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PREPARING TO GO SHORT ON NASDAQNAS100 4H - As you can see price has now traded into the Supply Zone we have had marked out for some time now, I am wanting to see price begin to break down and distribute giving us the ability to get involved in this market with some shorts. I have gone ahead and marked out the last protected low within the fractal structure of this market, a break in this would confirm that the correction trading us up and into the zone has finished and a new bearish leg is ready to be printed in the market. We can expect an S&D flip as Supply is introduced from this zone and Demand is removed from all the buy orders that have pushed price up and into this area to begin with. Once we have relevant confirmation this is when we can prepare for those shorts. After the BOS we can expect price to pullback putting in a lower high, following those laws of bearish structure, so its important we find the fractal area of Supply price may come to trade up and into to set that.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Short
by Lukegforex
6
USTEC gained as earningsUSTEC gained as earnings from Micron provided a temporary boost to a market that has been trading sideways. The chipmaker reported strong sales of high-bandwidth memory chips in 1Q, along with upbeat revenue, earnings, and an optimistic forward outlook. USTEC broke its consolidation and the psychological resistance at 20000, confirming an uptrend continuation. The diverging bullish EMAs show strong upward momentum. If USTEC extends its surge, the index may target the record high around 20700. On the contrary, USTEC may return to 20000 if the index pulls back before its continuation.
TRADENATION:USTEC
by Exness_Official
Analysis of NASDAQ 100 (H1) - Technical Breakdown (Sep 26 2024)1. Wyckoff Accumulation & Distribution Phases: This chart heavily applies Wyckoff's methodology, which is built on the phases of market accumulation and distribution. The schematic is drawn to reflect the following phases: Phase A marks the preliminary support (PSY) and automatic rally (AR), where initial buying pressure emerges after a prolonged downtrend, indicating early signs of accumulation. Phase B represents a secondary test (ST) and an upward thrust (UT) within the trading range. This phase signals the testing of supply and the building of a cause for future price movement. Phase C typically includes a "spring" or test of support, but this chart appears to be leaning towards a distribution pattern as the price tests the upper boundary. We can observe signs of a Sign of Weakness (SOW) in Phase B, suggesting a potential shift from accumulation to distribution, as supply overwhelms demand at higher price levels. 2. Elliott Wave Count: The Elliott Wave theory, which describes price movements in predictable wave patterns, is applied to the broader structure. The chart indicates the presence of a five-wave impulsive pattern (labeled 1-5): Wave 1 seems to have completed near the automatic rally (AR). Wave 2 traces back towards the end of the rally, with Wave 3 extending beyond the buying climax (BC). The final wave (Wave 5) culminates with an upward thrust (UT) in Phase B, which could signal the completion of the current cycle, leading to a bearish correction or retracement. 3. Harmonic Patterns: There is a clear integration of harmonic patterns within this chart, which is often used to predict potential reversal zones based on Fibonacci ratios. The highlighted zone with Fibonacci extensions (0.618, 1.236) suggests a potential area for a retracement: The butterfly harmonic pattern outlined between Phase A and Phase B suggests that after the buying climax (BC), the price is primed for a pullback as it approaches key Fibonacci resistance levels. The Bearish Bat pattern shows convergence near the upper resistance level (around 19,900-20,120), which corresponds with the end of Wave 5 in the Elliott Wave structure. 4. Fibonacci Levels and Retracements: Key Fibonacci retracement levels have been plotted, notably the 0.618 and 1.236 extensions. These levels serve as potential resistance or support zones in the chart. The price action initially retraced to the 0.618 Fibonacci level (around 19,567), marking a key level for potential support. If the 1.236 extension level (19,576) holds as resistance, it could validate the bearish scenario suggested by the Wyckoff distribution and harmonic pattern convergence. 5. Volume and Price Momentum: Though the volume is not displayed, the POC (Point of Control) is marked, which represents the price level where the highest volume of trading occurs within the given period. It aligns with a strong support zone at around 19,567. RSI Indicator (represented by the red line below the price chart) appears to show weakening momentum, particularly in Phase B, further supporting the potential for a downward move as the price begins to test upper resistance levels. 6. ICT (Inner Circle Trader) Model Reference: There is a reference to ICT’s Classic Weekly Profile. This model suggests a predictable weekly price structure where Monday typically creates a low or high for the week, followed by a mid-week reversal. The chart points to a possible reversal towards the middle of the week, supported by the Wyckoff distribution and harmonic setups. 7. Key Resistance and Support Zones: Several key levels are highlighted: Upper Resistance (19,962.5 - 20,120): These zones, indicated by the buying climax (BC) and upper thrust (UT), are likely to serve as strong resistance as the price begins to retrace. Support Zones: The area near 19,567 (0.618 retracement) and 19,490 marks a significant support zone, where demand could potentially re-enter if prices pull back sharply. 8. Wave Invalidation Points: The chart includes an invalidating point for Wave 4. If the price breaches this level, the current wave structure would be invalidated, and a deeper correction might be expected. The potential invalidation could occur near 19,322, signaling a breakdown in the bullish impulse wave count. Conclusion: In summary, this NASDAQ 100 chart reflects a complex but highly informative mix of Wyckoff Distribution, Elliott Wave Theory, and Harmonic Patterns with Fibonacci retracements. The ongoing phase seems to indicate a transition towards a bearish correction, particularly as prices approach major resistance zones around 19,900 to 20,120. Traders should monitor key support levels near 19,567 and below, as a breach of these levels would likely trigger deeper corrective moves in line with the Wyckoff and Elliott Wave structures.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Short
by spacedevil
NAS100USD / UNDER (Sep) MONTH PRESSURE - 4HNAS100USD / 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS Initial Decline: In the first part of September, prices fell by 8.21%. This indicates a negative trend early in the month. Mid-Month Rise: By the middle of September, prices reversed and began to increase, rising by 10.25%. This suggests a recovery or positive momentum starting mid-month. End of Month Expectation: It is expected that by the end of the month, prices will rise further, reaching a total increase of 14.45%. This projection suggests a continuation of the positive trend that started mid-month. Overall, the prices of nas100usd a volatile price movement, with an initial drop followed by a recovery and an expected significant increase by the end of September. Technical Analysis: Current Market Condition: The asset is under bullish pressure , As long as the price remains above 19,954, the bullish momentum is expected to continue. Upward Condition: - Target 1: If the price trades above 19,954, it's expected to rise to 20,432. - Target 2: If the price stabilizes above 20.432, the next target is 20,797$. Downward Condition: - If the price falls below 19,954 , it suggests a potential decline: - Target 1: A decline to 19,844. - Target 2: If it breaks below 19,844, further decline is expected to 19,535.
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by ArinaKarayi
Nasdaq Long Memory updated Technical Analysis: The market is currently trading within an ascending channel, characterized by two distinct touches on both the upper resistance and lower support levels. We recently observed a bullish rebound from the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level, where sell pressure was rejected, allowing buyers to take control. Given this setup, there is a strong likelihood that the market will test the resistance level for a third time, with potential new highs projected between 20,500 and 20,800. Fundamental Analysis: As we enter the fourth quarter, seasonal consumer behavior, particularly driven by the upcoming festive period, is expected to influence the markets. With an uptick in consumer spending, many companies are likely to see a boost in sales, providing a positive backdrop for continued bullish momentum. Another catalyst for this period is yet to emerge but may further support the bullish outlook as we progress through Q4. Current Position: I am currently holding a long position, having identified 19,915 as a key resistance level that has recently been breached. The daily candlestick closed firmly above this level, indicating potential support for the continuation of the bullish trend. This breakout reinforces the case for upward momentum in the near term.
FOREXCOM:NAS100Long
by MrMosako
1
Detailed Breakdown of NASDAQ (NAS100) 1H Chart1. Wyckoff Distribution: Understanding the Phases The Wyckoff Distribution model is essential for spotting market reversals. Here's a phase-by-phase breakdown of what's happening on the chart: Phase A: Initial Consolidation Preliminary Supply (PSY): The first sign that sellers are entering the market. A noticeable rally is slowing down, and buying momentum is weakening. Automatic Reaction (AR): After reaching PSY, a sudden drop occurs as sellers take over, and the market establishes a new trading range. Selling Climax (SC): This is where the heavy selling starts to slow down, but not without a significant price dip. SC often forms the bottom of the trading range. Phase B: Distribution and Testing Secondary Test (ST): After the AR, price revisits the upper bound of the range, but it doesn’t exceed the highs of the PSY. This forms a peak in the market that further confirms the range. Sign of Weakness (SOW): Sellers begin to control the market, leading to a lower high or weak rallies within the range. Upthrust (UT) in Phase B: The market attempts one final push above the established range, trying to trap buyers into believing that an upward breakout will occur. However, this rally fails, forming a Last Point of Supply (LPSY) at the peak of the market. LPSY and Distribution Completion LPSY (Last Point of Supply) is a clear signal of market exhaustion. The final upward test (UT) fails, and this typically triggers the start of a sharper decline. After LPSY, the price starts heading downwards aggressively, signaling that the distribution phase is nearing completion and the market is ready to enter a markdown phase (bearish). Key Wyckoff Levels in the Chart: Resistance Level (BC Distribution): Around 19,962.5, marking the upper boundary of the range. This is the price level where the distribution occurred. Support Level (AR Distribution): At 19,760.1, marking the lower boundary of the consolidation range. This is where buyers briefly took control before sellers resumed dominance. 2. Elliott Wave Analysis: Bearish Wave Count The chart appears to be using Elliott Wave theory to predict the next market movement. The wave count indicates: Wave Count Breakdown Wave 1: An initial bearish impulse wave down, marking the first sign of a reversal. Wave 2: A corrective move upward, likely reflecting an ABC pattern where price briefly retraces before continuing downward. Wave 3: The next significant downward wave, usually the strongest and longest in an impulse wave pattern. At this point, the market is expected to continue into Wave 4 and Wave 5 for further downside: Wave 4: A smaller corrective move upward before the final push lower. Wave 5: The final bearish wave, confirming the completion of the full Elliott wave cycle. Invalidation Points in Elliott Wave The Wave 4 invalidation point is highlighted at 19,322.9. If price retraces to this level or below, the current wave count will be invalidated, and the overall bearish structure will be reconsidered. There is an invalidity threshold at 20,064.9 that indicates if price rises beyond this, the bearish Elliott wave count might be invalidated. 3. Fibonacci Levels: Key Retracement Points The use of Fibonacci retracement levels is another layer to support potential reversal points in the market. Here’s the breakdown: 0.786 Fibonacci Retracement: Positioned at 20,007.6, this is a crucial resistance level. Typically, the 0.786 retracement level acts as a strong reversal zone, indicating that price is likely to reject this area and continue downward. 0.236 and 0.272 Fibonacci Levels: These represent short-term retracement levels. The market seems to have respected these levels in smaller corrective phases, indicating that minor pullbacks will likely occur around these levels before a deeper drop. 4. Harmonic Pattern: Potential Gartley or Bat Pattern There is a harmonic pattern in play, likely a Gartley or Bat pattern. Here's the possible interpretation: The 0.786 retracement level plays a key role here, acting as the pivotal level for the harmonic pattern completion. Typically, these patterns show a significant reversal upon completion, which aligns with the current price rejection at this zone. This suggests a bearish continuation once the pattern is completed, reinforcing the Wyckoff and Elliott Wave analysis. 5. Other Key Market Levels and Indicators POC (Point of Control): At 19,423.5, this marks a critical area where the most volume has been traded. Price action near the POC could act as a magnet, pulling price back towards this level for a retest. W Close: Around 19,483.5, which may refer to a key weekly close level. These are typically significant for institutional traders and can act as support/resistance. These levels, combined with volume, should be watched closely for signs of either a breakout or breakdown. 6. Future Price Movement Forecast Based on the analysis of Wyckoff, Elliott Wave, and Fibonacci levels, the expected price movement is as follows: Potential Rejection from LPSY and 0.786 Level: The price is likely to reject the 20,007.6 Fibonacci level and LPSY, marking the end of the upthrust and initiating a further decline. Downward Elliott Wave Completion: After the rejection, the next bearish wave (Wave 3) is expected to continue, potentially targeting the 19,400-19,300 range. This would align with the SOW (Sign of Weakness) identified in Phase B of the Wyckoff structure. Corrective Move (Wave 4): A minor upward correction could occur after Wave 3, targeting intermediate Fibonacci levels (0.236 or 0.272). However, this correction will likely be short-lived before continuing downward. Final Push Down (Wave 5): The final wave should push prices lower toward the 19,322.9 invalidation point, completing the Elliott wave cycle and confirming the Wyckoff markdown phase. Conclusion The analysis across multiple methodologies points to a bearish outlook. The price is currently in a Wyckoff distribution phase, where a failure at the LPSY level and rejection from the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement indicates that further downside is expected. Elliott Wave theory supports this with a bearish wave count, targeting a continuation of downward price action after a short correction.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Short
by spacedevil
8