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VARAUSD trade ideas

VARAUSD - Remains Bullish - Range BoundThis hammer candle that has been in the process of forming over the past week should turn green. VARA is way behind it's correlated assets and from my experience, statistically speaking, assets catch up with one another in some way shape or form. The timing is never perfect thanks to the very low market cap VARA has but we are still somewhere around 20% behind the market correlation average in some cases and as low as 10% when compared to direct correlates. Trade the range until the range breaks... When the range breaks, trade the new range... Fud at the bottom is bullish... Fud at the top is bearish... This asset is bullish... No news is good news for a new assett... Unlocked funds will in large be staked... This range is a whale accumulation range...
COINBASE:VARAUSDLong
by fritbjorn
1
VARAUSD - A Glance at The MonthlyAnother Troll So Another Update... Looking at the Monthly, this asset remains VERY bullish and has obviously bottomed out. These are the order blocks that currently entrap price action within this range that we are trading. I ignore all FUD and execute my trade strategy till death... Trade the range until the range breaks... If the range breaks, trade the new range... If the range is unbroken, set targets accordingly... Unless my stop loss has been hit, never short near the bottom... Never long near the top unless my stop loss is hit on a short. When there is FUD near the bottom, invest more into that asset. FUD near the bottom is a buy signal, oddly. FUD near the top is a short signal, very odd. People are more likely to sell a top with FUD than they are to short the bottom (GREED RULES THE MARKET) Outside of this strategy, for me there is nothing else to discuss. The range is not broken so the trade is active.
COINBASE:VARAUSDLong
by fritbjorn
VARAUSD - Hunting for Order Blocks (Order Walls)I've circled (or boxed in rather) the chart patterns which along with order flow data confirm the presence of large order walls. Yes, it is true that I could rely only on order flow data from BookMap to tell me where these are at because the heatmap clearly shows them. But BookMap takes a long time to download data and you have to let it run for a long time before it will catch up with the market so what if I want to draw my strategy right now? Statistics my friends. Study and compare enough and you will be able to pinpoint order walls with good enough accuracy. I know, a lot of traders draw lines all over the place but those lines do not mean anything today if they are way up there or way down below. Price movement could go up or down really fast absorbing those regions with ease, thus I like to stick with the range that the asset is currently in. To me the only thing that matters about what is happening with this asset is what has happened within this range. I trade the range until the range breaks, if the range holds then we trade, if it breaks, we get a new range, higher, lower, whatever time frame, weekly, daily. It is all the same strategy to me. Sentiment doesn't matter and it won't matter in the long run. Look at MAKER, that asset is still trading for $1500 roughly. Why? Is it worth that or is it being propped up? I mean who knows, sentiment can mean something but all I am saying is MAKER isn't even called MAKER anymore, its some weird SKY coin with some end game project the creator has lost his mind. VARA is a young coin with promise and a fresh new approach to programming D Apps. Is it popular today? Will it be listed on other exhanges or is that in the works? See sentiment is BS because we don't have all of the answers and we don't have control but what we do have is a range to trade. So, with that being said, I don't care about unlocks and I don't want to hear another word about it.
COINBASE:VARAUSDEducation
by fritbjorn
VARAUSD - Lets Talk About the Elusive 80/20 CandleI love the 80/20 candle... I have a version of the fib retracement tool on my chart. In this case I am measuring the weekly candle VARA is in right now from top to bottom. As you can see the wick of the candle is almost 80% of the entire candle and the stick is almost 20% of the candle. This bullish signal doesn't have to be perfect but when I am hunting for wicks on the weekly chart, this my friends is the candle I want the most and the longer that wick is the prettier the reversal can be. I am not a financial advisor. Stay save my friends.
COINBASE:VARAUSDLong
by fritbjorn
VARAUSD - Price PredictionNew rule. Every time a troll says something to me I will post an update reiterating my strategy. As I have been saying for the past few months VARA like most assets is rangebound. Alt season, if there is such of a thing hasn't even entered its beginning stages with Bitcoin still dominating market trades. I may have also mentioned this accumulation zone which VARA is still sitting comfortably inside of is in fact also the range VARA is in. Price action will bounce around within this range rejecting off of some levels and breaking through others, ultimately breaking out above the $0.04 order block. This is because that order block consists mostly of whale traders who have absolutely no interest in allowing the price to go up until they are through accumulating. Traders who recognize these patterns can take advantage of the moment. It is true that the price could spike down further, and this would simply feed bargain traders who seek to buy in as close to a penny as possible. If you want to try and time the market more power to you but my approach is the same. Trade the range, average in, and most importantly don't long the top of the range and unless my stop loss is hit don't short the bottom of the range. I am surprised to see how many short contracts that opened up yesterday. I blamed this on year-end loss accumulation for tax purposes. I know a lot of people think I am insane disregarding all FUD regarding unlocks and emissions. My opinion on this is only about 30% of the token supply is locked right now and I believe much of that will become staked holdings. Staking numbers for the VARA network are quite low right now which I think will be resolved once the unlocks occur. Fearful traders believe that every investor or developer who receives their coins is just going to sell at this bottom price. This never happens and instead the opposite often happens. So don't feed into the FUD too deeply, it isn't that serious. VARA is a long-term investment in my opinion and similar to MATIC and any other layer one stakeable coin the rate of return is quite a bit more important than a small market pull back. Regardless, at this point we may have a few months at least before price action is able to absorb the upper order wall but don't forget once it is absorbed it will be quickly flipped to support. Yes, I know it hasn't happened yet but this is how the game is played, trade the range until the range breaks, if the range hasn't broken there is nothing to cry about. We are long at the bottom and short at the top but just be warned that the top of this range is a very low price tag. If you want 30% profit, go ahead but that is not going to be life changing money is it. I am not a financial advisor. Stay safe my friends.
COINBASE:VARAUSDLong
by fritbjorn
3
MATICUSD vs VARAUSD Correlation MapVARA dumped for literally no reason other than traders are taking losses and FUD. The upcoming correction estimate puts target price of rebound at roughly $0.024 right now, this could increase substantially if MATIC pumps, which honestly may happen overnight considering traders that took losses on VARA are not permitted to reinvest in VARA thus they will no doubt choose correlated assets and there are just so many to choose from with POLYGON being somewhere at the top of the list. I am not a financial advisor. Trade the range. Ignore the FUD. Stay safe my friends.
COINBASE:VARAUSDLong
by fritbjorn
2
VARAUSD Remains Bullish After BTC PullbackPOLYGON is on the left chart. VARA is on the right chart. These assets remain tightly correlated with VARA price movements still very exaggerated. VARA has pulled back with BTC and impacted the large order wall exemplified by the green box on my chart. I realize that the price pulled back below $0.02 but this is of no consequence, price action is still within the range albeit at the bottom of the range; the question is what do you do when price action reaches the bottom of the range? Do you buy out of greed or sell out of fear. That is not up to me but being the rational man that I am I am not going to dump the market with my massive accumulation when I can easily buy more coin and lower my cost average. Once I am aware of a range I trade the range. This is the bottom of the range and here I watch for wicks. If there is a wick, good, if there isn't then all is well. Is there a possibility that the price may fall even further? Yes, always a possibility but the entire market would have to go with it. There is no rational reason for VARA to take a nosedive by itself. It is no longer in the initial pump zone following the Coinbase listing and is instead now correlated with other similar assets, SHIP, SPELL, POLKADOT, MATIC to name a few.
COINBASE:VARAUSDLong
by fritbjorn
17
VARAUSD - Order FlowVARA and other correlated assets are rangebound. These two order walls which encapsulate the majority of the altcoin price action is all that matters since assets are range bound until either of these order walls dissolve. Some things to note: The upper order wall is being tested more often than the lower order wall. This is bullish however the severity of the pull back off of resistance is of some concern when a large wick does not form quickly. I would like to see this weekly candle to deliver at least an 80/20 green candle or larger, this would give us either a flipped thors hammer or a long indecision candle. I think that a bullish engulfing candle could result but we still have a few days left and much relies upon the DXY / BTC relationship. BTC looks very toppish at this time however instead of a huge pullback the market anticipates a long consolidation above the trendline crossing just above the all time high. The fake news is already trashing the economy and trying their best to set up a bearish scenario for the Trum administration which I believe is why our indicators are flagging exaggerated chart patterns as market manipulation. While traders themselves may not be manipulating the market the fake news can move markets and do quite often I think.
COINBASE:VARAUSDLong
by fritbjorn
VARAUSD - Updated Technical AnalysisAs anticipated, price action broke through the middle band of the bollinger bands on the weekly and sadly did not produce a wick. Price action rejected off of the lower band placing us in a range bound movement again. While overall movement is sideways, with two red candles preceding this a green candle is stastically more likely and overnight on Sunday (tonight) will hopefully yield some movement out of USDX to the downside as I anticipate that this most recent market volatility is due to the over-active Federal Reserve board trying to shake things up prior to Trump taking office. It is no secret that the Board and Donald Trump do not see eye to eye and do not like each other. The thing is, these markets are hitting record volumes monthly. The entire market has pulled back which is a normal knee jerk reaction to the Fed loosening up on printing. I am in the banking sector professionally and know that the high rates have caused banks to fail and did very little to help slow inflation anyway. I do not foresee the rapid lowering of interest rates to do very much damage over the long run considering oil prices can be weaponized by the whitehouse to target high inflation, simply by making fuel dirt cheap inflation will go away. I would say, lets keep watching these order walls that are just below and above current price action within whatever order flow program you choose and lets see if that lower order wall moves up. I have a gut feeling that it is going to move up and when it does the price will level up.
COINBASE:VARAUSDLong
by fritbjorn
VARAUSD /USDX Negative Correlation - VARA Still RangeboundFear continues to trap price action within this sideways accumulation range. Sunday evening after the markets reopen USDX will prove either a very bearish pullback when traders sober up from the Fed announcement. Over the past few months, the Federal reserve has lowered rates a few times, each time causing the US dollar to rally against other currencies and pressing risk assets in the crypto market downward. With Bitcoin being one of the only ones to be able to break free from this negative correlation. This pattern is going to cease very soon. This I believe is because the Federal reserve is abusing its power in an attempt to increase inflation before President Trump takes office in January. It isn't going to work just as increasing the rates didn't have much of an effect on the economy. Investors are always fearful whenever the Federal reserve is as active as they are now, especially with the transition of power in the United States occurring next month.
COINBASE:VARAUSDLong
by fritbjorn
2
VARAUSD Large Movement Incoming - PredictionSee my chart I put comments therein. That WICK that I needed to see is forming on the weekly. I did go ahead and publish a low time frame for the trolls in here who cannot seem to get it through their thick skulls that I am not a day trader. What am I going to do with the pennies you are making. This little channel is an accumulation zone and I am buying here, there is nothing to sell at this level. People who are selling here are absolutely nuts in my opinion. Sell low, buy high. Yah no thanks.
COINBASE:VARAUSDLong
by fritbjorn
16
VARAUSD Weekly AnalysisThe wich off of the center B Band is developing nicely with a few days left in the weekly candle. I anticipated this pull back due to resistance from trapped longs and upper B Band psychological level. Next weeks candle will likely reverse and develop into a massive green candle, this time absorbing the remaining trapped longs at the $0.04 level. The center B Band is a target long position with next target accumulation zone around $0.045 and $0.11 depending upon BTC and USDX movements.
COINBASE:VARAUSDLong
by fritbjorn
12
VARAUSD - Bullish Trend - WeeklyAs you can clearly see the B Bands have tightened. Price action has already hit the upper band resistance as it is supposed to and support of the center band was previously confirmed. Price action is headed toward the center B Bands where it will likely confirm support again and break out. This sums up the accumulation phase on the weekly chart. Sorry to those of you who are staring at the 4 hour, that cannot be done on assets like this. We are only concerned with the big picture which is that this Asset pumped all the way up to the top of the B Bands and retreated. This is unavoidable even for Bitcoin. Understandably VARA is going to pull back more and more often, this is why swing trading the asset is such a joy. All I can tell you is small moves on the lower time frames are technical pointers but are in no way the direction of this coin. I mentioned previously that this weeks candle would likely be red and when I said that it did not mean the price is going up, it means exactly what it says, a downward move.
COINBASE:VARAUSDLong
by fritbjorn
6
VARA - Bullish Trend Reversal - Further AnalysisTrapped longs are regions where traders called a false bottom and went all in while the market continued to sell. The current actual bottom is indicated and called due to a trend reversal, heavy increase in buying pressure volume, and a clear change in market structure. There are currently trapped shorts in this region where stop loss and fear traders orders were filled and gobbled up by consumer, institution, and whale traders. This asset has a very low market cap, if and when the trapped longs are cured and price action breaks through this region of the chart greed will overtake breakout traders who will go all in. This hasn't occurred yet due to several massive pullbacks from the $0.04 mark. This asset has several psychological price points of approximately every half cent currently hitting .03 and .035 psychological resistance. Contracts are opening and closing in short periods of time partially due to lack of faith as well as automated trade activity. It will be interesting to see what happens overnight Sunday into Monday morning.
COINBASE:VARAUSDLong
by fritbjorn
VARA - Further AnalysisI've gotten quite a few messages from people wanting to know why I am bullish on VARA right now. Look at my chart, this is why. This asset has been trying to break out for months and it actually isn't falling it is in a bullish squeeze. This regression trend in the chart below is the top and bottom of the range (it is an approximation). This is also called an accumulation zone. If someone were to have averaged in throughout this regression trend the center line shows the average price for all coin bought.
COINBASE:VARAUSDLong
by fritbjorn
13