NFP US30Technical analysis.
Gap fills and liquidity grabs.
Trapping Sellers and buyers looking to break above 45k
Not financial advice.
US30 trade ideas
BullishThinking about bullish push here to 1-4hr resistance in this range we're in. Possibility of SL hunting below so beware
New ATH Achieved: Price Targets 45,200 Amid Sustained UptrendTechnical Analysis
The price has reached a new all-time high (ATH) and is now advancing toward the 45,200 level.
Currently, a corrective move toward 44,920 is underway, and a sustained position above this level is expected to propel the price further toward 45,200.
For a bearish scenario to materialize, the price must close a 4-hour candle below 44,750, which would likely open the path to a decline toward 44,400.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 45100
Resistance Levels: 45200, 45500, 45600
Support Levels: 44750, 44400, 44270
Trend Outlook:
Uptrend while above 44750 and 44920
US30 Closing first red day on the NFP dayHello traders and thanks for reading and supporting my idea!
US30 is actually building an interesting template and today it could complete a weekly pump and dump template. But to understand better the logic behind this template, let's analyse day by day what happened this week.
Monday, sets up the opening range of the week, the high low of the week is now in place and overall it was a dumping day as you can see during NY session time.
Tuesday expanded the range to the downside, closing back inside the range at the end of the day. That's our box of the week, money are lying above and below these extremes.
Wednesday nothing really interesting happened, considering that the price stayed inside the range almost all the day, slightly retesting the HOW just before the end of the day, closing the day in breakout, which is very important because now, breakout traders long are in the market and potentially driving this move.
Thursday consolidated almost all the day up high into the HOW, every attempt to break higher failed, eventually trapping the traders long in the wrong direction, stopping them out at the end of the day, closing the market as first red day and with breakout short traders involved.
Today, Friday, I can see the market placing a lower low into the low of day, which potentially reinforce the weakness of this market, and it's currently consolidating/coiling just below the closing price.
Overall, we are inside the previous weekly high low range, so I will be targeting the current LOW if the short scenario is identified.
As always, the template can give a thesis but a setup can drive the move, the following notes will explain better both the scenarios.
Gianni
US30 / TRADING A RANGE BETWEEN 45,100 AND 44,468 / 4HUS30 / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
The Dow Jones is trading between 45,100 (resistance) and 44,468 (support) , Prices are under upward pressure, but remain below the all-time high (ATH) of 45,100.
If prices fail to stabilize above 45,100, a decline is expected toward the lower support at 44,468,If prices break below 44,468, the decline could continue further into a demand zone between 43,960 and 43,719.
If prices break and stabilize above 45,100 (ATH), an increase is expected toward a new historical zone between 45,490 and 45,890.
this is my idea for DowJones tradersOANDA:US30USD Dow Jones price is now on the rise, if the price settles above 44709 it will reach 45078, but if it breaks 44709 and settles below this level it will drop to 44444 especially at the 4-H
change the trendGiven the price behavior within the current support range, an upward trend is expected to form up to the specified resistance levels
DOW JONES: Short term consolidation to lead to 46,100.Dow Jones is on a very healthy bullish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 64.961, MACD = 523.800, ADX = 24.313) as the bullish trend inside the 5 month Channel Up is still intact. In fact it is not just intact but the index is basically on All Time High levels, supported by the 4H MA50. The Channel Up is highly symmetric and technically we believe we are on the same level as September 30th. The index was inside a shorter term Channel Up, which after a 4H MA100 test, it rallied to the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. The bearish divergence on the 4H RSI was as evident then as it is now. The two fractals are virtually identical, hence we project a similar result. Buy and target the 1.5 Fib (TP = 46,100).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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US30 Trend:
The chart shows a bullish channel forming after breaking out from a prior consolidation zone.
The price is currently testing the lower boundary of the channel.
Key Fibonacci Levels:
The price is reacting near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (44,888), which is a critical support zone.
Further downside could test 44,782 (50% Fib).
RSI:
The RSI is showing a bearish divergence (lower highs on RSI vs higher highs on price), indicating potential weakening of bullish momentum.
Support and Resistance:
Support: 44,888 (Fib 61.8%) and channel support.
Resistance: 45,105 (channel top) and 45,030 (Fib 78.6%).
What to Do:
If Bullish:
Look for price to hold above 44,888 and the lower boundary of the bullish channel.
Entry: Buy near support with a target toward 45,030 or higher.
Stop-loss: Below 44,780.
If Bearish:
If the price breaks below 44,888 and the channel, consider a short.
Entry: Sell on a confirmed breakdown with targets toward 44,782 or 44,613.
Stop-loss: Above 44,950.
Neutral Approach:
Wait for a clear breakout or breakdown from the current channel to confirm direction.
Focus on volume and RSI behavior for further confirmation of trend continuation or reversal.
Mastering Risk Management: The Silent Key to Trading SuccessMastering Risk Management: The Silent Key to Trading Success
In the world of trading, risk management is often the unsung hero. While many traders obsess over finding the perfect strategy or predicting the next market move, those who truly succeed understand that managing risk is the cornerstone of long-term profitability. Without it, even the most brilliant trading plan can crumble. With it, you build a resilient foundation that allows you to weather the inevitable storms and capitalize on opportunities.
What is Risk Management?
Risk management isn't just a set of rules; it's a mindset and a discipline. It’s the process of identifying, assessing, and controlling potential losses. This goes beyond simply setting stop-loss orders or adjusting position sizes. It's about adopting a framework that ensures every trading decision is made with a clear understanding of the potential downside. Before entering any trade, ask yourself: "What am I willing to lose?" rather than "How much could I gain?"
Why Risk Management Matters
Imagine driving a car without brakes. No matter how powerful the engine or how skilled the driver, the lack of brakes turns every journey into a potential disaster. In trading, risk management is your braking system. It keeps you in control, preventing small mistakes from turning into catastrophic losses.
Many traders focus on their win rate, but it's the size of your losses that often determines your success. Even a strategy with a 50% win rate can be highly profitable if your average loss is much smaller than your average gain. Conversely, a trader who wins 80% of the time but suffers massive losses on the other 20% will likely fail in the long run.
Practical Steps to Effective Risk Management
Know Your Risk Tolerance:
Every trader is different. Understand how much capital you're comfortable risking per trade. For many, this is 1-2% of their total account. This ensures that no single loss can wipe you out.
Set Stop-Losses and Stick to Them:
A stop-loss isn't just a suggestion—it’s a commitment. Place your stop-loss at a point that invalidates your trade idea, not just where it feels convenient. Once it's set, never move it in the heat of the moment.
Position Sizing:
The size of your position should be based on the distance to your stop-loss and the percentage of your capital you're willing to risk. If a trade requires a wider stop, consider reducing your position size to maintain consistent risk.
Diversify Smartly:
Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Diversification doesn’t mean trading more; it means spreading your risk. Avoid overexposure to a single market or asset class.
Accept and Learn from Losses:
Losses are part of trading. What separates successful traders from the rest is their ability to minimize those losses and learn from them. Every loss is a lesson—an opportunity to refine your approach and strengthen your discipline.
The Emotional Side of Risk Management
Emotions are one of the biggest challenges traders face. Fear and greed can lead to impulsive decisions, such as holding onto losing trades in the hope they’ll turn around or risking too much on a single "sure thing." Effective risk management helps counteract these emotional pitfalls. When you know your risk is controlled, you trade with greater confidence and clarity.
Sticking to your risk management plan, especially during a losing streak, can be tough. It requires discipline and patience. But remember, trading is a marathon, not a sprint. Protecting your capital today ensures you have the opportunity to trade tomorrow.
Conclusion
Risk management isn't the most glamorous part of trading, but it is the most vital. It's the foundation upon which all successful trading is built. Without it, even the best strategies and the most skilled traders are vulnerable. With it, you create a framework that allows you to navigate the unpredictable markets with confidence.
In trading, it's not about how much you can make—it’s about how much you can keep. Master risk management, and you master the art of trading.
Several factors suggest a potential downturn for the Dow Jones ISeveral factors suggest a potential downturn for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) in the near term:
Technical Indicators:
• Overbought Conditions: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that US30 is approaching overbought levels, which often precedes a price correction.
• Bearish Divergence: A rising wedge pattern coupled with bearish divergence signals a possible downward movement.
Economic Data:
• Manufacturing Slowdown: The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.4 in November but remains below the 50 threshold, indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector.
• GDP Growth Concerns: Recent data shows the U.S. economy grew at its slowest pace in two years, with a 1.6% increase in GDP for the first quarter of 2024, missing forecasts.
Federal Reserve Policies:
• Cautious Approach to Rate Cuts: Federal Reserve officials have signaled a cautious approach to future interest rate cuts amid strong economic performance and cooling inflation, which may impact investor sentiment.
Market Sentiment:
• Strengthening U.S. Dollar: A rising U.S. dollar could pose challenges for stock-market bulls, potentially hindering further equity-market gains.
• Technical Caution: Analysts warn of potential market corrections, with models indicating possible downturns during the holiday week.
Considering these factors, there is a potential for US30 to experience a decline in the near future. However, market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s advisable to monitor real-time data and news updates for the most accurate information.
October is Going to be a BloodbathDon’t Follow the Herd: A Rare Opportunity to Take Profits
Don't believe the media or the herd when they tell you to buy NVDA and hold the stock market. This is a rare opportunity to take profits and possibly speculate short on the market. The current Elliott Wave count implies a crash in October, and NVDA, which topped out nearly 100 days ago, WILL lead the way down. Let's summarize some of the key reasons why you should be bearish:
Elliott Wave Ending Diagonal: Signaling a Crash
Current Elliott Wave analysis shows we are in an ending diagonal pattern. This formation is known for indicating the final stages of a trend, often leading to sharp reversals or crashes. The completion of this pattern suggests that a major decline may be imminent, with little room left for further upside. THERE DOES NOT NEED TO BE A CATALYST. In fact, with a probabilistic Elliott Wave count, we can predict the so-called "catalyst" before it even occurs. An ending diagonal suggests bank failures may be near.
Yield Curve Uninversion: A Recession Signal Warren Buffett Watches Closely
The yield curve uninversion is one of the most reliable recession indicators, and it’s no secret that Warren Buffett keeps an eye on it. I’m not a big fan of Buffett, but historically, his timing is incredible, and yield curve uninversion is one of his main timing tools. Historically, this signal has a near-perfect track record in predicting recessions. We’ve now officially entered uninverted territory, and this alone is cause for concern.
FED Pivot: Following the Market Lower
Looking at past crises, particularly 2007-2008 and 1929-1932, the Federal Reserve’s pivot is often a sign of the central bank following the market lower. From 1929 to 1932, the federal funds rate dropped from 6% to 2.5%, and yet the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell by 89%. Similarly, in 2007-2008, the federal funds rate went from 4.76% to 0.22%, and stocks fell by 54% (DJIA). We are seeing a similar scenario unfold today, suggesting further downside risk ahead.
Extreme Sentiment: Higher Than 1929, 2007, and 2021
Sentiment is at extreme levels. Consumer predictions of higher equity prices in the next 12 months are at an all-time high, surpassing even the exuberance seen in 1929, 2007, and 2021. If you’re bullish, just remember—you’re moving with the herd.
Momentum Divergence Signals a Major Top
A 25-year-long momentum divergence is also flashing warning signs, agreeing with the view that a major market top is near.
Take Advantage of Peak Sentiment
If your goal as an investor is to buy low and sell high, statistics show us that investors are MOST bullish at the top and MOST bearish at the bottom. If you want to buy low and sell high, then you need to be selling into peak optimism and buying into peak pessimism. This is an opportunity to take profits, hedge, or if you are a experienced trader: speculate short.
Good luck,
Bardini Capital
us30 - 15 min ( Buy Scalping After Break 45050 Level ) US30 / FXCM
Best Break Our / Key level's 15m Tf
🚨Bullish After Break Out key level + High Volume / 45045 Area
🚨Bearish After Break Out key level + High Volume / 44635 Area
⚡️ We Only Sent Most Accurate Opportunity and Analysis Not by Number ..
🔖 Announcement Coming After Successful Break
US30 - Bullish Momentum is under Control...Technical Analysis
The price was about to record a new ATH around 45200 before any dropping. It now shows a bullish volume, with potential targets at 45200 and 44,520.
Bullish Scenario:
As long as the price trades above 44930 and 44750, the bullish trend will continue toward 45200 and 45500
Bearish Scenario:
The price must stabilize under 44750, confirmed by a 4-hour candle close, to target 44400.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 44930
Resistance Levels: 45200, 45500, 45600
Support Levels: 44750, 44400, 44270
Trend Outlook:
Uptrend while above 44750 and 44920
