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NSDQ100 The Week Ahead 24th March '25NSDQ100 bearish & oversold, the key trading level is at 20090 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:USTEC
by TradeNation
US100 - Testing Key Resistance: Will the 4H Trend Reverse?Market Structure & Trend Overview The Nasdaq (US100) has been in a 4-hour uptrend, forming a series of higher lows and respecting an ascending channel after a prolonged bearish trend. This structure suggests that buyers are stepping in, and momentum may be shifting in favor of the bulls. However, the index remains at a critical decision point that could determine whether we see a confirmed bullish reversal or a continuation of the larger downtrend. Key Zone: 4H Imbalance & Resistance Area Currently, price action is testing a 4-hour imbalance zone, which has already acted as a strong resistance level twice. The market is struggling to break through this supply zone, which is crucial in determining the next major move. If price tests this area again and successfully breaks above it, it could confirm that buyers have gained control, signaling a potential trend reversal back into a bullish phase. However, if price gets rejected from this level again, it could indicate that sellers are still dominant, increasing the probability of a breakdown from the ascending channel and a resumption of the bearish trend. Bullish Scenario: Break & Hold Above Imbalance Zone For a confirmed bullish reversal, Nasdaq must break above the imbalance zone with strong volume and sustain price action above it. A successful breakout could attract more buyers, leading to a push towards higher resistance levels, possibly targeting the $20,000 - $20,300 range in the short term. Signs to look for in a bullish breakout: ✅ A decisive close above the imbalance zone with strong bullish momentum. ✅ Retesting the broken level as support, confirming it as a new demand zone. ✅ A continuation of higher highs and higher lows after the breakout. Bearish Scenario: Breakdown of the Ascending Channel If price fails to break through the imbalance zone and instead rejects for the third time, this could indicate a weakening bullish structure. The key support to watch is the lower boundary of the ascending channel. A confirmed break below this channel could invalidate the short-term uptrend, signaling a return to bearish price action. If this occurs, Nasdaq could drop towards the key support level at $19,146, a previous liquidity zone where buyers may step in again. Signs to watch for a bearish breakdown: ❌ A clear rejection from the imbalance zone. ❌ A break and close below the ascending channel. ❌ Increased selling pressure and a shift in market sentiment. Final Thoughts: A Critical Inflection Point Nasdaq is at a pivotal moment where the next move will determine the broader trend direction. If bulls can push price above the imbalance zone, we could see a confirmed bullish reversal with upside potential. However, if sellers regain control and force a breakdown of the channel, the downtrend is likely to continue, targeting the $19,146 level as a potential support zone. Traders should closely monitor price action at the imbalance zone and the ascending channel boundaries, as these key areas will dictate the next major move. Whether we see a trend reversal or continuation, this setup presents significant trading opportunities in either direction. Key Levels to Watch: 📍 Bullish Breakout Target: $19,900 - $20,000 📍 Bearish Breakdown Target: $19,146 __________________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀 Make sure to follow me for more price action insights, free indicators, and trading strategies. Let’s grow and trade smarter together! 📈
FPMARKETS:US100
by TehThomas
22
NDX Trading-RoadMap Weekly • Context: Overall uptrend from 2022 is intact but under pressure as price slipped below some key weekly moving averages and trendline supports. • Key Takeaway: The bigger picture has not fully turned bearish yet, but momentum has cooled. If the weekly chart remains above ~17,800–18,000, that “long‐term uptrend” viewpoint is still viable. Daily • Trend: Lower highs and lower lows (short‐term downtrend). Price is below the 200‐day SMA (~20,300) and also below the 50/100‐day SMAs (~21,000). • Focus: Watch if price can reclaim the 200‐day SMA (20,200–20,700 zone) on a daily closing basis. That’s a major pivot for a potential reversal to the upside. • Support: 19,000–19,200 is the near‐term floor; losing that puts 18,400–18,800 in play. • Resistance: 19,900–20,100 (initial supply), then 20,200–20,700 (200‐day + Fib). 4H (Shorter‐Term) • Recent Development: A bounce off ~19,150. MACD turned bullish on 4H, RSI improved from oversold. • Trendline: The steep 4H downtrend line has been broken; price is testing overhead supply near 19,900–20,000. • Key Focus: Does the 4H momentum carry price above 20,000+? If so, next stops are 20,200–20,700. If it stalls, watch for a return to ~19,200 or lower. 2. Key Levels to Track 1. Immediate Support Zones • 19,600–19,700: Minor 4H pivot / mid Bollinger band on 4H. • 19,000–19,200: Major short‐term floor; also a bullish order block from prior lows. 2. Deeper Supports • 18,400–18,800: Strong demand if 19k fails. • 17,800–18,000: Critical weekly zone, where the longer‐term uptrend would truly be at risk. 3. Immediate Resistance Zones • 19,900–20,100: Overhead supply on Daily/4H; first real challenge for bulls. • 20,200–20,700: Major confluence (200‐day SMA, Bollinger mid band on Daily, Ichimoku lower cloud boundary). • 21,000–22,200: Larger daily/weekly supply if the index fully recovers. 4. Fibonacci Confluences • From the larger swing: 50% retracement ~19,893. • From the smaller daily swing: 23.6% ~19,886, 50% ~20,706. • Keep an eye if price clusters or reverses around these fib levels. 3. Indicators You’ll Watch Each Day • Daily Ichimoku: Price below the cloud → short‐term bias still bearish. A daily close back inside/above the cloud (~20,200–20,400) would be a significant bullish sign. • Daily MACD: Still negative, but flattening. A bullish crossover on the daily could confirm the 4H bounce is turning into a multi‐day uptrend. • Daily RSI: Hovering near 40–45. If it reclaims 50+, that’s a better sign of daily upside momentum. • 4H MACD: Already bullish; watch if it remains that way or starts to roll over near resistance. • 4H RSI: Currently ~45–50 or slightly higher. Over 60 would reinforce short‐term upside. • Volume / OBV: See if up moves come on higher volume or if OBV slopes upward. That would show genuine buying pressure. 4. Daily Checklist / “If‐Then” Triggers Use this section as a morning or intraday reference when you see price approaching certain zones. A) Bullish Attempt • IF price breaks above ~19,900–20,000 THEN: • Check for 4H or daily candle close above that zone. • Confirm if 4H MACD/RSI remain bullish. • Potential next target: ~20,200–20,700. • IF price subsequently closes above 20,200–20,300 THEN: • This reclaims the 200‐day SMA → a bigger shift to bullish. • Daily RSI likely near or above 50. • Next target: ~21,000–21,500, with an eye on the 22k supply zone. • IF 19,600–19,700 holds as support on a pullback, THEN watch for 4H bullish patterns to confirm a bounce. Potential to re‐attempt 19,900–20,000. B) Bearish Continuation • IF price rejects ~19,900–20,100 (4H or daily closes back under 19,600) THEN: • Expect a drift back to test 19,200–19,000. • Check if 4H RSI crosses below 40, MACD turns down again. • If that zone fails, 18,800–18,400 is next support. • IF daily closes below 19,000 THEN: • The bullish bounce scenario is invalidated. • Target a deeper move to 18,400–18,800, possibly 18,000 if momentum is strong. 5. What to Avoid 1. Over‐Leveraging: With the index near pivotal levels, volatility can spike. Keep position sizes within your risk tolerance. 2. Chasing Mid‐Zone: If price is between major zones (e.g., 19,600–19,700), entering randomly without a clear signal can lead to whipsaws. Wait for a confirmed break or test of a zone. 3. Ignoring Conflicting Timeframes: Weekly vs. Daily vs. 4H may conflict. If you see a 4H bullish signal but daily is still firmly bearish, manage risk accordingly (e.g., smaller size, quicker profit targets). 6. Risk Management & Positioning • Stop Placement: • For short‐term trades, use 4H ATR (~300 points) or place stops just beyond key swing highs/lows. • For swing trades, consider daily ATR (~400–450 points) to avoid normal intraday noise. • Targets: • Set at least two profit objectives. For bullish trades, T1 near 20,200–20,300, T2 near 21k+. For bearish trades, T1 near 19k, T2 near 18.4k. • Moving Stops to Breakeven: • Once T1 is reached or a clear pivot forms in your favor, consider moving your stop to entry to lock in any open profit. 7. Potential News/Events That May Override Technicals • U.S. Economic Data: Watch for major releases (CPI, Fed announcements, Tech sector earnings). These can create sudden volatility that breaks your technical zones. • Global Sentiment Shifts: If risk aversion hits equity markets broadly, NDX could gap lower through supports. Alternatively, any strong bullish news in major tech names could swiftly break resistances. 8. Weekly Summary Action Plan 1. Check Weekly & Daily: • Are we still below the daily 200‐SMA (~20,300)? If yes, short‐term momentum is likely bearish unless proven otherwise by the 4H breakout. • Is the index forming a weekly candle that regains the prior trend channel or 50‐week SMA? That would be a bullish sign. 2. Monitor 19,900–20,100 & 19,000: • These levels will dictate a lot of the week’s direction. A break above 20,000 on solid volume is your bullish trigger; a fail at 19,900 or a breakdown below 19,000 reaffirms the bearish narrative. 3. Intraday (4H) Observation: • If price hovers between 19,600 and 19,900, remain cautious until a decisive push emerges. • Use the 4H MACD/RSI to gauge if momentum is building up (or rolling over). 4. Risk Profile Guidance: • Aggressive: Trade around 19,600–19,700 with tight stops, aiming for quick breaks. • Moderate: Wait for 4H closes above or below key pivot zones (19,900–20,000 or 19,200–19,000). • Conservative: Look for daily closes beyond 20,200 or under 19,000 before committing to positions. 5. Adapt & React: • If you see a bullish break that fails intraday (price wicks above 19,900 but closes back below 19,600 on a 4H candle), that’s a potential short signal. • Conversely, if price dips intraday to 19,200–19,300, but the 4H closes back above 19,600, that’s a potential bullish reversal cue.
NASDAQ:NDX
by EliteMarketAnalysis
Bearish Alert: Nasdaq’s Downtrend May Deepen Beyond 5%Hey Realistic Traders, Will CAPITALCOM:US100 Bearish Trend Stop? Let’s Dive In.... On the H4 timeframe, Nasdaq continues to follow the bearish trendline and the EMA-200 . Both trend analysis tools clearly signal a bearish trend. The downtrend may persist as a rising wedge pattern has formed, followed by a breakout and a MACD crossover. Based on these technical signals, I anticipate a potential downward movement toward the first target at 19,077. After reaching this level, a minor pullback is likely before the decline continues toward a new low at 18,544. This outlook remains valid as long as the price move below the stop-loss level at 20,080 Besides technical factors, U.S. President Donald Trump still intends to implement new reciprocal tariff rates on April 2, adding further uncertainty to the market. This could limit growth potential and contribute to an inflationary environment by increasing the cost of imported goods. Given this uncertainty, we believe the market will continue to decline. Support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your opinions in the comments below. Disclaimer: "Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on Nasdaq.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by financialfreedomgoals101
2
NASDAQ WATCH: EYEING SHORT ENTRY ON PULLBACK!🔴 PLANNED SHORT US100 @ 21,404.0 ✅ Catalyst: Awaiting retest of 21,404 as resistance after breakdown below 21,500. 🛑 SL: 22,300.0 🎯 TP1: 19,493.2 (1:2.1 R:R) 🎯 TP2: 18,900.8 (1:2.8 R:R) 🎯 TP3: 18,104.1 (1:3.7 R:R) 📊 Chart: Broken support at 21,500; pullback to entry zone would confirm bearish bias. 🌍 Context: Tech stocks face pressure from rising yields and AI profit-taking. 💬 "Waiting for confirmation—would you short this pullback? 👇" #NASDAQ #US100 #Trading #TradeSetup Key Notes: Risk: 1-2% capital if entry triggers. Patience Pays: Entry only valid on rejection at 21,404. Strategy: High-reward short if resistance holds.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by whitebeardfx