Black Swan Is HereThe BBWP Indicator on the VIX weekly chart suggests a looming 'black swan' event, characterized by a sudden spike in market volatility following a period of calm. This pattern, previously seen before major market shifts like the SVB Bank collapse and COVID, signals an impending rise in the VIX. Current data points to a significant volatility increase starting January 16th, peaking around early March 2024, within a 52-day window. The anticipated increase is around 287.84%, with a potential fluctuation range (standard deviation) of 193.32%. This translates to a VIX range between 25.64 and 76.60, peaking between February 11th and April 3rd, 2024. Historical instances support this forecast, showing substantial VIX rises over varied durations. Investors are advised to stay vigilant and prepare for possible dramatic market changes. In other words, "hold onto your butts."
The raw data for the past six iterations shows that the VIX has increased by 337.27% over 70 days, 52.79% over 21 days, 452.16% over 34 days, 221.04% over 91 days, 588% over 70 days, and 75.75% over 28 days. This data indicates that investors should be cautious and prepare themselves for potential market shifts, as this scenario could represent a significant threat to market stability and profitability.
