KOG - FTSE Quick post from us on FTSE. We're looking at these higher levels for a RIP potential, if we can get it we're looking to take this down into our active targets.
We'll update as we go along.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
UK100 trade ideas
UK100 index is showing trend reversal.Chart is showing bearish divergence.
Head & shoulder pattern is visible at recent HH which is also a bearish pattern.
So we can take entry at the break of neckline as that point will confirm trend reversal.
FTSE 100 Targets reminder. As it starts it's big moveAs described before
one of the worst index's to have been exposed to for decades
WHILST during rampant #UK inflation
The FTSE did nothing to help you out.
Yet here we are about to see it get sent to 5 figures.
FTSE 100 pushes to record highs The FTSE 100 has reached a new record high after pushing through the bearish sentiment that has taken over global equities in the past few weeks. The index, which is made up of the biggest 100 companies in the UK, closed above the previous high of 8,045 on Monday following a 1.6% rise on the day. The rally gathered strength on Friday when the index saw some whipsaw momentum, dropping 1.45% during the Asian session before bouncing 2.4% and ending the day 0.8% higher.
Concerns about geopolitical tensions have eased slightly over the past few days which has allowed global equities to halt the recent declines and attempt to regain the bullish momentum. But the FTSE 100 has been outshining its major peers, having found its footing earlier than the rest. A weaker pound has been helping, with the latest retail sales data offering more evidence of the weakening state of the UK economy, which increases the pressure on the Bank of England to start seriously considering cutting rates. The central bank is facing a tough balancing act of aiding growth whilst ensuring inflationary pressures do not spike up once again. With UK inflation now below the US for the first time in two years, markets are expecting the BoE to cut rates before the Federal Reserve, weighing on GBP/USD and keeping the FTSE 100 supported.
With regards to its constituents, Primark owner Associated British Foods (ABF) has been leading the gains this morning as it posted strong half-year results. Improving margins for its retail sector has boosted its share price to a new five-and-a-half-year high. Online supermarket Ocado is also on the list of biggest movers boosted in part by being named the fastest-growing firm in the Kantar supermarket data, but also pressured by investors to consider moving its listing to the US.
Technically, the bias remains upward in the medium term, with the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) still below 70. That said, the RSI is currently hovering around the level where pullbacks have started in the past, suggesting further pullbacks could still be on the cards. The weekly moving averages continue to be stacked in descending order, supporting continued bullish momentum, backed by the fact that the price has managed to push and hold above its long-term resistance of around 7,760.
UK100-FTSE-LongHello Traders
I'm looking at the ftse since the start of the week but wasn't able to catch a good setup, now it seem like one.
If the risk environment stays positive we can see more upside but this is a decent short term trade as well TP1 at asian session high
Elliott Wave Calling for FTSE to Extend HigherShort Term Elliott Wave view on FTSE suggests that rally from 8.18.2023 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse. Up from 8.18.2023 low, wave 1 ended at 7745.82 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 7279.86. Up from there, wave ((i)) ended at 7764.37 and wave ((ii)) pullback ended at 7404.08. The Index then extended higher in wave ((iii)) towards 8015.63 as the 1 hour chart below shows. Wave ((iv)) pullback ended at 7882.68 and wave ((v)) ended at 8044.98. This completed wave 3 in higher degree.
Pullback in wave 4 took the form of Elliott Wave zigzag structure. Down from wave 3, wave ((a)) ended at 7952.12 and wave ((b)) rally ended at 8009.52. Final leg wave ((c)) lower ended at 7791.84 which completed wave 4. The Index has resumed higher again in wave 5. Up from wave 4, wave (i) ended at 7898.77 and wave (ii) ended at 7809.68. Wave (iii) higher ended at 8076.52 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 8021.67. Expect the Index to extend higher in wave (v) of ((i)). It then should pullback in wave ((ii)) to correct cycle from 4.16.2024 low before it resumes higher. Near term, as far as pivot at 7791.84 low stays intact, expect dips to find buyers in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
Breakout Alert: FTSE 100 Hits Record HighWith the FTSE 100 closing at a record high on Monday, let’s take a closer look at the breakout and the catalysts behind it.
Catalysts Behind the Breakout
The FTSE 100's breakout can be attributed to several key catalysts:
Expectations of UK Interest Rate Cuts: Anticipation of interest rate cuts from the Bank of England has weakened the pound, boosting the FTSE’s exporters. Many companies in the index generate a significant portion of their revenue in foreign currencies, so a weaker pound increases their earnings when converted back into sterling.
Shift from Tech Stocks to Commodities: Investors have been moving away from high-flying technology stocks and into commodities, benefiting many large-cap stocks within the FTSE 100.
Diverging Interest Rate Expectations: The discrepancy in interest rate expectations between the US and the UK has played a role. While the US Federal Reserve is expected to maintain relatively higher interest rates, the Bank of England is anticipated to implement rate cuts. This difference in monetary policy outlooks has driven GBP/USD lower, further boosting the FTSE 100's performance.
Resilience in Energy and Financial Sectors: Rising oil prices have buoyed energy companies, while signs of economic resilience in the UK have positively impacted financial institutions. Both sectors have seen strong performance, contributing significantly to the overall gains of the FTSE 100.
FTSE 100 Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
A Closer Look
Zooming into the FTSE’s daily candle chart and adding volume and Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicators, we gain a deeper understanding of the price action behind the breakout…
A failed breakout attempt earlier this month was followed by a volatile retracement, during which the index retested a key level of broken resistance – using it as support and forming a large bullish hammer candle backed by high volume. The hammer candle revealed the strength of buying pressure in the market and was followed by a swift breakout move on Monday.
Momentum traders should always be wary of false breakouts, but so far, the FTSE’s breakout looks sustainable:
RSI Signals Strength: The RSI is sloping upwards and in the high 60s – indicating strong momentum without being excessive.
Preceding Consolidation: Prior to the breakout, the FTSE had spent more than three weeks consolidating sideways in a choppy range. This preceding consolidation increases the likelihood of the breakout holding.
FTSE 100 Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 84.01% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
UK100 - Short Signal UK100 H4
Sat on a key level of resistance, this 8000 price offer a whole/psychological number, H4 resistance and H4 demand, totalling our 3 confluences to signal.
I’d love to see some price action confirmation, but often with these stock indices, it’s not worth waiting for.
UK100 on the ropes despite good resultsWe have had a week full of negative news that has forced the FTSE100 index (Ticker AT: UK100) to cut its price from Monday to the Asian open by -3.70% and now at the European open it has rebounded by 1.36%. A possible military escalation between Iran and Israel has put the spotlight on the alert warnings in all markets and the Asian market experienced with a downbeat sentiment a possible affection for the technology and commodity market, on which the London index is so dependent. Gold prices fell by 3% in Asia-Pacific trading today and it is clear that commodities are having, never better said, "their golden moment" with so much military drama around the Middle East and Eastern Europe.
The British index has a high bearish sentiment on a technical level among investors after the early morning. Today the UK government will issue retail sales and fuel sales releases with Bank of England (BoE) Governor Dave Ramsden's speech at midday. Currently the Bank Rate is at 5.25% and the inflation rate is at 3.2% aiming for the 2% target. It is very likely that the central bank will keep its rate as it is given that the inflation cut target seems to be working well and the change of governor will not take place until July 1st, so a continuation of policy is likely.
The corporate data facilitated the upward adjustment during yesterday's session and it is possible that it will try to recover that zone again today and next week looking for the most traded zone of the bell which is at 7,953.35 points, currently the price is at 7,831.70 points so there is still a range to recover the middle zone of last week. Its RSI is oversold at 45.20% so it would not be unusual to see another bullish attempt as we say today and during the next week.
Ion Jauregui - AT Analyst
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2:1 FTSE Short1. Double top all time resistance high
2. Daily Break of Structure (BOS)
3. H4 50 & 100 EMA Crossover potential (i.e. turning down)
4. Price action retest of EMAs crossover
UK100 Share Index Rises as UK Inflation SlowsUK100 Share Index Rises as UK Inflation Slows
Yesterday, the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the CPI stood at 3.2% in March. According to ForexFactory, analysts expected 3.1%, and a month ago the index was 3.4%.
Grant Fitzner, chief economist at the ONS, said: “Once again, food prices were the main reason for the fall, with prices rising by less than we saw a year ago. Similarly to last month, we saw a partial offset from rising fuel prices.”
Thus, actual inflation in the UK fell to its lowest level in two and a half years. According to Yahoo Finance, this weakening of inflation could influence the Bank of England to start cutting interest rates from the current level of 5.25% in June.
In anticipation of an easing of monetary policy, the values of the UK stock index UK100 increased yesterday. Today it is above the 7,900 level.
Technical analysis of the UK100 chart today shows that:
→ the price forms an ascending channel (shown in blue);
→ the rise in the price of UK100 from the current week’s low forms a rebound from the support block, which is formed by the lower border of this channel and the former resistance 7,800.
At the same time, the bearish arguments remain powerful:
→ pay attention to the sharp rate of decline in A→B;
→ the UK100 price has broken down the intermediate trend line (shown in black).
Will the market be able to resume the rally indicated by the blue channel? Important information about the seriousness of bullish sentiment in the UK stock market can be provided by the behavior of the UK100 price, namely its ability to rise above the median line of the channel and above the level of 50% of the decline (A→B).
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
📈 FTSE 100 Index Double-Top: Corrective Crash To ~6,000➖ Back in May 2018 the UKX produced a peak that led to a major crash a few years later, this was the All-Time High at the time.
➖ The ATH came in May 2018 followed by a long-term lower high January 2020.
➖ The lower high January 2020 signaled the start of the biggest corrective crash since 2008.
We have a similar situation when it comes to price action and chart patterns, as well as many signals to look at pointing toward a major, strong, hard correction.
➖ The UKX All-Time High came in February 2023.
This is marked on the chart with a rounded top pattern.
➖ Just last week, April 2024, the UKX produced a long-term lower high (more than a year long). This lower high can also be read as a double-top and this wouldn't change what the chart is saying; down!
➖ All the action since mid-2021 can be considered a consolidation phase.
➖ When the market crashes, we can say the entire period was a distribution phase.
➖ This week, active session, the UKX went full red and deleted three weeks of growth.
The bearish momentum is really strong and right now the UKX is hanging on support as EMA10.
➖ The RSI peaked in 2006, giving us an 18 years long bearish divergence; actually, it goes further back. The RSI hit an ATH in September 1989, giving us a 35 years long bearish divergence.
👉 The first, main and easy target sits around 7,150.
👉 The second target sits around 6,000.
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.
UK Stock Market Post Inflation Data, Where Next?UK Inflation readings just came in and the UK govt is raving about it. Well needed gratification is in order due to the current dire political situation (we won't talk politics)..
Their promise was to halve inflation and their positive sentiment/rhetoric along with US news yesterday is creating bullish atmosphere within the UK main Stock Market, the FTSE 100.
I mentioned previously about long entries, of which have progressed to the upside significantly:
This relied heavily on a Technical view with other Fundamental aspects in mind. Price Action in Markets must always be used as a means of identifying where traders and investors alike are entering and exiting the Market.
That's because if you are joining them it gives weight to your entries and their potential direction and movement further. This couples well with Market Sentiment which ultimately rules the Financial Markets and leads people to buy and sell.
The current rise is also giving way to technical approaches and sentiment, or Market Mood persists to the upside.
Looking for further entries and exits as stated in this video.
Watch to learn.
A short is about take place, bears are kicking in. @ price 7959.7 it is where I'm targeting to place a short, coz we are going to have a third touch at that highs trendlins & point 7959.7 when changing the candle sticks to ( Bars). You'll see that's where we have more opens buys at the very same zone.
FTSE Forms Bullish Hammer at 50% FibHaving broken through long-term resistance and come within touching distance of the February 2023 highs, the FTSE took a pause for breath last week pulling back from recent highs.
Pullbacks provide excellent opportunities for traders to position themselves within established trends at attractive levels of risk/reward, and the FTSE’s recent pullback has put trend continuation traders on high alert.
FTSE Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
If we take a closer look at the FTSE’s recent price action, we can see that on Friday the market sold off in the morning only to rally back into the closing bell – forming a bullish hammer candle .
This simple price pattern provides a useful signal to trend continuation traders that the market may be ready to resume its uptrend.
The location of Friday’s hammer candle is also significant. The candle formed at the 50% retracement of the breakout move. It also closed back above the volume weighted average price (VWAP) anchored to the breakout lows.
Zoomed View: FTSE Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Risk Management
The FTSE daily rolling futures average true range (ATR) is currently 64 – meaning the index tends to move on average 64 points each day. Swing traders looking to hold their positions overnight should place a stop loss outside of the daily ATR. The stop should also be placed below the hammer candle lows.
On the economic calendar this week, Thursday’s European Central Bank decision on interest rates is likely to generate volatility across European and UK equities.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 84.01% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
UK100 is Ready For SHORT Positionuk100 /USDT is Going to get a good setup for SHORT POSITION
you can get this position with 0.2 LOT
Good Luck & dont forget to set SL & TP
Although UK-100 Index Is Near All-time HighsAlthough UK-100 Index Is Near All-time Highs, UK Economy Slips into Recession
Technically, a national economic recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction, and yesterday's Office for National Statistics data confirmed that this has happened — UK GDP fell in the third and fourth quarters of 2023 by 0.1% and 0.3% respectively.
The Guardian writes that the recession may be deeper than it seems at first glance:
→ Increased government spending (including for the military) masks a deep and persistent decline in production.
→ The economy is shrinking despite population growth;
→ In the fourth quarter of 2023, the deficit widened to £26.3 billion, or 3.9% of GDP, up £5.9 billion from the third quarter.
→ The big problem is the decline in goods exports. Soaring prices for imported raw materials and energy have played a major role in increasing the cost of producing goods in the UK and making it difficult to sell them abroad.
However, the price of the UK-100 index (or FTSE-100) is near all-time highs. This is because the Bank of England may ease monetary policy to avoid worsening the recession. And this will be a positive factor for the development of the top 100 companies whose shares are included in the index — this expectation is included in the current quote.
The UK-100 Index chart shows that:
→ today the price of UK-100 is moving within an upward trend (shown by the blue channel);
→ demand forces are active at the lower border of the channel, quickly absorbing all declines (shown by arrows);
→ the bulls confirmed their dominance upon breaking through the 7,800 level, forming a strong cup-and-handle pattern;
→ the psychological level of 8,000 points prevents the bulls from maintaining the growth rate - when approaching it, the bullish candles become narrower. Buyer confidence is waning. This creates difficulties for the price to realize the prospect of reaching the upper boundary of the channel.
It is possible that the upward trend, rooted in the fall of 2023, will continue with the formation of a correction before attempts to overcome the resistance block of 8,000-8,050. In this scenario, support for the UK-100 price may come from:
→ Fibo level 50% rollback from growth impulse A→B;
→ local support formed by intraday price action around the level of 7.888;
→ median line and/or lower border of the blue channel.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FTSE100 And Price Action/ProbabilityThis chart is a clear display of how markets work in simple terms.
The fact is, your job is to look for repetition. Repetition directly correlates to probability, as it is your bread and butter for understanding what is next,
That is also, simply, the point of price action.
So when something happens so many times.. Do not be surprised if it happens again. And do not bank everything on it just because it is 'probable'.
Risk much be associated to the risk of the market setting and you must be prepared for a failure of any level with further risk plans.
uk100 long going long after the the end of the pullback came to an end the v formation was tested and held
FTSE 100 Trade Plan: Scenarios to ConsiderEarlier this month, we discussed subtle cues indicating the FTSE 100's readiness to break out. Fast forward three weeks, and the index has decisively broken free from its long-term range, surging over 150 points post the US Federal Reserve's reaffirmation of its rate-cut plans.
FTSE 100 Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Where Next for the FTSE?
To gain perspective post-breakout, let's zoom out to the weekly candle chart. Here, we can see that the FTSE just broken through the May 2018 highs – an area that was briefly surpassed in February last year which printed a new all-time high for the index.
FTSE 100 Weekly Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
FTSE 100 Trade Plan: Scenarios to Consider
Scenario 1: Swift Retest of All-Time Highs
If last week's bullish momentum continues, the market may head directly towards the February 2023 all-time highs. This could present short-term buying opportunities but could also lead to overbought conditions, offering potential for swing traders to sell on a retest.
Scenario 2: Sideways Consolidation
Alternatively, if the FTSE consolidates near highs for several sessions, chances of sustaining a breakout increase. Here, swing traders could position within the consolidation pattern.
Scenario 3: Deep Pullback
Should the FTSE quickly retract last week's gains, a break below Friday's lows might prompt a swift retest of the broken trading range's top, likely offering support moving forward.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 84.01% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
