change the trendGiven the price behavior within the current support range, an upward trend is expected to form up to the specified resistance levels
US30 trade ideas
DOW JONES: Short term consolidation to lead to 46,100.Dow Jones is on a very healthy bullish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 64.961, MACD = 523.800, ADX = 24.313) as the bullish trend inside the 5 month Channel Up is still intact. In fact it is not just intact but the index is basically on All Time High levels, supported by the 4H MA50. The Channel Up is highly symmetric and technically we believe we are on the same level as September 30th. The index was inside a shorter term Channel Up, which after a 4H MA100 test, it rallied to the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. The bearish divergence on the 4H RSI was as evident then as it is now. The two fractals are virtually identical, hence we project a similar result. Buy and target the 1.5 Fib (TP = 46,100).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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US30 Trend:
The chart shows a bullish channel forming after breaking out from a prior consolidation zone.
The price is currently testing the lower boundary of the channel.
Key Fibonacci Levels:
The price is reacting near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (44,888), which is a critical support zone.
Further downside could test 44,782 (50% Fib).
RSI:
The RSI is showing a bearish divergence (lower highs on RSI vs higher highs on price), indicating potential weakening of bullish momentum.
Support and Resistance:
Support: 44,888 (Fib 61.8%) and channel support.
Resistance: 45,105 (channel top) and 45,030 (Fib 78.6%).
What to Do:
If Bullish:
Look for price to hold above 44,888 and the lower boundary of the bullish channel.
Entry: Buy near support with a target toward 45,030 or higher.
Stop-loss: Below 44,780.
If Bearish:
If the price breaks below 44,888 and the channel, consider a short.
Entry: Sell on a confirmed breakdown with targets toward 44,782 or 44,613.
Stop-loss: Above 44,950.
Neutral Approach:
Wait for a clear breakout or breakdown from the current channel to confirm direction.
Focus on volume and RSI behavior for further confirmation of trend continuation or reversal.
Mastering Risk Management: The Silent Key to Trading SuccessMastering Risk Management: The Silent Key to Trading Success
In the world of trading, risk management is often the unsung hero. While many traders obsess over finding the perfect strategy or predicting the next market move, those who truly succeed understand that managing risk is the cornerstone of long-term profitability. Without it, even the most brilliant trading plan can crumble. With it, you build a resilient foundation that allows you to weather the inevitable storms and capitalize on opportunities.
What is Risk Management?
Risk management isn't just a set of rules; it's a mindset and a discipline. It’s the process of identifying, assessing, and controlling potential losses. This goes beyond simply setting stop-loss orders or adjusting position sizes. It's about adopting a framework that ensures every trading decision is made with a clear understanding of the potential downside. Before entering any trade, ask yourself: "What am I willing to lose?" rather than "How much could I gain?"
Why Risk Management Matters
Imagine driving a car without brakes. No matter how powerful the engine or how skilled the driver, the lack of brakes turns every journey into a potential disaster. In trading, risk management is your braking system. It keeps you in control, preventing small mistakes from turning into catastrophic losses.
Many traders focus on their win rate, but it's the size of your losses that often determines your success. Even a strategy with a 50% win rate can be highly profitable if your average loss is much smaller than your average gain. Conversely, a trader who wins 80% of the time but suffers massive losses on the other 20% will likely fail in the long run.
Practical Steps to Effective Risk Management
Know Your Risk Tolerance:
Every trader is different. Understand how much capital you're comfortable risking per trade. For many, this is 1-2% of their total account. This ensures that no single loss can wipe you out.
Set Stop-Losses and Stick to Them:
A stop-loss isn't just a suggestion—it’s a commitment. Place your stop-loss at a point that invalidates your trade idea, not just where it feels convenient. Once it's set, never move it in the heat of the moment.
Position Sizing:
The size of your position should be based on the distance to your stop-loss and the percentage of your capital you're willing to risk. If a trade requires a wider stop, consider reducing your position size to maintain consistent risk.
Diversify Smartly:
Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Diversification doesn’t mean trading more; it means spreading your risk. Avoid overexposure to a single market or asset class.
Accept and Learn from Losses:
Losses are part of trading. What separates successful traders from the rest is their ability to minimize those losses and learn from them. Every loss is a lesson—an opportunity to refine your approach and strengthen your discipline.
The Emotional Side of Risk Management
Emotions are one of the biggest challenges traders face. Fear and greed can lead to impulsive decisions, such as holding onto losing trades in the hope they’ll turn around or risking too much on a single "sure thing." Effective risk management helps counteract these emotional pitfalls. When you know your risk is controlled, you trade with greater confidence and clarity.
Sticking to your risk management plan, especially during a losing streak, can be tough. It requires discipline and patience. But remember, trading is a marathon, not a sprint. Protecting your capital today ensures you have the opportunity to trade tomorrow.
Conclusion
Risk management isn't the most glamorous part of trading, but it is the most vital. It's the foundation upon which all successful trading is built. Without it, even the best strategies and the most skilled traders are vulnerable. With it, you create a framework that allows you to navigate the unpredictable markets with confidence.
In trading, it's not about how much you can make—it’s about how much you can keep. Master risk management, and you master the art of trading.
Several factors suggest a potential downturn for the Dow Jones ISeveral factors suggest a potential downturn for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) in the near term:
Technical Indicators:
• Overbought Conditions: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that US30 is approaching overbought levels, which often precedes a price correction.
• Bearish Divergence: A rising wedge pattern coupled with bearish divergence signals a possible downward movement.
Economic Data:
• Manufacturing Slowdown: The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.4 in November but remains below the 50 threshold, indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector.
• GDP Growth Concerns: Recent data shows the U.S. economy grew at its slowest pace in two years, with a 1.6% increase in GDP for the first quarter of 2024, missing forecasts.
Federal Reserve Policies:
• Cautious Approach to Rate Cuts: Federal Reserve officials have signaled a cautious approach to future interest rate cuts amid strong economic performance and cooling inflation, which may impact investor sentiment.
Market Sentiment:
• Strengthening U.S. Dollar: A rising U.S. dollar could pose challenges for stock-market bulls, potentially hindering further equity-market gains.
• Technical Caution: Analysts warn of potential market corrections, with models indicating possible downturns during the holiday week.
Considering these factors, there is a potential for US30 to experience a decline in the near future. However, market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s advisable to monitor real-time data and news updates for the most accurate information.
October is Going to be a BloodbathDon’t Follow the Herd: A Rare Opportunity to Take Profits
Don't believe the media or the herd when they tell you to buy NVDA and hold the stock market. This is a rare opportunity to take profits and possibly speculate short on the market. The current Elliott Wave count implies a crash in October, and NVDA, which topped out nearly 100 days ago, WILL lead the way down. Let's summarize some of the key reasons why you should be bearish:
Elliott Wave Ending Diagonal: Signaling a Crash
Current Elliott Wave analysis shows we are in an ending diagonal pattern. This formation is known for indicating the final stages of a trend, often leading to sharp reversals or crashes. The completion of this pattern suggests that a major decline may be imminent, with little room left for further upside. THERE DOES NOT NEED TO BE A CATALYST. In fact, with a probabilistic Elliott Wave count, we can predict the so-called "catalyst" before it even occurs. An ending diagonal suggests bank failures may be near.
Yield Curve Uninversion: A Recession Signal Warren Buffett Watches Closely
The yield curve uninversion is one of the most reliable recession indicators, and it’s no secret that Warren Buffett keeps an eye on it. I’m not a big fan of Buffett, but historically, his timing is incredible, and yield curve uninversion is one of his main timing tools. Historically, this signal has a near-perfect track record in predicting recessions. We’ve now officially entered uninverted territory, and this alone is cause for concern.
FED Pivot: Following the Market Lower
Looking at past crises, particularly 2007-2008 and 1929-1932, the Federal Reserve’s pivot is often a sign of the central bank following the market lower. From 1929 to 1932, the federal funds rate dropped from 6% to 2.5%, and yet the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell by 89%. Similarly, in 2007-2008, the federal funds rate went from 4.76% to 0.22%, and stocks fell by 54% (DJIA). We are seeing a similar scenario unfold today, suggesting further downside risk ahead.
Extreme Sentiment: Higher Than 1929, 2007, and 2021
Sentiment is at extreme levels. Consumer predictions of higher equity prices in the next 12 months are at an all-time high, surpassing even the exuberance seen in 1929, 2007, and 2021. If you’re bullish, just remember—you’re moving with the herd.
Momentum Divergence Signals a Major Top
A 25-year-long momentum divergence is also flashing warning signs, agreeing with the view that a major market top is near.
Take Advantage of Peak Sentiment
If your goal as an investor is to buy low and sell high, statistics show us that investors are MOST bullish at the top and MOST bearish at the bottom. If you want to buy low and sell high, then you need to be selling into peak optimism and buying into peak pessimism. This is an opportunity to take profits, hedge, or if you are a experienced trader: speculate short.
Good luck,
Bardini Capital
us30 - 15 min ( Buy Scalping After Break 45050 Level ) US30 / FXCM
Best Break Our / Key level's 15m Tf
🚨Bullish After Break Out key level + High Volume / 45045 Area
🚨Bearish After Break Out key level + High Volume / 44635 Area
⚡️ We Only Sent Most Accurate Opportunity and Analysis Not by Number ..
🔖 Announcement Coming After Successful Break
US30 - Bullish Momentum is under Control...Technical Analysis
The price was about to record a new ATH around 45200 before any dropping. It now shows a bullish volume, with potential targets at 45200 and 44,520.
Bullish Scenario:
As long as the price trades above 44930 and 44750, the bullish trend will continue toward 45200 and 45500
Bearish Scenario:
The price must stabilize under 44750, confirmed by a 4-hour candle close, to target 44400.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 44930
Resistance Levels: 45200, 45500, 45600
Support Levels: 44750, 44400, 44270
Trend Outlook:
Uptrend while above 44750 and 44920
**US30 Index 2023-2026 Outlook** The US30 Index (Dow Jones Industrial Average) is poised for significant moves in the 2023-2025 cycle, with strong probabilities of reaching a new all-time high between **48,000-49,000**. This surge is driven by favorable macroeconomic conditions, corporate earnings strength, and renewed investor confidence. The rally could push the index to unprecedented levels by early to mid-2025, solidifying its dominance as a barometer of the U.S. stock market.
However, by mid-2025, the index is expected to enter a **prolonged downtrend**. This correction would likely target a critical support level near the **37,125 mark**, which was the previous all-time high in January 2022. Importantly, the index is forecasted to **retest but not breach** this level, finding support between **37,500-38,000**. A successful defense of this zone would signal resilience in the market, hinting at investor willingness to re-engage at these levels.
Such a scenario would set the stage for a **renewed bull cycle** starting from late 2025 and extending through the end of 2026. This period could be characterized by steady gains, driven by a combination of macroeconomic stabilization and improving market sentiment. Investors may interpret the refusal to break below 37,500 as a **clear sign of a long-term bottom**, prompting accumulation and positioning for the next upward leg.
This cycle suggests a strategic opportunity for both short-term and long-term investors to capitalize on market movements.
US30: Bullish Across All Time FramesUS30: Bullish Across All Time Frames
On the Weekly, Daily, and 4-Hour charts, US30 is in a clear bullish trend. Throughout its upward movement, US30 has continuously developed bullish patterns, breaking out and creating new all-time highs.
Currently, US30 is in a similar situation. The price has formed a bullish triangle pattern and appears ready to rise again.
Once the price breaks through the pattern, US30 is expected to begin another impulsive wave, as shown in the chart.
The price has to rise above 45082 in order to begin the bullish trend again.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
DOW JONES High Channel Up symmetry points to 46000.Dow Jones (DJI) easily hit our 45000 Target as suggested on our November 20 idea (see chart below), and immediately turned sideways, consolidating basically for the past 6 days:
This is not the first time that we've come across this consolidation within the 4-month Channel Up as the exact same sequence was last seen during September 20 - October 08. As with today's price action, the consolidation also took place above the 1.0 Fibonacci level and once completed, it gave one final push to the 1.5 Fibonacci extension before correcting back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
As a result, we now set a new Target for the end of the year at 46000.
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US 30 heading into trouble?Hi guys,
The Dow Jones US 30 is also grinding slowly higher and continually making all time highs.
Currently price is heading towards an area where we may find some strong selling pressure.
The highlighted box on the chart is taht area and it contains the 2.0 retracement of the bear market high to low. I think this level is more significant due to the fact that the previous level of 161.8 did not provide any resistance.
The upper trendline also coincides with this area . Weekly RSI is showing massive divergence but thats been like that for a long time. Daily is showing divergence but not quite in overbought. 4 hour is showing divergence and clearly overbought.
Lower time frame entry using candlestick chart patterns etc could lead to some nice risk to reward trades.
Safe Trading all.
US30 Trade IdeaUS30 - Liquidity Grab Suggests Bullish Momentum
The US30 (Dow Jones Index) has swept liquidity at a critical support zone, signaling a potential bullish continuation. This move indicates that the market has absorbed selling pressure and may be preparing for a rally.
Key Observations:
Liquidity Sweep: A significant dip below the support level captured stop-losses and trapped sellers, providing the smart money an opportunity to reverse the trend.
Market Structure: Price is showing signs of recovery with bullish rejections from the liquidity zone.
Confirmation: Break on specific level will add strength to the bullish bias.
Trade Plan:
Entry: Buy on specific level upon confirmation of bullish momentum.
Stop Loss: Below the recent liquidity sweep for a calculated risk.
Take Profit: Targeting resistance levels around .
Risk Management:
Ensure a favorable risk-reward ratio, and avoid over-leveraging. This trade aligns with a broader uptrend in US30, but patience and discipline remain key.
Dow Jones_1HDow Jones index analysis Elliott wave analysis style Completion of five rising waves in Hotah time and the possibility of a downward correction Important resistance 44800 The main and important support is 43,900 Meanwhile, in the long term, any low towards 43900 can be bought for the long term.
