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VIX Weekly Forecast Analysis 3-7 Oct 2022 VIX Weekly Forecast Analysis 3-7 Oct 2022 We can see that currently the volatility is around 14.08% for this week, decrising from the 14.3% from the last week. Currently there is around 35.5% that the asset is going to close either above or below the channel: TOP 37.72 BOT 28.28 The current volatility percentile is around 15th. With this situations in general the market moves: AVG weekly bull candle = 12.73% AVG weekly bear candle = 9.15% With this mind, from the opening price it would situate us around TOP 37.2 BOT 29.98 At the same time, due to the nature of the opening price, making this weekly candle a bearish candle, there is currently a 37% that we will break the ath of previous weekly candle of 35, and there is a 60% that we will touch the low of the previous week of 29.4 From the technical analysis point of view: The majority of moving averages ranging from 10 to 200, are currently around 92% agreement that the market is in a bearish trend ( the current price is above those moving averages) News that can affect the price of this asset this week: - Monday 3 October : ISM PMI - Tuesday 4 October : JOLT Job - Wednesday 5 October : ADP and ISM release - Thursday 6 October : Initial Jobless Claims and ECB Report - Friday 7 October: Nonfarm Payrolls
TVC:VIXLong
by exlux
VIX Feels Like a Smoldering Volcano 🌋 Post-2020 Parabolic MoveThe consolidation pattern in the $VIX goes back to June 2020 after the initial COVID flash-crash scenario. From June '21 to November '21, you started to see a bottoming formation turning into a new uptrend , subtle as might've been. The uptrend has chopped around in this rising channel since the end of 2021 up until the recent false breakdown during August 2022. This head fake has allowed the $VIX to retake the bottom of the channel and continue up and up after every headline the market fears. Despite the approach of overbought levels, the bear market rally on Wednesday, September 28 gave volatility room to run. It appears probable a consolidation pattern around 36-38 will level off the relative strength as of late, occurring for the month of October when the market could stage a short-term rally. Coincidentally, this will set up the $VIX right into the midterm elections... To be clear, sirens won't start popping off on $SPY $QQQ and $DIA until a decisive, sustained move over 36.79 occurs. If that happens, a move to 47.20 seems like a no-brainer. Notably, that is a test of the top of the rising channel , confirming 2 technical scenarios with the midterm elections as the catalyst for the next leg. Keep your head on a swivel and keep an eye on the volatility of $VIX $TLT and $DXY for directional signposts in the broader market. Also, it's important to remember Jerome Powell and other Fed officials, Russian tensions, Europe energy or monetary headlines, and CPI could all eliminate this hypothesis.
TVC:VIXLong
by zwburger
VIX Feels Like a Smoldering Volcano 🌋 Post-2020 Parabolic MoveThe consolidation pattern in the TVC:VIX VIX goes back to June 2020 after the initial COVID flash-crash scenario. From June '21 to November '21, you started to see a bottoming formation turning into a new uptrend , subtle as might've been. The uptrend has chopped around in this rising channel since the end of 2021 up until the recent false breakdown during August 2022. This head fake has allowed the TVC:VIX to retake the bottom of the channel and continue up and up after every headline the market fears. Despite the approach of overbought levels, the bear market rally on Wednesday, September 28 gave volatility room to run. It appears probable a consolidation pattern around 36-38 will level off the relative strength as of late, occurring for the month of October when the market could stage a short-term rally. Coincidentally, this will set up the TVC:VIX right into the #MidTerms... To be clear, sirens won't start popping off on AMEX:SPY , NASDAQ:QQQ , and AMEX:DIA until a decisive, sustained move over 36.79 occurs. If that happens, a move to 47.20 seems like a no-brainer. Notably, that is a test of the top of the rising channel , confirming 2 technical scenarios with the midterm elections as the catalyst for the next leg. Keep your head on a swivel and keep an eye on volatility of TVC:VIX , NASDAQ:TLT , and TVC:DXY for directional signposts in the broader market. Also, it's important to remember Jerome Powell and other Fed officials, Russian tensions, Europe energy or monetary headlines, and CPI could all eliminate this hypothesis.
TVC:VIXLong
by zwburger
1
Short term bearish VIXHey all, I think the VIX is going to pull back in the near future, but will eventually break out and head higher; the VIX has already been rejecting at resistance here, and I expect it to cool off before we see true capitulation int he stock market. I've noticed the VIX hasn't really spiked despite the market falling to this point, and I don't expect the market to fall much more in the immediate future as I am of the opinion that we're a bit extended to the downside. T
TVC:VIX
by MichaelEugen1
Volmagddeon 2.0 and Volatility Road MapI think, finally, after four years of institution distribution and retail gambling, we are at the conclusion of the 90 year bull market since the end of the Great Depression. Today, the volatility index breeched the support line since beginning of this near-term bear trend which started in Nov 2021. After at least a decade of manipulating capitalistic markets and converting them from fairly sound investment instruments to the largest gambling casino on Earth, the devil work of the central banks has finally caught up with them. There is nowhere left to hide today except the USD and eventually high yielding conservative bonds. Bond markets, metals, commodities, housing, crypto, stocks, all are heading to the abyss. One can join value investors or bears, like myself, but I'm fairly sure most of us have committed financial suicide, been burned at the stake by society or, at the least, beaten to a pulp over these years of trying to show the truth. That's why mostly I just tell folks to get out completely and be happy with a dragon's hoard of cash. Enough ranting. Volatility is the Phoenix of the market, fire breathing Goddess of the truth. I think volmageddon 2.0 has arrived and we are in for a hell of a decade. Depression is in the cards. Hopefully we don't break out into WW3 but it's certainly possible. Hang on because after it's all over, we should enter the best phase of humanity yet... once all the lies & corruption have been cleansed. GL to all!
TVC:VIXLong
by supere
1
VIX Mid Term AnalyisVIX is an index representing the market's expectations for volatility and fear. When VIX goes up, the volatility and fear are going up too, and as a result the markets usually goes down. As you can see, the VIX broke last week a trend that continued for 250+ days, and currently it's retesting the line. The RSI indicator is positive, not low but not too high, and no negative divergances. The MACD indicator also shows strengh, while the blue line is above the orange line. The SSL indicator is the same, completely positive. 30 is a strong support and I think that it'll hold it. We are going for a triple retest - for the trendline, the Fib .618, and the 30 support. My targets are 35,38,45,48. By this analysis, we can assume that the markets will have a high volatility in the coming weeks/months, and it might cause a continuation of the bear market in stocks and cryptos.
TVC:VIXLong
by itamarsab
VIX Magic Bowls in ActionAs you can see from the images below, all of the bowls are the same size with similar action from the support lines. This time out the VIX has broken out of the fallen wedge and looks to have confirmed it by touching down. These have been quite accurate so far and I believe that we'll reach 34 by next friday. Sounds quite silly, but the bowls are all of the same size and have performed quite well over the last 5 of them and I'm in a long position to take advantage of them again.
CBOE:VIXLong
by SkyTrees