DownTrending Nasdaq is showing retracement from major support.DownTrending Nasdaq is showing retracement from major support.
USTEC trade ideas
NASDAQ 100 Feb 27th Below are some general, educational ideas on how traders often approach markets under conditions like these. This is not financial advice—simply a high‐level look at potential strategies, risk‐management considerations, and scenarios based on the previous technical report. Always do your own due diligence and consider professional advice for your specific situation.
1. Short‐Term “Oversold Bounce” Play
• Rationale: On the Daily and 4H charts, the RSI/Stochastics and Bollinger Bands all suggest near‐term oversold conditions. When a market is oversold, a relief bounce often occurs—even within a downtrend.
• Possible Approach:
1. Entry: Some traders will look for intraday bullish signals (a strong reversal candle, bullish divergence on lower timeframes, or a break/retest of minor resistance) around the 20,200–20,500 zone.
2. Targets: Potential short‐term rebound levels near:
• 21,000 (initial pivot/confluence of 4H Fib & round number)
• 21,300–21,400 (Daily Ichimoku or 4H cloud base, stronger overhead supply)
3. Stop‐Loss / Invalidation:
• Placed below the recent swing low (~20,500) or below the 200‐day SMA (~20,264). If price definitively breaks those on a closing basis, it can signal that the bounce attempt is failing.
• Risk: If the market continues sharply lower, oversold can remain oversold. A deeper flush is possible if we lose key supports.
2. “Sell the Rally” Within a Short‐Term Downtrend
• Rationale: The Daily and 4H structures are in a confirmed short‐term downtrend (lower highs/lower lows). Traders who believe the market has further to fall might look to short near overhead resistance.
• Possible Approach:
1. Entry: Wait for a bounce into known resistance or Fib retracement zones on the 4H or Daily chart:
• ~21,000–21,100 (minor)
• ~21,300–21,400 (major supply area / daily cloud)
2. Confirmation: Look for bearish candlestick patterns, a failed retest, or negative divergences on short timeframes to signal rally exhaustion.
3. Targets: Could be fresh lows below ~20,500 or deeper daily/weekly support at ~19,500–20,000.
4. Stop‐Loss / Invalidation: A sustained close above the daily Ichimoku cloud or prior pivot highs (~21,400–21,500) would indicate the short‐term trend shift might be reversing back bullish.
• Risk: A strong short‐covering rally can quickly stop out short positions if the broader weekly uptrend reasserts itself.
3. Longer‐Term Positioning Near Key Weekly Support
• Rationale: The monthly and weekly charts remain in a long‐term uptrend. Some position traders/investors view pullbacks into major weekly levels as potential accumulation zones.
• Possible Approach:
1. Key Level: ~19,500–19,600 is the last major weekly swing low. If price ever re‐tests that zone, it’s a critical decision area.
2. Confirmation: Wait for a weekly bullish reversal candle (e.g., a hammer, bullish engulfing) or a break back above the 10‐week SMA.
3. Stop‐Loss / Invalidation: A weekly close below ~19,500 could signal a deeper structural breakdown.
4. Targets: Over the longer horizon, a rebound from weekly support might aim for retests of all‐time highs or upper monthly fib extensions (e.g., 24,000+).
• Risk: If the weekly uptrend fails and breaks below ~19,500, it can cascade into a more pronounced corrective phase.
4. Hedge or Manage Existing Long Positions
• Rationale: If you’ve been holding longer‐term bullish positions, you might want to hedge part of it during a short‐term downswing.
• Possible Approach:
• Options: Buying puts or put spreads to limit downside risk or selling covered calls to collect premium if you expect sideways to down movement.
• Futures: Small short futures/CFD positions to offset some exposure.
• Risk: Over‐hedging can cut into upside gains if the market rebounds strongly.
5. Patience / Sidelines
• Rationale: If the technical picture is uncertain—and you don’t have a strong directional edge—sitting on the sidelines and observing is a perfectly valid play. You can wait for more clarity or for the market to confirm a reversal/breakdown before committing capital.
• Risk: Missing out on a sudden reversal or failing to catch the next leg if it rebounds quickly. But if uncertainty is high, waiting for a clearer signal can preserve capital.
General Guidelines & Risk Management
1. Align With Your Timeframe:
• Short‐term scalps (4H or lower) require tight stops and nimble trading.
• Swing trades might look to daily/weekly structure for bigger moves.
2. Watch Volatility:
• ATR on daily/4H has risen. Expect larger intraday swings; position size accordingly.
3. Use Stop‐Losses:
• The market has shown it can move quickly in either direction lately. Protective stops or mental exit levels are crucial.
4. Monitor Macro Drivers:
• Economic data, interest rate shifts, or major earnings releases can override technical signals short term.
5. Be Prepared for Whipsaw:
• When multiple timeframes conflict (monthly/weekly bullish vs. daily/4H bearish), the market can give false breaks or frequent direction changes.
Disclaimer:
This outline is for educational purposes only, reflecting common approaches traders might take. It does not constitute financial advice. Always consider your own objectives, risk tolerance, and potentially consult a financial professional when making investment decisions.
USNAS100 Breakdown: Bearish Momentum Confirmed Below 21,900!USNAS100 Technical Analysis – February 24, 2025
Our previous analysis View Here highlighted the 22,150 pivot zone as a critical decision point for NAS100. The price failed to hold above this level and dropped as expected, confirming a bearish movement.
Current Market Outlook:
The price has broken below the 21,900 pivot zone, indicating bearish dominance.
As long as NAS100 trades below 21900 - 21810, the bearish trend remains active.
A further decline toward 21560 and 21390 is expected.
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: 21900 | 22100 | 22292
Pivot: 21800
Support: 21560 | 21390 | 21215
Directional Bias:
The bearish trend remains active as long as NAS100 trades below 21810 and 21900. A 4H close below 21560 will confirm further downside toward 21390.
🚀 Will NAS100 hold this support, or is more downside coming? Drop your thoughts! 👇🔥
Short IDEA for US100 At 15 Minute Time FrameMarket has touched the 0.618 Fib Level and there are chances that it goes down further.
This is a risky trade as there is no trend but chances of trend.
0.15% R:R
SL:21074
Entry: Current Price: 20852
TP: 20630
NAS100 BUY ANALYSIS SMART MONEY CONCEPT Here on Nas100 price has form a a demand around area of 20676.30 which is likely to continue moving up as more traders will likely to come and push the price up so trader should go for long with expect profit target of 21349.74 and 21946.22 . Use money management
NASDAQ WILL GO HIGHER, BUY AFTER PULLBACKFundamentals
Recent economic data indicates mixed sentiments in the tech sector, with rising interest rates and concerns about valuations weighing on growth stocks. However, optimism surrounds potential technological advancements, such as AI and renewable energy sectors, driving long-term bullish expectations.
Technicals
After the bullish spike following the CPI inflation reading, the price is expected to retrace to the 20,865–20,968 range, which corresponds to two key Fibonacci levels. The 20,968 level also aligns with a demand zone. Entry levels are: 20,865 (conservative) or more aggressive at 20,968. Before entering long, it is important to see confirmation of bullish pressure...
In terms of target, I think we will see new highs, but take profit partially and sistematically along the way..
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US100-bias short Bullish indications:
Bullish inside bar candle in day time frame.
Resistance broken at 21233
Bearish indications:
Pair has made three black crows candles previously.
Making LLLH in 4 hr time frame.
in 2 hr : MA21 is getting respected which is a strong bearish signal , i should exit the trade immediately possible before it hits my SL .
4 hr : MA 21 is crossing over 200 indicates bearish
1 hr : strong bearish engulfer candle from resistance
Trade plan bias short @21228
SL:21342
TP1:21118
TP2:21025
Long US100, NQ, NAS100Long, it will tp in 1 week, great risk to reward trade, swing trade.
Use proper risk management
Looks like good trade.
Lets monitor.
Use proper risk management.
Disclaimer: only idea, not advice.
NAS100 - Nasdaq, won't it go below 20k?!The index is below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its medium-term ascending channel. If the index rises towards the suggested zones, we can look for the next Nasdaq sell-off.
The composition of investors’ financial assets from 1990 to 2025 reveals shifts in the allocation of equities, bonds, and cash. Currently, the share of equities in investment portfolios has reached an all-time high of 54%, indicating a growing preference for the stock market among investors.
Conversely, the share of bonds and cash has declined to 18% and 13%, respectively, suggesting reduced interest in holding fixed-income assets and liquidity. At present, more than half of investors’ financial assets are concentrated in equities, which could reflect optimism about the market’s future growth.
This situation calls for increased caution from the Federal Reserve and the Trump administration, as a significant portion of American households’ surplus income is now directed toward stocks. As a result, any downturn in the U.S. stock market could have more severe consequences for the public than before.
Scott Bassett, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, responded to a recent survey indicating that Americans want President Donald Trump to focus more on reducing inflation. He stated that he is confident consumer price inflation in the United States will decline throughout the year.
In an interview with CBS and Face the Nation, Bassett defended Trump’s economic policies, emphasizing that the president is pursuing a comprehensive approach that includes tariffs, deregulation, and a gradual reduction in energy costs.
Meanwhile, following weaker-than-expected preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for February and a decline in the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index, investors are now pricing in approximately 60 basis points of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve for this year. This projection is 10 basis points higher than the forecasts from the December dot plot.
Market pricing indicates that traders still expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in June, particularly after the release of Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data. However, with Trump ramping up tariff threats against key U.S. trading partners such as China, Canada, and Mexico, outlining a clear economic roadmap has become more challenging. Tariff impositions pose a serious risk of reigniting inflation, prompting many Federal Reserve officials who have recently expressed their views to adopt a “wait and see” approach.
This week, market attention will once again turn to employment data, as investors eagerly anticipate the release of the February Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. Other key events include the preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) estimates for the Eurozone and the ISM U.S. Manufacturing PMI on Monday, the ADP Employment Report and ISM Services PMI on Wednesday, and the weekly jobless claims data on Thursday. Additionally, the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decision on Thursday will be closely watched, with economists expecting another interest rate cut.
NAS100!Nasdaq is clearly in either the start or the end of a consolidation
The trend is still up.
Trade with care use a stop loss
IS EVERONE SHORTING?Take out the highs, aligning with the current momentum and liquidity dynamics.
Breaking more downside, we might slip 200 and begin bearish territory.
US100We can attempt to buy US100 from specified level as it make HL , also there is no bearish divergence occur indicate that it moves upward.
SL , TP mention in chart.
TP FILLED ON NASDAQCouple minutes ago, I posted to sell NASDAQ, and now the market reached our TP.
Follow for more trades!
Nasdaq trading insights: 27-Feb-2025Nasdaq trading insights: Not signals, but informative zones to aid your decision-making. Please note: These zones are not trading advice. Use them as a starting point for your own analysis.
NAS100 Breakout Setup – Yesterday’s High & LowChart & Levels:
Buy Stop: Placed at the previous day’s high (see the green line on the chart).
Sell Stop: Placed at the previous day’s low (red line on the chart).
Idea & Rationale:
I’m using a simple breakout strategy that allows price action to confirm direction before I commit. If NAS100 breaks above yesterday’s high, I’ll go long, expecting bullish momentum. If it drops below yesterday’s low, I’ll go short, anticipating further downside.
Trade Management:
Stop Loss: Use recent swing highs/lows or an ATR-based buffer to avoid getting wicked out.
Take Profit: Aim for a minimum 1:2 risk-to-reward ratio, adjusting as the market evolves.
Position Size: Maintain proper risk management; only risk a small percentage of your account on each trade.
Why This Setup?
Clarity: Using the previous day’s high/low is a straightforward way to spot potential breakouts.
Volatility Capture: NAS100 often makes sizable moves around session opens (especially NY). This setup attempts to catch the momentum.
Risk Control: Waiting for a breakout confirmation helps reduce false entries in choppy markets.
Key Notes:
Watch out for major news events (economic releases, tech sector earnings) that could trigger sharp moves.
Keep an eye on the overall market sentiment; if there’s a strong risk-on or risk-off environment, that can impact NAS100 direction.
Nasdaq market analysis: 26-Feb-2025Good morning! Here's your daily Nasdaq market analysis. Learn, grow, and trade wisely.
Looks Potentially like some relief ralliesLooking at the market holistically, it would appear like opportunity will present in DXY weakening, and metals again this week, looks like the week might play out as a relief rally for S&P and NASDAQ as both sentiment and fear are at extremes.
US100 MARKET OUTLOOK Price may fall back to a pullback resistance of 20349.9 as we continue to see a sell pressure being exerted on lower timeframe prices. A buy opportunity is envisaged if we’d get a bounce off the pullback support level.
NAS100 Technical Analysis by TradingDONThe red box I marked highlights the area of squeezed liquidity. A bearish candle closing below it and the trendline will guide my focus towards the target of the 4hS purple box at 21.586. Let's embrace the challenge and strive for our goals!
Nasdaq needs a decent correction in order to gain strengthI'm not calling for a crash, but generally when markets keep pushing higher, it needs to cool off, the problem with bulls is that they have no restraint, bears are way more tactical and when bears make a move, it is fast, furious and a lot of complacent bulls get slaughtered....I expect nasdaq to reach their 0.618/0.5 retracement levels and if structure remains in tact, markets should push higher....If the correction had happened much earlier, there wouldn't be so much fear in the market....I don't expect serious buyers to step in unless nasdaq is available at more discount....You will see some short covering in between, but don't confuse that for serious buying.....There is no bottom wick in the daily candle, so basically, bulls didn't even make an attempt, also double top on daily, mini uptrend channel break, so try to focus on shorts on the way down...I could be wrong, but I don't think buyers will have much advantage unless it reaches lower levels.....
US100: Weekly Bullish, Short-Term Bearish—Two Key ScenariosThe US100 (Nasdaq) remains bullish on the higher (Weekly/Daily) timeframes, but short-term (4H/2H) indicators suggest a correction or pullback. This creates a split bias: either the market finds support and resumes the uptrend, or it breaks key levels and continues lower.
• Support Zones:
• 21,580–21,400 (immediate short-term supports)
• 21,200–21,000 (major daily support, 100 SMA area)
• Weekly Support extends down to ~19,500–21,000 on deeper pullbacks
• Resistance Zones:
• 21,900–22,000 (key intraday resistance + pivot)
• 22,200–22,300 (recent peak & bearish order block)
Scenarios
• Scenario A (Bullish Continuation)
• Look for price to hold 21,580–21,400 support and reclaim ~21,700–21,800 on higher timeframes.
• Aggressive traders may front-run a bounce near 21,580 (tight stops below 21,530).
• Conservative traders might wait for a Daily close above ~21,900 with momentum (RSI >50, bullish MACD).
• Invalidation: A daily close below ~21,000 could trigger further downside.
• Scenario B (Bearish Reversal / Deeper Correction)
• If price fails at 21,700–21,900 or breaks below 21,580 decisively, watch for a move to 21,400 or even 21,000.
• Aggressive shorts may enter on a retest of 21,700–21,800 (broken support → resistance) or a clean break below 21,580.
• More conservative bears might wait for a Daily close under 21,000–21,200 and a confirmed downtrend on momentum indicators.
• Invalidation: A strong 4H close back above 21,900–22,000 would weaken the bearish case.
Risk Management / Disclaimer
Use stops, manage position sizes, and monitor macro news. This post is for educational purposes only—not financial advice.
NASDAQ Approaching the ultimate 4hour MA200 buy entryNasdaq / US100 is trading inside a Channel Up, which is currently on a pullback.
This correction is approaching the pattern's bottom which happens to be on the 4hour MA200. The last two such contacts have been buy opportunities.
Also the 4hour RSI is oversold at 30.00 and the last two times it was on this level, they were again buy opportunities.
Buy and target the upper Resistance at 22230.
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Is the Nasdaq Breaking Out?The Nasdaq-100 has consolidated for about two months, and now some traders may expect a breakout.
The first pattern on today’s chart is Friday’s candle. It represented an intraday all-time high, a daily closing high and a weekly closing high. Could those new highs lead to more new highs?
Next, a series of support levels have held since mid-January. The index first held a weekly low from November 27. It next gapped down on DeepSeek worries (January 27), only to form a higher weekly low that held the following Monday when tariff news briefly hit sentiment. After that, the February 7 weekly close held when inflation was higher than expected (on February 12).
Those incrementally higher lows may suggest that support has nudged upward.
Third, a falling trendline along the peaks of December and late January has been breached.
Fourth, MACD is rising. Prices have additionally refused to stay below the 50-day simple moving average, the 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) or the 8-day EMA.
Finally, you have the calendar event of Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA earnings on February 26. This potential catalyst will be followed by the chip giant’s GTC conference March 17-21, which may support enthusiasm toward AI. (This year incidentally introduces a “Quantum Day” on March 20.)
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