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VARAUSD trade ideas

MATICUSD vs VARAUSD - Correlation ReviewAs of today VARA is very close to being perfectly correlated with MATIC finally. It took a lot of bouncing around within the range but after Polygon posted losses and VARA's posted gains it is very close to exactly correlated. This IS bullish by the way for both assets because both assets share one common theme and that is that those very large order blocks have moved up, for VARA to approximately $.018 from $.0158 so a massive gain in support. Not only that but the order wall that was at $0.02 has dissolved. Short term these things don't mean much but long term as whales continue to accumulate coin volatility will be the name of the game. There will be a lot of movement so the only thing I can tell you is trade the range, don't do anything else. Shorting at the bottom of a range is just a bad idea, unless you are just desparate to get out and need the money for food, I would say go long at the bottom, short TP1 at least at one of the resistance areas. If you need help finding resistance lines, please download Bookmap or a similar order flow application, it is the only way you can see order walls. And, while price action doesn't always bounce off of order walls, (sometimes they collapse) most of the time they are of some use. Now, a TP1 is not a massive percentage of your coin, that is an insurance short, insurance because you want to have some of your coins liquidated in case the price pulls back, because as you are aware most of the time there is some pull back, no always but most of the time, that is until it doesn't which is why I said TP1 is not a large share of the coin. You hang on to TP2, 3, 4, 5 , 6, however many TP orders you want just in case the price moons. How many times have you sold a coin only for it to go way up and you FOMO in? Yah, exactly. So, insurance my friends, always use insurance which in this case is your TP levels. Look at it this way, if you TP1, and the price goes up you still have 80-90% of your coin. Cut your losses on that one, but look for TP2. If it still goes up you still have a large amount of coin. I hope this helps. I am not a financial advisor.
COINBASE:VARAUSDLong
by fritbjorn
1
VARAUSD Bullish Squeeze Pattern BreakoutAs you can see I have the 15 minute on, simply because when I used to day trade this pattern was fairly reliable. Obviously the shorter the squeeze pattern is the less likely it will break out, because longer squeezes build up more market tension. Now, as a day trader staring at a 5, 10, or 15 minute chart this one I am looking at on VARA is no doubt a buy signal and just wait for it to pop. Just remember, 20% of the time it will go down instead, so obviously set your stop losses. Now I'm not day trading anymore but most of the time if I see one I will go long. This is because from my experience most of the time these breakout to the upside, it will go up especially if we are at the very bottom of a range up against a huge order wall.
COINBASE:VARAUSDLong
by fritbjorn
VARAUSD - Bullish Outlook This chart is not pretty and to the untrained eye looks scary. The thing to remember is that the Channel, even after BTC dumped quite a lot, is still not broken. Actually, not even BTC's channel is broken but more about that later. These knee jerk reactions are all thanks to our friends at the Federal Reserve bank who like to pretend that the US Dollar is more valuable than it really is. While there is a lot of value left in the dollar it will diminish a little at least in the coming months (See my post earlier today regarding DXYUSD). Why am I still bullish? Simply put we are near the bottom of a range and a lot of liquidity is available here, a very suspiciously large amount. What I know about order walls is they are meant to be filled. Even those large exchange walls are meant to be filled eventually since that is how exchange's buy coins that they lend out for leverage to enterprise members. While they do receive a lot of free tokens from projects the exchanges have to buy coins for a lot of their reward programs which makes the sell of these coins a wash i.e. break even since they take them out of the market, give them away and then they are sold. I can tell you right now that there are no short traders placing bets at this price point and it wouldn't take very many to crash this market some. The reason why there are not short traders taking this trade is simply put that very order wall I just mentioned above. It is suspiciously large and wide and it speaks to future plans of this coin to take off and may even break all time highs at some point. At this time I remain long and patiently await the next move to the upside.
COINBASE:VARAUSDLong
by fritbjorn
16
VARAUSD - Bullish ReversalVARA is currently still quite behind in correlation so I believe a lot of catch up is going to occur within the next 24 hours. The weekly 80/20 candlestick that I've been eyeballing and expecting to turn green has flashed green multiple times as the red indecision hammer begins to signal a bullish Thor's hammer in which case would signal not only a bullish reversl but a substantial movement upward of the order wall below. This would mean, if backed by orderflow data within BookMap's heatmap that a drop below the current floor of this channel becomes very unlikely. Anytime price action taps a large order wall at the bottom of a channel something to watch for is absorption and breakage of the order wall. Some assets that tend to be bearish over a long period of time such as in the case of VARA whales who already own a massive bank of coin will buy the coin at discount prices creating a floor. This is not coordinated although in watching the market in these circumstances it feels as though the market is an Artificial Intelligence as similar minds think alike creating a group who is bullish at the bottom while also giving liquidity to the fearful or less experienced traders who focus way too much on assumptions, such as the assumption that unlocked coins would crash a coin further, even though there is no evidence of this and in fact the dump, if there was one, is actually over and happened upon initial listing of this coin on Coinbase. This is a similar story I have seen such as when I first bought SHIB when it was listed on Coinbase. Most coins that are listed now will crash because investors no longer see listings as bullish so don't believe for one second listing this coin on any number of platforms will be bullish, it is not necisarily true. Trade the range until the range breaks... When the range breaks, trade the new range... Fud at the bottom is bullish... Fud at the top is bearish... This asset is bullish... No news is good news for a new asset... Unlocked funds will in large be staked... This range is a whale accumulation range... I am not a financial advisor, trade safely my friends...
COINBASE:VARAUSDLong
by fritbjorn
VARAUSD - Remains Bullish - Range BoundThis hammer candle that has been in the process of forming over the past week should turn green. VARA is way behind it's correlated assets and from my experience, statistically speaking, assets catch up with one another in some way shape or form. The timing is never perfect thanks to the very low market cap VARA has but we are still somewhere around 20% behind the market correlation average in some cases and as low as 10% when compared to direct correlates. Trade the range until the range breaks... When the range breaks, trade the new range... Fud at the bottom is bullish... Fud at the top is bearish... This asset is bullish... No news is good news for a new assett... Unlocked funds will in large be staked... This range is a whale accumulation range...
COINBASE:VARAUSDLong
by fritbjorn
1
VARAUSD - A Glance at The MonthlyAnother Troll So Another Update... Looking at the Monthly, this asset remains VERY bullish and has obviously bottomed out. These are the order blocks that currently entrap price action within this range that we are trading. I ignore all FUD and execute my trade strategy till death... Trade the range until the range breaks... If the range breaks, trade the new range... If the range is unbroken, set targets accordingly... Unless my stop loss has been hit, never short near the bottom... Never long near the top unless my stop loss is hit on a short. When there is FUD near the bottom, invest more into that asset. FUD near the bottom is a buy signal, oddly. FUD near the top is a short signal, very odd. People are more likely to sell a top with FUD than they are to short the bottom (GREED RULES THE MARKET) Outside of this strategy, for me there is nothing else to discuss. The range is not broken so the trade is active.
COINBASE:VARAUSDLong
by fritbjorn
VARAUSD - Hunting for Order Blocks (Order Walls)I've circled (or boxed in rather) the chart patterns which along with order flow data confirm the presence of large order walls. Yes, it is true that I could rely only on order flow data from BookMap to tell me where these are at because the heatmap clearly shows them. But BookMap takes a long time to download data and you have to let it run for a long time before it will catch up with the market so what if I want to draw my strategy right now? Statistics my friends. Study and compare enough and you will be able to pinpoint order walls with good enough accuracy. I know, a lot of traders draw lines all over the place but those lines do not mean anything today if they are way up there or way down below. Price movement could go up or down really fast absorbing those regions with ease, thus I like to stick with the range that the asset is currently in. To me the only thing that matters about what is happening with this asset is what has happened within this range. I trade the range until the range breaks, if the range holds then we trade, if it breaks, we get a new range, higher, lower, whatever time frame, weekly, daily. It is all the same strategy to me. Sentiment doesn't matter and it won't matter in the long run. Look at MAKER, that asset is still trading for $1500 roughly. Why? Is it worth that or is it being propped up? I mean who knows, sentiment can mean something but all I am saying is MAKER isn't even called MAKER anymore, its some weird SKY coin with some end game project the creator has lost his mind. VARA is a young coin with promise and a fresh new approach to programming D Apps. Is it popular today? Will it be listed on other exhanges or is that in the works? See sentiment is BS because we don't have all of the answers and we don't have control but what we do have is a range to trade. So, with that being said, I don't care about unlocks and I don't want to hear another word about it.
COINBASE:VARAUSDEducation
by fritbjorn
VARAUSD - Lets Talk About the Elusive 80/20 CandleI love the 80/20 candle... I have a version of the fib retracement tool on my chart. In this case I am measuring the weekly candle VARA is in right now from top to bottom. As you can see the wick of the candle is almost 80% of the entire candle and the stick is almost 20% of the candle. This bullish signal doesn't have to be perfect but when I am hunting for wicks on the weekly chart, this my friends is the candle I want the most and the longer that wick is the prettier the reversal can be. I am not a financial advisor. Stay save my friends.
COINBASE:VARAUSDLong
by fritbjorn
VARAUSD - Price PredictionNew rule. Every time a troll says something to me I will post an update reiterating my strategy. As I have been saying for the past few months VARA like most assets is rangebound. Alt season, if there is such of a thing hasn't even entered its beginning stages with Bitcoin still dominating market trades. I may have also mentioned this accumulation zone which VARA is still sitting comfortably inside of is in fact also the range VARA is in. Price action will bounce around within this range rejecting off of some levels and breaking through others, ultimately breaking out above the $0.04 order block. This is because that order block consists mostly of whale traders who have absolutely no interest in allowing the price to go up until they are through accumulating. Traders who recognize these patterns can take advantage of the moment. It is true that the price could spike down further, and this would simply feed bargain traders who seek to buy in as close to a penny as possible. If you want to try and time the market more power to you but my approach is the same. Trade the range, average in, and most importantly don't long the top of the range and unless my stop loss is hit don't short the bottom of the range. I am surprised to see how many short contracts that opened up yesterday. I blamed this on year-end loss accumulation for tax purposes. I know a lot of people think I am insane disregarding all FUD regarding unlocks and emissions. My opinion on this is only about 30% of the token supply is locked right now and I believe much of that will become staked holdings. Staking numbers for the VARA network are quite low right now which I think will be resolved once the unlocks occur. Fearful traders believe that every investor or developer who receives their coins is just going to sell at this bottom price. This never happens and instead the opposite often happens. So don't feed into the FUD too deeply, it isn't that serious. VARA is a long-term investment in my opinion and similar to MATIC and any other layer one stakeable coin the rate of return is quite a bit more important than a small market pull back. Regardless, at this point we may have a few months at least before price action is able to absorb the upper order wall but don't forget once it is absorbed it will be quickly flipped to support. Yes, I know it hasn't happened yet but this is how the game is played, trade the range until the range breaks, if the range hasn't broken there is nothing to cry about. We are long at the bottom and short at the top but just be warned that the top of this range is a very low price tag. If you want 30% profit, go ahead but that is not going to be life changing money is it. I am not a financial advisor. Stay safe my friends.
COINBASE:VARAUSDLong
by fritbjorn
3
MATICUSD vs VARAUSD Correlation MapVARA dumped for literally no reason other than traders are taking losses and FUD. The upcoming correction estimate puts target price of rebound at roughly $0.024 right now, this could increase substantially if MATIC pumps, which honestly may happen overnight considering traders that took losses on VARA are not permitted to reinvest in VARA thus they will no doubt choose correlated assets and there are just so many to choose from with POLYGON being somewhere at the top of the list. I am not a financial advisor. Trade the range. Ignore the FUD. Stay safe my friends.
COINBASE:VARAUSDLong
by fritbjorn
2
VARAUSD Remains Bullish After BTC PullbackPOLYGON is on the left chart. VARA is on the right chart. These assets remain tightly correlated with VARA price movements still very exaggerated. VARA has pulled back with BTC and impacted the large order wall exemplified by the green box on my chart. I realize that the price pulled back below $0.02 but this is of no consequence, price action is still within the range albeit at the bottom of the range; the question is what do you do when price action reaches the bottom of the range? Do you buy out of greed or sell out of fear. That is not up to me but being the rational man that I am I am not going to dump the market with my massive accumulation when I can easily buy more coin and lower my cost average. Once I am aware of a range I trade the range. This is the bottom of the range and here I watch for wicks. If there is a wick, good, if there isn't then all is well. Is there a possibility that the price may fall even further? Yes, always a possibility but the entire market would have to go with it. There is no rational reason for VARA to take a nosedive by itself. It is no longer in the initial pump zone following the Coinbase listing and is instead now correlated with other similar assets, SHIP, SPELL, POLKADOT, MATIC to name a few.
COINBASE:VARAUSDLong
by fritbjorn
17
VARAUSD - Order FlowVARA and other correlated assets are rangebound. These two order walls which encapsulate the majority of the altcoin price action is all that matters since assets are range bound until either of these order walls dissolve. Some things to note: The upper order wall is being tested more often than the lower order wall. This is bullish however the severity of the pull back off of resistance is of some concern when a large wick does not form quickly. I would like to see this weekly candle to deliver at least an 80/20 green candle or larger, this would give us either a flipped thors hammer or a long indecision candle. I think that a bullish engulfing candle could result but we still have a few days left and much relies upon the DXY / BTC relationship. BTC looks very toppish at this time however instead of a huge pullback the market anticipates a long consolidation above the trendline crossing just above the all time high. The fake news is already trashing the economy and trying their best to set up a bearish scenario for the Trum administration which I believe is why our indicators are flagging exaggerated chart patterns as market manipulation. While traders themselves may not be manipulating the market the fake news can move markets and do quite often I think.
COINBASE:VARAUSDLong
by fritbjorn