm buying stocks and selling calls. Just bought Intel and Newmont yesterday. If crash happens, it will probably last a few months, I'm ok with that. In the mean time I'm selling calls and collect dividends. I will only sell stocks that I don't like much, only a few ones.
VIX iH&S. Is it coming time of max fearLooks like VIX Volatily Index is ready to reverse, which could indicate lot of fear in stock and indices market. Inverted head and shoulder, right shoulder in formation, could trigger any moment.
VIX - High Volatility coming?Think that in the next days with with the last (maybe) raise in interest rates the markets will start to discount on the effects that high interest rates >5.25% (maybe on Thursday) will have on the markets.
VIX - A storm is brewingTVC:VIX may have reached a significant bottom during today's volatile trading session. As seen below, the recent rug pull shown on the 1D chart has finally concluded; almost to the exact penny.
When we step back and look at the weekly timeframe, VIX is currently bouncing higher off of a major bullish divergence that was built up over the past several months.
The RSI is also retesting the neutral line (50) and TVC:VIX itself has closed on a major support level.
If TVC:VIX continues its move higher next week, we could see a significant drop in the S&P500
Disclaimer:
Any information contained within this post does not constitute any financial, investment, or trading advice. Trade or invest at your own risk.
Volatility will continue to pick up Remember periods of contraction lead to periods of expansion. Periods of low volatility lead to periods of high volitility!
Time for Volatility? Matching up with the sell signals on indices we have support levels in the VIX.
Maybe it's time for something interesting.
The things of the scope I am talking usually come with news.
$VIX showing topping signsVery important to keep eye on the $VIX.
So far today we have a HUGE reversal AND a possible Bearish Engulfing.
SP:SPX AMEX:SPY #SPX #SPY #VIX
#stocks #StockMarket
VIX Clears 20-21, On Capitulation WatchAfter the VIX sagged to under 13 at times in the third quarter, October has brought about the bears and higher volatility, as if on seasonal cue. The S&P 500 peaked in late July right when many mega-cap tech stocks reported second-quarter earnings results. The AI-fueled rally that gave equities legs following the SVB crisis in mid-March finally lost steam.
The S&P 500 is now a stone's throw away from "correction territory" off the 4607 rebound peak a few months ago. The psychological level to watch is 4146 (-10%). As of this writing, equity futures point to an SPX near 4200 - below its rising 200-day moving average and testing the breakout point from late May. What could surprise some bulls would be a break under 4200 followed by a snapback higher.
All eyes are on the VIX. Wall Street's "fear gauge" has jumped to 23 this morning. While not screaming panic, the Volatility Index is at its loftiest level since March. The Q3 high of 31 could be in play, but I also notice that a series of lower highs has been the trend since way back in January of 2022 (39). Thus, it's reasonable to assert that the high 20s on the VIX could be the peak this go around. Of course, bullish stock seasonality really takes hold following this week (though pre-election years tend to see somewhat weaker Novembers compared to all years).
Incoming VIX liquidityI'm expecting a great deal of volatility in the coming weeks with the VIX having broken a key psychological level, created a CHoCH, and continued rising, leaving behind some liquidity in the FVG-W below. LOTS of liquidity lies above at the daily and H4 levels and the VIX is likely to reach for these levels.
Why is this important? Well VIX and most indices (DAX, DOW, NAS in particular) move contratrend to the VIX, and so if the VIX is trending bullish, I'd expect these to (continue to) trend bearish. With NAS, price is currently b/w the 70.5 and 61.8 monthly Fib levels, a key bearish signal, headed towards liquidity resting in the FVG-M below. The same is true for DAX, which has already pierced the FVG-M. DOW is also in a strong bearish trend, but price is already resting between the 61.8 and 50.0 monthly Fib levels. As a result of this, I am strongly bearish on indices for the upcoming week, and will be looking for reactions(institutional sponsorship) on the H1 & m15 for entries on the m5/m3/m1, but please note that actual execution will rely on time and price. Happy Trading 😋
W1 VIX:
H4 VIX:
M1 DAX:
H4 DAX:
M1 DOW:
H4 DOW:
M1 NAS:
H4 NAS:
VIXFinally closed above the trendline after a few weeks of indecision. Get ready for some volatility if VIX is above the black line. I don't make the rules.
